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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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P

pigeon

Banned
You understand that, like, if you wanted to do negative messaging, you'd also need to poll the effectiveness of that negative messaging, right?

There are a lot of characteristics that distinguish a push poll from a normal poll. I don't see many of them displayed in that blog post.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
pigeon said:
You understand that, like, if you wanted to do negative messaging, you'd also need to poll the effectiveness of that negative messaging, right?

There are a lot of characteristics that distinguish a push poll from a normal poll. I don't see many of them displayed in that blog post.
Click to expand...

Honestly, this person just comes off really bad. Like right away:

INTERVIEWER: “What best describes your political affiliation — Democrat, Republican, or Independent?”
ME: “None of those describe my politics. I’m a socialist.”
INTERVIEWER: “But you have to pick one. Should I mark down that you are an independent?”
ME: “No, because I’m NOT an independent. I am completely opposed to the two-party system. I want multiple political parties. And, I’m a socialist.”
Click to expand...

The poor guy is asking her a question about political parties and this is what he gets. They try to compile the data so that it can be useful for those reading it and then he's gotta deal with a smart-ass who doesn't understand that socialism isn't a political party.

EDIT: This isn't even a push poll! They're trying to figure out if negative messaging has any affect on the numbers. That's useful information and they're getting thrown under the bus for it.
 
U

User 406

Banned
B-Dubs said:
The poor guy is asking her a question about political parties and this is what he gets. They try to compile the data so that it can be useful for those reading it and then he's gotta deal with a smart-ass who doesn't understand that socialism isn't a political party.
Click to expand...

But he apparently thinks Independent is!

We should start an Independent party. We can go through voter rolls, call them, and tell them to not vote for us.

Heh, kind of reminds me of the, " I don't believe in a god, but I'm not an atheist!"
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
B-Dubs said:
The mods are getting to the point where they're gonna start cracking down on the sniping from both sides soon, there was a post to the effect in one of the Sanders threads yesterday.
Click to expand...

I'm just surprised it hadn't happen sooner. Both sides have been sniping for months now.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
B-Dubs said:
The mods are getting to the point where they're gonna start cracking down on the sniping from both sides soon, there was a post to the effect in one of the Sanders threads yesterday.
Click to expand...

There were posts to that effect in this thread!

Hillary/Sanders is tearing GAF apart.

NeoXChaos said:
I'm just surprised it hadn't happen sooner. Both sides have been sniping for months now.
Click to expand...

This is a little disingenuous. You're one of the biggest participants from the Hillary side!
 
Tesseract

Tesseract

Banned
B-Dubs said:
The mods are getting to the point where they're gonna start cracking down on the sniping from both sides soon, there was a post to the effect in one of the Sanders threads yesterday.
Click to expand...

besada's, right? yeah, was curious about that.

i'm gonna bail out now until after south carolina, that shit is gonna be brutal.
 
T

teruterubozu

Member
B-Dubs said:
The mods are getting to the point where they're gonna start cracking down on the sniping from both sides soon, there was a post to the effect in one of the Sanders threads yesterday.
Click to expand...

There' just way too many Hillary/Bernie/Trump/Cruz threads on a daily basis in OT. And a lot of them are deliberately provocative. I can't imagine what it'll be like come summer/fall.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
teruterubozu said:
There' just way too many Hillary/Bernie/Trump/Cruz threads on a daily basis in OT. And a lot of them are deliberately provocative. I can't imagine what it'll be like come summer/fall.
Click to expand...

I'm more worried about the lead up to the conventions if everything's not settled by then. The fall should be better since it'll just be GOP vs Dems and a lot of the craziness should have died down.

BoboBrazil said:
Anyone making Republican debate thread?
Click to expand...

I'm supposed to, but if you want to throw one together go ahead. If not I'll throw one together later today.
 
D

Dixon's Jet

Banned
B-Dubs said:
The mods are getting to the point where they're gonna start cracking down on the sniping from both sides soon, there was a post to the effect in one of the Sanders threads yesterday.
Click to expand...
I'll take note of that and keep it down. I don't think I was behaving rudely though, just stating that I hope the democratic party is weathering the storm better than the republicans.

