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[Spoiled Milk]

I just want to add that he's talking about the event of an economic crisis where it becomes untenable (in his opinion) to repay debt obligations because he's worried about rising interest rates (which is true; interest payments will be 500bil by 2020, which is an alarming increase).

Now picture what happens during an actual economic crisis. The economy crashes. Investors flee the market. The US is spending huge amounts to keep it afloat. It is buying the debt of industries to prevent the layoff of American workers. And then the Donald says "ok, maybe we should call up our foreign investors and say we're having a lot of trouble with this." Boom, instantaneously, a million economists lunge at him and tell him that investor confidence is obligation number one for his administration in this time of uncertainty and that he is an idiot. He goes "oh, ok".

No default. No refinancing of debt. Duh. Seriously, this is a dumb statement, but that's about it. Move along.

Meanwhile, the real takeway from this: he's not afraid of debt! Huzzah! I can basically rest easy for 4 1/2 years knowing the government will never have a president that gets a hard-on for budget cuts. Seriously.

 

[hawk2025]

Yes macho but a whole month more of the Bernie bus, seeing the awful threads I have to read in the OT, people responding repeatedly to foreigners who vanish after every major primary, huelen, etc. when will it end????

My favorites!

They know so much about how so much better things could be.

 

[GutsOfThor]

=D

God dayum! Looking good for Hillary! Absolutely abysmal for trump.

 

[Macho Madness]

Political Polls ‎@PpollingNumbers
National General Elections Among Hispanics:

Clinton 83%
Trump 3%

Reforma newspaper

I love the hispanics!

 

[NeoXChaos]

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 9m9 minutes ago
West Virginia Democratic Primary
- May 10 (29 Delegates):

Sanders 47%
Clinton 43%

R.L. Repass & Partners poll

 

[User 463088]

I love the hispanics!

Hahahahahaha..... OMG. Werk.

 

[GutsOfThor]

I love the hispanics!

Hahaha yes! Mi gente making me proud!

 

[Holmes]

Funny how the CNN poll has a bigger Clinton lead but has Trump winning on the economy, whereas the ABC poll has Clinton winning on the economy.

 

[Fenderputty]

jesus christ

This guy is so much worse than Cruz

Cruz wanted to send us into default during the last debt ceiling negotiation. He's just as bad if not worse.

Btw, he obviously wouldn't burn debt obligations because much of that is debt to Americans. Remember, Americans first. If anything, he would probably try to negotiate with foreign debt holders, which... don't hold that much US debt, anyway.
.

Why do you think negotiating with foriegn holders only isn't bad? Because it's ducking stupid.

 

[plagiarize]

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 9m9 minutes ago
West Virginia Democratic Primary
- May 10 (29 Delegates):

Sanders 47%
Clinton 43%

R.L. Repass & Partners poll

That gap has shrunk substantially. MOMENTUM?

Spoiler

lol

 

[User 463088]

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 9m9 minutes ago
West Virginia Democratic Primary
- May 10 (29 Delegates):

Sanders 47%
Clinton 43%

R.L. Repass & Partners poll

That's actually a lot better than o thought. Is take that no question. If she can hit 43-45... I'm happy.

 

[ivysaur12]

I love the hispanics!

who are the 3%

who

 

[Y2Kev]

She won't. Sanders outperforms his polling typically and will now from here on out because Clinton voters have no reason to vote. I see 38%.

 

[Y2Kev]

I hope Hillary has super delegate noms to roll out after Kentucky so she can say she will be the presumptive nominee

 

[ivysaur12]

I hope Hillary has super delegate noms to roll out after Kentucky so she can say she will be the presumptive nominee

I agree. Especially if she wins KY

 

[Macho Madness]

The fuck is Kik and why am I being asked to use it?

 

[Bowdz]

I hope Hillary has super delegate noms to roll out after Kentucky so she can say she will be the presumptive nominee

Agreed.

She needs to make sure that the media narrative is "Hillary Clinton clinches nomination" even if Bernie stays in until June 7th. The media environment will take care of the rest.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Don't confuse this for me knowing whether or not you could, but like the EV popular vote compact, I don't think it necessarily violates the Constitution since states have so much power on voting.

Forgive me if this has been discussed before, but what are people's thoughts on the popular vote compact? I'm generally supportive of the idea of electing the president via popular vote, so when it was first introduced I was very much in favor of the compact as a clever way to implement a popular vote without eliminating the Electoral College, and hence without the need to amend the Constitution. Over time, I've come to have doubts that this would be the best means to achieve a national popular vote.

I think an amendment, as difficult as it would be to pass, would certainly be a much cleaner way to establish a popular vote. As it stands there are a number of logistical issues that should be solved before implementing a popular vote, and the compact approach is basically to do this in reverse order. The National Popular Vote website does have an extensive section dedicated to countering criticisms of the proposal, but I don't find all of the answers completely satisfactory. Several of the answers seem to be hand waving, relying on a given issue being unlikely to come up, pointing out that a similar flaw exists in the current system, or suggesting that Congress can fix the issue later. Not that these aren't necessarily valid points at times, but I think if we're going to implement major reforms to our presidential elections I'd prefer that we really get it right. A couple of issues I'd like to see addressed:

-As it stands we're not really running a presidential election, but rather 51 separate elections, each with their own rules. If we're going to elect a president by popular vote, then I'd prefer to see the election run by the federal government instead of the state governments (this seems especially important in the event a recount is needed).

-I'd prefer the election not just be first past the post. The Bayh-Celler Amendment that passed the House in 1969 would have established a runoff in the event that no one gets 40% of the popular vote. That wouldn't necessarily be my solution but either a two-stage election or something like instant runoff would make sense.

-I'd miss the drama of states being called during election night. OK, this one isn't a serious objection, but I actually do think election night is particularly exciting to watch under the current system. At least the fun of watching people diablos about red states getting called first would be replaced by watching people diablos about the popular vote because red precincts are being counted first.

So, anyway, I've gone from an enthusiastic supporter of the compact to thinking that while it's not necessarily a bad idea, it's certainly a flawed idea. I'd love to see the popular vote established via amending the Constitution, even though I know the chances of that happening any time soon are, to say the least, quite slim.

In any event, I'd take it over the other proposed reform of having every state split their votes by district, a la Maine and Nebraska. Just say no to gerrymandering a Mitt Romney presidency.

 

[dramatis]

Does anyone know if Bernie's campaign has actually been courting superdelegates or are they just announcing it on tv and waiting until the convention to talk?

 

[VendettaRed07]

I heard the greatest logic ever on fox last night.

"So, Republicans haven't really done well with hispanics anyway. Whose to say Trump won't do better than the last guy?

Also men love Trump right? You know what 50% of hispanics are? Men! He should do fine."

 

[RastaMentality]

@JohnBernan: JUST NOW: asked Trump spokersperson @KatrinaPierson if Paul Ryan should be Speaker if he doesn't support Trump. Her answer? "NO." @NewDay

LOL

 

[Macho Madness]

Does anyone know if Bernie's campaign has actually been courting superdelegates or are they just announcing it on tv and waiting until the convention to talk?

They've been losing superdelegates.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Trump will get 50% of black voters, cuz, 50% of black voters are men! We are doomed guys, we shouldn't have picked Hillary!

 

[NeoXChaos]

I hope Hillary has super delegate noms to roll out after Kentucky so she can say she will be the presumptive nominee

she is going to need another 110 to roll out on that day to clinch. She should be at around 1750 pledged + 522 supers = 2,276 on May 17th.

 

[User 85168]

I'm a man, do I have to vote for Trump now? Oh God

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I'm a straight, white upper middle class man with a religious upbringing. I'm basically a key Republican demographic.

I guess I have no choice but to vote for Trump

(lol)

 

[Particle Physicist]

Trump proposes the destruction of the world economy.

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/6/11607464/trump-haircut-default-debt

This really should be a separate thread because holy fucking shit.

 

[HUELEN10]

The fuck is Kik and why am I being asked to use it?

If you don't know, it means you're officially old. Lots of the youth are using it to organize political events.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Trump proposes the destruction of the world economy.

http://www.vox.com/2016/5/6/11607464/trump-haircut-default-debt

This sort of thing is why I take the idea of Republican defections from Trump more seriously than Democratic defections from Clinton. The majority of Republicans will fall in line behind Trump, but the number of Republicans who happily voted for Romney but understand just how destructive Trump would potentially be to the economy is not insignificant. As Nate Silver put it, there's a big difference between winning 93% of Republicans and winning 85%.

 

[User 463088]

The fuck is Kik and why am I being asked to use it?

Even I know what Kik is....

 

[Fox318]

I don't see how you can actively want Super Delegates to be part of the process.

Clinton is ahead 3,135,834 votes (that have been released)

That and the electoral math should be the only numbers that matter.

 

[Box of Kittens]

That gap has shrunk substantially. MOMENTUM?

Spoiler

lol

The only kind of momentum that matters is retroactive momentum.

 

[Macho Madness]

Obama's approval ticked up to +6 today.

 

[NeoXChaos]

https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/728578595979853825

 

[Y2Kev]

I don't see how you can actively want Super Delegates to be part of the process.

Clinton is ahead 3,135,834 votes (that have been released)

That and the electoral math should be the only numbers that matter.

They're a part of the system and one of their designs is to speed this up. So I'd like to see that happen.

 

[Macho Madness]

I love the hispanics!

Just realized this was misleading. This was a poll of Mexicans.

Living in Mexico.

 

[User 85168]

Just realized this was misleading. This was a poll of Mexicans.

Living in Mexico.

liberal lies again

 

[Kangi]

https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/728578595979853825

Trump's disastrous foreign policy is one of the main reasons I'm glad to have Hillary as the nominee. It's hard not to trust her more on that issue.

 

[Macho Madness]

Jennifer Rubin (conservative journalist at WaPo) has ummm.. some words for the Republican party

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...stop-trump-then-remake-conservative-politics/

 

[Basileus777]

Sam Wang unloads on 538 and the idea that data somehow lost this cycle.

Did data journalism lose – or just data pundits?

I see in today’s New York Times a column critiquing journalists on their coverage of the Republican primaries. Overall it’s a good piece, but one statement pops out: “data journalists have screwed up this year.” This comment misses an important point. The people who have come under criticism are actually a hybrid of journalist and pundit – which might be the problem.

Data-driven nerds carry the potential to give readers an unvarnished look at politics, free of hype. I think their perceived lack of success over the last six months stems from the fact that they have mixed up two roles a bit: synthesizing what they report (journalism) and stating what they conceptually think should occur (punditry). Let me explain.

In the best-case scenario, data can assist journalism tremendously. But this requires keeping one’s biases out of the analysis. I am no stranger to this problem. In August and September 2014, I failed to fairly evaluate evidence that a Republican wave was coming. This year, I was able to describe Trump’s rise because I paid close attention to my commenters, who objected when I inadvertently cherrypicked the evidence. So first: thank you, commenters!

It was possible to recognize Donald Trump as a serious contender sometime between July 2015, when he might have been just another flash in the pan, in first place but not necessarily the front-runner; and January 2016, when he had lasted long enough that Republican nomination rules tilted the playing field toward him. By early February, his nomination was near-inevitable.

FiveThirtyEight committed to a wrong path with the Trump’s Six Stages of Doom theory last July. In the following months, it has been uncomfortable to watch this statement get walked back so gradually and grudgingly. It appeared to be a case of motivated reasoning, a cognitive process in which evidence, however persuasive, is more likely to be rejected if it is disagreeable. And there is no doubt that they find Trump to be disagreeable. But that is not why readers turn to them.

