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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cybit said:
Squee.



Eh - the biggest point that article is making is that ignoring Michigan / Wisconsin isn't why she lost - it was the Dem Party consciously pivoting away from union workers on a strategic level, and those cost Clinton and Dems big in their blue wall. They took the union voters for granted and there was enough slippage to cost us the election.
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Yep--which is WHY you go and campaign in most areas and don't just stay in the cities.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
If "reg y a b c d" leaves a zero coefficient for d while having a fairly high r-squared, that still doesn't strongly suggest that d had no impact because there could still be other omitted variables out there.

Needed an instrument or natural experiment or a regression discontinuity first before making these sweeping statements.
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>suggesting there are any good instruments for campaign stops
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
This is a ground game article.

And maybe there aren't! But just be less definitive in your conclusions.
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No, I agree, I think the original article had a poor point to make and I think ground game does still matter. I was more remembering the pain of trying to find good instruments for political matters from my undergrad and joking about it. There is no cov=0, it's all a lie.
 
I

Infinite Stars

Member
Apathy said:
so you're a one issue voter that also thinks the pm is doing a good job at a bunch of things so then that somehow he disrespects voters. Again, if thats the case every government disrespect voters since at some point one will break a promise
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I don't know how you got the idea that I'm a one-sided Voter. I voted NDP, because my riding is split between NDP and conservative and I'd rather have the former. I voted for the NDP on a wide array of issues, but when the last month came up and I was debating over who to donate to, I donated to the Liberal Party because I realize that it was a two way race for the government.

I'm allowed to criticize Trudeau for backing away from an issue that he (Debatable, but I know several friends who voted for Liberals over NDP in ridings in Ontario) won the election over.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Fucking hell, these "Union voters" ditched the party in '80 and haven't come back. Stop blaming the Democrats for them being shitty! They are fair-weather friends who cannot be relied upon and who flip flop depending on who's in power.

They aren't taken for granted because they're completely unreliable!
 
C

chadskin

Member
Spicey on Flynn doesn't sound like Trump has "full confidence" in him: https://twitter.com/braddjaffy/status/831265131392806915

C4k_OWTUEAApwO4.jpg
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
Moby? Oh shit. I saw him in concert in, uh, 2000! Was freaking awesome and was the peak of the "look, yeah, I know I make some annoying techno but I'm actually a badass since I play all the instruments in those songs, too" artist movement. Subsequently, I 100% trust him as a source for covert Russian intel.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
kirblar said:
Fucking hell, these "Union voters" ditched the party in '80 and haven't come back. Stop blaming the Democrats for them being shitty! They are fair-weather friends who cannot be relied upon and who flip flop depending on who's in power.

They aren't taken for granted because they're completely unreliable!
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You absolutely have to give some blame to democrats for assuming they will get the union vote. This is the general feeling within democratic circles.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
Plinko said:
You absolutely have to give some blame to democrats for assuming they will get the union vote. This is the general feeling within democratic circles.
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I can 100% get behind "don't take votes for granted". That being said, I personally can't reconcile a switch of allegiance or opting to stay home when the other side, Republicans, are worse for labor in basically every way, or that it should have been obvious to most that Trump was a shitty businessman who didn't give a crap about lower/middle-class people, lied literally all the time and was kind of crazy.

Well I mean I actually can reconcile that if your primary concern when voting is NOT economics or jobs but I'd rather not go their right now
 
T

Teggy

Member
Every reporter on Twitter right now - "Kellyanne said this about Flynn, but Spicer just said this about Flynn."

Have either of these people led you to believe they are trustworthy recently?
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
kirblar said:
Fucking hell, these "Union voters" ditched the party in '80 and haven't come back. Stop blaming the Democrats for them being shitty! They are fair-weather friends who cannot be relied upon and who flip flop depending on who's in power.

They aren't taken for granted because they're completely unreliable!
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You're actually completely and thoroughly wrong. As late as 2012

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab...ds-both-democrats-and-unions-neither-fatally/

As in 2008, being African-American had the greatest effect on someone's vote. Even if all other variables predicted a Republican voter, being African-American meant you were 78 percent likely to vote for Obama. Being nonheterosexual or Hispanic had the next greatest effect in favor of voting for Obama. A born-again Christian or a weekly churchgoer were more likely to vote Republican.

Toward the middle of the list is the effect of union membership and living with a union member. The effect is not as large as most demographic variables.

