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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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C

Chichikov

Member
Mobius and pet octopus said:
edit:

Via twitter:
C3vmepiWIAEOxcZ.jpg
Click to expand...
Are you saying that Barack and Michelle are siblings?
Wait a minute, they do have the same family name...
 
T

thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Someone on fox was calling democrats stupid for delaying Sessions because that's going to allow him to vote on and confirm Devos, and I wonder if maybe they have a point?

BTW, it's a little satisfying to see Republicans complain about obstructionism and Trump being blamed for everything after all the years of them doing it to us.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
If Trump's presidency starts crashing I Hillary will come back for two weeks.
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Left not being as energized for Hillary hurt us.
Click to expand...

Cynicism/naivete/lack of energy. All of it amounted to much the same thing - people didn't think Trump would be as bad as he seemed, so what did it matter about voting?

Meanwhile, Hillary's apparently returning to the speech circuit, and is going to release a book of short essays.

Cue cries of "Her speeeeeeeeeeeeeeeches". :p
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Chumley said:
Also, Tomi Lahren was deeply embarrassing and out of her depth on the panel.
Click to expand...
She basically barely spoke. I'm basically of the belief Tomi probably sucks without a script where she vomits out drivel in non stop speech for 3 mins. She'd likely bomb on an actual news network.
 
D

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
TheLaughingStock said:
There's plenty of reasons. She probably would be a great politician and could do great work on behalf of the public. Her rhetorical skill in the GE was impressive. Definitely has the potential to be great and could win.
Click to expand...
She hates politics. She has zero interest. Let it go.
 
D

Diablos

Member
PS4 is getting boost mode and external hard drive support in Trump's America! I really should give him a second chance. #MAGA
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Dan said:
She hates politics. She has zero interest. Let it go.
Click to expand...

*nods*

The only reason she'd run is to be a unifying candidate for both the Left and the non-Racist right. A black woman who could unify the US may be something that is needed come 2019, when most people will be deciding whether to run, and she'd have cross-aisle support. But it's all pie-in-sky pondering at this point - we don't know how fractured the US will be even next week, let-alone in 2 years.

Diablos said:
PS4 is getting boost mode and external hard drive support in Trump's America! I really should give him a second chance. #MAGA
Click to expand...

I'm well-annoyed by the Boost Mode news. I went for a Slim instead of a Pro two months ago, because there was no sign of a Bloodborne Pro-Patch. Now they've said you can basically overclock a Pro PS4, and that would help a bit in BB at least.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Pixieking said:
I'm well-annoyed by the Boost Mode news. I went for a Slim instead of a Pro two months ago, because there was no sign of a Bloodborne Pro-Patch. Now they've said you can basically overclock a Pro PS4, and that would help a bit in BB at least.
Click to expand...
Sorry to hear that! Sell your slim maybe?
 
C

Chumley

Banned
Diablos said:
PS4 is getting boost mode and external hard drive support in Trump's America! I really should give him a second chance. #MAGA
Click to expand...

Around the end of the year I'm probably gonna buy a Pro and one of them 55" LG OLED TV's, still haven't touched TLG for more than an hour and will hold off on Horizon till then too. Look forward to playing them both on it along with RDR2.

Dan said:
She hates politics. She has zero interest. Let it go.
Click to expand...

Trump has no chance. He'll never be President. Let it go.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 7m7 minutes ago

The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!
Click to expand...

SOMEONE SEND THE BAT SIGNAL TO JARED
 
1

1.21Gigawatts

Banned
I wrote a lengthy comment elsewhere and would like to hear some counter arguments or suggestions for refinements.

I feel this is the issue where we have the best chances to reach Trump supporters.

9 out of 10 jobs lost since the year 2000 have been lost due to automation.
http://conexus.cberdata.org/files/MfgReality.pdf
But Trump blamed the problem on immigration, outsourcing and trade deals.
Arguably these populist talking points are what won him the presidency, due to their popularity in the rust belt.


