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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On

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Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Manmademan said:
My honest answer is I'm not sure. probably a tossup between Cruz and Trump, but:

1.) I'm still not convinced Trump actually WANTS to go the distance to the general, much less get into a grueling, bruising, primary fight with Clinton.

2.) Trump seems to have a ceiling to his appeal. I think it was PPP showing that just about everyone edges him out head to head if it came down to two contenders- the "not trump" vote is bigger than the "trump" vote and I doubt that will change. So..again unlikely (but not impossible) trump gets the nomination.

Huckabee, Fiorina, Kaisch, Carson, Paul and Christie either aren't viable or are dead already. your options are Bush, Rubio, or Cruz to take it.

Of the three? Cruz in a walk. He's the only one with any actual skill at running for office. You're telling me from what we've seen so far, in a debate between Bush and Cruz you think Cruz would take the L there?
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I think the public basically looks at debates as gaffe vignettes. Don't make one, you'll be fine. Just need to be steady and a warm body and not an idiot (so Walker could be in trouble). Bush is perfectly capable of not being an idiot and appearing presidential.

Cruz is actively detested by establishment republicans. Cruz getting the nomination would be a huge issue for the party.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I think the public basically looks at debates as gaffe vignettes. Don't make one, you'll be fine. Just need to be steady and a warm body and not an idiot (so Walker could be in trouble). Bush is perfectly capable of not being an idiot and appearing presidential.

Cruz is actively detested by establishment republicans. Cruz getting the nomination would be a huge issue for the party.
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Oh lord.. if Cruz got the nomination, I halfway expect the GOP establishment to pray for him to be electorally thrashed so that they can point to this thrashing and say, "alright. We did it your way. We nominated your guy. It failed miserably. This was your 1964. Now we go forward with our way."
 
R

RustyNails

Member
The punditry is saying Jebe's aggressiveness lately will come back to bite him in the GE.

I disagree...it worked out for Mittens it will work for Jebe. I think people nowadays understand the pandering that goes on during the primaries.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I think the public basically looks at debates as gaffe vignettes. Don't make one, you'll be fine. Just need to be steady and a warm body and not an idiot (so Walker could be in trouble). Bush is perfectly capable of not being an idiot and appearing presidential.

Cruz is actively detested by establishment republicans. Cruz getting the nomination would be a huge issue for the party.
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That doesn't explain Walker's post-debate performance, though. No gaffes, plenty of softballs hit cleanly, if not knocked out of the park. I don't think that people go in looking for high discourse, but there's clearly more expected of candidates than "don't make a total fool of yourself."
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Poodlestrike said:
That doesn't explain Walker's post-debate performance, though. No gaffes, plenty of softballs hit cleanly, if not knocked out of the park. I don't think that people go in looking for high discourse, but there's clearly more expected of candidates than "don't make a total fool of oneself."
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I maintain that Walker is dropping because others, namely Carson, are picking up support, mostly transient. I think those voters will eventually support Walker and I don't think the lack of pizazz at a debate will hurt him when it's down to say 3 people instead of 27.

I will never forget Walker's retarded look on his face nodding along to Ben Carson's racist crap. Idiot.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
RustyNails said:
The punditry is saying Jebe's aggressiveness lately will come back to bite him in the GE.

I disagree...it worked out for Mittens it will work for Jebe. I think people nowadays understand the pandering that goes on during the primaries.
Click to expand...

But... it didn't work for Mittens. He did get his ass bit in the GE.
 
W

watershed

Banned
RustyNails said:
The punditry is saying Jebe's aggressiveness lately will come back to bite him in the GE.

I disagree...it worked out for Mittens it will work for Jebe. I think people nowadays understand the pandering that goes on during the primaries.
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Mitt's swing to the right definitely hurt him in the general. He was wishy-washy and ran away from his own signature achievement as governor (healthcare reform). He talked about "self-deportation" and that comment haunted him too. And most importantly, he lost the general election.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Y2Kev said:
I maintain that Walker is dropping because others, namely Carson, are picking up support, mostly transient. I think those voters will eventually support Walker and I don't think the lack of pizazz at a debate will hurt him when it's down to say 3 people instead of 27.

I will never forget Walker's retarded look on his face nodding along to Ben Carson's racist crap. Idiot.
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Except Trump has decent results in the "2nd choice" poll, which means those Carson voters may go to Trump.
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Slippers said:
Krugman on "Trumpism":

krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/19/trump-in-a-box

081915krugman2-blog480.png


"And then there’s the empty box. Once upon a time that box was filled by southern Democrats, who preserved Jim Crow while supporting the New Deal. But they’ve all moved over to the GOP now, and in the process become anti-social-insurance. But there are plenty of voters who want Social Security and Medicare for people who look like them, but not those other people. And at some level Trump is catering to that unserved population."

More at the link.
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Vox had a very similar article too.

