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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love
- Thread starter ItWasMeantToBe19
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ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Puzder is a wife beating anti-poor piece of shit, but they drew the line at the fact that Puzder thinks undocumented immigrants are just as good of people as everyone else.
And Trudeau is serving the Conservatives' interests by approving all the oil pipelines.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Not seeing it anywhere?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I don't think ground game matters much at all, but Nate Silver's recent piece on "ground game is overrated" is just so badly written. No instruments, no quasi experiments, just basic regression and then he seems to think that this is somehow very definitive.
cartoon_soldier
Member
4 Senators are on the fence, they aren't a No per WaPo
gutter_trash
Banned
funny you mention it, Alberta has a successful NDP provincial government... but where is the successful NDP Federal. uh wait...
Infinite Stars
Member
That's absolute bullshit and you know it. Trudeau is allowed to be criticized for his actions, including his chicken shit ways regarding Electoral Reform.
You change to PR and you never get a conservative government again, isn't that worth no longer having Trudeau be the designated ruler of Canada?
I get that, but when Trudeau backs away from the one reason why I donated to the liberals in 2015(Electoral reform) is a whole level of bullshit, especially since he literally said 2015 would be the last election under the current system.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Better stop voting because they're all the same shills.
Infinite Stars
Member
I'm not saying that Trudeau isn't doing a good job, but this notion that any criticism of him is helping the Conservatives is stupid. We're allowed to criticize him, unless Canada's free speech now has a "No criticizing the government" clause.
I think the better argument is that, by approving pipelines, they're removing that as something the conservatives can get elected to do.
whyamihere
Banned
Dr Campino
Member
That's my hometown, and though I didn't attend a public school, they do tend to skew minority-heavy in some areas, so I'm not surprised.Mr.Shrugglesツ;230247988 said:
And the university there is seeing a massive boost in interest from international students, where they already make up 20% of the student body.
http://windsorstar.com/news/local-n...ees-interest-from-american-students-skyrocket
tedrotheredro
Member
Flynn apologized to Pence:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...may-have-discussed-sanctions-russia/97852248/
So we're all good now, right?
Bonus Edit:
Dan Merica ‏@danmericaCNN
Kellyanne Conway on MSNBC: "Yes, General Flynn does enjoy the full confidence of the president."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...may-have-discussed-sanctions-russia/97852248/
So we're all good now, right?
Bonus Edit:
Dan Merica ‏@danmericaCNN
Kellyanne Conway on MSNBC: "Yes, General Flynn does enjoy the full confidence of the president."
whyamihere
Banned
FloydtheFathead
Member
You're going to be busy serving Chairman Pete.. you have no time for that.
I don't think they understand the issue at play here...
lol. I know. Still; you don't get many opportunities out here to actually be useful to the Dem Party besides lolwhatshouldwedowithallthismoney type of discussions.
lol I hope. I have an offer on the table if he wins - but I'd have to talk to my wife about it.
He's not going to win unless Perez and Ellison blow it spectacularly
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
A Facebook friend I knew from like church camps when I was a high schooler just asked if I wanted to join the Antifa in Boise. We bonded over Naruto when I was like 15.
It's interesting and weird to see people I know from youth group in a fairly conservative church split in fairly even numbers between reactionaries and lefties.
It's interesting and weird to see people I know from youth group in a fairly conservative church split in fairly even numbers between reactionaries and lefties.
balladofwindfishes
Member
No leader is going to be perfect.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Pete wins and The Dolphins win the AFC East and they meet the Seahawks in the Super Bowl.
You just need to BeCleve
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Good. Keep the connection.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Yes! We've convinced everyone we can not to like him personally. We need to attack him on looking out for his rich friends over the rest of the us.
If Albertans want oil sands in their backyard, that's their prerogative. I don't want a pipeline going through my home. Maybe you don't understand because you live in a city but I would lose my shit if the pipeline broke near my home.
Yeah, that part is stupid. We know the state/local infrastructure fell apart in the last 8 years.
At least we can shoot the stupid "should have campaigned in areas that hate you" argument down now.
You can predict 2016 vote super well based on 2012 results & white working-class share. Where Clinton & Trump campaigned didn't matter much.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Bernie would have been!