Both sides are falling to pieces right now. The democratic challenger is the new hotness.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
I just realized that even if Trump doesn't get the nomination, he's almost definitely going to be the runner-up. I can't wait to see Trump in a 1 v 1 debate. I can't imagine him holding his own like Hillary and Bernie did the other day. He does fine when he can make ad hominem attacks against a candidate, ramble about China for a bit, and then doesn't have to say anything for another 10 minutes... but I can't see him performing well when the pressure is on the entire time.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Updated Thread Assignments

New Hampshire Primary- A Human Becoming
Nevada Caucuses, South Carolina Primary- Wilsongt, NeoXChaos
Super Tuesday-b-dubs
Super Tuesday Part 2- TBD

*After Super Tuesday PoliGAF handles the rest of the primaries.

*Veepstakes is going to be in PoliGAF

2016 Republican National Convention-b-dubs
2016 Democratic National Convention- NeoXChaos

1st Presidential Debate-b-dubs
Vice Presidential Debate-Ebay Huckster
2nd Presidential Debate-
3rd Presidential Debate-Holmes

General Election 2016-Aaron Strife

Republican Debates

8 - Feb 6 ABC News - Bronx-Man
9 - Feb 13 CBS News - Makai
10 - Feb 26 CNN - Makai
11 - March 3 Fox News - Makai
10 - March 10 CNN - Makai

Democratic Debates
February 11 PBS-dramatis
March 6-kingkitty
March 9 Univision/Washington Post NeoXChaos
April-kingkitty
May-NeoXChaos
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I just realized that even if Trump doesn't get the nomination, he's almost definitely going to be the runner-up. I can't wait to see Trump in a 1 v 1 debate. I can't imagine him holding his own like Hillary and Bernie did the other day. He does fine when he can make ad hominem attacks against a candidate, ramble about China for a bit, and then doesn't have to say anything for another 10 minutes... but I can't see him performing well when the pressure is on the entire time.
Click to expand...

Trump would easily win Trump vs. Rubio because Rubio has literally nothing to say in any debate except for his stump speech and that will get called out more often when there's fewer people they have to focus on.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
I know Kasich is a piece of shit but goddamn

Caexqb7UEAAPv1o.jpg
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Can someone explain me how "dual-frame" with landline and cell phone polling works? (re: UMass Lowell NH Poll)
For the landline sample, interviewers were asked to speak with the youngest adult male or female currently at home based on a random rotation. If no male/female was available, interviewers asked to speak with the youngest adult of the other gender. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. Interviewers verified that the person was an adult and in a safe place before administering the survey.
Click to expand...
 
I

ICKE

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
I know Kasich is a piece of shit but goddamn
Click to expand...

Why is he a "piece of shit"? He seems like your run-of-the-mill moderate republican from times past. The kind of person who wants to balance the budget, is very pro-corporate but doesn't want to completely decimate social programs and refuses to engage in outright demagoguery. United States would be in a much better position politically if people like him were the face of the GOP:
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
ICKE said:
Why is he a "piece of shit"? He seems like your run-of-the-mill moderate republican from times past. The kind of person who wants to balance the budget, is very pro-corporate but doesn't want to completely decimate social programs and refuses to engage in outright demagoguery. United States would be in a much better position politically if people like him were the face of the GOP:
Click to expand...

Kasich is right behind Rubio and Cruz as the most anti-abortion candidate still running.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Trump would easily win Trump vs. Rubio because Rubio has literally nothing to say in any debate except for his stump speech and that will get called out more often when there's fewer people they have to focus on.
Click to expand...

He might get called out tonight. He's going to be a huge target and there's like 1-2 fewer people in this one than any of the other debates, if I recall correctly. Plenty of opportunity to put a spotlight on him.
 
