Everybody else is playing checkers, he's playing taking his ball and going home.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
PoliGAF 2016 |OT3| You know what they say about big Michigans - big Florida
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
- Start date
- Status
Everybody else is playing checkers, he's playing taking his ball and going home.
No denying the facts.
So... he tried in Florida? And we know he tried hard in Arizona. But Democrats in closed primaries don't want him. Come on New York.
Has anyone here posted this video of Donald Trump assaulting Rudy Fucking Giuliani in drag?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IrE6FMpai8
Lol, on a scale of 1-10, my bullshit meter just hit a 12. Hillary Clinton, who has been dealing with the GOP attacking her on every angle for the past 20 years, is afraid of Bernie Sanders' tone. That's Trump level bullshit. If she doesn't want to debate because it's the shrewd political move (but a bullshit move in terms of actually helping the party and the country); then just say it. Don't go full Trump on the bullshit.
See the above.
When I heard they were getting a podcast on Channel 33 I squeed.
To be fair, the fact that a cranky old white independent socialist from Vermont is even forcing her to run a primary this long is a pretty good indication she's a weak front-runner. This year she just didn't really have any competition. (The GOP being a super duper shit-show also significantly helped)
As much as I like Clinton as a candidate - she is a weak front runner. If it were Biden running against her instead of Sanders, I suspect Biden would be thrashing her (mostly because Operation "Hug Obama and hope no one remembers 2008" wouldn't have worked out as well against Obama's VP.
EDIT: LOL, saw some of the "math" about how Bernie could win...let it go folks. Unless Clinton gets indicted or something, this is sewn up.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It's like Devine wants to point out what a poor strategist he is.
I think this is a pretty good analysis by Yglesias, and it points to something worth remembering: Hillary Clinton was probably beatable this cycle.
People keep saying that Sanders is the future of the Democratic Party. I think that it is more accurate to say that Democrats today are already willing to consider a more aggressively left candidate, but that the coalition is still an intersectional coalition.
For all that people seem to love creating a cult of personality, Bernie Sanders is actually a pretty bad politician and presidential candidate. A forthright socialist, who actually understood and connected with intersectional issues rather than pivoting from them back to economics at all times, and frankly who was younger, could probably have won this primary.
I look forward to one running! Assuming they drop all the dumb anti-trade stuff.
As much as I like Clinton as a candidate - she is a weak front runner. If it were Biden running against her instead of Sanders, I suspect Biden would be thrashing her (mostly because Operation "Hug Obama and hope no one remembers 2008" wouldn't have worked out as well against Obama's VP.
It's not so much the point I disagree with, as it is the ridiculous argument being used to get there
Certainly not racism, of course!
Perhaps because the "less educated" Republicans who only care about personal tax breaks and are legitimately somehow unaware of the rest of the GOP platform are not as invested in the party and its platform, they just do not talk about politics in a sort of Socratic "I know that I do not know" sense... but the open Republicans and especialy Trump supporters I talk with know exactly what they are doing and make it explicitly clear how they feel.
I would say the main justification behind most Republicans who don't fall into the categories of those who apathetically enable the suffering of others for marginal gain on their end and the alternate right white nationalists would be those who suffer extreme cognitive dissonance and are looking for something external to place blame upon that does not undermine their worldview warped by the bastardization of religious teachings... something that is very easy to manipulate and very dangerous.
metalslimer
Member
I don't really see how Hilary is a weak front runner. Just because she's been known for so long doesn't mean she could get 80 percent of the delegates. I mean who would we consider a strong front runner from recently.
Box of Kittens
Banned
That is essentially where I am. I like that Bernie Sanders is raising a lot of the issues that he is raising, but I think he'd be a weak candidate and an ineffective president. I also find that he makes the classic error of viewing people too much as economic units, and some of his ideas are legitimately out there. I don't particularly want Sanders to be the future of the Democratic Party, but I want the party to move in his direction in certain areas.
Lol, on a scale of 1-10, my bullshit meter just hit a 12. Hillary Clinton, who has been dealing with the GOP attacking her on every angle for the past 20 years, is afraid of Bernie Sanders' tone. That's Trump level bullshit. If she doesn't want to debate because it's the shrewd political move (but a bullshit move in terms of actually helping the party and the country); then just say it. Don't go full Trump on the bullshit.
See the above.
When I heard they were getting a podcast on Channel 33 I squeed.
To be fair, the fact that a cranky old white independent socialist from Vermont is even forcing her to run a primary this long is a pretty good indication she's a weak front-runner. This year she just didn't really have any competition. (The GOP being a super duper shit-show also significantly helped)
As much as I like Clinton as a candidate - she is a weak front runner. If it were Biden running against her instead of Sanders, I suspect Biden would be thrashing her (mostly because Operation "Hug Obama and hope no one remembers 2008" wouldn't have worked out as well against Obama's VP.