God, my kingdom for a month of a Bernie presidency. Either people would finally realize the president isn't a king (no matter how much Trump acts like it) when he gets stymied by a Republican Congress, or he'd actually deliver and we'd be all the better for it.
Although most likely they'd see him come up short on his campaign promises and conclude that Bernie never meant any of it and was bought and sold just like the rest of them, regardless of any surrounding context. Just like with Obama.
so you're a one issue voter that also thinks the pm is doing a good job at a bunch of things so then that somehow he disrespects voters. Again, if thats the case every government disrespect voters since at some point one will break a promise
What a world in which other people have to be ready to counter Trump's weird evopsych hangups
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I don't agree that we "know" these things at all.
His methodology just isn't as strong as the statements in the article.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I think there's a difference between "couldn't get everything they wanted done" and "gave up on major achievable campaign promise because it would weaken their position for reelection."
If I was an NDP voter who voted Liberal for electoral reform I'd probably never vote Liberal again unless the situation was particularly dire.
Why would hilary win Michigan and not PA,NH Wisconsin and Minnesota in the scenario that table showed. Isn't there a high number of college educated voters in Minnesota and NH and doesn't Michigan have a lot of white non college voters. If hilary lost PA and WI she should lose MI to but this table does not show that. Also the weird thing about NH is depsite the high amount of white college educated voters in the state hilary still won the state by a few thousand votes even though that table thought she would lose the state by four points. I think NH and MN are still going to be blue states for now because of their urban centres. Even with states with a high amount of white non college voters the democrats should still be able to win these states if the urban centres outvote the rest of the state, but this depends on how highly populated the urban centres are.
This isn't a firm statement, but I'm pretty sure that the main reason an NDP voter would have gone Liberal last time was if they lived in a riding that was competitive between the Libs and Conservatives, and they were focused on getting Harper out.
Box of Kittens
Banned
Don't you know regression is a magic wand for turning data into conclusions and all those pesky assumptions underlying it can easily be handwaved away?
Don't get me wrong, regression can be a useful tool, but it's also one that can be easily misused, and the conclusions Nate are drawing from this particular use are awfully shaky.
FWIW, my view would be that while campaign stops are probably somewhat overrated, it is absolutely important to have a presence in "areas that hate us" and not just at election time. There's a big difference between losing a bunch of rural counties 60-40 and losing them 80-20, especially when you end up losing by less than 70K votes spread across three states.
NullPointer
Member
In further tales of the unexpected, Moby says he knows the Trump dossier is real. From a post on Facebook from a few hours ago:
StopMakingSense
Member
And lo, as so it was foretold, Moby and Tom Arnold did join hands, and unto the people released tapes of Donald Trump being hella racist and being involved in watersports.
Moby seems like the kind of guy that is into conspiracy theories and whatnot, so I will hold off on exclaiming everything in the dossier is true and just really really hope it is.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
I legit trust Moby 100% for intelligence news
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Flynn wasn't fired for some reason.
Guess Iran-Contra 2 is going to be more dragged out.
Guess Iran-Contra 2 is going to be more dragged out.
Squee.
Eh - the biggest point that article is making is that ignoring Michigan / Wisconsin isn't why she lost - it was the Dem Party consciously pivoting away from union workers on a strategic level, and those cost Clinton and Dems big in their blue wall. They took the union voters for granted and there was enough slippage to cost us the election.
Eh, the regression analysis is strong enough to easily prove his point - that the ground game didn't make that much of a difference one way or the other.
You want to go to areas that hate you because you want to also keep the local level of your party enthused and relevant, because many of those areas switch allegiances more often than people expect, and you want to be able to capitalize (see the like 15? districts where Clinton won and the Dems literally didn't even bother running a candidate against the Republican)
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
If "reg y a b c d" leaves a zero coefficient for d while having a fairly high r-squared, that still doesn't strongly suggest that d had no impact because there could still be other omitted variables out there.
Needed an instrument or natural experiment or a regression discontinuity first before making these sweeping statements.
Needed an instrument or natural experiment or a regression discontinuity first before making these sweeping statements.
Veritigo_X
Member
#IBelieveMoby
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