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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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manakel

Member
I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Well yes, that addresses the technical definition of "outlier" but not the colloquial definition.

Technically an outlier could be a result that deviates from the mean with good reason and be worth paying attention to.

Colloquially "outlier" has come to mean something that's SO far off that it should just be discarded...like the LA times thing with two black guys (one of whom likes Trump) out of a 3K sample, or the IBD poll that's laughably republican up until the last week when it's arbitrarily moved to the mean without explanation.

You'll notice that all of those "colloquial" outliers are more than two standard deviations from the mean :p
 

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

You should be able to get a retraction for that.
 

Cyanity

Banned
I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

This should be pretty easy to get retracted. Just contact them and see how it goes.
 

rjinaz

Member
Dude does not own any of the voting machines r/donald and other donald trump supporting places are talking about. Any problems with the voting machines are mostly caused by human error.

That and the voting machines he has a loose connection to aren't even being used this election. I think I read that on snopes. Always a good place to go to if you want more info on a conspiracy.That's to the person who asked.
 

Snake

Member
I'm going to save this one for November 9th. It's going to be delicious to read, over and over and over...

By all means, gloat away if Democrats significantly outperform their current aggregate polling. Nobody would be happier to see that than me.

But until then I'll stick with what we know and keep overly exuberant assumptions to a minimum.
 
Why is she doing so bad with college educated in the South?
Dude, the south is the south. Your pastor tells you who to vote for. Your parents say that they will disown you if you vote Dem. The list goes on and on. I've heard and seen it all. I will say that ATL is getting to be more progressive.

Source: I was born and raised GA.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I wasn't sure where to post this, so I figured this thread would be my best bet.

And old classmate from high school messaged me on Facebook, and notified me that I was in a Yahoo News video. So, I clicked the link and watched it. The video/article was about how Trump is appealing to voters, and low and behold, there's my picture right in the middle of the video. The thing is - the picture they used of me was from an Obama rally back in 2012. It's used completely out of context, and it looks like I'm transfixed on Trump.

I am furious. What are my options, here? Should I email Yahoo and ask them to take it down? Ask them to put up a disclaimer about what the picture actually is? In no way do I want my image associated with that monster.

Call the editor and ask for a retraction.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wait, how would Puerto Ricans flooding into Florida even be eligible to vote in that state? Don't you have to maintain residency for a good bit of time before you can do that?
 

spunodi

Member
Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

1090188.jpg
 

zelas

Member
absurdly reactive model, gonna be in the high 80s again overnight, everyone else is over 90%

In our polls-only forecast, Trump has narrowed Clinton’s lead in the popular vote to roughly 6 percentage points from 7 points a week ago, and his chances of winning have ticked up to 17 percent from 13 percent.

...

And we’re certainly a week or two removed from the period when every poll brought good news for Clinton: Plenty of polls now show negative trend lines for her (in addition to others that show a positive trend). But the race hasn’t fundamentally changed all that much, and Clinton remains in a strong position.

Today's update saying "meh" is not an absurd overreaction.
 

Gruco

Banned
By all means, gloat away if Democrats significantly outperform their current aggregate polling. Nobody would be happier to see that than me.

But until then I'll stick with what we know and keep overly exuberant assumptions to a minimum.

If Hillary is polling in the 5-8 range as you say, what is overly exuberant about the final margin being larger? We know this happened for Obama, why, and that the same factors are just as if not more true in 2016.
 

Cyanity

Banned
Wait, how would Puerto Ricans flooding into Florida even be eligible to vote in that state? Don't you have to maintain residency for a good bit of time before you can do that?

Puerto Rico is a territory of the US, ergo your Puerto Rican ID gives you the same voting power that a citizen from the mainland has. If you move to a US state, then you can vote.
 
Dude, the south is the south. Your pastor tells you who to vote for. Your parents say that they will disown you if you vote Dem. The list goes on and on. I've heard and seen it all. I will say that ATL is getting to be more progressive.

