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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Y

Yellowtail

Member
I'm about to ask her what she thinks of Scott Walker, but McCaskill has a question of her own. "What's Scott Brown up to these days?" I tell her that the last I heard he was appearing as a guest on a celebrity cruise and pushing diet pills.

"No! Who goes on a celebrity cruise ship to see Scott Brown?" she scoffs. "Do people even know who he is? Wow. He will do anything to show his body. It was so surreal, all of the women in the Senate used to talk about how he would figure out some way, every time he had a conversation, to work in something about his body. Like, 'I was on the treadmill in the gym this morning and I saw you on MSNBC,' or 'You know, I was running at lunch today and' — and he did it to all of us! We all compared notes."
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I love Claire McCaskill.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
A brutal day in the markets. We're flat for the year. I'm hoping the markets are just resting this year after being overextended for the past couple of years.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
HylianTom said:
One other polling thing that has me a bit skeptical: CNN has Hillary running a pretty large gender gap.

among female voters only..
Clinton 60, Trump 37
Clinton 59, Bush 37
Clinton 60, Fiorina 39

Obama won women by about 12%, which was already pretty damn impressive, so I'm struggling to believe that an increase among female voters would be so huge.
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Its almost as if attacking PP and spouting even more radical positions on abortion worsened their position. Truly a mystery.
 
L

Lucky Forward

Member
RustyNails said:
Like what? iirc it was Carter who told them to have a backup chopper, and it was a wise call. If he had one more, the mission could have worked out.
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The plan was incredibly complicated, and the army and navy forces involved didn't have the experience working together at carrying out a tightly coordinated mission like this.

http://mentalfloss.com/article/3052...-rescue-attempt-during-iranian-hostage-crisis
No one can fault the operation for not being complex enough. Under the cover of darkness, eight navy helicopters were to fly from the U.S.S. Nimitz, based in the Arabian Sea, to “Desert One,” a secret staging area in central Iran picked by the CIA, where they were to meet up with U.S. Delta Forces aboard three C-130 transport planes flying in from Oman. Another three C-130 transport planes carrying 18,000 gallons of fuel for the helicopters were also supposed to land at Desert One. The eight Navy helicopters would then refuel and fly the Delta Forces to “Desert Two,” another spot about 50 miles south of Teheran, where they would conceal the helicopters and hide out during the day.

On the second night, the Delta Forces would board six trucks driven by Iranian CIA operatives, drive into downtown Teheran, storm the U.S. embassy, free the hostages, and transport everyone to a nearby soccer field, where they would be picked up by the Navy helicopters flying in from Desert Two. The Navy helicopters would then fly the freed hostages and Delta Forces to Manzariyeh airfield, about 60 miles southwest of Teheran, which was supposed to be secured in the interim by U.S. Army Rangers arriving aboard C-141s. Everyone would then board the C-141s for final extraction to Egypt (the helicopters would be abandoned and destroyed). Easy!
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Eagle_Claw#Aftermath
Retired Chief of Naval Operations Admiral James L. Holloway III led the official investigation in 1980 into the causes of the operation's failure on behalf of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. The Holloway Report primarily cited deficiencies in mission planning, command and control, and inter-service operability, and provided a catalyst to reorganize the Department of Defense, and the Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986.

The various services' failure to cohesively work together prompted the establishment of a new multi-service organization several years later. The United States Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) became operational on 16 April 1987. Each service now has its own special operations forces under USSOCOM's overall control.
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B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
watershed said:
Jeb "anchor babies isn't an offensive term" Bush is really itching to be Mitt "binders full of women" Romney 2.0.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/.../08/20/jeb-bush-anchor-babies-isnt-offensive/
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Benders full of women?

jqZiOYp.gif
 
Metaphoreus

Metaphoreus

This is semantics, and nothing more
HylianTom said:
One other polling thing that has me a bit skeptical: CNN has Hillary running a pretty large gender gap.

among female voters only..
Clinton 60, Trump 37
Clinton 59, Bush 37
Clinton 60, Fiorina 39

Obama won women by about 12%, which was already pretty damn impressive, so I'm struggling to believe that an increase among female voters would be so huge.
Click to expand...

