No, they would still have to be born to become citizens. They could, however, be entitled to certain constitutional rights under the due process and equal protection provisions of the 5th and 14th Amendments, which protect all "persons" - not just citizens - within US jurisdiction.
PoliGAF 2015 |OT| Keep Calm and Diablos On
- Thread starter Aaron Strife
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I mean, most of the Republican candidates don't think it's open season on illegal immigrants. Almost nobody thinks you have no rights the US is bound to respect unless you're a citizen.
Ugh. I just know Ted Cruz is holding Trump back from his full potential. Carson too, maybe.
I really hope the poll is accurate too. It's exiting times.
Cruz is definitely holding Trump back right now. I think we're gonna see Trump go after him hard in the next debate or even in the build-up. As big a dunce as Trump is, he can likely see that Cruz is pulling similar voters.
PhoenixDark
Banned
I'd bet money that Rubio will last longer than Bush. There were rumblings a few weeks ago that Bush donors were being tempted by Rubio, and that will only increase after the debate. He didn't stand out at all, whereas Rubio was rather impressive.
Please tell me Trump is here to stay for a while. I need reassurance.
Btw. I think Jeb is just an awkward guy. He stumbles a lot. And hopefully Kasich becomes the go-to moderate candidate. Or I guess that could be Rubio. (I don't actually think any of them are moderate, but that's how they are presented).
If these numbers are real, meaning if we see other outlets with similar results, Trump is going to stick around at least until the next debate.
Officerrob
Banned
I'm going to need to see another poll or two to back up these numbers before I believe them. Yes Walker and Bush didn't have good nights, but the establishment candidates completely falling off would be insane
Yeah. I'm not 100% convinced on these numbers. I honestly thought Trump did real damage to himself in the debate (not so much with the Megyn Kelly insults). But we saw the same thing last election. Republicans are fun to watch. Herman Cain and Bachman were both leading at one point even though no one honestly thought they had a chance at winning.
I guess the real question is whether we'll see Bobby Jindal make the top 15?
speculawyer
Member
Trump is definitely here to stay for a while. As long as his ego is getting stroked he'll keep pushing back against those stoooopid Looosers.
Isn't that basically the core idea behind "let's not put terrorists on trial", though?
Charitably, the idea here is that there's some sort of reduced due process requirement when dealing with non-citizens; it's still not "non-citizens have no rights". But they also talk about people "forfeiting" their citizenship by becoming terrorists, and they don't seem to have any real plan for having a fair trial in absentia - this is just a pretty normal "bad people shouldn't have rights" thing that ignores the problem of determining that someone is bad.
I agree, but it is another wild card. Different enough from McCain that we can't be sure.
But I do find myself strongly rooting for Trump, to the extent that I'm actually happy when his dumbfuckery doesn't hurt his numbers. Have to remind myself he is an asshole.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Does anyone have links to the Sunday Donald interviews?
Third Strike
Member
It doesn't matter. He'll still get picked up as a running mate. He is (and to a lesser extent, Bush) the only person that has a shot at flipping Florida. A Kaisch/Rubio ticket is the most competitive ticket the GOP can offer next year. Too bad that's not happening. I doubt Walker could flip Wisconsin, nor do I think Ohio would go for him. At least with a Kaisch/Rubio ticket, the battleground states could get narrowed down to just Virginia and New Hampshire (I still see Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Wisconsin going to the Dems, regardless).
Simply having a candidate from Ohio and a VP from Florida does not even come close to guaranteeing a win for the Republicans in either of those states.
Third Strike
Member
I didn't say it would guarantee a win, just that their chances are higher.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The thing I wonder about with regards to the Kelly thing...as the Trump/Kelly thread here showed, there are plenty of people (specifically dudes) willing to take the most oblivious positions possible in order to deny a sexism (or racism) reality. Furthermore conservatives have spent decades, but perhaps most intently over the last 6-8 years, complaining about "political correctness." I'd imagine a lot of men who watch Fox think Kelly is a bitch already, based on the way she's gone after some male guests on her show, and the debate only confirmed their views. Are they really going to punish Trump for saying out loud what they were essentially thinking?
I think Trump's fall from grace will be a slow process now. The debate didn't damage him like I thought it would but over the coming months it should become quite clear he has no political infrastructure, no policies, and used to support a variety of liberal views.
I think Trump's fall from grace will be a slow process now. The debate didn't damage him like I thought it would but over the coming months it should become quite clear he has no political infrastructure, no policies, and used to support a variety of liberal views.