But lets talk about what this means:
1. The US economy is powered by immigrants. For example: The H1-B visa is the single most important document for the American high-tech industry.
The effects Trumps anti-immigration policies will have on one of the biggest industry branches will be devastating.
Here is Prof. Michio Kaku talking about the importance of the H1-B for academia:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NK0Y9j_CGgM

But also the lowest of jobs are affected. There is another entire industry thats only kept running because, mostly Mexican, immigrants do jobs Americans don't want to do.
Here is an excerpt of a study done by the institute of labor economics:
https://twitter.com/SeanMcElwee/status/826911146678636546

2. Trumps proposed protectionist measures will increase prices tremendously for every American, which hurts poor and middle class Americans the most, who live paycheck to paycheck and any price increase means they will have to make it through the month with less, even though they already focus on only the necessary things => decrease in quality of life.
Additionally it will probably start a trade war with China and maybe even the EU.
The price increases alone will nullify any positive effects on the job market entirely.
Protectionist measures have never in the history of mankind lead to economic growth.
They just don't work long term.

3. Trumps anti-immigrant rhetoric divides the nation of immigrants. The poor and middle class start blaming each other for their problems, based on skin color and country of origin.
Meanwhile the Top 1% get to keep their rigged system that keeps poor people poor and makes rich people even richer.


These are the effects of Trumps actions, but just as important as the effects of his actions are the effects of his non-actions:


4. Trump said he would bring back jobs.
But thats a gross misidentification of the real problem. The US has an unemployment rate 4,8%(January '17 numbers), that is not bad. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
The reason why the poor and middle class in the US are doing so bad is because wages are too low, as a result of an ongoing war against unions.

So, it becomes clear that the problem isn't that there are not enough jobs, the problem is that many jobs don't pay properly.

Additionally, there are millions of job openings in the US employers can't fill because they can't find applicants with the right education.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/05/10/news/economy/job-openings/

This means that the US has a huge problem with its education system, bringing me back to point 1.
The reason why US academia and the high-tech industry is so dependent on the H1-B visa is because the American education system isn't able to adequately educate Americans for the needs of academia and high-tech.
The American education system is designed for the economic realities of the 1950s, but times have changed and we now see a great disparity between what the American economy demands and what the American education system provides. This gap is covered by immigration, but it only works partially and it leaves lots of Americans behind.
This not only affects academia and high-tech, it also affects manufacturing and other typically middle class industries. The vast majority of the millions of job openings are in manufacturing and small businesses.

The reality is that 60% of the US workforce are untrained workers. People who have nothing but a high school degree, sometimes not even that.
These people have two problems:
-The economy changed and now requires more and more skilled workers
-Globalization means that simple jobs that require just basic education can be outsourced

The US not only needs a education reform focussing on higher education, it also needs an education reform focussing on skills needed in manufacturing jobs.

Here is a good article by the NYT about the issue: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/30/...y-workers-college-degree-apprenticeships.html

The US needs something like the apprenticeship system Germany has in place.
You can read up on how that system works here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apprenticeship#Germany

Germanys workforce consists of about 30% college educated people, thats the same for the US. But unlike the US, Germany only has 5-10% untrained workers. Everyone else has finished at least one 3 year apprenticeship where they learned a trade.
Thats the reason why Germany, for being a small country compared to the US, is a world leader in many industries and consistently ranks amongst the top export nations. In 2016 Germany ranked #1 once again, in front of China and the US.
https://global.handelsblatt.com/germany-to-overtake-china-as-world-export-champion-676270
Its also the reason why Germanys economy is so stable and practically immune to large scale outsourcing.


A similar system in the US would fix several problems:
1. Manufacturing industry and small business could finally find adequately educated workers.
2. Skilled workers aren't at risk of having their jobs outsourced.(at least way lower risk)
3. Wages increase. (This would also require more powerful unions/workers*)
4. The US would be better equipped to handle the problems increasing automation will cause. Because automation will only increase faster in the future.

*Germany for example has a law that requires that one third to half of any larger companies board has to be filled with workers of that company.
http://www.worker-participation.eu/.../Countries/Germany/Board-level-Representation

Germany and its economic success shows that the American argument, that more powerful workers and higher wages would hurt the economic success of a company, are not true.
It just means that you stop competing with Asian regions for who can manufacture the cheapest products, and start competing with nations like Germany and Japan for who can manufacture the best and most innovative products.


To conclude:
Trump misidentified the cause of the problem, his actions to fix that will hurt the US.
At the same time he is ignoring the real cause(insufficient education system), and his inaction on that front will hurt the US even more.
Click to expand...
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Mobius and pet octopus said:
We need a new clock:

0 Days since Trump caused a Constitutional Crisis.


edit:

Via twitter:
C3vmepiWIAEOxcZ.jpg
Click to expand...