T

theprodigy

Member
ICKE said:
Why is he a "piece of shit"? He seems like your run-of-the-mill moderate republican from times past. The kind of person who wants to balance the budget, is very pro-corporate but doesn't want to completely decimate social programs and refuses to engage in outright demagoguery. United States would be in a much better position politically if people like him were the face of the GOP:
Click to expand...

*incoming Sea Manky wall of text*
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
RastaMentality said:
Have there been any long form articles on this? This is wildly interesting to me.
Click to expand...

Not that I know of. I could do some basic analysis - but because of my job it would be hard for me to get the actual data to pull off an in-depth analysis.

A simplistic / ballpark version would be to compare the USA's military spending as a percentage of GDP (and include the funding for wars, since those tend to come in as separate items) versus Europe (Western Europe for a conservative measure, Eastern Europe for a more aggressive measure) from 1960-1990, and then 1990 to 2015. (Before and after Berlin Wall). You could make the assumption that the US spends the same percentage of GDP on military as either Western or Eastern Europe, and then calculate how much "extra" money we've potentially spent compared to them. It's simplistic; but it would be a start.

But I'd rather have spent the money than not; in that we were able to spend the money because the US didn't get their infrastructure bombed ala Europe during WWII. It fundamentally was a nice problem to have, IMO. :D
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Basically this.
I love research.
I also think the structure is broken. And that's part of why so many people leave it for fields like finance.
Needs a revolution, methinks.
Click to expand...

Agreed, agreed, and agreed. The entrenched interests are strong but I don't think the pyramid can keep going at this rate, hopefully some good change will come about in a decade or so. My old PI advocated for far more collaborative style research based on his time in Bell Labs (even went to the state of the union when obama announced the BRAIN grant and wrote some articles on it) and I interviewed at Princeton which has a super collaborative organization scheme though still kinda pyramidy.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
ugaboga232 said:
Can you list why you think its shit?
Click to expand...

I was just looking at this graph, I honestly don't know. It seems to be much better than ours, but much worse than Britain's, which is odd since they use the same basic idea:

commonwealth_rankings.png


And this:

The Wait Times Alliance’s annual report card, called "Time to close the gap," said 27 per cent of Canadians reported waiting more than four hours in the emergency department compared with one per cent in the Netherlands and five per cent in the United Kingdom.
Click to expand...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/medical-wait-times-up-to-3-times-longer-in-canada-1.2663013
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Diablos said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=12mJ-U76nfg

Lots of people talking about this video. It's the Elizabeth Warren video from back in 2004.

The logic people are using in their response to this and why they can't vote for Hillary is ridiculous. "See, she doesn't care, I'm just not voting for her." These are things that happened a long time ago and Hillary has refined her positions as she runs for President.

You don't like the fact that she shifts positions? Welcome to politics. What's really concerning to me is what seems like a growing number of voters are eating up Bernie's 'revolution' message, a goal that really can't be achieved, instead of Hillary's which is grounded in reality (i.e. divided Congress, electorate) and a willingness to protect what the party has acheived since Obama took office -- which is a lot -- and focus on the things you can still work on instead of promising voters a revolution. Like it or not, this is the best we can hope for. It's either that or GOP scorched earth politics. What do you want?

A lot of Bernie supporters strike me as being naive, unrealistic/out of touch and unable to realize that Hillary's platform may not come off as being as progressive as Bernie's, but it's a lot more realistic and reliable in a general election. Wake up!
Click to expand...
My Facebook feed has been nothing but this video for the past few days
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I was just looking at this graph, I honestly don't know. It seems to be much better than ours, but much worse than Britain's, which is odd since they use the same basic idea:

commonwealth_rankings.png


And this:



http://www.cbc.ca/news/health/medical-wait-times-up-to-3-times-longer-in-canada-1.2663013
Click to expand...

Is that a survey? Its probably an effect of being so close to the US (good med students are incentivized to go to us med school for much more money), having a much greater geographic spread which means a lot more hospitals for same amount of people meaning each hospital is worse, and stuff like that. Honestly the geographic spread will account for most of that given the high costs of building/running a hospital.
 
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