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[speculawyer]

The more the media keeps attacking Hillary, the easier it will be for the public to sympathize her.

That only works if the public feels that the media is being unfair. With this email thing, no one fully knows what is going on. The right-wing portrays her as the devil but that is par for the course. The left is kinda in wait & see mode.

So we need some resolution or at least clarity on what is going on before she recovers (or sinks).

 

[Ecotic]

This email thing will go on for months. She has to testify in October before Congress and it's all they'll want to focus on.

 

[Bowdz]

All I can say is after we get the FBI's final take, State's final take, the DoJ's final take, and Hilldawg testifies before the House committee, and she is found to have done nothing illegal, than we should all agree that she has survived more fire than any other presidential nominee and is pretty goddamn fit to be president (all this goes out the window if there is substantive wrong doing found). Can anyone think about any other president candidate dealing with so much shit this early before the election?

 

[Hopfrog]

All I can say is after we get the FBI's final take, State's final take, the DoJ's final take, and Hilldawg testifies before the House committee, and she is found to have done nothing illegal, than we should all agree that she has survived more fire than any other presidential nominee and is pretty goddamn fit to be president (all this goes out the window if there is substantive wrong doing found). Can anyone think about any other president candidate dealing with so much shit this early before the election?

Well, Debs had been in jail for a year and a half before the election of 1920 - but I realize that is a bit of an exceptional circumstance.

 

[RustyNails]

This email thing will go on for months. She has to testify in October before Congress and it's all they'll want to focus on.

October this year or 2016?

 

[Ecotic]

October this year or 2016?

This coming October.

 

[Bowdz]

October this year or 2016?

This year although I'm sure Gowdey will claim that she didn't answer all of his questions and try to get her to come back. The GOP would love to have Hilldawg testifying as the October surprise.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

How can she and Biden be ahead of Bush in Ohio but losing to him in Pennsylvania. None of it makes sense.

 

[NeoXChaos]

All I can say is after we get the FBI's final take, State's final take, the DoJ's final take, and Hilldawg testifies before the House committee, and she is found to have done nothing illegal, than we should all agree that she has survived more fire than any other presidential nominee and is pretty goddamn fit to be president (all this goes out the window if there is substantive wrong doing found). Can anyone think about any other president candidate dealing with so much shit this early before the election?

Most important. DOJ and State are under Kerry and Lynch. I am sure they believe Clinton's word. FBI is a wildcard.

 

[Yellowtail]

How can she and Biden be ahead of Bush in Ohio but losing to him in Pennsylvania. None of it makes sense.

One reason: In 2012 voters were 78% white in PA. In the Q poll the voter makeup is 86% white...

 

[PhoenixDark]

I knew the poll skewing would begin. Both sides really are the same.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

I knew the poll skewing would begin. Both sides really are the same.

If you can explain how someone can be winning Ohio but losing Pennsylvania I'd love to hear it.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

PD's trolling isn't even fun anymore. its just kind of annoying.

 

[PhoenixDark]

PD's trolling isn't even fun anymore. its just kind of annoying.

I'm lost here. I figured I'd be all on the Hillary boat now, troll wise, only to ramp up the concern trolling around next June or so. But Hillary's implosion has left me with no material.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I'm lost here. I figured I'd be all on the Hillary boat now, troll wise, only to ramp up the concern trolling around next June or so. But Hillary's implosion has left me with no material.

What implosion?

Nothing short of her ordering the Benghazi attack from her private server is going to doom her. The Clinton's are not like regular people. Bill was impeached and survived. Like NYC its been a constant stream of bad news for her camp and nothing written on her rivals except for her.

 

[pigeon]

I'm lost here. I figured I'd be all on the Hillary boat now, troll wise, only to ramp up the concern trolling around next June or so. But Hillary's implosion has left me with no material.

Should've done a face turn and started hardcore poll unskewing to argue that Hillary leads in 50 states. Dive into crosstabs and start arguing that the very liberal/somewhat liberal breakdown is wrong compared to 2012.

Seriously, I'm not too worried about these polls yet. Hillary's playing defensively and waiting out the email stuff. No surprise her numbers are sliding -- there's nothing positive coming out of her camp. But, again, we've got over a year to go.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm lost here. I figured I'd be all on the Hillary boat now, troll wise, only to ramp up the concern trolling around next June or so. But Hillary's implosion has left me with no material.