That doesn't really strike me as implausible. I think the "first woman president" thing could easily draw more woman supporters for Clinton than Obama. People have all kinds of reasons for voting the way they do.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Metaphoreus said:
That doesn't really strike me as implausible. I think the "first woman president" thing could easily draw more woman supporters for Clinton than Obama. People have all kinds of reasons for voting the way they do.
Click to expand...

Clinton would have to handily win white women to generate numbers like that. I don't see it happening unless the GOP really really fucks up (ie full blown and blatant sexist campaign against Hillary).
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Quinn showing Romney beating Obama by 2 at around this time in 2011. They had similar results in Florida where every 3 months there would be huge shifts between Obama and Romney. Very chaotic polling with 10 points swings within the span of months.

dghzOiu.png
 
S

speculawyer

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Clinton would have to handily win white women to generate numbers like that. I don't see it happening unless the GOP really really fucks up (ie full blown and blatant sexist campaign against Hillary).
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She might. I think there could be a lot of women who will say they will vote GOP but vote Hillary in the privacy of the voting booth. First woman president and a president that won't ban abortion even in cases of rape & incest matter.
 
S

Slippers

Member
Krugman on "Trumpism":

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/trump-in-a-box

081915krugman2-blog480.png


"And then there’s the empty box. Once upon a time that box was filled by southern Democrats, who preserved Jim Crow while supporting the New Deal. But they’ve all moved over to the GOP now, and in the process become anti-social-insurance. But there are plenty of voters who want Social Security and Medicare for people who look like them, but not those other people. And at some level Trump is catering to that unserved population."

More at the link.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Slippers said:
Krugman on "Trumpism":

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/trump-in-a-box

081915krugman2-blog480.png


"And then there’s the empty box. Once upon a time that box was filled by southern Democrats, who preserved Jim Crow while supporting the New Deal. But they’ve all moved over to the GOP now, and in the process become anti-social-insurance. But there are plenty of voters who want Social Security and Medicare for people who look like them, but not those other people. And at some level Trump is catering to that unserved population."

More at the link.
Click to expand...

Trump is proposing an idea that is represented nicely by "National Socialism" but Nazi Germany made that term unusable. There needs to be a nice replacement.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Another day, another "LOL Scott Walker" story: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...alking-about-a-teacher-who-asked-him-to-stop/

Basically, he keeps using a story about a Wisconsin teacher in his speeches. The problem?

But Sampson says in an email to The Associated Press that “I do not enjoy being associated with Walker’s political campaign.” She says Walker does “not have permission from me to use my story in this manner, and he still does not have my permission.”
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Yet, he continues to do so repeatedly.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I knew the poll skewing would begin. Both sides really are the same.
Click to expand...

Christ. These polls don't matter.

The only polls that do are the GOP primary ones and not because they're necessarily accurate but because they'll decide where the money flows (or stops flowing). That's it.

Most people don't give a shit about the Presidential polling right now so you're gonna get a skewed reading.

Just look at the hillary vs Trump numbers from like 2 months ago versus today. Did anyone back then even believe trump would get sub 40% of the vote as the GOP nominee back then? because if you did, you're a moron. The GOP will unite behind whoever the candidate is. Sure, depending on who it is could affect turnout, but not to that degree. Without a scandal post convention, every GOP candidate will get 42-43% no matter what, and that's being super liberal (probably closer to 45%).

But 2 months ago when polling firms were asking about Hillary versus Trump people were going "lol trump, really? Must be a joke question!" But not it's not a joke question and all those people who didn't know Trump was really going to run really is and the GOP is going to get behind him.

Furthermore, it's too far out. The only people answering polls on this are enthusiastic primary voters. Everyone else is checked out. And seeing as the Democrat primary is mostly a foregone conclusion and the GOP one is a giant circus that the world is watching, everything is going to skew GOP unless you spend a shit ton of money making sure your polling is a good representation.

