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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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There is a Jill Stein rally in my city today. I know about this because its all over my feed and I was specifically asked to go see what a true politician who "cares for the 99%".
 

ampere

Member

Bowdz

Member
There is a Jill Stein rally in my city today. I know about this because its all over my feed and I was specifically asked to go see what a true politician who "cares for the 99%".

I don't think anything of hers can be classified as a rally. They're too small. They are gatherings or associations.
 
Why does Rasmussen even get included in averages? They're showing Obama disapprove +6. How can people build statistical models using obvious trash?
I don't want to just close off sources that produce numbers I don't agree with, but I seriously have no problem dropping Ras from the aggregate. Their only aim is to skew it as much as possible to generate pro-GOP headlines. It's a joke that anyone takes them seriously.
 
Plouffe pulling no punches:

David Plouffe ‏@davidplouffe 2h2 hours ago
Clear the selection of a VP is distasteful for a narcissist like Trump. Pence is like a leg bracelet probation officers forced him into.

He's right, if Trump could he would run alone or go with a family member.
 
Little brother's friend came over and we played some black ops 2 local multiplayer on Wii u. In the game's start menu cinematic there is a moment showing Reagan, my younger brother that is a trump supporter saw that and started chanting REAGAN REAGAN REAGAN at us. He also said that he was a pro at first person shooters and would dominate us. Five games or so later, (I won or tied nearly all the games, bragbragbrag) having come in 4th almost every time and struggling to get a single kill in some matches, he angrily denounced us as teaming faggots that always ganged up on him, and stormed out of the room 🍉
 

ampere

Member
Someone made an interesting comment on twitter, even if Citizen's United is overturned could a billionaire theoretically self fund their own campaign with billions of dollars?

I looked it up, and this is what I found: Davis v. FEC SC case seems to state that it's 1st amendment infringement to limit self financing rules. I'm thinking that this is so similar to Citizen's United's ruling that it might also be affected by a CU change, but maybe not?
 
What a contrast between Romney's kids and Trump's. Going into the 2012 GOP convention a lot of us assumed they'd humanize Romney and it could be successful. Romney is a nice guy, he has a great sense of humor and genuinely seems like a great dad. His sons recognized all that and wanted to show the country that side of their father. Instead the convention was almost entirely about how great a businessman Romney was, and how terrible Obama was. And then there was Clint Eastwood. It seemed like Romney's sons were the smartest people in the room.

On the flip side Trump's kids seem like enablers of their father's insanity. The reports about his sons wanting Gingrich as VP blow me away. Why? Not to mention the son in law willingly being trotted out to defend Trump on Jewish relations.

I'd bet on Manafort being out (and replaced by Trump's sons) before the first debate.
 

itschris

Member
Pence, confronted with his past statements against negative campaigning:

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zc4o99G.jpg

https://twitter.com/SopanDeb/status/754443858008805376
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
What a contrast between Romney's kids and Trump's. Going into the 2012 GOP convention a lot of us assumed they'd humanize Romney and it could be successful. Romney is a nice guy, he has a great sense of humor and genuinely seems like a great dad. His sons recognized all that and wanted to show the country that side of their father. Instead the convention was almost entirely about how great a businessman Romney was, and how terrible Obama was. And then there was Clint Eastwood. It seemed like Romney's sons were the smartest people in the room.

On the flip side Trump's kids seem like enablers of their father's insanity. The reports about his sons wanting Gingrich as VP blow me away. Why? Not to mention the son in law willingly being trotted out to defend Trump on Jewish relations.

I'd bet on Manafort being out (and replaced by Trump's sons) before the first debate.

Agreed on pretty much all counts. Though I might argue Newt would be better than Pence because Trump's less likely to take shots at someone he actually might like. Christie was probably the best of the bad options though.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Agreed on pretty much all counts. Though I might argue Newt would be better than Pence because Trump's less likely to take shots at someone he actually might like. Christie was probably the best of the bad options though.
Christy and Bewt were both fine. Not because they were good choices politically, but for their potential for cohesiveness together. trump needs someone bombastic and loud like he is, and the advantages of Pence, "party unity" etc I think are wholly imagined and probably unimportant anyway.

Mike Pence isn't going to convert a spurned establishment figure like Bush, or a never trump billionaire like the Kochs. Trump should do Trump, it got him this far. Still think it would be a miserable failure and bad for America should it succeed, but at least it would be real.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Christy and Bewt were both fine. Not because they were good choices politically, but for their potential for cohesiveness together. trump needs someone bombastic and loud like he is, and the advantages of pence, "party unity" etc I think are wholly imagined and probably unimportant anyway.

Mike pence isn't going to convert a spurned establishment figure like Bush, or a never trump billionaire like the Kochs. Trump should do Trump, it got him this far. Still think it would be a miserable failure and bad for America should it succeed, but at least it would be real.

Exactly! Trump's campaign was a screaming supernova of pure hate. He can't change that no matter what he does so he may as well steer into the coming crash.
 

itschris

Member
NBC News: Is Potential Clinton VP Tom Vilsack the Best-Kept Secret in Politics?