There could be some good trump trolling but Y2K kinda doing a version of it. You could go with the more serious, "trumps really tapped into something" "His immigration plan is popular with non-elitists ", there's people earnestly saying that though, in OT.

Idk there really isn't a lot of good stuff here. Your losing walker too.

 

[RustyNails]

I'm lost here. I figured I'd be all on the Hillary boat now, troll wise, only to ramp up the concern trolling around next June or so. But Hillary's implosion has left me with no material.

Hillary imploded? When?

An implosion would make her poll at 5%. She is still leading all her primary rivals as well as all the GOP jokers. As a Hillaryis44 admin you would know that nothing short of a Nixon tapes like scandal can take the Clintons down, and when she willingly gave up the server along with every other USB storage that should indicate that her legal counsel is confident. Otherwise there would have been a hissy fit by the clintonites, rather the talking point is "politics as usual".

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

The last Q poll didn't have party breakdown that I can find but the new one does.

 

[PhoenixDark]

There could be some good trump trolling but Y2K kinda doing a version of it. You could go with the more serious, "trumps really tapped into something" "His immigration plan is popular with non-elitists "

Idk there really isn't a lot of good stuff here. Your losing walker too.

Nah I'm still firmly in the Walker camp. Walker isn't doing good right now...but no one is doing good outside of Trump and Carson. Neither of whom will win a single primary. Walker has the money and clout to last, and he will definitely finish strong in Iowa. This is a marathon not a sprint, and he's well positioned for one (alongside Cruz, Bush, and Rubio).

 

[NYCmetsfan]

http://thefederalist.com/2015/08/20/john-kasich-on-roe-v-wade-we-live-with-the-law-of-the-land/

there goes the Kasich

 

[speculawyer]

All I can say is after we get the FBI's final take, State's final take, the DoJ's final take, and Hilldawg testifies before the House committee, and she is found to have done nothing illegal, than we should all agree that she has survived more fire than any other presidential nominee and is pretty goddamn fit to be president (all this goes out the window if there is substantive wrong doing found). Can anyone think about any other president candidate dealing with so much shit this early before the election?

Bill Clinton.

(Mostly sex scandals though. )

 

[Cheebo]

http://thefederalist.com/2015/08/20/john-kasich-on-roe-v-wade-we-live-with-the-law-of-the-land/

there goes the Kasich

I am glad the base has no interest in him. He could be pretty formidable in the general.

 

[HylianTom]

http://thefederalist.com/2015/08/20/john-kasich-on-roe-v-wade-we-live-with-the-law-of-the-land/

there goes the Kasich

Oh, this is great news.

He's done. He won't get near the ticket.

Now it's Rubio's turn to self-disqualify.

Edit: the only ticket that could've made me sweat a bit was some combination of Rubio and Kasich. This really may be the best race news all day.

 

[speculawyer]

http://thefederalist.com/2015/08/20/john-kasich-on-roe-v-wade-we-live-with-the-law-of-the-land/

there goes the Kasich

He's playing the long game. If he managed to pull off an upset, he could be dangerous in the general. He could also be a VP pick by someone that would want to moderate their ticket a bit.

 

[ivysaur12]

if everyone self-destructs, does anyone actually self-destruct

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Another inconsistency in the Q poll is that there's no conceivable way she would be beating Jeb and Trump by at least 6 points nationally (CNN poll) while losing Penn and Florida by these margins. State polls have never led nation polls (the adage is the other way around) so unless she's winning California and NY with 90% of the vote the numbers simply don't add up.

 

[speculawyer]

if everyone self-destructs, does anyone actually self-destruct

In my view, they pretty much all have already. So, yeah, they all get a Mulligan and we proceed from there.

 

[NeoXChaos]

What is a better indicator for how the general election is headed? State polls or general election polls? early voting vs election day voting?

I found this:

@jonlipe

Best answers to any H2H poll:
1) Look at averages
2) The election is 15 mos away
3) Has no predictive power this far out

@HarryEnten

Agree on all of this... but perception does matter if trying to argue electability.

 

[speculawyer]

If I were a GOP establishment person, I would call Romney and ask if he would reconsider.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hillary is losing to Trump in Florida and Pennsylvania but winning against everyone in Ohio?

Yeah forgive me if I'm not buying into these polls.

 

[pigeon]

What is a better indicator for how the general election is headed? State polls or general election polls? early voting vs election day voting?