EDIT: LOL, saw some of the "math" about how Bernie could win...let it go folks. Unless Clinton gets indicted or something, this is sewn up.
The only reason why the primary is still going on is because no one else besides Bernie being down 200- 300 delegates would stay in the race and pretend they have a chance to win.
Not if they wanted to continue a traditional political career.
Trying to say 'look at Hillary in 08' as if the way the votes are turning out are in anyway similar. She would not have held out as long as she did if she had the current deficits Bernie currently does.
It's a good thing Bernie has a easy election as a independent from Vermont and probably doesn't care if he is a pariah among democrats.
they don't even remember 2000, how can you expect them to remember the 1860s
metalslimer
Member
I think Bernie then becomes a marginal candidate no one cares about. It would be closer but it seems like Biden didn't run because he realized the party would back her over him
Orbis Tabula
Member
Oh, dang. Tesseract got got? When did that happen? Hopefully it's not permanent.
It's not so much the point I disagree with, as it is the ridiculous argument being used to get there
Lol, that's fair
Eh, people are stubborn in primaries, especially Dem ones. Obama's team knew we had mathematically locked up the primaries in '08 for about six weeks before Clinton dropped out. Pfeiffer and Favreau bring it up in their podcast with Simmons, where they joke about how they thought they'd be running against Hillary for the rest of their lives.
In terms of '08 - Clinton's strategy has been to appeal to Dems who are happy with Obama and try to be his third term. Except against Biden, her entire campaign strategy goes out the window. She loses the "electable" argument, she loses the "experience argument", she loses the "charisma" argument, and lets be honest, Biden probably gets more love from Obama than Clinton would. Just saying that if we had serious candidates running against her, I don't think she'd be winning.
IMO; Biden would have destroyed Clinton. She loses the establishment edge, the DNC stays neutral at best, and Biden can run much harder on an "Obama's 3rd term" platform than Clinton could. Add in that he would have challenged her in the South, while Sanders would have taken much of his normal states, and Clinton wouldn't have had a path to victory.
His extremely successful kickstarter campaign is the reason he's still here, under normal circumstances his funds would've dried up after Super Tuesday.
In all honesty, Biden would have cruised to the nomination had he been able to run. He would have got to use Clinton's plan, while being old lovable Uncle Joe. It would have been the most boring election ever. Even the general would have been a joke.
Bernie wouldn't have been able to expand past where he was in the early summer had Biden jumped in.
Good, he and his campaign need to be called out on their rhetoric and hypocrisy concerning it.
I agree with your last sentence here but I'm not sure Biden is a serious candidate. He's never been a serious contender for president before, and it's not like he hasn't tried!
That said, I think if Biden thought he could win he would have run, but Clinton had locked up too much establishment support by the time he started to get into the race and he decided he didn't have a route. Invisible primary stuff.
Basileus777
Member
Biden would have had to get serious much earlier, jumping in late Summer would have been too late.
Captain Pants
Killed by a goddamned Dredgeling
The saddest part is that we'll never get to see a Biden vs Trump debate.
The things I would have done to get a seat at one of those...
Basileus777
Member
Or even a Biden vs Cruz debate.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
No, Biden COULD have won this election cycle! He is way more popular that Hillary Clinton. But his son died, so he decided now was not the time for his family.
He didn't even try this cycle. It was just rumors and popular support.
Yellowtail
Member
I think Biden is really really overrated as a candidate. There's a reason he flamed out twice previously in national races. He made like three gaffes the day before he announced his decision this year, including weird revisionism of the Bin Laden raid that the White House had to walk back. And for all the talk of Clinton's enthusiasm gap, she at least has always had a strong base of older women and minorities. I don't see what Biden's winning coalition is in a 2016 primary.
That said it would have been fascinating to see him in the race. Unlike Clinton whose been forced to be restrained, Biden would have had no qualms pulling punches in the debates. A noun, a verb, Wall Street.
That said it would have been fascinating to see him in the race. Unlike Clinton whose been forced to be restrained, Biden would have had no qualms pulling punches in the debates. A noun, a verb, Wall Street.
Or a repeat of Biden vs Ryan.
His favorability is higher because he didn't run for president.
Well, with Biden in, Sanders becomes a total non-threat and probably only wins the caucus states he's won so far, along with Vermont and New Hampshire. Clinton still carries the South but more narrowly. Biden takes Michigan, Clinton's win in Ohio is more narrow (but her margin of victory in Illinois probably expands), and Pennsylvania becomes a true battleground between Clinton and Biden. Missouri goes to either Clinton or Biden, but if Clinton took it, it would probably be because Sanders was a spoiler.
