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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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Trump's sprawling agenda faces peril on both sides of the aisle

Suddenly, President Donald Trump's legislative agenda is in deep trouble.

On health care, the budget and tax reform, Trump faces strong resistance barely a month into his presidency. Though Republicans who control Congress have set a streamlined path designed to make Democrats irrelevant, disagreements within the GOP now threaten that plan across the board.

The plan calls for repealing Obamacare and replacing it by mid-April, passing a fiscal 2018 budget and then enacting tax reform by August. That ambitious timetable sounds reasonable in light of recent history; by the end of February 2009, under new President Barack Obama, Democratic congressional majorities had already swept through a massive economic stimulus.

But neither the White House nor congressional Republicans have yet released their long-promised plans to replace Obamacare with better, cheaper alternatives. On Monday, leaders of two different conservative groups within the House Republican caucus declared their opposition to the approach advanced by Speaker Paul Ryan.

Their objection: the plan's tax credits for Americans to buy insurance represent a new federal entitlement too much like Obamacare itself. Yet such tax credits are vital to preventing massive drops in the number of people with health insurance, which Senate Republicans, Republican governors and Trump himself have said they want to avoid.

Ryan aims to overcome intraparty resistance by daring GOP dissenters to vote no when a repeal-and-replacement plan reaches the House floor. That's a risky approach to take with firebrands so willing to defy their leaders that they forced the resignation of the speaker's predecessor, John Boehner.

The White House on Monday outlined its broad approach for the budget. Budget Director Mick Mulvaney said the administration aimed to boost defense spending by $54 billion, financed through offsetting cuts in domestic spending.

His objective faces huge obstacles. Such a budget shift would require legislation to alter statutory spending caps that, unlike the Obamacare repeal Trump hopes to pass, would not be shielded from Senate filibuster.

Chances the White House could attract the eight Democrats needed to back such a shift are remote. So are chances of holding all 52 Senate Republicans behind it.

As the third-ranking Senate Republican, John Thune, told CNBC in November, "We've done all we can" to cut domestic spending through the Obama-era budget sequester limits. Like Ryan, Thune identified the large entitlement programs of Medicare and Social Security as the place to find additional budget savings. But the president himself has loudly opposed touching them.

That leaves tax reform. The Trump White House and congressional Republicans alike have hoped to, at a minimum, overhaul corporate taxation with the goal of reducing the current top rate of 35 percent and inducing U.S. multinational companies to bring back tax-deferred profits sitting overseas to boost domestic investment. Their larger aim is a comprehensive overhaul of individual taxation, too.

Their legislative strategy calls for acting first on Obamacare; any delay on that issue slows the pace of tax reform. But even on corporate tax reform, Republicans remain far from consensus.

The linchpin of the House GOP approach is the so-called border adjustment tax hitting imports and exempting exports. Leaders cite two principal merits: it would encourage more investment in the U.S., and it would generate more than $1 trillion, offsetting the cost of reducing the corporate rate to an internationally competitive 20 percent.

The problem is, a growing number of Republican senators oppose border adjustment because they believe it would harm businesses in their states. Senate Republicans have not yet offered an alternative corporate tax plan.

Bigly gridlock.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Listening to Trump and his flunkies talk makes you think the entire nation is on fire, killing each other, addicted to drugs, and has a crumbling military.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Trump shirking responsibility for the Yemen raid and saying it was all on the military is really something else. If his supporters weren't shameless hypocrites they'd be utterly livid.
 
Listening to Trump and his flunkies talk makes you think the entire nation is on fire, killing each other, addicted to drugs, and has a crumbling military.

A lot of people believe this. They live in a much, much scarier world than reality, which is why they lash out in desperation, because to them, it is desperate. We're the crazy people because we can't see the chaos around us as society falls apart.
 

Holmes

Member
I can't believe Trump can't get his legislative goals passed with a Republican Congress. Good for us, but damn what an idiot.
 

Wilsongt

Member
A lot of people believe this. They live in a much, much scarier world than reality, which is why they lash out in desperation, because to them, it is desperate. We're the crazy people because we can't see the chaos around us as society falls apart.

I just cannot logically see that fear. Maybe my concerns are different. The US in and of itself is fine, while you have pockets of issues that need addressing...

I just can't process the doom and gloom idea, and I suffer from clinic depression and my default state is doom and gloom.
 
I just cannot logically see that fear. Maybe my concerns are different. The US in and of itself is fine, while you have pockets of issues that need addressing...

I just can't process the doom and gloom idea, and I suffer from clinic depression and my default state is doom and gloom.

Fear is not logical, completely different circuit than our logic ones. Some theories of some forms of depression is that it is an adaption to chronic anxiety/stress in order to numb you to constant overstimulation.

We should just dump beta blockers in the water supply already. On a more serious note, a politician needs to really address fear and anxiety because that seems to be what drives most voters.

Depression by itself I think is already the #1 cause of disability or is 2nd behind heart disease. Lump in the whole constellation of neuropsychiatric concerns and its a huge elephant in the room in terms of disability, economic loss, and what drives people to do stupid things like vote for Trump.
 