That's why the Quinn poll can turn up 47% R. We know that number is wrong. Don't need to unskew shit. There is no battleground state where either party is 45%+. Come the fuck on. Getting a better representation is very costly, money wise, so it is what it is.

None of these matchups will matter until next year. None. The only polls that matter are the GOP Primary ones (and again, for where the money goes and nothing else except for Trump who needs none). Even the Dem primary polls are irrelevant. It's Hillary vs Bernie and no matter the polling the establishment isn't taking money away from Hillary so those polls are irrelevant.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Black Mamba said:
Christ. These polls don't matter.

The only polls that do are the GOP primary ones and not because they're necessarily accurate but because they'll decide where the money flows (or stops flowing). That's it.

Most people don't give a shit about the Presidential polling right now so you're gonna get a skewed reading.

Just look at the hillary vs Trump numbers from like 2 months ago versus today. Did anyone back then even believe trump would get sub 40% of the vote as the GOP nominee back then? because if you did, you're a moron. The GOP will unite behind whoever the candidate is. Sure, depending on who it is could affect turnout, but not to that degree. Without a scandal post convention, every GOP candidate will get 42-43% no matter what, and that's being super liberal (probably closer to 45%).

But 2 months ago when polling firms were asking about Hillary versus Trump people were going "lol trump, really? Must be a joke question!" But not it's not a joke question and all those people who didn't know Trump was really going to run really is and the GOP is going to get behind him.

Furthermore, it's too far out. The only people answering polls on this are enthusiastic primary voters. Everyone else is checked out. And seeing as the Democrat primary is mostly a foregone conclusion and the GOP one is a giant circus that the world is watching, everything is going to skew GOP unless you spend a shit ton of money making sure your polling is a good representation.

That's why the Quinn poll can turn up 47% R. We know that number is wrong. Don't need to unskew shit. There is no battleground state where either party is 45%+. Come the fuck on. Getting a better representation is very costly, money wise, so it is what it is.

None of these matchups will matter until next year. None. The only polls that matter are the GOP Primary ones (and again, for where the money goes and nothing else except for Trump who needs none). Even the Dem primary polls are irrelevant. It's Hillary vs Bernie and no matter the polling the establishment isn't taking money away from Hillary so those polls are irrelevant.
Click to expand...

and we are done. The OT Bernie/Trump threads have been getting numerous and ridiculous .
 
A

Abinash117

Member
Slippers said:
Krugman on "Trumpism":

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/trump-in-a-box

081915krugman2-blog480.png


"And then there’s the empty box. Once upon a time that box was filled by southern Democrats, who preserved Jim Crow while supporting the New Deal. But they’ve all moved over to the GOP now, and in the process become anti-social-insurance. But there are plenty of voters who want Social Security and Medicare for people who look like them, but not those other people. And at some level Trump is catering to that unserved population."

More at the link.
Click to expand...


Isn't many people like that including many progressives or "brogressives" kinda like the ones on Reddit?

Like some people have really liberal views, but those liberal views only really support making their lives better and people that look like themselves, but no ones else. It I think this happened with feminism.
I actually have no idea why people act with that form of tribalism. It really makes no sense. It really wouldn't effect them if people get the same benefits. Unless it there's some form of liking to have power over others. I considered those views like self-serving ideologues.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Abinash117 said:
Isn't many people like that including many progressives or "brogressives" kinda like the ones on Reddit?

Like some people have really liberal views, but those liberal views only really support making their lives better and people that look like themselves, but no ones else. It I think this happened with feminism.
I actually have no idea why people act with that form of tribalism. It really makes no sense. It really wouldn't effect them if people get the same benefits. Unless it there's some form of liking to have power over others.
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They like having power over others, but social programs do cost money so they believe that every dollar spent on an immigrant is a dollar taken from them in taxes.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
speculawyer said:
What the fuck?