As I said in the PoliGAF thread*, I doubt Trump supporters actually care about his views on abortion, gay marriage or health care. As long as he keeps 'telling it like it is' and keeps hammering away at immigrants, they're fine. Same with his lack of policies.
As for no political infrastructure, I do agree. It did seem like Trump was astroturfing some ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire a while back (with reports about him poaching some Koch operatives and such). But I don't think he's up for the day-to-day campaign management and retail politics actually necessary to win those contests, especially in caucus states.
* EDIT: lol, this IS the PoliGAF thread! Thought it was the Trump debate thread. Same difference I guess.
speculawyer
Member
I found it interesting that on This Week today, Halperin said that his sources were saying Trump's campaign is planning to start transitioning to rolling out serious economic tax and investment policies in the coming weeks. He also mentioned that Trump's campaign is starting to roll out a more legitimate organization and campaign infrastructure effort which, in his words,should not be underestimated. It should be interesting to see if it is accurate and comes to pass.
While the core of Donald's supporters probably don't care about specifics, it would do a lot to blunt the bluster argument that many in the GOP establishment are using against him.
Sounds like Trump figured out the only way to kill his campaign is to ask him about actual policy, and is taking steps to fix that. As dumb as he is, it is becoming fairly obvious that he isn't stupid.
BertramCooper
Banned
But does any of this matter? Truly?
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Trump's campaign is surprised that they actually have a chance to win this thing, and for the first time have actually think what the hell they'd actually do with the presidency.
Roland_Gunner
Member
Rubio may swing more Latino voters overall but Bush would have a much bigger impact in Florida. Jeb was a very popular governor there and had been crushing Rubio in every Florida poll before things went crazy a month ago.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Just think about the actual claim to fame of those 5.
Trump inheriting a real estate mogul and added multiple bankruptcies to that business, but is a successful reality tv show host and can manipulate bankrupcy law to insure he never truly fails.
Cruz, who's claim to fame is a government shutdown which ended up getting republicans nothing in return but unfavorable polls.
Carson, a successful brain surgeon, book seller, and pundit.
Fiorina, a failed CEO who was fired after she drove HP into the ground thanks to a stupid Compac buyout.
Rubio, whose claim to fame is immigration reform which could never get past the house.
Going strictly by resume, Carson, a guy who's never even held office, is still probably the only one that makes sense.
Fixed
BertramCooper
Banned
Man, Jeb! is so fucked.
He inspires no one. He has no compelling ideas. He has no charisma - no stage presence. No personality at all, really. He has money, a famous last name, and that's it.
Mitt Romney also had money, but he also carried himself well, spoke with authority, and came across as professional and presidential. No one in the base was crazy-in-love with Romney, but he was a solid default candidate and people felt confident enough voting for him in the primaries.
Jeb! is just a big, worthless ball of blah. And I can't see his piles and piles of money saving him.
He inspires no one. He has no compelling ideas. He has no charisma - no stage presence. No personality at all, really. He has money, a famous last name, and that's it.
Mitt Romney also had money, but he also carried himself well, spoke with authority, and came across as professional and presidential. No one in the base was crazy-in-love with Romney, but he was a solid default candidate and people felt confident enough voting for him in the primaries.
Jeb! is just a big, worthless ball of blah. And I can't see his piles and piles of money saving him.
Jeb will ultimately should he be the nominee depress Republican turnout like Larry Sabato hinted at in his twitter today. The far right do not want another RINO. Any percentage that stays home is a win for Hillary. Jeb can only afford to lose a few Republican votes.
@Bill Kristol just retweeted this:
Backing up of B-dubs courtesy of @DineshDSouza
@Bill Kristol just retweeted this:
Backing up of B-dubs courtesy of @DineshDSouza
This campaign really is going to be a blood bath. As we get closer to the actual voting, candidates are going to realize that since everyone has a billion behind them and can stick out the election until the end, money really doesn't matter as much as it did in 2012. With so many candidates, they are going to have to start attacking one another to pull support away from their opponents just to gain a few percentage points here and there, which could easily be the difference between a 1st place caucus win and a 5th place standing.
It is important to remember that (at least with all of the top tier candidates) all of these candidates legitimately want to win and will do whatever they deem as being necessary to achieve that goal. If Jeb! feels as though he is losing ground to Rubio or Walker, he will go negative to whatever extent he needs to to survive. It will be glorious.
Yeah, that's another thing. For all the vitriol toward Romney by the Tea party and their ilk, it's about a billion times worse toward Jeb!