CMt4hGfUYAAQxtK.png


Orange numbers for Trump populism - 40%
Blue numbers for Liberals - 33%
Red numbers for Political/Business Conservatives - 6%
Purple for true Moderates - 21%

Libertarianism is often predicted as being republican's future, but maybe there's greener grass for them on Trump populism, at least in the short term. However, money in politics kindof makes that hard to pull off, unless you are a celebrity with a name already built up and your own hundreds of million dollars worth of cash to spend.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I'm about to ask her what she thinks of Scott Walker, but McCaskill has a question of her own. "What's Scott Brown up to these days?" I tell her that the last I heard he was appearing as a guest on a celebrity cruise and pushing diet pills.

"No! Who goes on a celebrity cruise ship to see Scott Brown?" she scoffs. "Do people even know who he is? Wow. He will do anything to show his body. It was so surreal, all of the women in the Senate used to talk about how he would figure out some way, every time he had a conversation, to work in something about his body. Like, 'I was on the treadmill in the gym this morning and I saw you on MSNBC,' or 'You know, I was running at lunch today and' — and he did it to all of us! We all compared notes."
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something lockdown
 
W

watershed

Banned
Jeb has already started going after Trump by trying to paint him as a tax raising democrat. It doesn't cost alot money to change some talking points, tweet, or make a youtuve video. But no doubt about it, Jeb is concerned about Trump's rise and is starting to attack him directly.
 
B

Bam Bam Baklava

Member
speculawyer said:
Isn't it a PAC associated with a particular candidate? I know they are supposed to be separate but we all know that is bullshit.
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Most people won't know that though. How many people thought Swiftboat Veterans was connected to Bush directly?

He can try and connect the two but he can't really attack directly and the PAC will just keep striking back.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
speculawyer said:
WatLady.gif
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I said, "Well I'd would put them on the end of the highway, on western part of the interstate system, and I'd put them on the eastern side of the state, right there on the interstate system, and in the north on the Minnesota border, and on the south Kansas and Missouri border and I would just say this: 'As of this date' -- whenever we decide to do this -- 'as of this date, 30--' this is a totally arbitrary number, '30 to 60 days from now anyone who is in the state of Iowa that who is not here legally and who cannot demonstrate their legal status to the satisfaction of the local and state authorities here in the State of Iowa, become property of the State of Iowa.' So if you are here without our permission, and we have given you two months to leave, and you're still here, and we find that you're still here after we we've given you the deadline to leave, then you become property of the State of Iowa. And we have a job for you. And we start using compelled labor, the people who are here illegally would therefore be owned by the state and become an asset of the state rather than a liability and we start inventing jobs for them to do.

"Well how would you apply that logic to what Donald Trump is trying to do? Trying to get Mexico to pay for the border and for the wall?"

"Same way. We say, 'Hey, we are not going to make Mexico pay for the wall, we're going to invite the illegal Mexicans and illegal aliens to build it. If you have come across the border illegally, again give them another 60-day guideline, you need to go home and leave this jurisdiction, and if you don't you become property of the United States, and guess what? You will be building a wall. We will compel your labor. You would belong to these United States. You show up without an invitation, you get to be an asset. You get to be a construction worker. Cool!'


CALLER: Well I think everybody would believe it sounds like slavery?

MICKELSON: Well, what's wrong with slavery?


Mickelson has a history of making racially-charged, anti-immigrant remarks but he also has a strong pull with conservative caucus voters in Iowa. His influence is so big that he recently hosted several 2016 GOP candidates on his show, including Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum, and Ben Carson during their visits to the Iowa State Fair. After Mickelson defended his immigrant-slave plan, Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI) appeared on his show. Not surprisingly, Mickelson's immigration plan didn't come up.
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http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/08/19/ia-radio-host-jan-mickelson-enslave-undocumente/205020
 
S

speculawyer

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
http://mediamatters.org/blog/2015/08/19/ia-radio-host-jan-mickelson-enslave-undocumente/205020
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"Become property of the state of Iowa"

That far right bubble is something else. I really think AM radio and Fox News have really hurt the GOP. They helped for while because the helped organize and provided free media. But it is now backfiring because they're now too disconnected from the broader society. Things that are loopy bounce around the echo chamber and get accepted as fact. Then come election time they say things like "women have a way of shutting that thing down" or "Obama said nothing about terrorism after Benghazi" such that they seem nutso.
 
B

BertramCooper

Banned
As long as Trump continues to spout blatantly racist nonsense, attempts by Jeb! and others to paint him as a Democrat aren't going to stick.

Trump is barely even dog-whistling at this point, which is refreshing to all of these reprehensible Republicans who are eating it up.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Chichikov said:
Ever since I've seen Melancholia I realized that if it ever came to be, it will be so boring, pretentious and self-indulgent that by the end I will be happy for the sweet release.
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I've deliberately skipped that movie..

--

I like how Jeb's camp just puts it out there that they're confident about a Jeb-vs-Trump fight. If Trump doesn't drop in the polls after debate #2, it looks increasingly likely that this race becomes The Race to Be the Guy Who Faces Off Against Donald. Jeb vs Donald would be a fight between two candidates with huge intraparty negatives, so at the outcome when a winner is determined, we'd get to hear all sorts of flat, sarcastic cries of.. "Yaaaaay."

--

And Trump's big stadium rally is in Mobile today! I'm not one to pray for rain (leave that to Texas politicians), but it'd be funny to see him get monsooned.
 
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