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PoliGAF 2017 |OT1| From Russia with Love

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K

kess

Member
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I mean, there are bubbles of hate within cities. Plenty of them. Let's not act like the Southside of Chicago became the way it is through happenstance, or like there aren't poor hispanic people selling knock-off DVDs on the sidewalk in Macarthur Park just a few miles away from white people eating at Michelin rated restaurants in Beverly Hills. Or New York's flirting with "poor doors" for a while very recently. There are examples of pretty overt racism in every city. The true pockets of tolerance and exchanges of culture are rare.
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Of course -- but it's just as likely to find a place five miles outside a city that is more racist than one a hundred miles out because one was explicitly formed as a result of white flight.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
It might help if we didn't act like that they were dirty and gross and "have no place in the future of America" while chasing suburban Republicans but idk
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Who's saying they're dirty and gross? We're saying they hate people who aren't like them and who aren't salvageable as a voting bloc.

Suburban GOPers are much, much more flippable.
 
H

Holmes

Member
Um, Dems shouldn't give up on rural areas, even if they are unlikely to win them. As NeoXChaos said, it's all about margins. And rural areas don't have much of a future because they aren't being invested in. Many people living in rural areas sometimes need to travel hours away to get treatment or medication or good education. Those are common sense ideas for investment that some governments just aren't taking but would help revitalize communities, if even a little.
 
I

ImpracticalPassword

Member
mo60 said:
And the huffington post in Canada posted an article where Robert Shiller a prominent Nobel winning economist warns that Trump is setting up of a repeat of 1929 market crash.

He also said that trump's election is also creating an economic “narrative” that is pushing markets to be unreasonably optimistic about future prospects and that the economy will eventually crash which will result in the American people rejecting trump.
Link

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/0...nald-trump-stock-market-crash_n_14268676.html

There's a video in the huffington post article where robert shiller explains why he thinks a 1929 style crash may happen under trump's presidency.
Click to expand...

Robert Shiller also sounded the alarm about the housing bubble a couple of years ahead of 2007/8 crash. (https://mobile.nytimes.com/2005/08/21/business/yourmoney/be-warned-mr-bubbles-worried-again.html <-- article from 2005, which starts out with an anecdote about his prediction about markets showing "irrational exuberance" in the late 1990s.)
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
Bonen no Max'd said:
It might help if we didn't act like that they were dirty and gross and "have no place in the future of America" while chasing suburban Republicans but idk
Click to expand...

emmett-till-marker-bullet-holes-2016-10-22.png
Click to expand...

Feel free to come on down! It's not backwards and racist here, no sir! We're just feeling the economic anxiety. After all, it is the Hospitality State!

I usually get a good chuckle out of that when I see it on our stuff.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Holmes said:
Um, Dems shouldn't give up on rural areas, even if they are unlikely to win them. As NeoXChaos said, it's all about margins. And rural areas don't have much of a future because they aren't being invested in. Many people living in rural areas sometimes need to travel hours away to get treatment or medication or good education. Those are common sense ideas for investment that some governments just aren't taking but would help revitalize communities, if even a little.
Click to expand...
At a presidential level? They absolutely should.

At the DNC? (AKA state/local) Not at all.
 
T

Toxi

Banned
kirblar said:
Who's saying they're dirty and gross? We're saying they hate people who aren't like them and who aren't salvageable as a voting bloc.

Suburban GOPers are much, much more flippable.
Click to expand...
Suburban GOPers also hate people who aren't like them, they're just more subtle about it.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Toxi said:
Suburban GOPers also hate people who aren't like them, they're just more subtle about it.
Click to expand...
Correct, but they also get to interact with them and take the edge off of some of them, which doesn't happen to the rural ones. (There's your margins)
 
K

kess

Member
AntraxSuicide said:
Feel free to come on down! It's not backwards and racist here, no sir! We're just feeling the economic anxiety. After all, it is the Hospitality State!

I usually get a good chuckle out of that when I see it on our stuff.
Click to expand...

I hope the irony of using Mississippi as a example of obsolete communities isn't lost on you because automation is the hammer that is going to kill rural minority communities the most.
 
C

Crocodile

Member
jack_package_200 said:
Bernie no
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I'm not a fan of this line because I feel it acquiesces the sense of patriotism the Democratic Party was able to pry away from Republicans. Rather than say "America is the worst!" (which isn't true because he doesn't use any qualifiers - I'm pretty sure at its worst America is still better than North Korea or many "3rd World" countries) he should say "if America wants to be the best is must improve its relationship with the poor & working class" or "I'm embarrassed a nation as great as ours has such is so shitty in this particular regard!".
 
I

ImpracticalPassword

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Most of America's problems would be solved if 60k voters moved from LA to Arizona and another 60k voters from San Fran moved to Alaska.
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If we're talking presidential elections only, it probably wouldn't be *too* tough to convince a good number of coastal Dems to move to Philly. Heck, encourage migration to Atlanta or Austin while we're at it. Miami, even. (Detroit might be a tougher sell but I hear it's got a hipster foodie subculture, which may be enough...)

If we're talking all other elections, uh... Depending on margins, could help somewhat in Senate races?

/daydreaming
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
kess said:
I hope the irony of using Mississippi as a example of obsolete communities isn't lost on you because automation is the hammer that is going to kill rural minority communities the most.
Click to expand...

I hope you're aware of how the state government (overwhelmingly liked by white rural Mississippians) takes every ounce of economic prosperity from places like the Delta and sends it to the white parts of the state already.

It literally doesn't matter if you could send 10 thousand jobs to Mississippi. Under no circumstances would white Mississippians ever let those jobs go to black parts of the state.

edit:
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Pretty sure that we should wait to see any automation take place outside of manufacturing before saying it will devastate all communities.
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I would argue this is like saying we should wait for Florida to sink before acting on climate change.

And if self-driving cars actually do get to where people like Musk want them to go in like ten years, we're talking about some of the most held careers in like 29 states getting automated. Sure, we could wait to install some programs to keep those millions of people from starving to death, but since you need food several times a day, I'd give us like a week tops to get these programs into action once these things take off.
 
A

AntraxSuicide

Banned
shinra-bansho said:
Mnuchin failed to disclose $100 million in assets?

:/

Swamp drained right into Cabinet.
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One of the more interesting things to discover in 20 years is going to be the (hopeful) untangling of exactly how corrupt this administration is going to be. I mean, Trump alone could fill classes, but with his Cabinet, the guy's going to replace Nixon as the president synonymous with corruption (yes there were more corrupt ones, but publicly, most people would pick Nixon).
 
J

jtb

Banned
Aren't suburban voters the "real" future of the Democratic party? Obviously winning back those margins on rural voters is a must (particularly with the brutal 2018 Senate map) but the college educated white vote has been trending bluer for a while now. Maybe that's optimistic, but it seems like the path to a majority in the house runs will be very reliant on flipping suburban districts... GA 6 being a perfect example.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
kirblar said:
Correct, but they also get to interact with them and take the edge off of some of them, which doesn't happen to the rural ones. (There's your margins)
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Do they? Suburbs exist because of white flight, what makes their interactions with nonwhite people different from "the good ones".

I mean I had a black kid in my high school class, my state is pretty white but it's not like we don't have any PoC.
 
M

mo60

Member
jtb said:
Aren't suburban voters the "real" future of the Democratic party? Obviously winning back those margins on rural voters is a must (particularly with the brutal 2018 Senate map) but the college educated white vote has been trending bluer for a while now. Maybe that's optimistic, but it seems like the path to a majority in the house runs will be very reliant on flipping suburban districts... GA 6 being a perfect example.
Click to expand...

Yes they are, but the dems need to start winning white college educated voters by more than a point or two nationally to hurt the GOP. Statewide and local I'm not sure yet, but winning suburban voters in the south and west by bigger margins or lowering the margins they lose these voters by should help them win congressional and senate seats
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I don't think patriotism is a thing that anyone cares about (almost all people who self-identify as "patriot" voted for the candidate that said America sucked and needed to be more like Russia) so it's pointless to try to use patriotism moving forward, but Bernie is obviously and ridiculously incorrect in that tweet. Could lay off the hyperbole.

But then again, hyperbole is fun so I understand.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
jtb said:
Aren't suburban voters the "real" future of the Democratic party? Obviously winning back those margins on rural voters is a must (particularly with the brutal 2018 Senate map) but the college educated white vote has been trending bluer for a while now. Maybe that's optimistic, but it seems like the path to a majority in the house runs will be very reliant on flipping suburban districts... GA 6 being a perfect example.
Click to expand...

Not until 2024 at the earliest, with a good candidate, and probably not until later. If you average demographic voting trends since 1980 and project forwards (rough as fuck, I know, but you get the gist), the key swing states will be the Rust Belt for a while yet.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
How is the stock market so confident right now when policy uncertainty is at its highest point maybe ever?

Like, let's look at the strength of the dollar. This is an important thing to the American economy and can affect a lot of things.

