Caused by policies from the Bush Administration. Obama managed to slow the hemerraging. It wasn't going to end as soon as he was sworn in.
Troll again later.
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PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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Caused by policies from the Bush Administration. Obama managed to slow the hemerraging. It wasn't going to end as soon as he was sworn in.
Troll again later.
This is part of why I think the Dems need a highlight reel campaign ready for next year. Have maybe one set of ads for each possible candidate, and then another set of ads that can be used to tar the entire party, defining them early. For tons of people who only start paying attention much later in the process, the antics we've been chuckling over for the past few months are going to be an absolute revelation.
It's like that old NBC ad campaign from the 90s: "if you haven't seen it, it's new to you!"
BertramCooper
Banned
A Trump/Hillary matchup wouldn't be even remotely close.
Christ, I could see Hillary getting 400 EC votes if she's running opposite Trump.
It's more to just get conservatives to STFU, really.
Yup. I did say "net" jobs after all. 8 million to 1 million.
Total jobs created under Obama is ~13 million with ~5 million being lost in his first year thanks to Bush's recession.
So technically the true number should be 13 million.
PhoenixDark
Banned
hydragonwarrior
Member
I suppose so, plus Trump is actively pissing people off he doesn't like, which is something Bush didn't seem to do.
Still, when I think back to Bush winning two terms in a row, it makes me think anyone who is the boring candidate in the GE will lose, even if the are the best for the country.
I liken that to be a major reason why Obama won against Hill as well.
Black Mamba
Member
Not really, no. Why should jobs lost in January, when Obama was in office for a week, count?
RastaMentality
Banned
Wonder if these are actually going up on TV. Trump's TV campaign could be fierce.
Coriolanus
Banned
Because the only reason why they were lost is due to the decrease in investor confidence, which only happened because Obama was elected. Dudes were bailing out asap, and with good reason.
We really shouldn't indulge him with this sort of thing...
Aaron Strife
Banned
Wonder which 6 EV state they have Hillary losing. I think last month it was Nevada, which I'm guessing is because their economy is so rocky, but I'd imagine Iowa would flip sooner.
But if the Dem nominee is winning Ohio, Florida and Colorado they're probably winning IA/NV. Probably just a kink of the model.
It'd be kind of funny if the election results were the exact same as 2012. Though personally I'm hoping she can swing North Carolina and maybe another state (Georgia? Missouri?)
PhoenixDark
Banned
Would you count January if it had positive job growth? I'm guessing you would. I'm just being fair and balanced.
Hobbestetrician
Member
This is what I keep telling myself so I don't go crazy or spiral into a deep depression.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That does seem to be answer. If you just attack him and he attacks back, it legitimizes him and he'll say stuff you don't dare to say.
You gotta just turn him into the clown that he is and only respond to him with jokes.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I always knew they would. They are desperate to get Fiorina up there.
Pizza Booty
Banned
anybody ever seen this youtube channel before?
my head hurts...
https://www.youtube.com/user/PragerUniversity
my head hurts...
https://www.youtube.com/user/PragerUniversity
PhoenixDark
Banned
My dream is for Trump to be semi competitive still during next year's WHCD and Obama to bring him up and then say "what do you call someone who makes disparaging comments about an entire ethnicity and broadly stereotypes them? A racist."
Black Mamba
Member
No, I wouldn't. IMO, you start at when the fiscal year starts, which starts on Oct 1st.
This isn't about fudging numbers. I'd do this with every administration. It's bullshit to count the first few months for or against the President not counting any legislation they pass that immediately goes into effect.
You want fair and balanced but you make your starting point the opposite of fair and balanced.
Her omission from the debate would have been ridiculous, assuming the polling holds up. The criteria was fucking stupid.
edit: Apparently, anyone in the top 10 7/16-8/10 is in and anyone also in the top 10 from 8/6-9/10 is also in, so in theory, everyone could be in.
Christie, who is in 10th, can only drop out if he goes to 11th in the TOTAL polling, not the new criteria.
