Box of Kittens
Banned
Well they kind of pinned their hopes on Cruz out of desperation. And given the mutual hatred between Cruz and the establishment, it's hard to see how they would have been able to force him out anyway.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
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Well they kind of pinned their hopes on Cruz out of desperation. And given the mutual hatred between Cruz and the establishment, it's hard to see how they would have been able to force him out anyway.
GutsOfThor
Member
Source?
RustyNails
Member
Wang demolishes nates. This is what me, and various others on this board have been arguing. Sam succinctly notes that 538 is mixing punditry with data, which led silver to go on his dumb headlines about Trump. Where are all the naysayers? Not talking about the poligaf prediction challenge. But others who adamantly argued for Silver and relied on "history".
Disappeared into the abyss as usual.
I want a public recanting from Kharvey for all his defense of 538 last year.
Macho Madness
Member
So essentially, what I've been saying for months about 538 and Nate. If they'd just stuck to their "the polls are right" philosophy, they would have never been wrong. But they fell into the punditry trap of playing prognosticator about things they didn't know anything about.
yeah there are 300 million people but most of your Presidents have served in the
-U.S House
-U.S Senate
-Governor of a State.
-United States Cabinet
-Vice President
No average joe is getting there unless through those five avenues which limits it to a group of 100, 435, 50 and 15 cabinet positions like Secretary of State.
-U.S House
-U.S Senate
-Governor of a State.
-United States Cabinet
-Vice President
No average joe is getting there unless through those five avenues which limits it to a group of 100, 435, 50 and 15 cabinet positions like Secretary of State.
Pretty much. Nate just refused to admit that the GOP is in fact that racist.
balladofwindfishes
Member
538's dismissal of Trump is an embarrassment. Nate's big rant about how it's impossible for Trump to be the nominee looks ridiculous in hindsight.
It's pretty cool that we're living through a political realignment.
Even if Trump gets destroyed by Clinton in a landslide there's no way the Republicans are going to be able to close Pandora's box.
Their next winning political platform is going to look a lot different. I don't think they can just get a mulligan and go back to being pre-Trump Republicans like nothing happened.
It's going to be ugly in the short-term, but long-term good for the country if we get a sensible conservative party again.
Even if Trump gets destroyed by Clinton in a landslide there's no way the Republicans are going to be able to close Pandora's box.
Their next winning political platform is going to look a lot different. I don't think they can just get a mulligan and go back to being pre-Trump Republicans like nothing happened.
It's going to be ugly in the short-term, but long-term good for the country if we get a sensible conservative party again.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Jennifer Rubin (conservative journalist at WaPo) has ummm.. some words for the Republican party
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...stop-trump-then-remake-conservative-politics/
No lies detected.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...0-11e6-81b4-581a5c4c42df_story.html?tid=a_inl
Interview could still be problematic, but it sounds like they are coming to the same conclusion most of us came to last year: stupid decision, but ultimately not illegal.
Macho Madness
Member
By god the donor class will try though
This is now three GOP senators whose public position is that they won't vote Trump. I'm hoping that this encourages others in the party who are feeling similarly that their sentiment is a perfectly valid feeling.
They're entitled to their feelings. And that's.. okay.
User 85168
Banned
Taniel ‏@Taniel 5m5 minutes ago
Rahm's disastrous approval rating: 25/62. His disapproval among black Chicagoans: 70%. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/chicago-racial-divisions-survey.html
I wonder if he'll be able to bring his numbers up the next few years...
Rahm's disastrous approval rating: 25/62. His disapproval among black Chicagoans: 70%. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/07/us/chicago-racial-divisions-survey.html
I wonder if he'll be able to bring his numbers up the next few years...
Seriously, Sam is 100% on point. All the polling in 2015 had Trump up by a shitton. This didn't come out of nowhere. Just like the current polling shows Hillary demolishing Trump in the fall. This shit isn't complicated but it's boring to report. It's bad for business. Mainstream journalism is broken.
He'd have to get super aggressive with cleaning up the police force for that to happen.
People just didn't want to admit our politics can be this broken. This is the sort of thing that happens when you ignore the facts and that happens far too often with political reporting.
Jennifer Rubin (conservative journalist at WaPo) has ummm.. some words for the Republican party
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...stop-trump-then-remake-conservative-politics/
He's correct. I hope the right ignores this advice.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
No. I wouldn't be stunned if he doesn't complete his term.
RustyNails
Member
Oh yes. Please.
She can't keep getting away with it!!!!!!