Trump: We need to make the dollar weaker.
Mnuchin: We need to make the dollar stronger.

What investor has any idea of what is about to happen economically? How can you decide that now is a good time to invest with so much uncertainty? How can you invest in a random company when that random company might make Trump mad and Trump might respond by attacking that company and using the regulatory state against it? The amount of delusional confidence from investors right now is pitiful.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Do they? Suburbs exist because of white flight, what makes their interactions with nonwhite people different from "the good ones".

I mean I had a black kid in my high school class, my state is pretty white but it's not like we don't have any PoC.
Click to expand...
I grew up in the suburbs. My school was plurality white.

What makes it different is the breadth of people you interact with.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
How is the stock market so confident right now when policy uncertainty is at its highest point maybe ever?

Like, let's look at the strength of the dollar. This is an important thing to the American economy and can affect a lot of things.

Trump: We need to make the dollar weaker.
Mnuchin: We need to make the dollar stronger.

What investor has any idea of what is about to happen economically? How can you decide that now is a good time to invest with so much uncertainty? How can you invest in a random company when that random company might make Trump mad and Trump might respond by attacking that company and using the regulatory state against it? The amount of delusional confidence from investors right now is pitiful.
Click to expand...

They expect a bonfire of the regulations, methinks. It's the same in the UK - we have no idea how Brexit will play out, but investing is holding steady because Theresa May has been dropping hints she intends to just tear up the rulebook.
 
M

mo60

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
How is the stock market so confident right now when policy uncertainty is at its highest point maybe ever?

Like, let's look at the strength of the dollar. This is an important thing to the American economy and can affect a lot of things.

Trump: We need to make the dollar weaker.
Mnuchin: We need to make the dollar stronger.

What investor has any idea of what is about to happen economically? How can you decide that now is a good time to invest with so much uncertainty? How can you invest in a random company when that random company might make Trump mad and Trump might respond by attacking that company and using the regulatory state against it? The amount of delusional confidence from investors right now is pitiful.
Click to expand...

The stock market is going to stay high for awhile and it may eventually crash.The stock market is obviously high now because investors are more encouraged to invest in businesses in a trump presidency since trump is a more business friendly president compared to Obama. Once the effects of trump's presidency on the economy are known investors may back off from investing in business especially if the economy crashes eventually. You should read the article I posted earlier today in this thread.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Crab said:
They expect a bonfire of the regulations, methinks. It's the same in the UK - we have no idea how Brexit will play out, but investing is holding steady because Theresa May has been dropping hints she intends to just tear up the rulebook.
Click to expand...

I mean sure, but there's more to investing than taxes and regulations and outside of those two things, Trump and his team are completely incoherent on the economy.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean sure, but there's more to investing than taxes and regulations and outside of those two things, Trump and his team are completely incoherent on the economy.
Click to expand...

I mean, not as far as, say, the S&P 100 index is concerned. Large amounts of their revenue are generated abroad, the US domestic economy doing well is a nice bonus but not essential. Their primary concern with US domestic politics is making sure that they don't get taxed much and that they're not limited in other markets by wide-reaching regulatory powers. If you were to look at investment in SMBs, you might see a different story.
 
C

Carpe Libertatem

Member
Bonen no Max'd said:
Do they? Suburbs exist because of white flight, what makes their interactions with nonwhite people different from "the good ones".

I mean I had a black kid in my high school class, my state is pretty white but it's not like we don't have any PoC.
Click to expand...

I'd bet gentrification is changing this. Suburbs will still be plurality white - maybe even majority - but many of them won't be as dominating as before.

then they'll flee to exurbs
 
H

hydragonwarrior

Member
So the whole Russian/Trump scandal - is it safe to say that even if it were true, nothing is going to happen out of it other than the Senate investigation?
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Wait, I just found out that the vote on drug pricing that was taken the other day had the support of a dozen Republicans (and was opposed by a dozen Dems)??

What the hell happened here?
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
I mean, there are bubbles of hate within cities. Plenty of them. Let's not act like the Southside of Chicago became the way it is through happenstance, or like there aren't poor hispanic people selling knock-off DVDs on the sidewalk in Macarthur Park just a few miles away from white people eating at Michelin rated restaurants in Beverly Hills. Or New York's flirting with "poor doors" for a while very recently. There are examples of pretty overt racism in every city. The true pockets of tolerance and exchanges of culture are rare.
Click to expand...

Chicago went 90% for Clinton.

Segregation doesn't go away for decades. Just because the north side if the city is white doesn't mean they are willing to vote for a racist.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
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