In addition to motivated reasoning, it is conceptually wrong to treat live questions in political science as if they are settled. (Ezra Klein, I am looking straight at you.) For example, take political scientist Hans Noel’s hypothesis that “The Party Decides.” That idea has taken quite a beating this year. I do not think it was wrong per se – just taken by pundits as a fact rather than a concept to be tested.

There is one more problem, which I think is endemic to all media professionals. Their job is to keep you interested – and keep you coming back. As an amateur, I do not have this problem. Nobody at my institution evaluates me well for getting clicks or page views. If anything, it is the opposite. So if there is no drama, I am okay with my dear readers not coming back.

For example, back in late January I nearly posted a brief essay saying it was all settled on Hillary and Trump, and I was going to mothball the Princeton Election Consortium until summer. Obviously, I didn’t do that.

In contrast, websites like FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times are under pressure to create interest and suspense, even when the outcome is not in doubt. The result is wrong statements like how much Indiana mattered and how Cruz had a chance there. Both statements were false. But we expect our data pundits to be better than cable and television news media, which are polluted with such statements. It is a disappointment when they play the clickbait game.

However, there is a way out. Data-oriented websites have lots of people with high analytical skills. To make their mark in journalism, they have to tell interesting stories with data, but the stories have to be both probable and compelling. Some, like Neil Irwin and Josh Katz at The Upshot, do a great job at this. They and others will have plenty of chances to make good in the months ahead.

 

[Y2Kev]

Jennifer Rubin (conservative journalist at WaPo) has ummm.. some words for the Republican party

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...stop-trump-then-remake-conservative-politics/

She's talking about ha-self

 

[PBY]

Jeff RoeVerified account
‏@jeffroe
Post mortem's on POTUS race must include a healthy dose of Kasich. Defeating Trump required a head to head. Kasich kept that from happening.

WOOF

 

[B-Dubs]

So it sounds like the FBI has concluded that the e-mail thing is bullshit and the Clinton interview is a formality so they can officially close up the investigation while saying they did everything they were supposed to do.

 

[Macho Madness]

Kasich's support probably would have gone 75/15 to Trump. If you were supporting Kasich, you were not wild about Cruz.

(The other 10 would just give up and tweet #ImWithHer)

 

[Macho Madness]

So it sounds like the FBI has concluded that the e-mail thing is bullshit and the Clinton interview is a formality so they can officially close up the investigation while saying they did everything they were supposed to do.

Sauce?

 

[B-Dubs]

Kasich's support probably would have gone 75/25 to Trump. If you were supporting Kasich, you were not wild about Cruz.

If anything they should have let Kasich run 1-on-1 against Trump as he creates a clear contrast. Pinning all their hopes on Cruz was madness given that everyone hates him.

Sauce?

CNN reporting it. They say

The interviews, we’re told, are focused on whether classified information was mishandled, and the security of the server. So far officials tell us, no, there is no evidence of criminal wrongdoing at this point in the investigation, but, again, the investigation is not over.

Which is code for they have nothing and are looking to wrap everything up.

 

[HylianTom]

CNN is reporting that Lindsey Graham will not be voting for Trump or Hillary.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Sam Wang unloads on 538 and the idea that data somehow lost this cycle.

Very nice. It really gets at a lot of issues I have with 538's approach to this primary, as well as to data journalism in general (which again is not to say that I'm not a fan of some of their work). There's some very good discussion in the comments section as well.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

So it sounds like the FBI has concluded that the e-mail thing is bullshit and the Clinton interview is a formality so they can officially close up the investigation while saying they did everything they were supposed to do.

Spoiler

Sanders & Trump supporters

 

[Kangi]

CNN is reporting that Lindsey Graham will not be voting for Trump or Hillary.

Graham's been telling Trump off since the beginning. Rolling over and voting for him would've been even more stupid than McCain voting for him.