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[Butts-a-plenty]

How so? Just because Kasich accepted Medicaid expansion when he got backed into a corner?

Well that's a misrepresentation of reality if I've ever seen one.

 

[BertramCooper]

He needed the money to get a surplus by campaign time, he opposed everything else but did an end run around the legislature in order to get the extra federal billions which just about matched the tax cuts he pushed through. It's an experience move, not a principled stand on broad entitlement expansion.

Except that he forcefully made it a principled stand when he arguably didn't need to make it a forceful principled stand. He could have done everything he did to enact it without making it into the public crusade that it became.

I've said more times than anyone that Kasich isn't a moderate. But he IS more moderate than Walker, and I can't see Walker finding Kasich an appealing VP.

 

[thepotatoman]

Well, it happened in 2008 and 2012. The GOP had historical losses of the youth vote.

And the demographics favoring Democrats have only increased since then. Hispanics and women are getting shat on by the GOP front-runner and the GOP in general. Youth still don't trust old, white, conservative, religious zealots.

The Republicans, in their current state, are doomed.

Point being they didn't win 2008 because they triangulated the best to become the most moderate. They won because the economy was in a freefall. You should expect huge margins of victory in that environment. And they mostly won 2012 because of incumbent advantage, not because republicans ran too far right.

Demographics are also a huge component to current and future elections too, but so many people want to blame GOP's downfall on the Tea Party instead, and so many democrats still think the key to victory lies in moderating as much as possible.

 

[User 406]

Where is his support coming from? He said nothing sound bite worthy in the debate.

It's been mentioned before, but Carson outright denied systemic racism and endorsed colorblindess, and he couched a lot of what he said throughout the debate in hardcore born-again Christian language. He established himself firmly as One Of The Good Ones in the Amen corner. That goes a long way with colorblind racist evangelicals.

 

[pigeon]

Except that he forcefully made it a principled stand when he arguably didn't need to make it a forceful principled stand. He could have done everything he did to enact it without making it into the public crusade that it became.

I've said more times than anyone that Kasich isn't a moderate. But he IS more moderate than Walker, and I can't see Walker finding Kasich an appealing VP.

Yeah, there are multiple articles about Kasich's real problem, which is not that he expanded Medicare but that he said repeatedly, including in private with donors, that expanding Medicare was the Christian thing to do.

That kills his ability to get establishment support, and he's too much of an actual governor to run as an anti-establishment candidate.

Point being they didn't win 2008 because they triangulated the best to become the most moderate. They won because the economy was in a freefall. You should expect huge margins of victory in that environment. And they mostly won 2012 because of incumbent advantage, not because republicans ran too far right.

Demographics are also a huge component to current and future elections too, but so many people want to blame GOP's downfall on the Tea Party instead, and so many democrats still think the key to victory lies in moderating as much as possible.

I see where you're coming from on this -- poli sci keeps arguing that candidates don't matter, campaigns don't matter, political ads don't matter, all that matters is the fundamentals. If all that's true, then yeah, there's no reason for us not to nominate the most extreme candidate, just like there's no reason for the GOP not to nominate Donald Trump.

The problem I see with the argument is that all the data political scientists are working on is data in which the two parties are acting as if that stuff does matter. So we can't really conclude that candidate quality is irrelevant -- all we can really conclude is that, in an environment with two parties both working to optimize candidate quality, candidate quality is irrelevant. Which is consistent with candidate quality being always and everywhere irrelevant, but it's also consistent with, say, candidate quality having heavy diminishing returns so that the candidates both parties select are always practically equal.

Basically, we can't really know if everything parties do is irrelevant until a party seriously fails to do them. So Trump could actually be our big chance to find out if candidate quality matters. But that means we still have to optimize our candidate selection or we'll pollute the experiment!

 

[HylianTom]

I'm entering the next few elections with the assumption that both parties' candidates are getting at least 45% of the popular vote apiece. We could have a depression, and things are so polarized that we still wouldn't see much budge from those guiderails. (McCain, for recent reference, won 45.7%)

Candidate personality will steer a portion of that remaining 10%.
Positions will steer some.
Economy will steer some.