You are postulating a Biden run but keeping The current dynamic of how she had to run VS Bernie.
She has more establishment support then Biden.
Biden might have challenged her in the south but she still has the advantage, but Biden being more right leaning means others states that Hillary lost are back in play:
It's a completely different primary then, a much more tradtional one.
Biden wouldn't have the same level of Internet donation to support his campaign either. So he wouldn't have the ability of outspend her like Bernie has been.
President Sanders - there is only enough space for one establishment candidate in this race
If you want someone that would cut into Bernie's voter base - you need to be running Warren not Biden
eBay Huckster
Member
every day i love the decision i made to auto-replace "establishment" with "WWE" a little bit more
If Biden was such a strong candidate he would not have dropped out in 88 and gotten 1% if 08. Obama and Clinton despite her faults got 17 million votes against the once in the lifetime candidate.
Hillary chased out the sitting Vice President of the United States from running. I'll give you the honest and trustworthiness but that's it. The party wanted Hillary and not Joe for x y and z reasons.
Biden would not have been Gore and chased out Sanders like Gore did to Bradley. Biden has a much longer record for Sanders team to pick apart and owning the Obama record too. He is to the right of Hillary on some issues.
Hillary chased out the sitting Vice President of the United States from running. I'll give you the honest and trustworthiness but that's it. The party wanted Hillary and not Joe for x y and z reasons.
Biden would not have been Gore and chased out Sanders like Gore did to Bradley. Biden has a much longer record for Sanders team to pick apart and owning the Obama record too. He is to the right of Hillary on some issues.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
His favorability was pretty high when he ran for VP!
superdeluxe
Member
Wasn't the thought that Biden might have jumped in if Clinton had fallen on her face during the first debate?
I seen it, but I always believe in giving folks enough rope to hang themselves. THis dude built the gallows and grew the hemp for the rope
To quote the Lisa Ray vehicle to stardom "Players Club"
This dude is ill.
User 463088
Banned
Also, Hillary could have taken actual shots at Biden. She really hadn't been able to with Bernie. You don't punch down, so early in the race she could overtly try to limit his appeal. She had to let him run add a message candidate. That allowed him to gain traction, and I'm not sure how much she could have done about that, to be honest. Her margins in the South wouldn't have been as obscene, but I don't think he captures any of them. Bernie would have probably not been viable in a few though.
That's all spin. When there are rumors saying that people want Biden to run, and Politico stories saying that there would be popular support for Biden to run, the source of those rumors and stories is one guy and his name is Joe Biden.
That's how candidates test the waters to see what would happen if they actually ran.
Biden found out what would happen! Then he didn't run.
Even when he loses he stays winning though. He can lose an election and still win at life!
No, around the first debate was near the deadline that Biden could've jumped in, so people were thinking it was then or never. They even had an "emergency Biden" podium in case he did jump in right before the debate.
User 463088
Banned
You can't pretend that a section of Bernie's support isnt just Not Clinton. In a competitive three person race, Bernie is a distant third....especially when the other candidate is to the Right of Hillary.
My assumption is that a) Biden had his heart in it and b) He announced the same time Clinton did.
...I did not know how much I wanted to see this until now.
Indeed. I don't think he ever considered it. The dude's been through so much - I think he's just more or less done and wants to enjoy this time he has in the WH. EDIT: While normally I would say he ran out some test balloons and got them shot down, I do think losing his son took his heart out of it completely. He probably did some basic due diligence, and if Clinton would lose to him by like 30 points, he might have done it, but losing your son, and feeling like it's happening all over again (after he lost his wife and daughter earlier)...I think mentally it just shut him down.
A) This, of all years, is the year where Biden's gaffe-prone campaign would have been absolutely fine. Trump would have kept stealing the spotlight, and people this year apparently seem to not care at all
B) Biden's coalition is basically younger voters (especially when Sanders drops out) who see him as lovable Grandpa Joe, people who want to see Obama, the third term, people who don't like Clinton, and he would get fairly decent minority support, especially due to his relationship with Obama. In that race, a lot more articles about Clinton and Obama not getting along would have come out, and Clinton's minority support amongst Af-Am would decrease some. Also, Biden would get a much higher percentage of the LGBT vote than Sanders did due to both Obama and Biden's work on those issues.
I don't think Clinton supporters realize that Clinton's coalition is basically "not young Sanders fans" because it's only a two way race. Many of the folks supporting Clinton for electability or experience are doing so because they have no other options. Biden would steal a decent chunk of that vote.
That's true. But I also think there is a lot of sympathy for what he has been through, and that would carry on for a decent while (at least through the primary).
Spoiled Milk
Banned
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked