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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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P

PBY

Banned
ugaboga232 said:
IDK, if everyone is clutching their pearls at Bernie being a socialist, rubio has his own big set of problems that are pretty easy to make ads against.
Click to expand...
"Look at this asshole supporting amnesty"

"Look at this asshole who accomplished nothing"
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Nothing Rubio has done (or not done) is as scary as socialism to the American electorate.
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Hmm, banning raped women from getting abortions is opposed by 80% of voters, have to think that annulling all gay marriages would be opposed by 60-70% of voters, would guess that starting a civil war in Iraq would be opposed by 99% of voters, and cutting capital gains taxation is going to be very unpopular. He has serious problems in a general election, none of them by themselves are as bad as Socialism, but all together...

Ted Cruz: "to use a New York term, it’s the height of chutzpah." If Chutzpah is a "New York term" we can guess what "New York values" means
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https://twitter.com/HeerJeet/status/696048209685278720

So irritating that Obama gets blasted as antisemitic for the Iran deal whereas Cruz's possible antisemitism gets ignored.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
Nothing Rubio has done (or not done) is as scary as socialism to the American electorate.
Click to expand...
In perceptions, perhaps.

But in reality, Marco is a neocon continuation of the Dubya Doctrine. Expansionist Interventionist. Sold out to Big Oil


Neocons have two chipps on the table.
Jeb! is tanking, they are rallying towards Marco instead
 
P

PBY

Banned
KCRW left/right/center this week was near unlistenable

rich lowry was so fucking smug about trump/rubio. fuck.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
ugaboga232 said:
IDK, if everyone is clutching their pearls at Bernie being a socialist, rubio has his own big set of problems that are pretty easy to make ads against.
Click to expand...

QuiteWhittle said:
What's scary about Rubio is that he has the image of a moderate while being one of the most conservative candidates running.
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Sadly, I'm cynical when it comes to the overall electorate's ability to overlook optics. Rubio is very conservative, but it will require a little bit of focus from the people at large to see that his reasonable facade is, indeed, a facade.
 
V

VendettaRed07

Member
Diablos said:
WHY
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Warren is probably the only other politician that has any sort of credibility with this crowd and her saying this is proof to them that she's bought and beholden to special interests. Or that it is a vote that changed because of donations after she denied that ever happened during the debates
 
U

ugaboga232

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Sadly, I'm cynical when it comes to the overall electorate's ability to overlook optics. Rubio is very conservative, but it will require a little bit of focus from the people at large to see that his reasonable facade is, indeed, a facade.
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Fair enough, nothing is as easy to attack as socialism. But all of this is pretty conjecture heavy, people may actually like bernie and get numb to socialism attacks (or humans really are as surface level as you think).
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Perhaps Madeline Abright and Gloria Steinem shouldn't speak anymore.

EDIT: lol the Clinton campaign just dug up a traditional marriage pledge Bernie signed as mayor of Burlington. This campaign.
 
J

Jack Remington

Banned
campfireweekend said:
Key findings from study:



This doesn't mean you don't do it! You just don't frame it from a cost saving perspective, but a moral one.
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The way the Oregon Medicaid study is interpreted is such a crock. Megan McArdle is the worst at this btw.

"Statistically significant" is the key word, but most people just think that means significant.

In fact the study probably lacked the power to detect changes in the healthcare markers they selected short of Jesus himself descending into Oregon and healing all the sick in the treatment group.

The Incidental Economist had a good writeup on this. All the signs of the treatment effects point in the right direction, but the sample sizes are just too small to give you the power you would need to reject the null hypothesis that the observed differences are due to chance.

Also, it went two years. I'd love to see a ten year followup.

There's already evidence that Romneycare improved mortality rates in Massachusetts.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
ugaboga232 said:
Fair enough, nothing is as easy to attack as socialism. But all of this is pretty conjecture heavy, people may actually like bernie and get numb to socialism attacks (or humans really are as surface level as you think).
Click to expand...

Actually, in terms of optics, I think we overlook Bernie's image of being honest, genuine and consistent as an asset. A general election, more than any other, is about who people like more. The broader the constituency, the more things like personality tend to matter. His being a socialist is more about labeling than it is about optics, but would certainly still be an issue. My concern going into a GE is more so that the perception of Hillary saying/doing anything to get elected and being power hungry will be more problematic than slapping "socialist" on Bernie. Outside of reliable democrats, Hillary is immensely disliked. I think her unfavorables are what they are for unfair reasons and I don't deny that it's the result of a 25-year smear campaign, but it nonetheless exists and I think we underestimate how much each candidate's personality/perception as a person will factor into their GE odds.

For the record, I think either would ultimately win. The 2016 math is just too tough for the GOP and they've propped up candidates who do nothing but accelerate that trend away from their party.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
Actually, in terms of optics, I think we overlook Bernie's image of being honest, genuine and consistent as an asset. A general election, more than any other, is about who people like more. The broader the constituency, the more things like personality tend to matter. His being a socialist is more about labeling than it is about optics, but would certainly still be an issue. My concern going into a GE is more so that the perception of Hillary saying/doing anything to get elected and being power hungry will be more problematic than slapping "socialist" on Bernie. Outside of reliable democrats, Hillary is immensely disliked. I think her unfavorables are what they are for unfair reasons and I don't deny that it's the result of a 25-year smear campaign, but it nonetheless exists and I think we underestimate how much each candidate's personality/perception as a person will factor into their GE odds.

For the record, I think either would ultimately win. The 2016 math is just too tough for the GOP and they've propped up candidates who do nothing but accelerate that trend away from their party.
Click to expand...

I think Marco would come close (especially against Bernie), but I also think both are most likely to be the favorite once we get to the general since (unless it's Trump or Cruz) both will transform to Democrat vs. Republican.

Primaries play more with people's personalities than in the general.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I think Marco would come close (especially against Bernie), but I also think both are most likely to be the favorite once we get to the general since (unless it's Trump or Cruz) both will transform to Democrat vs. Republican.

Primaries play more with people's personalities than in the general.
Click to expand...

I think Rubio would defeat bernie easily.
 
C

campfireweekend

Member
Jack Remington said:
The way the Oregon Medicaid study is interpreted is such a crock. Megan McArdle is the worst at this btw.

"Statistically significant" is the key word, but most people just think that means significant.

In fact the study probably lacked the power to detect changes in the healthcare markers they selected short of Jesus himself descending into Oregon and healing all the sick in the treatment group.

The Incidental Economist had a good writeup on this. All the signs of the treatment effects point in the right direction, but the sample sizes are just too small to give you the power you would need to reject the null hypothesis that the observed differences are due to chance.

Also, it went two years. I'd love to see a ten year followup.

There's already evidence that Romneycare improved mortality rates in Massachusetts.
Click to expand...

Oh, I also definitely disagree what what it says about improving health outcomes, as do most of the economists in my post!

I was only talking about costs. I've read the incidental economist post.
 
C

CCS

Banned
I hope Trump's fired up for his return tonight. I'm hoping to witness the moment when Rubio's soul is finally destroyed by him.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
NeoXChaos said:
thought we were rooting for Jeb, Christie and Kasich to drop out now its for them to stay in?

genius.
Click to expand...
We need Jeb and Christie to drop but only if they're going to give their supporters to trump. Won't happen so they need to stay in.

WIN JEB WIN
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I think it would probably be the best chance Republican have towards taking the White House as far as matchups go, definitely.
Click to expand...

made easier by Bernie's refusal to move to the center allowing it to be snatch up by Rubio. Fresh face Rubio vs Bernie for extra points.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
Oh Gloria.

"I don’t mean to over-generalize … but men tend to get more conservative because they gain power as they age, and women get more radical because they lose power as they age,” Steinem responded.

“So it’s kind of not fair to measure most women by the standard of most men, because they’re going to get more activist as they get older,” she added.

“And when you’re young, you’re thinking, ‘Where are the boys?’ The boys are with Bernie.”
Click to expand...

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...em-young-women-support-sanders-to-attract-men

It´s really sad to see the agency of young women being erased. And this the biggest problem with part of the "bernie bro" narrative being pushed: it erases the will of young women.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I think her larger point about men gaining power when they age and women losing it is so insightful and true that I don't know how she followed it up with her next sentence.

I think it's hard to say with a straight face that Gloria Steinem hasn't earned her stripes so I'll just mark that down as a joke.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I think it would probably be the best chance Republican have towards taking the White House as far as matchups go, definitely.
Click to expand...

I think bernie winning would be a huge upset. In fact, I think the only one bernie could beat is Cruz. That's it. Bernie would be a disaster imo. The so called blue wall would crumble.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
I'm enjoying those numbers from the UMass Daily tracking. Since the 2nd, Bernie is down 6 and Hillary is up 11. I know she's going to lose, but if we could get close to a delegate split, that would be huge for the narrative coming out of it.

