BlastProcessing
Member
If the electorate entirely consisted of white dudes, I would agree with you. To win, Trump needs to grow his base, where does that growth come from?
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam
- Thread starter Spoiled Milk
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If the electorate entirely consisted of white dudes, I would agree with you. To win, Trump needs to grow his base, where does that growth come from?
Children.
Jack Remington
Banned
I'm sorry you have no stamina, Metaphoreus. If you find discussion tiresome, you could always take a break.
Sanders spokesperson even asked angry supporters to move back from the stage. Sorry Bernie, but this is what you get when your message is "everything is rigged". I wonder if this is slowly dawning on them, or if he just doesn't care.
Small upside: Trump is capable of doing enough damage to himself while we wait for Sanders to acknowledge the inevitable.
Mark Cuban's great contribution to society is his Silicon Valley self. Will he also give us a 400 EV Hillary win?
Bernie is trying his damnedest!
I guess there might be some chaos over the VP pick at the RNC
Bruce Springsteen
Member
Low voter turnout is why he will win, he doesn't need to win more than what he has now, Just has to flip a couple swing states which I think he is very capable of doing
It's only May, once the nominations are official and real attack blitz on Clinton starts, they will make her out to be the she-devil, which she is already viewed as by many liberals even
The attack blitz on Hillary has been going on for decades and never really stopped. Her numbers will only go up once the primaries are over.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
You're right, which is why her numbers are so low as is
Jack Remington
Banned
Right now you have the problem of Bernie supporters buying into the right wing attacks. Some of them may stay salty, but by mid summer I expect that Benghazi and the email nontroversy will go back to being exclusively conservative wingnut shit.
It's interesting: I've seen a few Bernie supporters now talking about how Fox News is the only place telling the unbiased truth about Clinton, and how the MSM is so corrupt. These sweet summer children. I almost want Bernie to get the nomination just so they can watch what Fox News will do to him.
Yea, that's why I believe her numbers are as low as they will ever be and even then she's still ahead of Trump on most polls, even the recent one that had everyone freaking out.
If there's one thing HRC and Trump have in common is that they been under constant media scrutiny for basically the entirety of their time in the public eye.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
They are practically tied in polls, Trump is going up and up in these polls
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0Y21TN
BlastProcessing
Member
Months of hard core attack ads on Clinton have a good chance to increase Dem turnout amongst the core. The more contentious it is, the more it will drive turnout. And the more he attacks Clinton, the harder he has to work to win over women. It's a sticky situation.
You can't win anymore with just white dudes.
What states does Trump flip? Look at the demographics and tell me how he possibly wins Florida? Even if he sweeps the Rust belt it isn't enough for him. He will need to play defense in places like Georgia and Texas (he will win Texas but he will have to spend more resources there then Republicans have in decades). How does he carry Colorado or New Mexico? Latino turnout sure as hell isn't going to be down.
A poll with 27% undeclared? Come on...
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton
Trump already has republicans (most) unified behind him.
Clinton is still dealing with Sanders. His supporters will need time to heal, but I believe most of them will support Hillary in the end.
I'm also willing to bet Trump will drive Latinos to vote (for Hillary of course) in record numbers, this is not reflected in the polls at all.
Metaphoreus
This is semantics, and nothing more
Bruce Springsteen
Member
I believe this will be offset but the record number of republicans Trump has been getting out to vote
People forget it's only a couple states he needs, the rest of the states will still be red or blue like they always are
BlastProcessing
Member
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I don't think people forgot about Ohio and Virginia and Florida. There just isn't any reason he'd win them.
You are making it sound like the "couple of states" he needs is an easy road for him.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/57mm7
He basically needs to win PA, OH, NC, and FL. I would call that a near impossible path to him just on demographics alone.
Hillary just needs to take one of those states from him and he's done.
We're not even taking into account the states that might be in play now because Trump is the nominee. The RNC will have to waste time and money defending states like AZ, GA and UT.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Fill the biggest states red until you hit 270 and then turn the rest blue. Easy. I mean it it has no relationship to logic or why Trump would somehow win those states but you can mathematically swing it for sure.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
We say it's impossible for him to win all these swing states, but we also thought it was impossible for him to win the nomination before the primaries started. I think I'm over thinking "his run is over". People overestimate American intelligence, this country voted for Bush AFTER they saw the Iraq war play out, I put nothing past the general population
Macho Madness
Member
It's not impossible Trump could win, it's just improbable at this point. Best not to say definitively ether way at this point.
Oh of course it's not impossible, anything can happen.
I just see no reason to think that him winning is the most likely outcome tho.
BotoxAgent
Member
Nah. Trump is fuq'd
For the sake of accuracy, it's an active FBI investigation. Let's call it what it is, instead of coming up with cutsie names such as nontroversy and nothingburgers.
It's not a matter of being salty or buying into 'right wing attacks', it's voting for the candidate you believe in. Hillary isn't that person, and I don't think there is much that will change that opinion for some people. I think that's perfectly fair.
Why do people continue to attack Bernie supporters when supposedly Hillary has it locked down and has nothing to worry about from the investigation? Wouldn't you think that the best course is to try and lure them into your tent as opposed to burning the village down?