I just cannot logically see that fear. Maybe my concerns are different. The US in and of itself is fine, while you have pockets of issues that need addressing...

I just can't process the doom and gloom idea, and I suffer from clinic depression and my default state is doom and gloom.

I can't rationalize it either, but watching any amount of time of Fox News will show you what this made up fantasy America looks like. Take everything they say as completely literal, actually happening right now, facts and America is on the brink of a total societal collapse.
 
I can't rationalize it either, but watching any amount of time of Fox News will show you what this made up fantasy America looks like. Take everything they say as completely literal, actually happening right now, facts and America is on the brink of a total societal collapse.

Yeah, negative news stories are very very prevalent (even local news). So a lot of people see that and think "America is in trouble" because that's literally all they see

It's why I appreciate feel-good news stories
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
I just cannot logically see that fear. Maybe my concerns are different. The US in and of itself is fine, while you have pockets of issues that need addressing...

I just can't process the doom and gloom idea, and I suffer from clinic depression and my default state is doom and gloom.
Reality versus Unreality

This mindset is most common in rural America where their perception of the country and world is painted by their choice of media rather than real-world experience. If they ever left their county of 5,000 people and went to an actual city full of industry, great jobs and cultural diversity, maybe they would open their eyes a bit.
 
Reality versus Unreality

This mindset is most common in rural America where their perception of the country and world is painted by their choice of media rather than real-world experience. If they ever left their county of 5,000 people and went to an actual city full of industry, great jobs and cultural diversity, maybe they would open their eyes a bit.

But they can't do that because those cities are on fire and everyone in them is constantly being shot and there's drugs everywhere and prostitutes on the streets. And those savages sleep around with anything and everything and get abortions and rape each other and don't seem to care that they're causing society to collapse from a lack of morals and Jesus.
 

Zukkoyaki

Member
But they can't do that because those cities are on fire and everyone in them is constantly being shot and there's drugs everywhere and prostitutes on the streets. And those savages sleep around with anything and everything and get abortions and rape each other and don't seem to care that they're causing society to collapse from a lack of morals and Jesus.
It's depressing how accurate this is -_-
 
It's depressing how accurate this is -_-

I know from experience lol

I live in a city that is considered "high crime." Except that high crime is isolated to like 5 streets that everyone around here knows are not a place to ever go. But the burbites don't know that, so they lock their doors on my street and get all concerned if I'm safe when I mention where I live.

I've walked around my neighborhood at all hours of the night (my parents live on the street as well so I visit them and sometimes I stay late or it's a weird time) and not a peep was heard and never had I ever felt unsafe, nor has anyone ever been shot or raped or anything on my street. But it's in the city, so of course it's super high crime. Walking around at 2am in my neighborhood would probably make a burbite faint from fear.

Jokes on them. My living expenses are a third of theirs and I don't need to spend 4 hours mowing my acre of a lawn every Sunday.

Guys I don't even like rural life and I've wanted to move to a city since I was like ten but you're being super patronizing right now.

This is coming 100% from experience. There is a legitimate fear of entering the city.
 
But they can't do that because those cities are on fire and everyone in them is constantly being shot and there's drugs everywhere and prostitutes on the streets. And those savages sleep around with anything and everything and get abortions and rape each other and don't seem to care that they're causing society to collapse from a lack of morals and Jesus.

My whole hometown thinks this.
 
I also think it's interesting how the urban-suburban dynamic is essentially reversed in Europe, at least from what I understand

Also makes me wonder if gentrification will eventually push us towards that
 

Sibylus

Banned
What would be the tactical advantage of having something that imitates the impact of a nuclear arsenal by at 10 billion times the cost for maintenance.

I mean, MAD would still apply and now you just have more basically nukes and you are throwing away billions and billions of dollars more than you have to.

And it would take a lot longer for your nukes to hit America then it would be for our nukes to hit you.

Since every country is a lot closer to America than America is to the moon.

Missed replying last night, so my twopence:

The only advantage I can posit off the top of my head is that it would be extraordinarily difficult to intercept after launch, before it made planetfall. No guidance, no active thrust.

On the other hand, the launch event would be extraordinarily "noisy". Launching moon rocks would require a lot of fuel and a dedicated launch site to do it, which I think would necessitate basing on the far side and a world with no satellite coverage of the moon (unrealistic, once the first someone bases there, everyone will want to have eyes on it). Quarrying moon rock and maintaining staff there would be quite expensive, and that's before you get into the logistics and costs of launching moon rocks large enough to survive reentry with enough mass to do the desired damage. It's absolutely WMD-class weaponry, and for my money, inferior to buying dozens/hundreds/thousands (?) of nuclear warheads in its place. It's not a game changer.
 
Trump shirking responsibility for the Yemen raid and saying it was all on the military is really something else. If his supporters weren't shameless hypocrites they'd be utterly livid.

Not to mention the fact that he authorized the mission during dinner and was not in the situation room as it played out in real time. It's outrageous behavior from a president. I have no problem with the authorization of the mission (in theory), and it going bad is not Trump's fault - shit happens. But it's clear he made the decision flippantly and was not properly engaged like a commander in chief should be.