This is a game of margins, which is why I celebrate the idea of a tiny sliver of the GOP base sitting at home.. or why I excoriate my-way-or-the-highway Democratic primary voters.

If it's true that demos are the strongest determinant of elections, I kinda smirk at claims that 2020 would be lost by Dems. 2016 already looks like a steep climb for the GOP in that regard.. now imagine another four years of these trends progressing.

And imagine this: Hillary wins and we have a decent, 1990-style recession at some point during the next term - but the GOP's candidate still loses by a comfortable EV margin in 2020. The reactions in 2012 and 2016 (they'd blame a 2016 loss on the "first female" factor) would look tame in comparison.

 

[ivysaur12]

Dave Itzkoff ‏@ditzkoff
President Obama will tape an episode of "Running Wild with Bear Grylls" while in Alaska, to air later this year, NBC says.

Oh.

 

[BertramCooper]

Oh.

DIRECT SHOTS FIRED AT SARAH PALIN.

 

[ivysaur12]

40% of Alaska’s total population lives in Anchorage. Also, how do 300,000 people live in Anchorage how are you not cold Anchoragians.

EDIT: Sorry, the correct term is "Anchoragite".

 

[Plinko]

Well, Obama will have done it for eight years. And W. Bush did it for eight years before him.

Both of them have major political experience, though. Carson has almost nothing. He's a folksy doctor who denies racism at this point.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Want to bet on Democrats regaining the Senate in 2016? I think they will.

Sure, I'll take that bet. I'm really starting to doubt that Clinton will have a big (positive) impact down the ticket.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Sure, I'll take that bet. I'm really starting to doubt that Clinton will have a big (positive) impact down the ticket.

you have taken on a few bets so far. I have lost count but the total is up to 3 I think.

1. 3 month ban if Walker is not the nominee
2. Clinton will not carry the senate with her.

 

[KingGondo]

Cool news guys, Oklahoma is continuing to slouch toward a fully-fledged theocracy.

 

[HylianTom]

Great billboard outside of Grand Junction, Colorado:

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...llboard-getting-attention-near-grand-junction

 

[PlayALLtheGames]

DIRECT SHOTS FIRED AT SARAH PALIN.

Sarah Palin is an Idahoan.

 

[RustyNails]

Carson? Leading Iowa? The moron spoke for maybe 4 minutes at the debate and out of those 3 were incoherant babbling. What.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Sure, I'll take that bet. I'm really starting to doubt that Clinton will have a big (positive) impact down the ticket.

WI and IL are basically gimmes at this point. Johnson and Kirk are jokes.

NH, FL, OH, PA are all toss-ups and Democrats would only need to win two of them if they win the White House. They're all 2x Obama states with excellent recruits (unless Grayson screws it up). The polls in PA aren't looking too hot but I question Toomey's ability to significantly outrun the GOP nominee in a state that the Democrats will almost certainly win.

And that discounts any surprise wins in states like NC, IN, AZ or MO.

 

[NeoXChaos]

It’s also unclear if Trump’s public support will remain steady. Even those who forked over $100 on Friday see Trump—he insisted it was not a fundraiser despite instructions at the front gate about on how to write a check to his campaign—not everyone was necessarily a Trump backer. Cindy Liquori, a 49-year-old small-business owner, drove to the Norwood, Mass., event from Suffield, Conn. “We love him,” she said, giddy to see the former reality star. But, she adds, she had planned to back Clinton before Trump got into the race. If he isn’t the nominee, Liquori said she might go back to supporting Clinton.

What in the world?

http://time.com/4016510/donald-trump-new-hampshire-republican/
https://instagram.com/p/7DdvbEmhWG/

 

[ivysaur12]

DINO Patrick Murphy comes out for the Iran deal.

 

[theprodigy]

What in the world?

http://time.com/4016510/donald-trump-new-hampshire-republican/
https://instagram.com/p/7DdvbEmhWG/

Why are you surprised when Trump/Sanders people also exist?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Why are you surprised when Trump/Sanders people also exist?

I am always surprised. I find it so interesting.

 

[pigeon]

Why are you surprised when Trump/Sanders people also exist?

It is a little surprising. Trump and Sanders are both running as outsiders and favor protectionism and limited immigration. Trump and Hillary have basically nothing in common. I guess if you want to increase Social Security and that's your sole issue?

 

[BertramCooper]

It is a little surprising. Trump and Sanders are both running as outsiders and favor protectionism and limited immigration. Trump and Hillary have basically nothing in common. I guess if you want to increase Social Security and that's your sole issue?

There are a shocking number of zero-issue voters out there.

Or voters whose chief concerns are as dumb as, say, ErasureAcer's.

 

[Basileus777]

There are a shocking number of zero-issue voters out there.

Or voters whose chief concerns are as dumb as, say, ErasureAcer's.

And these are just some individual anecdotes. If there is data of a significant crossover, then that would be far more surprising.

 

[East Lake]

I don't know if I'd say Trump and Hillary have zero things in common, unless you're trying to keep Bernie and Trump contained in a group that allows you to keep thinking Bernie is mostly supported by racists.

 

[thepotatoman]

I'm entering the next few elections with the assumption that both parties' candidates are getting at least 45% of the popular vote apiece. We could have a depression, and things are so polarized that we still wouldn't see much budge from those guiderails. (McCain, for recent reference, won 45.7%)

Candidate personality will steer a portion of that remaining 10%.
Positions will steer some.
Economy will steer some.

This is a game of margins, which is why I celebrate the idea of a tiny sliver of the GOP base sitting at home.. or why I excoriate my-way-or-the-highway Democratic primary voters.

If it's true that demos are the strongest determinant of elections, I kinda smirk at claims that 2020 would be lost by Dems. 2016 already looks like a steep climb for the GOP in that regard.. now imagine another four years of these trends progressing.

And imagine this: Hillary wins and we have a decent, 1990-style recession at some point during the next term - but the GOP's candidate still loses by a comfortable EV margin in 2020. The reactions in 2012 and 2016 (they'd blame a 2016 loss on the "first female" factor) would look tame in comparison.

I would rank those as economy first, personality second, and policy third. And more goes into personality than just charisma. For instance Hillary's long time spent in a spot as a political leader. That's why I prefer calling it branding instead of personality.

I still think 2024 is the tipping point to where it's nearly impossible. 2020 may still be contended. I guess policy will matter when it comes time for demographic realignment.

 

[RustyNails]

It is a little surprising. Trump and Sanders are both running as outsiders and favor protectionism and limited immigration. Trump and Hillary have basically nothing in common. I guess if you want to increase Social Security and that's your sole issue?

You also have to realize that there are utterly stupid people voting too, who don't know what the difference between any of the candidates is. Hillary has name recognition. That goes a long way in filling the void for people like those.

 

[pigeon]

I don't know if I'd say Trump and Hillary have zero things in common, unless you're trying to keep Bernie and Trump contained in a group that allows you to keep thinking Bernie is mostly supported by racists.

What things do you think they have in common?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

ISIS is going after the Ron Paul crowd now by talking about how the caliphate will have a gold standard and how Austrian Economics predicts the destruction of the U.S. economy due to fiat money?

 

[RustyNails]

DINO Patrick Murphy comes out for the Iran deal.

Whats the whip so far, 32?

 

[ivysaur12]

Whats the whip so far, 32?

31.

 

[Wilsongt]

Fox & Friends host Elizabeth Hasselbeck asked a guest Monday morning why the #BlackLivesMatter protest movement has not yet been classified as a hate group.

Fox invited conservative African-American commentator Kevin Jackson on the show to discuss the group of #BlackLivesMatter protesters who disrupted the Minnesota state fair while chanting “Pigs in a blanket, fry them like bacon,” and the unprovoked murder of Texas deputy Darren Goforth at the hands of a black man. Jackson called the movement “nonsense” and warned that it would backfire.

“Kevin, why has the #BlackLivesMatter movement not been classified yet as a hate group?” Hasselbeck asked. “I mean, how much more has to go in this direction before someone actually labels it as such?”

“Well they should do it, but unfortunately it’s being financed by the leftists,” he responded. “Ironically it’s people who have nothing, really no concern at all about black lives. People like George Soros…”

Hasselback asking what all Fox News viewers already think.