I found this:

Yes, Election Day voting is the best indicator to how an election will play out.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going D no matter what the polls say. Ohio and Florida are fair game. If Walker can't win Wisconsin then I dont know why he is even touting his Midwestern appeal.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Yes, Election Day voting is the best indicator to how an election will play out.

Whoa.

 

[Yellowtail]

Another inconsistency in the Q poll is that there's no conceivable way she would be beating Jeb and Trump by at least 6 points nationally (CNN poll) while losing Penn and Florida by these margins. State polls have never led nation polls (the adage is the other way around) so unless she's winning California and NY with 90% of the vote the numbers simply don't add up.

Also there's no way the Marquette WI poll and the Quinnipiac poll can both be right.

And out of the two I'm going to trust Wisconsin's gold standard pollster (similar to Selzer in Iowa). Clinton is +5 on Jeb, and +10 on Walker there, which confirms the vast majority of polls that show she's running close to Obama's 2012 numbers right now. After a barrage of negative coverage over emailgate that's not a bad place to be.

 

[Cheebo]

If I were a GOP establishment person, I would call Romney and ask if he would reconsider.

Kasich would do great, and could potentially beat Hillary. The base would never vote for him in the primary though.

 

[Lucky Forward]

What is Jimmy Carter's biggest regret?

Asked whether he has any regrets, as he looks back on his career, Carter admitted he's second-guessed his response to the Iranian hostage crisis, in which 52 Americans were held captive by Iranian revolutionaries for 444 days between 1979 and 1981. The incident was blamed, in part, for Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan in the 1980 election.

"I wish I had sent one more helicopter to get the hostages, and we would have rescued them, and I would have been reelected," he said.

Yeah...that's a bit of wishful thinking. The plan for Operation Eagle Claw had a lot more problems besides being one helicopter short.

 

[pigeon]

Whoa.

If true.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Jeb doubles down on using "anchor babies" as people who donated millions to him set themselves on fire:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jeb-bush-anchor-babies-not-offensive-121565.html?hp=l2_4

 

[Cheebo]

Yes, Election Day voting is the best indicator to how an election will play out.

Al Gore wishes that was true.

 

[pigeon]

Al Gore wishes that was true.

No prediction is perfect.

 

[ivysaur12]

Al Gore wishes that was true.

Ha ha ha

:-(

 

[RustyNails]

What is Jimmy Carter's biggest regret?



Yeah...that's a bit of wishful thinking. The plan for Operation Eagle Claw had a lot more problems besides being one helicopter short.

Like what? iirc it was Carter who told them to have a backup chopper, and it was a wise call. If he had one more, the mission could have worked out.

 

[dramatis]

Maybe you guys need a betting pool on the order of Republican dropouts instead.

 

[Plinko]

Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are going D no matter what the polls say. Ohio and Florida are fair game. If Walker can't win Wisconsin then I dont know why he is even touting his Midwestern appeal.

He's getting crushed in Michigan, too.

 

[Plinko]

Nah I'm still firmly in the Walker camp. Walker isn't doing good right now...but no one is doing good outside of Trump and Carson. Neither of whom will win a single primary. Walker has the money and clout to last, and he will definitely finish strong in Iowa. This is a marathon not a sprint, and he's well positioned for one (alongside Cruz, Bush, and Rubio).

Because money and clout are some things Trump doesn't have?

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Because money and clout are some things Trump doesn't have?

I still wonder if he will really spend the money like he says he will.

 

[ivysaur12]

He's getting crushed in Michigan, too.

So much for that Midwestern Republican Revival!

Democrats just need to be on point with their gubernatorial choices in 2018 in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois, and Michigan. And a host of other states. But those are ones that should be easily winnable.

 

[HylianTom]

One other polling thing that has me a bit skeptical: CNN has Hillary running a pretty large gender gap.

among female voters only..
Clinton 60, Trump 37
Clinton 59, Bush 37
Clinton 60, Fiorina 39

Obama won women by about 12%, which was already pretty damn impressive, so I'm struggling to believe that an increase among female voters would be so huge.

 

[NeoXChaos]

One other polling thing that has me a bit skeptical: CNN has Hillary running a pretty large gender gap.

among female voters only..
Clinton 60, Trump 37
Clinton 59, Bush 37
Clinton 60, Fiorina 39

Obama won women by about 12%, which was already pretty damn impressive, so I'm struggling to believe that an increase among female voters would be so huge.

A gender gap like that would be doomsday for the R's unless its a 90%-10% in NY and CA skewing.