Clinton, further, gets a boost from the incumbent: Barack Obama’s job approval rating has inched back over half in this poll, to 51 percent; 43 percent disapprove, the fewest since January 2013. And slightly more say things have gotten better for the country under Obama than say things have gotten worse, 48 vs. 43 percent.
Both those matter: Clinton gets 88 percent support from Obama approvers, and an identical 88 percent among those who say things have gotten better under his presidency. Trump wins broad backing from their opposites -- but less broad, 74 percent in each case.
That result marks another difficulty for Trump, shortfalls in his base. While Clinton wins support from 84 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents who are registered to vote, Trump’s support slips to 76 percent among leaned Republicans. And Clinton’s at 77 percent among liberals, vs. Trump’s 69 percent among conservatives.
In fact, the movement away from Trump in expectations has occurred chiefly in core GOP groups. Compared with January, this poll finds 14-point increases among strong conservatives and leaned Republicans alike in expectations that Clinton would win a matchup with Trump. Thirty-nine percent of strong conservatives and 36 percent of leaned Republicans now say so.
Partisans usually come home in the course of the campaign. But as reported yesterday, just a bare majority of leaned Republicans say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the party’s nominee. Among those who’d be dissatisfied, just 53 percent say they’d vote for Trump in the general election, dropping to 40 percent among those who would be very dissatisfied. Among the latter group, 35 percent say they’d back Clinton; a quarter say they’d find a third party or sit it out.