Of course, that's not going to change the narrative of Bernmentum, but still.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Melkr_ said:
Oh Gloria.



http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...em-young-women-support-sanders-to-attract-men

It´s really sad to see the agency of young women being erased. And this the biggest problem with part of the "bernie bro" narrative being pushed: it erases the will of young women.
Click to expand...

I don't think the BernieBro narrative is that female supporters of Bernie don't exist -- mainly that the harassment women face online from Bernie fans is predominately from men. Which Glenn Greenwald then tried to hand wave away because all campaigns are mean! or something.

adam387 said:
I'm enjoying those numbers from the UMass Daily tracking. Since the 2nd, Bernie is down 6 and Hillary is up 11. I know she's going to lose, but if we could get close to a delegate split, that would be huge for the narrative coming out of it.

Of course, that's not going to change the narrative of Bernmentum, but still.
Click to expand...

Sam Wang was talking about Hillary's bump coming out of Iowa already being reflected in most polling.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
adam387 said:
I'm enjoying those numbers from the UMass Daily tracking. Since the 2nd, Bernie is down 6 and Hillary is up 11. I know she's going to lose, but if we could get close to a delegate split, that would be huge for the narrative coming out of it.

Of course, that's not going to change the narrative of Bernmentum, but still.
Click to expand...
Enten suggested Hillary needs to come under 15 point gap in order to kinda lose gracefully, under 10 to create the narrative of momentum. Anything above 10 is bad news for Hillary imo.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Black Mamba said:
I think Rubio would defeat bernie easily.
Click to expand...

What do you think the map would look like?

With the swing states being:

OH
FL
CO
VA
NC
NV

Which states does Rubio win? I'd give him Florida and probably Ohio, especially if he puts Kasich on the ticket. The fact is, though, most states are very set in their red/blue status. A McGovern blowout would absolutely not happen in today's political climate. Rubio's chances of winning are almost entirely reliant on a clean sweep of every swing state, which favor Rubio in instances where the population is especially old and/or especially white. However, the math is against his favor.
 
A

And_Gignac

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I don't think the BernieBro narrative is that female supporters of Bernie don't exist -- mainly that the harassment women face online from Bernie fans is predominately from men. Which Glenn Greenwald then tried to hand wave away because all campaigns are mean! or something.



Sam Wang was talking about Hillary's bump coming out of Iowa already being reflected in most polling.
Click to expand...

Part of it. Which is truth, young men are still sexists. But the other part of the narrative does imply Sanders supporters are all male, which is obviously false since Sanders holds the biggest lead with young women.

And I dont see much of this post-Iowa bump for Clinton. She is at her lowest point ever in the averages.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Kristoffer said:
People really just don't trust Hillary Clinton. Why?
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She lied about killing Vince Foster in Benghazi.

Probably a combination of:

A): She's a politician so she has lied and flip flopped at times, but unlike Bernie Sanders' gay marriage saga of shifting and unclear positions, she has been in the public view forever so her flip flops are far more obvious.

B): Some sexism.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
What do you think the map would look like?

With the swing states being:

OH
FL
CO
VA
NC
NV

Which states does Rubio win? I'd give him Florida and probably Ohio, especially if he puts Kasich on the ticket. The fact is, though, most states are very set in their red/blue status. A McGovern blowout would absolutely not happen in today's political climate. Rubio's chances of winning are almost entirely reliant on a clean sweep of every swing state, which favor Rubio in instances where the population is especially old and/or especially white. However, the math is against his favor.
Click to expand...

He'd win them all. And steal WI and PA too. I think he costs like 6% nationally
 
H

Hammer24

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
What do you think the map would look like?

With the swing states being:

OH
FL
CO
VA
NC
NV

Which states does Rubio win? I'd give him Florida and probably Ohio, especially if he puts Kasich on the ticket. The fact is, though, most states are very set in their red/blue status. A McGovern blowout would absolutely not happen in today's political climate. Rubio's chances of winning are almost entirely reliant on a clean sweep of every swing state, which favor Rubio in instances where the population is especially old and/or especially white. However, the math is against his favor.
Click to expand...

What about Iowa? I think I ready 15000 people caucused more on the republican side. Could IA go Rep?
 
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