 

[East Lake]

What things do you think they have in common?

"While many of you are working multiple jobs to make ends meet," she said, "you see the top 25 hedge fund managers making more than all of America’s kindergarten teachers combined. And, often paying a lower tax rate."

"They're paying nothing and it's ridiculous. I want to save the middle class," Trump said. "The hedge fund guys didn't build this country. These are guys that shift paper around and they get lucky."

Medicare and Medicaid have saved lives for half a century. An attack on them is an attack on seniors and vulnerable Americans. -H

“Every Republican wants to do a big number on Social Security, they want to do it on Medicare, they want to do it on Medicaid. And we can’t do that. And it’s not fair to the people that have been paying in for years and now all of the sudden they want to be cut,” Trump said.

“I want people taken care of in the country, okay? You can call it anything you want, but I want — including people that don’t have anything,” The Donald told radio host John Fredericks in an interview Wednesday. “We gotta do that.”

So they fairly similar on SS, health care, and taxing high earners. Seems pretty similar if you ask me!

 

[dramatis]

Well, they're both blonde.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Well, they're both blonde.

The hair is real, the color is not.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

Oh.

I wouldn't be surprised if the day comes when the President is going around reality shows just to get coverage because no one listens to weekly addresses anymore or even televised speeches.

Tune in to Big Brother to see special house guest POTUS or guest host of america's got talent.

 

[And_Gignac]

Sanders and Trump have polar opposite platforms, but they ignite the same type of "voting" fire. Thats why I believe Sanders would be a safer bet for the Dems if Trump gets the nomination.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Sanders and Trump have polar opposite platforms, but they ignite the same type of "voting" fire. Thats why I believe Sanders would be a safer bet for the Dems if Trump gets the nomination.

I agree with your first sentence but not necessarily your second. The gender gap will be huge with Hillary in the race and she's a rock star among minorities, which would further be compounded by Trump's colorful commentary. With how much he shits on Mexicans we could very well see 80% of the Hispanic vote go to the Dem if he's the nominee.

Which I'm increasingly believing he will be.

 

[NeoXChaos]

@PPPpoll

Hillary was up 35 on our national poll last month and she's up 35 on our national poll this month- IA/NH really on their own track

YES.

From a serious standpoint all this really tells us is that IA/NH are microcosms of a primary where so far the overall fundamentals and demographics will favor Hilary in the end.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Hasselback asking what all Fox News viewers already think.

As I said in the other thread I don't support BLM but this attack is pathetic. It would be laughable if there wasn't a sinister, authoritarian aspect to it.

I don't see BLM advocating violence against anyone.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Hillary was up 35 on our national poll last month and she's up 35 on our national poll this month- IA/NH really on their own track

The meltdown continues!

 

[Aaron Strife]

In a just world she'd be up 35 on the Republicans. Ah well.

 

[theprodigy]

The meltdown continues!

I dare you to make a thread on that

 

[Coriolanus]

I agree with your first sentence but not necessarily your second. The gender gap will be huge with Hillary in the race and she's a rock star among minorities, which would further be compounded by Trump's colorful commentary. With how much he shits on Mexicans we could very well see 80% of the Hispanic vote go to the Dem if he's the nominee.

Which I'm increasingly believing he will be.

Problem in that scenario is Trump running on "i've bought you before" rethoric.

Doesn't much matter, really. Trump has no chance against her, and if Sanders ever manages to defeat Hills, Donald won't have a chance against him either.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I dare you to make a thread on that

Can't. The mods cracked down on the last one.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Btw morning consult national tracker

Trump: 37
Carson: 9
Bush: 9
Huckabee: 6
Rubio: 6
Walker: 5

10% selected Trump as their second choice. He has no ceiling.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

DINO Patrick Murphy comes out for the Iran deal.

I'd laugh if Grayson opposes and tries to run right.

BTW Grayson through a fundraising a party with wall st peeps here in NYC. But remember Murphy is the "Goldman Sachs candidate"

 

[NeoXChaos]

What are the chances of Grayson beating Murphy? They both are unknown statewide.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

Whats the whip so far, 32?

Murphy is in the house now

 

[ivysaur12]

PPP hasn't posted their national poll, have they?