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I simply will not believe this will happen until it actually happens.
This year was a perfect storm of stupidity. If you didn't have 15 book-tour candidates, there'd be no Trump. If you had 2012's primary rules, there'd be no Trump. The GOP will surely take some procedural lessons from this debacle, but the "not right-wing enough" argument is still easily made.
The 'fuck you, I got mine' contingent.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
I was on the fence about him leading up to the last election. It was everything he could do to keep a lot of shit under wraps until afterward. I sincerely regret my vote.
Also, regarding last night-- where were all you Mario 64 haters in 1996? Hell, I bought an N64 at launch *for that game* played it, was seriously underwhelmed and sold the system to rebuy later when there was a better library. But if you suggested it wasn't at least the best game of the year (or perhaps of all time) you'd be scoffed at. Sure, the graphics were amazing, but that's one thin-as-hell Mario experience.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This sounds like an SNL skit lol
What will SNL even do this election, when reality feels like a skit.
User 85168
Banned
What was the alternative, though? Chuy wasn't gonna win...
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I don't think the media is gonna be that bad.
so far it was about the gop clusterfuck... but that was a legit clusterfuck. Sanders never was treated as a legit threat, just an annoyance to Clinton, which is how it went down.
And now I watch CNN and see all the pundits and news talk about how the GOP is splitting and how Trump is dealing with historic unfavorables. sure, they bring in people to defend each, but the news casters usually pivot back to the facts of the polling.
so far it was about the gop clusterfuck... but that was a legit clusterfuck. Sanders never was treated as a legit threat, just an annoyance to Clinton, which is how it went down.
And now I watch CNN and see all the pundits and news talk about how the GOP is splitting and how Trump is dealing with historic unfavorables. sure, they bring in people to defend each, but the news casters usually pivot back to the facts of the polling.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Had the field narrowed as fast as it had in the past, we would have either known Trump was the nominee, or he wouldn't have been. Trump benefitted hugely from the divided field both in optics and in numbers.
VendettaRed07
Member
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
If more people like me had given up on Rahm a little faster he might have.
Wait.. is Bernie serving-up the flesh of the 1% there?
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
I bet he doesn't even have a permit to cook there.
VendettaRed07
Member
literally eating bankers
Yeah. Just going to leave this alone.
JesseEwiak
Member
Karen Lewis getting cancer really sucked for non-cancer related reasons. If only for the reaction from the Right that a teacher's union leader was going to be Mayor of the 3rd largest city in the country.
Poodlestrike
Banned
Taking "eat the rich" a bit literally there.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Someone didn't quite think that comic through all the way.
Fenderputty
Banned
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
"he's not going away" followed out by a #dropouthillary hashtag. right.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean, the Cain Train lead the polls once so you have to do some analysis instead of just reading the polls. But they believed that the party could control the nomination process, with no theoretical basis, and Nate refused to accept that the GOP is a white nationalist party.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Yeah, Nate's single biggest problem was becoming a pundit (ironic given his savaging of pundits). He also put too much stock in The Party Decides (which, as Sam pointed out, is not to say it's a bad theory, just likely in need of refinement) which really messed up his priors. He also applies Bayes' theorem to polls in questionable ways, but that's really starting to veer off in a technical direction. Again, the biggest problem is Pundit Nate.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
I still say people should see Cain as a signal, not noise.
We went from never seeing a Cain-like candidate making it anywhere in primaries, to a Cain-like candidate briefly leading, to a Cain-like candidate winning. Seems like a solid trend to me.
It became obvious by November that Trump wasn't just a flash in the pan. Being skeptical until that point would have been perfectly valid.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Herman Cain for VP, please.
The more I think about it, I'd like to see the DNC make an offer to Bernie to solve his issues with the rules committee delegate selection. They should offer to go with his 50-50 split with one joint appointee under the condition that Bernie drops out after his next loss. If he refuses, say tough shit and let them have their protest vote on the floor of the convention. It won't be the first time progressives have had floor votes over party rules.
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
That cartoon is a couple of months old, it's just getting revived for this "Drop Out Hillary" nonsense.
Also, Bernie arguing about representatives in the convention is really annoying. Is he planning some sort of procedural shenanigans? Is he game for Cruz-like fuckery?
Also, Bernie arguing about representatives in the convention is really annoying. Is he planning some sort of procedural shenanigans? Is he game for Cruz-like fuckery?
Yeah, well, well, well the Benghazi commission will be coming through with a BOMBSHELL any day now.
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