Detractors quip that a face-off between Vilsack and Kaine is a battle of the beige, but both are pragmatic choices for a nominee who wants to keep the focus on Donald Trump and reinforce her ticket's seriousness with an experienced governing partner.

Vilsack has one clear advantage over every other potential pick: a personal relationship with Clinton that goes back more than 40 years. He also has more executive experience than the rest of the field as well as the potential to actually deliver a key state. He also might help mitigate Democrat losses with rural whites.

Meanwhile, Vilsack's image as the least interesting man in the world conceals a quiet intensity born of a compelling personal story that includes addiction and violence.

Vilsack started life at an orphanage in Pittsburgh. His adoptive mother struggled with alcohol and prescription drug abuse, disappearing from her family for hours in the attic during benders. In junior high, Vilsack watched her attempt to commit suicide — an experience he has recounted publicly as the head of a White House task force to address opioid abuse in rural America.

...

Vice presidential picks usually fail to deliver much on geographic concerns, but allies insist the still-popular Vilsack would win Iowa for Clinton. "If Tom Vilsack were on the ticket, Iowa would be a slam dunk," said former Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin. "Without a doubt, that would be a given."

Obama won Iowa by a larger margin than he did Virginia, which also has more electoral votes, but Clinton might need the boost more in Iowa. The Midwest is Trump's path to victory, and Iowa, with its overwhelmingly white electorate, is at the top of Trump's wish list.

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Clinton just three points ahead of Trump in Iowa — within the margin of error — while she's nine points ahead in more diverse Virginia.

"Polls show she's weakest with white males, well, he's a white male," Harkin said. "He would appeal to white males all over this country. He's a guy who wears his cowboy boots and is down-home kind of guy."

...

Meanwhile, sensible but dull may not be so bad in an election year with two candidates who have such high unfavorability ratings as Trump and Clinton.

"In terms of skeletons, there's nothing lurking on this guy," said Craig Varoga, who managed Vilsack's presidential campaign, but is no longer involved.

...

Still, Vilsack has some considerable vulnerabilities on his left flank.

He was chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council (between Evan Bayh and Harold Ford), a favorite bugaboo of the left, and is the top VP pick of Will Marshall, who runs the DLC's offshoot think tank. Vilsack is a proponent of the Trans-Pacific Partnership and other trade deals seen as good for farmers. His work at the Agriculture Department has given him plenty of exposure to agribusiness, like Monsanto, another boogeyman of the left.

Early in his tenure, liberals objected to his too-quick firing of former USDA official Shirley Sherrod under pressure from Glenn Beck and Andrew Breitbart, who had released a misleading, edited video of Sherrod. And some liberals think Vilsack gave away too much in fights with Republicans over food stamps, which are part of the farm bill.

That said, he has no Wall Street ties to speak of, has supported abortion rights, and earned an "F" from the National Rifle Association when he last ran for re-election, which puts him ahead of some potential VP rivals on those scores.

An interesting perspective, though I'm not so sure any VP choice is really going to have much of an effect on white males with Hillary at the top of the ticket. What do you think? Assuming she's going to choose a safe, experienced white male anyway, would Vilsack be any better than Kaine? On one hand, he doesn't appear to have any scandals in his past (like the gifts Kaine received), but Kaine does speak fluent Spanish, which could be an asset.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
Did anybody listen to this American Life today? Had an interesting story on a rich Texas republican donor coming around to Trump, after meeting him and learning he was a "good man."

It was actually charming in a way.

Sorry, a candidate can't have the word sack in his name. Next.
Buttsack McBottomnuts is disappointed in this simple minded name-ism
 

Wilsongt

Member
Did anybody listen to this American Life today? Had an interesting story on a rich Texas republican donor coming around to Trump, after meeting him and learning he was a "good man."

It was actually charming in a way.

Nacissist do know how to charm people. It's one of their characteristics.
 

itschris

Member
BuzzFeed: Mike Pence Criticized Bush 41 In An Editorial For Signing Civil Rights Act Of 1991

As executive director of a conservative think tank in Indiana, Mike Pence wrote an editorial sharply criticizing then-President George H.W. Bush for signing the 1991 Civil Rights Act.

The act was supported by 93% of the Senate and 88% of the House of Representatives. Only 33 Republicans voted against the bill. The bill was passed in response to a handful of cases in the Supreme Court that made it harder for women and minorities to win discrimination cases against employers.

While the bill passed through Congress with overwhelmingly bipartisan support, it was opposed strongly by many in the conservative movement, including commentators like Pat Buchanan who argued it would create “reverse discrimination.”

...

“Whether it was Bush’s cynical reversal of the ‘no new taxes’ pledge or his vacillation on the 1992 (sic) Civil Rights (quota) Act, he has managed to alienate a sizable portion of the Reagan Republican coalition,” wrote Pence, then working at the Indiana Policy Review. “Somehow, miraculously, Dan Quayle has managed to keep his distance from these objectionable acts and has, more than any other politician in America, engendered real credibility as a spokesman for the strong-defense, free-market, and tradition-driven platform of that coalition.”
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Forget white males. If Hillary's going to win, she has to get every non-white person and white female to vote for her. I think Warren can actually help a lil there. But only a lil.
 