PhoenixDark
Banned
I just don't see how someone can win without a grassroots base. Sure he has campaign officials in multiple states, but is anyone who makes less than $80,000 a year jumping out of bed super excited about the prospect of a Jeb Bush presidency? I can imagine someone being super excited about a Cruz presidency, and doing whatever they could to help him win. Same with Walker, Rubio, Paul maybe even Carson.
At least Romney looked and sounded like a president.
This man is never afraid to hit back. No matter how you personally feel about him, he is delivering some truth bombs about his rivals. The far right want a fighter and Trump is giving it to them. Jeb Bush is making a mistake in running a "happy warrior campaign". He is going to at some point have to take the gloves off to compete. If it means running a negative campaign then so be it. If he truly wants to win he is going to have to destroy not only trump but his "dear friend" Marco Rubio and Walker.
Romney is probably looking at all of this and thinking he made a mistake.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I remember people saying the same thing about Romney compared to McCain and yet this is totally on point. For all his flaws Romney would have been a mediocre but competent president. I could trust him not to massively screw anything up. I used to think this about Bush (and of the GOP frontrunners, only Bush - Walker, Trump, Paul, Rubio etc. would be disasters) but man he has no idea what he's doing.
People have said Bush's time was in 2012 but would he be any better then? He's a terrible politician and the baggage of the Bush name would have been even stronger then.
Well Jeb Bush was supposed to be the one to be nominated in 2000 but he lost his race for Governor in 94 while George W Bush won his 94 race in TX. If Jeb does lose it was never meant to be.
PhoenixDark
Banned
wut
Romney in office would have been a disaster, especially on foreign policy. Russia, Iran, Syria...I don't even want to think about it.
I personally think Jeb! looks and sounds pretty much like a president. He doesn't really come across terribly different in mannerism than a sort of mix of Romney and his brother.
His problem is that the republicans have held their noses and gone for the inevitable establishment guy basically twice in a row. They spent the entire last primary trying not to and ultimately went with Romney because they thought he could beat Obama. I don't see them falling for that particular delusion again. It's hard to make the argument you have to vote for the inevitable guy if you did that last time and it failed spectacularly.
Last time they wanted anyone that was Not Obama, but I think this time they will kind of want Not Romney.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That quote doesn't exist in the book. There's a more complicated paragraph about it though. Establishment Republicans are getting super desperate to get rid of him already.
They really are a bunch of idiots if they think trying to gotcha Trump is going to work. Between the first debate and the aftermath it's pretty clear the GOP is run by a bunch of bufoons
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Right, their strategy for getting rid of him is absolutely incoherent. It's one thing to support hypocritical policy to get elected, but none of these moves by the establishment make any sense for getting rid of Trump.
BertramCooper
Banned
The GOP has underestimated how much their base has grown to dislike the party.
For five years Republicans have been making pie-in-the-sky promises to their constituents and haven't succeeded in fulfilling any of them.
Maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't be telling voters that you're going to repeal every single word of Obamacare ad nauseam for half a decade when you don't have a fucking chance of ever doing it.
With Trump, they finally have a vessel for all of this pent-up resentment.
For five years Republicans have been making pie-in-the-sky promises to their constituents and haven't succeeded in fulfilling any of them.
Maybe, just maybe, you shouldn't be telling voters that you're going to repeal every single word of Obamacare ad nauseam for half a decade when you don't have a fucking chance of ever doing it.
With Trump, they finally have a vessel for all of this pent-up resentment.
money + a famous name + the old sane people behind him should be enough imo. jeb!'s boring but he's not like some unbelievable disaster. it's not like dukakis as the anointed one.
I'd be shocked-- shocked!-- if jeb isn't the nominee. the only competition is walker imo. And that guy is fuckin stupid. I mean I know, I know, conservative bona fides...but there's no evidence he can actually think on his feet yet.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
You mention Obamacare, but I have argued for a decade that I don't believe republicans ever want abortion banned because it would take away their greatest voting draw.
Wafflecakes
Member
There was a thread a while back on elect ability and it showed how many Americans would be willing to vote for a gay person, a socialist, etc.
Does anyone have a link to the thread or remember what it was called?
Does anyone have a link to the thread or remember what it was called?
BertramCooper
Banned
Well, I mean that's the crux of the problem.
Republican politicians have campaigned on promises of repealing Obamacare knowing they'd never actually succeed at it. And they kept doing it because it was an effective campaign strategy.
GOP voters thought they were being sincere, and now they're realizing they weren't. And it's especially toxic now that the GOP controls both houses and GOP voters actually expect tangible results.
Not to mention Romney would have signed the Ryan Budget (now with VP seal of approval) into law, which would have been disastrous for the economy.
We'll assume Aaron had a momentary lapse of judgment there.
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