Imagine if you were in special forces. I'd bet some are pretty excited about rules of engagement changes and not having to worry about legal consequences.....but you'd think even more would be wondering whether they're being sent into a trap/half thought out mission.
 

kirblar

Member
Wow those 2 Dems should be ashamed of themselves
One of the Dems explicitly voted No because he both didn't like the implementation AND because to resurrect the bill, you need to be one of the people that voted it down. (apparently their rules are wonky)
 
I gasped when I read this. This man will believe any conspiracy theory that absolves him from guilt or failure.
@anna_orso
PA Attorney General Josh Shapiro among state attorneys general who met with President Trump this morning in Washington, his office says

@anna_orso
Shapiro says he brought up bomb threats, Jewish cemetery desecration over last few days with Trump. Trump said he'll address tonight

@anna_orso
Shapiro then said Trump indicated that the threats at JCCs may have come from "the reverse" or "to make others look bad"

@anna_orso
Shapiro stopped short of saying Trump thinks his supporters are being framed for bomb threats. But he seems to think that's what he meant.
 

Joeytj

Banned
I gasped when I read this. This man will believe any conspiracy theory that absolves him from guilt or failure.

And why isn't the PA AG calling Trump out on this? He should've flat out told him that no, these aren't Jews or liberals desecrating tombstones just to make Trump look bad.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Not to mention the fact that he authorized the mission during dinner and was not in the situation room as it played out in real time. It's outrageous behavior from a president. I have no problem with the authorization of the mission (in theory), and it going bad is not Trump's fault - shit happens. But it's clear he made the decision flippantly and was not properly engaged like a commander in chief should be.

Imagine if you were in special forces. I'd bet some are pretty excited about rules of engagement changes and not having to worry about legal consequences.....but you'd think even more would be wondering whether they're being sent into a trap/half thought out mission.
Yeah, it's enraging on a number of levels. It's certainly a far cry from the basic duties of the office.
 

Sibylus

Banned
C5xjRcQWQAQibD2.jpg

This bit is correct, but not for the direct-action military reasons she cites. The moon has priceless resource reserves.

http://www.space.com/28189-moon-mining-economic-feasibility.html

2018 will be interesting for moon news.
 

TylerD

Member
Reality versus Unreality

This mindset is most common in rural America where their perception of the country and world is painted by their choice of media rather than real-world experience. If they ever left their county of 5,000 people and went to an actual city full of industry, great jobs and cultural diversity, maybe they would open their eyes a bit.

Everyone should spend a little more time in a major diverse metro area and I'm 100% confident we would have a lot more acceptance and empathy. You could go the same way with people that live in urban environments to rural as well.

A lack of understanding and relying on what the media (liberal or conservative) feed us is a major problem.
 
If you wanted to use kinetic interceptors, there's way way way easier ways than mining moon rock. Just lasso an asteroid.

As for "why," a) rule of cool, b) no nuclear fallout.
 
I gasped when I read this. This man will believe any conspiracy theory that absolves him from guilt or failure.

What's so strange about this is how easy is it to say, "Hey, I despise these attacks on the Jewish community and will do whatever I can to put an end to it." Like, say the right things. It's really, really fucking easy to have a response that allows everyone to just nod their head.
 

Wilsongt

Member
What's so strange about this is how easy is it to say, "Hey, I despise these attacks on the Jewish community and will do whatever I can to put an end to it." Like, say the right things. It's really, really fucking easy to have a response that allows everyone to just nod their head.

That requires some people to be smart and have good judgement, which he has none of either.
 

Dan

No longer boycotting the Wolfenstein franchise
Donald Trump sure does like to invoke Ivanka and Jared when it comes to Jewish issues, but they've certainly been very, very quiet recently.

I'm not sure how their synagogue puts up with being associated with them.
 

Allard

Member
What's so strange about this is how easy is it to say, "Hey, I despise these attacks on the Jewish community and will do whatever I can to put an end to it." Like, say the right things. It's really, really fucking easy to have a response that allows everyone to just nod their head.

This is why the response is so telling of who Trump is, he has said in the past something is bad when put in the corner or prompted if he knows it can't be directly related to him, but rather then taking that route he goes out of his way to try demonize intent as if its some kind of personal front against his way of thinking, that to me says WAYYY more about him then anything else, the media and the populace need to wreck him over it.
 

Paches

Member
I can't believe Trump can't get his legislative goals passed with a Republican Congress. Good for us, but damn what an idiot.

This is the crux of the dilemma for me. Ousting Trump without also ousting Pence with him could (would?) be actually worse for domestic policy, in terms of getting Paul Ryan's agenda passed through congress. Trump and co. could be so ineffectual at governance that he could pass nothing through congress before the midterms and we might make it through 2 years relatively OK (optimistic, but hey), but if Pence was in charge it would all be over.

This is completely discounting foreign policy, because we have already tanked in that regard and I pray that we can make it through his presidency without some kind of world crisis that requires his decision making.
 
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