What a contrast between Romney's kids and Trump's. Going into the 2012 GOP convention a lot of us assumed they'd humanize Romney and it could be successful. Romney is a nice guy, he has a great sense of humor and genuinely seems like a great dad. His sons recognized all that and wanted to show the country that side of their father. Instead the convention was almost entirely about how great a businessman Romney was, and how terrible Obama was. And then there was Clint Eastwood. It seemed like Romney's sons were the smartest people in the room.

On the flip side Trump's kids seem like enablers of their father's insanity. The reports about his sons wanting Gingrich as VP blow me away. Why? Not to mention the son in law willingly being trotted out to defend Trump on Jewish relations.

I'd bet on Manafort being out (and replaced by Trump's sons) before the first debate.

You're probably right, but...

 
Forget white males. If Hillary's going to win, she has to get every non-white person and white female to vote for her. I think Warren can actually help a lil there. But only a lil.
This has what I've been saying. Except I think it would help more than a little

Kaine helps with Virginia. Warren helps with women in every state
 
I mean the same way that the sack won't help with men, I don't see how the warren helps particularly with women.

If you're going to point out a group she appeals to it's just the left flank of the base.

Soccer moms in the centre aren't going to give a shit. Even if this thread swoons.
 

itschris

Member
I agree that that the VP pick never matters very much, but it's fun to speculate (it does seem like Palin was a net negative, even though I'm sure Obama still would have won even if McCain made a better choice). And selfishly, I hope for someone who's more exciting like Warren rather than Kaine or Vilsack.
 
They probably dug into his past better than Trump's vetting did.

I mean Trump was freaking out when he picked Pence and wanted to drop him

Clinton probably has a library on Pence. While Trump was busy doing business and getting to know business people, Clintons been in Politics for what, the past 30-40 years? She probably knows the people in politics in and out.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I think Warren helping to raise the gender gap tide everywhere could be veerrrrry interesting. Downticket effects. Maybe an extra Senate seat or two. A closer margin in the House. Team Clinton has to tantalized by that possibility.

As far as VP bonus goes, 538 found that the average home state bonus from a VP since 1984 is around 4%. I wonder if this has held over time (especially as the electorate has grown less elastic/more polarized).

The difficulty in testing this kind of thing comes with a lack of sample size and the incredibly tight numbers that we're working with. It'd be incredibly difficult to discern a real bonus from just statistical noise.
 
Someone made an interesting comment on twitter, even if Citizen's United is overturned could a billionaire theoretically self fund their own campaign with billions of dollars?

I looked it up, and this is what I found: Davis v. FEC SC case seems to state that it's 1st amendment infringement to limit self financing rules. I'm thinking that this is so similar to Citizen's United's ruling that it might also be affected by a CU change, but maybe not?
The problem isn't citizens its Buckley v. Valeo. We need to divorce the idea money is equivalent to electoral speech and subject to strict scrutiny under the 1st amendment.

There needs to be some scepticism of restrictions but we've gone crazy.
 
I think Warren helping to raise the gender gap tide everywhere could be veerrrrry interesting. Downticket effects. Maybe an extra Senate seat or two. A closer margin in the House. Team Clinton has to tantalized by that possibility.
I think this idea of her having this degree of effect is fanciful.

If picking her was really that powerful then she may as well be the candidate not the running mate.

Which I guess is sort of fitting. Since ultimately, a lot of Warrenmania feels like what people are really after is a backdoor Warren Presidency.

It's weird because by many accounts the VP role is a sack of shit with no real power. Unless you're an Obama or a Bush and want a Biden or need a Cheney.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
I mean the same way that the sack won't help with men, I don't see how the warren helps particularly with women.

If you're going to point out a group she appeals to it's just the left flank of the base.

Soccer moms in the centre aren't going to give a shit. Even if this thread swoons.

I think Warren helps with middle class moms. Warren is about families. And, most importantly, Warren does NOT have politician stink on her. She comes across as authentic and honest and she can hit Trump harder than anyone can and she's been REALLY successful at it.

Kaine, Sack, Bayh and co, etc., they are all politicians. They reinforce Hillary's strengths and her weaknesses. Warren is a true contrast.

Tom Perez has no experience IMO and therefore is too great a contrast. And also doesn't really help with anyone except maybe hispanics and men, but I'm not sure on men and if hispanics need a hispanic VP to not vote for Trump then I'm not sure if they are thinking clearly.

So my argument is:
- Hillary has an image issue more than anything else
- Warren is the exact opposite
- Warren reinforces Hillary's strengths while offering an antidote to her weaknesses to a greater degree than any other pick
- If it really doesn't matter anyway, then at least let us swoon

The senate ain't gonna do shit anyway.

For the record, I think the VP in Clinton land is going to be a nothingburger. Huma will have a bigger say in policy.
 
I don't think most middle class moms know who any of these people are...

I think none of them help. But they can hurt. And there are clear ways Warren can hurt.

And yes Huma as First Lady will have much more say anyway.

A VP Warren will just sit in the Eisenhower building spinning.
 
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