The vast, vast majority of Bernie supporters are cool-headed folks who will do the logical thing come November. They realise that Hillary and Bernie agree far more than disagree, and they don't buy into the asinine, reality-challenged rhetoric suggesting that she's a "secret Republican" or "Republican-lite." When the nomination is settled, Bernie is going to acknowledge this for all to see. He'll reason that a Republican winning the White House would be disasterous for the long-term prospects of his vision being fulfilled, and most of his supporters - while not necessarily being enthused - are going to agree with his assessment.
I don't think folks are attacking all Bernie supporters. I see that some language is loose and non-exact, lacking an explicit "NotAllBerniefolk" qualifier, but my suspicion is that these attacks are against the kookier segments of his base. The math-challenged, the ones who refuse to acknowledge hard realities of our political system's structure, the ones who seem a bit too eager to cling-onto old Republican attacks.. those folks are going to draw mockery. This shouldn't exactly be a shocking thing.
I don't think we said anything. There are like 15 gaffers who picked him to win as far back as like August.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
When I say "we", I'm not referring to GAF, but just general public and media pundits
Jack Remington
Banned
Because no one cares about the email nothingburger on principle: Republicans use it as one of their long series of nothingburger scandal accusations (see Whitewater, Monica Lewinski, Obama's birth certificate, Solyndra, Benghazi, Fast & Furious, now this), and Bernie fans care because Hillary is their political opponent. Once Bernie drops out, that part of it should go away, and it can go back to being something that only Republicans care about.
They should get some shit for it though. You don't use the dark side against another Jedi in a friendly duel.
Nate Silver, who admittedly was totally wrong on this, made the point that I think is accurate here -- the people who argued that Trump couldn't win the nomination were arguing that he couldn't win in spite of the polls saying he'd win. The people who are arguing that Trump can't win the presidency are arguing that the polls are accurate in saying he can't win. Two different situations.
Shorn of priors, the data has said for almost a year that Trump has a great chance to win the nomination and a terrible chance to win the general. People added a lot of priors to reflect their belief that he couldn't win the nomination, which turned out to be wrong. But the same isn't really true for the general.
Aaron Strife
Banned
But they're already practically tied, man!
Trump is enjoying a dead cat bounce that aside from Ras still doesn't put him in the lead. I'm not going to call this a sure thing but it's at least 80-20.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
But polls are starting to show he is neck and neck with Clinton, should we doubt the polls now?
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Always trust the aggregate of polls.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html
+5.7%. Not neck and neck.
EDIT: I beat Jack Remington!
Jack Remington
Banned
Her polling average right now is still +5.7
Trump No on PredictIt is the best investment you can make right now at 60c a share. It's like a 6 month Treasury bond with a 60% yield.
And it has a lot of outs. Hillary can get indicted tomorrow, and you still get paid after Biden parachutes in and beats Trump.
I just said no!
If the polls start showing Trump winning then yeah, we'll have to come to terms with the fact that America is over. But this is the moment you'd expect him to be strongest and he's still behind by a lot.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
I expect him to be at his weakest right now, especially because it's before the republican machine really gets behind him
Sounds fair enough.
If they think they have it wrapped up, courting is more important than putting someone on blast.
Maybe some people care because... I don't know it's a serious investigation and looks like shit to the party they support? Never hurts to look at the man in the mirror as opposed to pointing the finger at everyone else.
It could be possible that some of these 'Bernie Bros' are more concerned with the integrity of their candidate than adhering to some terrible Star Wars analogy.
Aaron Strife
Banned
The republican machine is already behind him. His relative rise in the polls is due to people already coalescing behind him.
This is his bounce and it's doing shit-all for him.
He has yet to be heavily targeted by the Clinton machine either. This isn't a one way street.
gutter_trash
Banned
polls being neck n neck is good for deterring complacency
This should, statistically and historically, not be his weakest point since he is now the presumptive Republican nominee and there is not technically a Democratic nominee. His strongest point will likely be soon after the Republican National Convention.
The demographics do not support a Donald Trump win at this time, meaning it is not the most likely outcome.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Btw Romney didn't get a post-RNC bump. It isn't a given that Trump will get one. It might have the effect of bringing in any other Republicans who've yet to rally behind him, but I can't imagine him making great overtures to independents or soft Democrats who aren't already in his camp.
Jack Remington
Banned
It's not about integrity. It's about, "According to my interpretation of Statutes A and B, and executive orders C and D, technically you're guilty of X, Y and Z. You lose!" It's the King v Burwell of political controversies.
"Technically the ambassador of Norway telling you he likes My Little Pony is information that's born classified! You lose!"
"It doesn't matter if the drone program is common knowledge, it's still technically an SAP program! One of our most closely guarded secrets! You lose!"
"It doesn't matter that no one at the State Department thinks this was sensitive information, technically X department was the original classification authority, and they think it is. You're gonna get in trouble!"
Basically it's Moops all over again.
"Technically the ambassador of Norway telling you he likes My Little Pony is information that's born classified! You lose!"
"It doesn't matter if the drone program is common knowledge, it's still technically an SAP program! One of our most closely guarded secrets! You lose!"
"It doesn't matter that no one at the State Department thinks this was sensitive information, technically X department was the original classification authority, and they think it is. You're gonna get in trouble!"
Basically it's Moops all over again.
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