Source: I was born and raised GA.
Georgia at least seems to be on a similar trajectory as North Carolina, just a few cycles behind.

I've mentioned this before but I kind of want to write a book on the trends in the South and how that will impact elections going forward. The point where black Democrats in the South are able to win state elections will turn this country on its head.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Mason Dixon poll of Missouri;

Trump 47
Clinton 42

Blunt 47
Kander 46

I'd be more than fine with Hillary losing if we got Kander instead.

Puerto Rico is a territory of the US, ergo your Puerto Rican ID gives you the same voting power that a citizen from the mainland has. If you move to a US state, then you can vote.

I know they're citizens and they can vote. What I mean is, don't you have a waiting period when you move to a new state?
 
Wait, how would Puerto Ricans flooding into Florida even be eligible to vote in that state? Don't you have to maintain residency for a good bit of time before you can do that?

It's a US territory. They're treated just as if they moved from another state.

Only, the state they are moving from didn't allow them to vote in presidential elections. And now they can.
 
I do want to say though that I think Silver deserves a lot of credit. He popularized out of sample demographic regressions and poll averaging and brought a lot of rigor to election prognostication which wasn't there before. It's hard to overstate how astonishingly shitty election analysis was in 2004. Silver upped everyone's game. His biggest problem is that he's no longer competing in the same pundit environment as 2008. That, and his fickle contrarian streak has been hurting him. His competitors are just much better than him at this point, and Silver hasn't been able to keep up.

Nate Silver is the Nintendo of pollsters.
 
After an hour and a half, I finally finished placing my vote at an early voting poll center. That's a weight off my mind.

Now to diablos for two weeks.
 
After an hour and a half, I finally finished placing my vote at an early voting poll center. That's a weight off my mind.

Now to diablos for two weeks.

I just realized my ten year GAF anniversary is two days before election day.

I know you guys were going to give me a tag to celebrate...but all I want is the house.

Make it happen
 
Today's update saying "meh" is not an absurd overreaction.

relative to literally everyone else that has polling aggregation as part of their model, it is absurdly overreactive

the cybit defense is better: that it's more reactive by design and we don't actually know which approach is gonna be right
 
the dudes who took over the Oregon federal facility got off because the jury.

look for them to do it again.

I hate to be that guy but white people with guns get away with a lot
 

Snake

Member
If Hillary is polling in the 5-8 range as you say, what is overly exuberant about the final margin being larger? We know this happened for Obama, why, and that the same factors are just as if not more true in 2016.

Obama overperformed in 2012 but underperformed slightly in 2008. It certainly "feels right" to think that Hillary will do better due to superior funding advantage and a more robust GOTV operation, but presidential elections are complicated and I think it's absolutely wrong to assume that HRC will get a guaranteed +3 bonus over her polling on Nov. 8.
 
Hillary Clinton is guaranteed a +4.2069% boost over her polling on November 8th because memes have overtaken Jesus as this country's largest driving force
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
the dudes who took over the Oregon federal facility got off because the jury.

look for them to do it again.

I hate to be that guy but white people with guns get away with a lot

GODDAMN IT.

I thought the FBI (and reality) had an ironclad case?
 
Obama overperformed in 2012 but underperformed slightly in 2008. It certainly "feels right" to think that Hillary will do better due to superior funding advantage and a more robust GOTV operation, but presidential elections are complicated and I think it's absolutely wrong to assume that HRC will get a guaranteed +3 bonus over her polling on Nov. 8.

Obama over performed in 2012 because conventional wisdom said minorities wouldn't turn out at the same level they did in 2008, and pollsters built that assumption into their models.

They were wrong of course, thanks largely to Obama's ridiculous GOTV machine.

Look back at articles about the 2016 race and you'll see many analysts saying the same thing. "Clinton won't be able to capture minorities like Obama did". And this assumption is built into a lot of very strange models that have minority turnout lower than 2012...because Clinton is an old white lady so of course they'll stay home.

Those models that do this are going to be laughably, hilariously wrong on election day.
 
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