Can be 11 people on stage.
Rand pretty much can't drop out.
Bernie is SO the President we need: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qU2P6OAbevw (top-notch 2010 Senate speech railing against Republicans who claim they are concerned about the national debt, whilst their tax breaks for the uber rich and corporations adds countless billions to our debt).
However, if Bernie really wants a shot at winning the Presidency, he should temper his tax policy, by stating that he will not, after all, propose a hike in the top rate of tax or remove the cap on Social Security payments, as plenty of us dream of scoring a million dollar salary (or winning the lottery) and the government taking say 50%, let alone 90%, is outrageous. No, instead he should fund his very noble proposals by closing the loop holes that allow mega corporations to pay zero or sometimes negative tax (they get multi-million dollar tax refunds...), which I believe a very high percentage of the population support wholeheartedly.
However, if Bernie really wants a shot at winning the Presidency, he should temper his tax policy, by stating that he will not, after all, propose a hike in the top rate of tax or remove the cap on Social Security payments, as plenty of us dream of scoring a million dollar salary (or winning the lottery) and the government taking say 50%, let alone 90%, is outrageous. No, instead he should fund his very noble proposals by closing the loop holes that allow mega corporations to pay zero or sometimes negative tax (they get multi-million dollar tax refunds...), which I believe a very high percentage of the population support wholeheartedly.
Macho Madness
Member
Desperate? Dude, by their own criteria she deserves to be up there. Not Christie. She's been ahead of him in every poll since the last debate.
BertramCooper
Banned
It's actually called that?
Black Mamba
Member
That's Partisan Hackery in one chart. Both ways. That's...not...good.
Fenderputty
Banned
I feel like this level of concern trolling should be reserved for nothing more than 6 months prior to election night, but maybe that's just me.
Retromelon
Member
U got some contradictions in your post there daniel b
Lol fiornia
Lol fiornia
Sorry. I didn't originally link because they're just hit pieces, but here they are:
http://www.vox.com/2015/9/1/9234743/case-against-joe-biden
http://nymag.com/thecut/2015/08/joe...l?mid=twitter-share-thecut&curator=MediaREDEF
Also, for those wondering, the Atlantic has the scoop on what the hell the gefilte fish email was about.
the atlantic said:
Click the link for the exciting ending! http://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2015/09/re-gefilte-fish/403102/
It's silly to keep Paul and Christie in there when Fiornia is legitimately polling better than them. I don't think Christie has any business being there either, but I'm not sure who I'd replace him with.
Avon Barksdale
Member
So who's going to be the first Republican to drop out of the race? Paul? Christie? Perry?
That's Partisan Hackery in one chart. Both ways. That's...not...good.
I was going to post this.
People are so fucking stupid.
Thequietone
Member
Hard to say who will drop out first, but Perry is cutting back on his staff already, right? My guess goes to him.
It has to be Perry at this point right?
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
This is the best analogy I've seen so farI mean.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I mean.
Perfect analogy.
Romney has to be kicking himself. Bush's PAC money scared him off. In reality we're seeing PAC money doesn't matter that much if no one gives a shit about the candidate. Bush is running out of campaign money because he doesn't have a small donor base. Hillary and Sanders are destroying republicans on that front, with Cruz not far behind. Carson is raising decent money too.
Romney is the superior republican candidate IMO, and could do well against Hillary (not saying he'd win). He'd have no problem taking on Trump, hell he's been doing quite a bit of it. His initial 2016 plan was to run to Jeb's right, and I think he could get away with that still while avoiding shifting to the right of Trump (on immigration for instance).
Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Romney would lose by a larger margin than he did in 2012 but then again I'd say that about every GOP candidate running.
The establishment just wants what they can't have, if Romney jumped in he'd have all the same baggage he had in 2012. A record he can't run on, his uncomfortable attempts at seeming relatable and holy shit those tax returns.
The establishment just wants what they can't have, if Romney jumped in he'd have all the same baggage he had in 2012. A record he can't run on, his uncomfortable attempts at seeming relatable and holy shit those tax returns.