The GOP is really hitting on the important issues facing America . . . like school teachers talking to each other. Perhaps we should mandate that their cellphones not be allowed to communicate with each other too!
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Like I said.. there's not a day goes by that at least one GOP candidate says something that'll sound absolutely atrocious come general election time. I hope that the Democrats' superPACs have a field day defining the eventual GOP nominee for the general electorate as soon as possible.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Y2Kev said:
Who are you betting on?

edit: You're betting on cruz?

Is Jeb sick? He looks sickly in a lot of the photos from yesterday. Maybe he should eat a hamburger instead of just cooking them.
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My honest answer is I'm not sure. probably a tossup between Cruz and Trump, but:

1.) I'm still not convinced Trump actually WANTS to go the distance to the general, much less get into a grueling, bruising, primary fight with Clinton.

2.) Trump seems to have a ceiling to his appeal. I think it was PPP showing that just about everyone edges him out head to head if it came down to two contenders- the "not trump" vote is bigger than the "trump" vote and I doubt that will change. So..again unlikely (but not impossible) trump gets the nomination.

Huckabee, Fiorina, Kaisch, Carson, Paul and Christie either aren't viable or are dead already. your options are Bush, Rubio, or Cruz to take it.

Of the three? Cruz in a walk. He's the only one with any actual skill at running for office. You're telling me from what we've seen so far, in a debate between Bush and Cruz you think Cruz would take the L there?
 
S

speculawyer

Member
B-Dubs said:
That's some big brother reasoning right there, holy shit Kasich is the scariest dude running.
Click to expand...

But due to the first debate performance, many feel he is the most moderate. And maybe he is. All of these guys say something unhinged whether it is anchor babies, rapists, no exception for rape or incest, climate change is a hoax, public shaming laws, etc.
 
A

Abinash117

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
They like having power over others, but social programs do cost money so they believe that every dollar spent on an immigrant is a dollar taken from them in taxes.
Click to expand...

I was talking about in general, but I see


http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...rump-many-gang-members-are-illegal-immigrants

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump says a lot of "gang members" in American inner cities are illegal immigrants.

“A lot of the gangs that you see – it doesn’t hopefully pertain to you guys so much – but when you look at Baltimore, when you look at Chicago and Ferguson and a lot of these areas, you know a lot of these gang members are illegal immigrants,” Trump told Mobile, Ala., radio station FM Talk 106.5 on Thursday.
Click to expand...
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eCraUvIq-s

Tell me where this Hillary has been hiding and how do we bring her out.
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The full video is pretty good too: http://publish.dvlabs.com/democracynow/360/wx2015-0819_clinton-blacklivesmatter-360P.mp4

She understandably won't come out fully against the actions her husband took and how it ended up affecting minorities but it's great that she understands the issue is systemic. Even on here, convincing people (or even so-called liberals) the problem is systemic and virulent is a hard feat. So I felt like her mentioning it showed she wasn't just being motivated polticially since acknowledging systemic racism isn't something that common with moderates or even Ds.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
Not a fan of Sabato but an interesting point to be made here.

The fact that her unfavorability number hasn’t grown much while her favorability number has clearly dropped suggests that some Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are not willing to say they like their party’s frontrunner right now, but they also aren’t willing to say they dislike her. These are the voters that Clinton, as the nominee, would probably be able to bring back into the fold. Polarization raises the floor for candidates of both parties, even ones who are damaged.
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Could be Bernie supporters looking elsewhere for the moment which drops her numbers.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Abinash117 said:
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...rump-many-gang-members-are-illegal-immigrants

Republican presidential front-runner Donald "I promise I will never be in a bicycle race" Trump says a lot of "gang members" in American inner cities are illegal immigrants.

“A lot of the gangs that you see – it doesn’t hopefully pertain to you guys so much – but when you look at Baltimore, when you look at Chicago and Ferguson and a lot of these areas, you know a lot of these gang members are illegal immigrants,” Donald "Maybe it says he's a Muslim" Trump told Mobile, Ala., radio station FM Talk 106.5 on Thursday.
Click to expand...
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What?

Trump doesn't need policy advisors, he can just pull shit from his ass. I can see Texas and So. Cal. having some illegal immigrant gangs but Baltimore, Chicago, and Ferguson?
 
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