But it's not nothing; being a member of a union or living with a union member did make a person more likely to vote Democratic. At least according to the 2012 ANES, the effects of the two different union variables were pretty much identical. And the impact was about the same as the 1.7 percentage points it was in 2008.


In the ANES data set, 58 percent of union members or those living with a union member voted for Obama. If every union member or member of a union household voted as if they were not one and every other characteristic was kept constant, 51.1 percent of them still would have voted Democratic.

Obama would have lost 1.4 percentage points off his vote share in 2012 without unions. Instead of his margin of victory over Romney being 3.9 percentage points, it would have been 1.1 points.

Obviously, this sort of analysis doesn't take into account what would really happen without the union vote. The two parties would go about courting voters differently. And unions also play a big role in fundraising and organizing for Democratic candidates.

But the 2.8 percentage-point difference in the presidential vote margin is nothing to sneeze at either. It's larger than the margin in two of the past four elections, and it's about the same as it was in 2008. Even if unions make up a lower percentage of voters than at any point in the past 60 years, they are a player in presidential elections. And if a future Supreme Court decision suppresses union power further, it would not be good news for Democrats.
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The most amazing thing the Republicans have done is manage to convince progressives that union workers (and unions by extension) are bad things.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
Cybit said:
You're actually completely and thoroughly wrong. As late as 2012

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab...ds-both-democrats-and-unions-neither-fatally/



The most amazing thing the Republicans have done is manage to convince progressives that union workers (and unions by extension) are bad things.
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Just look at counties in Wisconsin tells us that isn't true. Even in the close years Gore and Kerry were winning those areas and they were the best regions for Mondale and Dukakis.

Disclaimer: I have no idea why I have a hard on for Wisconsin in particular, I've never even been there.
 
N

NullPointer

Member
aspiegamer said:
Moby? Oh shit. I saw him in concert in, uh, 2000! Was freaking awesome and was the peak of the "look, yeah, I know I make some annoying techno but I'm actually a badass since I play all the instruments in those songs, too" artist movement. Subsequently, I 100% trust him as a source for covert Russian intel.
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Hey, he's only doing it "so that there will be a public record beforehand". Thanks Moby.

Truly baffling times.
 
S

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
I'm fine with leaving Flynn in place it will help tie him to everyone else once more is exposed. And this is the kind of dude that there is definitely more. Plus, if Trump keeps calling on him for dumb shit like currency questions he'll just be Trumps square training wheel in the meantime.

::Reverse edit to add actual content above and place shitposting below::
When they came for Tom Arnold I was silent because honestly who cares about that dude. When they came for Moby I was silent because I haven't really dug anything of his since Play.
 
S

studyguy

Member
Hispanics cast a super wide net fam.
I'm not gonna stress people like Ted Cruz who identifies as Hispanic, there's quite a few of those types out there at this point.
 
S

soul creator

Member
studyguy said:
Hispanics cast a super wide net fam.
I'm not gonna stress people like Ted Cruz who identifies as Hispanic, there's quite a few of those types out there at this point.
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Yeah, I remember jokingly commenting last week that the CNN Town Hall was Bernie Sanders yelling at an immigrant POC for two hours

So needless to say, while it can be certainly be useful shorthand sometimes, there are some uh, limits to sorting political views solely by demographics, heh. (this comes to mind as well)
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
The primary talk in particular about Southern States is so barfing. Whining about the South having too many delegates and not mattering in the Primary since it's red in the General. So minorities in the South whose only real impactful vote to decide an election should be counted for less?


smh
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
soul creator said:
Yeah, I remember jokingly commenting last week that the CNN Town Hall was Bernie Sanders yelling at an immigrant POC for two hours

So needless to say, while it can be certainly be useful shorthand sometimes, there are some uh, limits to sorting political views solely by demographics, heh. (this comes to mind as well)
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One of my formerly close friends from university did a complete 180 and is now a Pakistani Muslim immigrant to America who is a devout Trump supporter.

People are weird.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
The primary talk in particular about Southern States is so barfing. Whining about the South having too many delegates and not mattering in the Primary since it's red in the General. So minorities in the South whose only real impactful vote to decide an election should be counted for less?


smh
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Same people sure loved parading primary victories in whiter red states. Hmmm..

It's almost as if they don't give a fuck about black people
outside of Killer Mike, Cornell West, and Nina of course
 
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