This was originally a Sanders meme. No wonder the centrists are losing when you can't even generate your own meme magic and have to rely on scraps from Real Heroes.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Also, Michelle being elected would be genuinely awful. I have nothing against her personally - the contrary, I have a deep admiration for what she has endured - but if you're telling me in admiration county of 320 million people, the two best qualified candidates happen to be a husband and wife, something is wrong with you. The fact that the best way to get started in politics is being married to an existing get politician is a gross smear against meritocracy and the ethos of the American Dream. For a country that rejected the monarchy, you're keener on dynasticism than most!
 
D

dramatis

Member
1.21Gigawatts said:
I wrote a lengthy comment elsewhere and would like to hear some counter arguments or suggestions for refinements.

I feel this is the issue where we have the best chances to reach Trump supporters.
Click to expand...
There's an HBR opinion written about how Trump doesn't talk about automation, and while I think this might be an angle to get in with the voters, I think how much traction it gets depends on how quickly automation gets up and going in the next few years.

https://hbr.org/2017/01/why-trump-doesnt-tweet-about-automation
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Crab said:
Also, Michelle being elected would be genuinely awful. I have nothing against her personally - the contrary, I have a deep admiration for what she has endured - but if you're telling me in admiration county of 320 million people, the two best qualified candidates happen to be a husband and wife, something is wrong with you. The fact that the best way to get started in politics is being married to an existing get politician is a gross smear against meritocracy and the ethos of the American Dream. For a country that rejected the monarchy, you're keener on dynasticism than most!
Click to expand...

I... am confused.

Okay, there's 16 years between Bill Clinton's second term ending and Hillary's run for president, but your point works equally well against them as it does Barack and Michelle.

"Best" is also subjective here. Best to unify the country? Maybe/possible. Best nerdy policy wonk? No. Best candidate with charisma? Who knows.

Though it's certainly true America loves its political families.
 
N

numble

Member
Pixieking said:
I... am confused.

Okay, there's 16 years between Bill Clinton's second term ending and Hillary's run for president, but your point works equally well against them as it does Barack and Michelle.

"Best" is also subjective here. Best to unify the country? Maybe/possible. Best nerdy policy wonk? No. Best candidate with charisma? Who knows.

Though it's certainly true America loves its political families.
Click to expand...
In that 16 years she was a two-term Senator and Secretary of State. I don't think Michelle would be able to match that in 3.5 years (since 2019 is when the primary season starts).
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
1.21Gigawatts said:
I wrote a lengthy comment elsewhere and would like to hear some counter arguments or suggestions for refinements.

I feel this is the issue where we have the best chances to reach Trump supporters.
Click to expand...

This is good but frankly I think a lot of Trump suppprters' eyes will glaze over.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Pixieking said:
Okay, there's 16 years between Bill Clinton's second term ending and Hillary's run for president, but your point works equally well against them as it does Barack and Michelle.
Click to expand...

Correct. Yet another reason Hillary was a poor choice.

"Best" is also subjective here. Best to unify the country? Maybe/possible. Best nerdy policy wonk? No. Best candidate with charisma? Who knows.
Click to expand...

Regardless of what x is, the odds that the two people best at x in all of America happen to be married to each is staggeringly low. If that appears to be the case, it is far more likely that there is a structural barrier to being good at x, and that marriage is one means of overcoming that structural barrier (or kinship in general, per Jeb). Rather than simply accepting this, it should be of paramount importance to break down those structural barriers, rather than embracing the notion we ought to just run political dynasties.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Crab said:
Also, Michelle being elected would be genuinely awful. I have nothing against her personally - the contrary, I have a deep admiration for what she has endured - but if you're telling me in admiration county of 320 million people, the two best qualified candidates happen to be a husband and wife, something is wrong with you. The fact that the best way to get started in politics is being married to an existing get politician is a gross smear against meritocracy and the ethos of the American Dream. For a country that rejected the monarchy, you're keener on dynasticism than most!
Click to expand...

Regardless of Michelle Obama's merits herself, the "320 million possible Presidents" thing has always been a canard. It's the most singular, powerful and arguably the most stressful position in the world. Virtually no one is qualified, and quite frankly hanging around the White House for eight years in any capacity is a solid check mark, at least to start. Just the nature of the beast.

And as we all learned this year, you still gotta be elected. There's no "dynasty" in name or in practice.
 
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