No one has spent a dime on negative ads yet on each other. We have not reached January either. Saying Jeb is finished this early is silly. Saying Trump is finished this early is silly. Saying Walker is finished this early is silly. Saying Rubio is finished this early is silly.
Jack Remington
Banned
Jonathan Bernstein (well-known political scientist and blogger) has consistently stated that modeling shows the race as a dead heat with a possible advantage to Republicans. I got into a bit of a debate with him on his blog once about the electoral advantage - he argues that it basically doesn't exist, and that a popular vote by Republicans would definitely win them the WH even if it were a very slight advantage.
Kind of interesting to read takes like that given how confident PoliGAF is about 2016.
Kind of interesting to read takes like that given how confident PoliGAF is about 2016.
Thequietone
Member
I don't see why anyone would seriously think Romney would have a better chance at beating Trump. Maybe if he wasn't the nominee against Obama, but Trump has already called Romney and McCain losers who should have beaten Obama easily and apparently his base agrees with him.
links to your discussion with him?
The idea of a permanent/semi-permanent Democratic advantage in presidential elections is completely different from anything that has ever really happened before in American politics. It's not surprising that a lot of people are slow to get on board.
I'm jumping ahead and wondering what a "concession" speech would even look like from Trump after losing the GE. Yes, the quotes are deliberate. I can't imagine what would come pouring out of his mouth after a GE loss on a nationally televised concession.
And if the base gets their Trump-wish and they lose with the Great Right Hope they think is all they've been missing to win the Presidency back I fully expect Lord of the Flies-level of craziness by those in attendance at GOP election night parties and in Trump headquarters. Full on tearing off their clothes, lighting torches, devolving before our eyes into lower functioning forms of primate and clustering into groups of tribes for survival, and putting "left wing media" reporters in attendance at those gatherings on spits over fires to cook for sustenance.
And if the base gets their Trump-wish and they lose with the Great Right Hope they think is all they've been missing to win the Presidency back I fully expect Lord of the Flies-level of craziness by those in attendance at GOP election night parties and in Trump headquarters. Full on tearing off their clothes, lighting torches, devolving before our eyes into lower functioning forms of primate and clustering into groups of tribes for survival, and putting "left wing media" reporters in attendance at those gatherings on spits over fires to cook for sustenance.
Jack Remington
Banned
I agree. I don't don't see what Romney brings to the table that would entice Trump supporters or other GOP supporters to give him a third shot. He's still the same guy with the same baggage that lost to Barack Obama in 2012.
Tarkus
Member
Like
Also, people love their precious poll results, yet they don't think about Joe Blow Farmer or the old timers who would never participate in a poll or survey and are very likely Republicans.
Jack Remington
Banned
Here's a recent one: http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-08-24/the-2016-election-five-leading-indicators
It'll be interesting if he's right, and in 2016 Hillary suddenly finds herself down a few points in polling averages instead of being up 5-6 points like she is now.
I'm kind of skeptical about "modeling" in the general election. These things happen once every four years, and elections with no incumbents have tended to happen only every 8 years. Polling is also a lot better than it used to be. You're running a model based on a very limited number of data points that doesn't reflect superior data collection in recent years.
It'll be interesting if he's right, and in 2016 Hillary suddenly finds herself down a few points in polling averages instead of being up 5-6 points like she is now.
I'm kind of skeptical about "modeling" in the general election. These things happen once every four years, and elections with no incumbents have tended to happen only every 8 years. Polling is also a lot better than it used to be. You're running a model based on a very limited number of data points that doesn't reflect superior data collection in recent years.
PhoenixDark
Banned
What was his 2012 prediction. Obama had middling approval ratings and the economy wasn't good.
Makes me wonder if he had a prediction for Bush vs Gore. Clintons approval rating were soaring and the economy was as well.
Macho Madness
Member
Well if you take that, Virginia is off the table entirely.
I have to agree. It really is all about Virginia.
And Kay Hagan.
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