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[The Lamonster]

Hotline/Diageo is once again 47-41, wow their analysis is almost as bad as the tracking poll analysis done on GAF

That's not what I see...

 

[syllogism]

That's not what I see...

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/charts/20081008-1a.gif

Looking at today's chart might help

 

[adamsappel]

It's not like I needed any more support to call Obama a socialist. His speeches and issue stances were ample. Ties to yet another fringe left individual or group are hardly unexpected.

It's also not like most of you folks on here would view that as a bad thing.

So, your main man has a newsletter, an actual printed and distributed publication, with his very name on the masthead, containing vile and pernicious racism, and you completely disavow his involvement in any way, yet some random blog has four words tying a political enemy to something and you accept it as gospel. Where's Gaborn? I know he won't let this rash judgment stand unchallenged.

 

[The Lamonster]

How much did the Fed cut the interest rate yesterday?

Why is this so hard to find on cnn.com and other places? It was huge news yesterday!

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

How much did the Fed cut the interest rate yesterday?

Half a percent.

I'm a first time registered voter here in Florida. What will I need to bring with me on election day besides my voter's registration card?

 

[GhaleonEB]

DAILYKOS/R2K

Obama 51% (EVEN)
McCain 41% (EVEN)

Note the internals. Obama +12. It was +8 yesterday.

And both Palin and McCain's favorablity are doing dooooowwn.

http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines

Edit: Obama's new ad attacking McCain's mortgage plan: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_Tested.html?showall

 

[3rdman]

We still have Air America don't we? I haven't listened to talk radio in years. I used to like Phil Hendrie and the old gay guy who I forget. Edit: Neil Rogers.

Yes, I love Neil...But he's only on between 10AM and 2PM. Air America (or whats left of it) is still there on 940 but in the morning when me and many others are catching up on the days news there are NO liberal voices at all in the entire South Florida area...its kinda nuts.

 

[gkryhewy]

Half a percent.

I'm a first time registered voter here in Florida. What will I need to bring with me on election day besides my voter's registration card?

Photo ID just in case? Especially if you are black or hispanic.

 

[saelz8]

That's not what I see...

Ah ok, was about to say!

47-41 was from just 2 days ago, they have some funky numbers.

 

[syllogism]

Ah ok, was about to say!

47-41 was from just 2 days ago, they have some funky numbers.

Sheesh gaf, today is Thursday 10/09/2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100908.htm

 

[scorcho]

I'm eagerly awaiting InBev or Coors to come out with their own presidential tracking poll.

MOE folks, MOE! There's no sense parsing what is essentially static.

 

[mckmas8808]

Barack Obama

Dayton, Ohio
Fifth Third Field
Home of the Dayton Dragons
11:20 am (EDT)

Cincinnati, Ohio
Ault Park Pavilion‎
3:00 pm (EDT)

Portsmouth, Ohio
Alumni Green
Shawnee State University
7:30 pm (EDT)

Joe Biden

St. Joseph, Missouri
Missouri Western State University
Looney Complex
Doors open: 8:00 am (CDT)

Liberty, Missouri
William Jewell College
Mabee Athletic Center
Doors open at 12:30 pm (CDT)

Jefferson City, Missouri
Memorial Park
7:00 pm (CDT)

[Michelle Obama and Jill Biden have no public events scheduled]

Johnah McPalin <----- Who the fuck is this?

Waukesha, Wisconsin
Center Court Sports Complex
Doors open: 10:30 am (CDT)

John McCain

Wausau, Wisconsin
Wausau Paper Company Hangar
4:30 pm (CDT)

Sarah Palin

Wilmington, Ohio
The Roberts Centre
7:00 pm (EDT)

WHY IS JOHN MCCAIN GOING TO WISCONSIN?!

He should be going to North Carolina.

 

[The Lamonster]

Sheesh gaf, today is Friday 10/09/2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100908.htm

Constructive criticism: next time you tease a write-up, provide a link.

 

[iapetus]

You know, normally I'd invoke Godwin's Law, but the Hitler comparison is actually pretty apt.

And you know who else shot moose? Yeah, Hitler.

 

[Barrett2]

WHY IS JOHN MCCAIN GOING TO WISCONSIN?!

He should be going to North Carolina.

He has some valuable friends in Wisconsin who need to hear his heartwarming warnings about domestic terrists.

 

[saelz8]

Sheesh gaf, today is Friday 10/09/2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100908.htm

Doh!

Ok, their numbers are really all over the place.

They need to update their site, main cause of my confusion. (It's old)

 

[Son of Godzilla]

That's with a measly +3 gain in ID differential too and still an exaggerated Repub number. Fuck, Obama's probably close to double if they did a legit poll.

 

[kkaabboomm]

Sheesh gaf, today is Friday 10/09/2008

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/docs/Hotline_100908.htm

it's thursday.

and if you check ambinders site it has the daily chart too...
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/

 

[mckmas8808]

How much did the Fed cut the interest rate yesterday?

.5 points.

 

[syllogism]

I'm eagerly awaiting InBev or Coors to come out with their own presidential tracking poll.

MOE folks, MOE! There's no sense parsing what is essentially static.

But their own analysis attempts to parse it. Obama has gained among women!

 

[Zeliard]

While what McCain and Palin are doing is terrible, what I want to know is where the hell is Ayers? He's alive and living, and seems respected in the community now. Why is he not talking to the media to diffuse some of this stuff?

Ayers is doing exactly what he needs to be doing in staying out of it and refusing all interviews.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

I'm eagerly awaiting InBev or Coors to come out with their own presidential tracking poll.

MOE folks, MOE! There's no sense parsing what is essentially static.

If you say MOE one more time, I'm gonna bite you on the nose. Why won't you let us have nice things

 

[Cheebs]

WHY IS JOHN MCCAIN GOING TO WISCONSIN?!

He should be going to North Carolina.

Palin was in NC for 2 days straight this week.

 

[CharlieDigital]

That looks like a very blue collection of states, even to my untrained eyes. I wonder how much money the red states would lose with no redistribution at all, if all states were at $1.0 received for every dollar taxed.

http://www.fuckthesouth.com

 

[mckmas8808]

Note the internals. Obama +12. It was +8 yesterday.

And both Palin and McCain's favorablity are doing dooooowwn.

http://www.dailykos.com/trendlines

Edit: Obama's new ad attacking McCain's mortgage plan: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_Tested.html?showall

Favorable/Unfavorable
CANDIDATE FAV UNFAV NO OPINION 
[B]MCCAIN  42   50   [/B]8 
OBAMA   59   32   9 
BIDEN   58   30   12 
[B]PALIN   37   54   [/B]9

WHY is no one in the media talking about their unfavorables going up? McCain and Palin are driving themselves into a ditch with this Ayers talk.

 

[pxleyes]

Palin was in NC for 2 days straight this week.

EXACTLY. John McCain needs to get to NC.

 

[syllogism]

Back to polls that actually matter

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf

PPP Virginia: 51o-43m

 

[Cheebs]

EXACTLY. John McCain needs to get to NC.

McCain isnt the person who is wooing voters. He is beside the point, he can't get crowds. Palin is the person who can do rallies. Not him.

 

[Son of Godzilla]

Edit: Obama's new ad attacking McCain's mortgage plan: http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/1008/Obama_Tested.html?showall

That's nice, but they would have been better off underlining how it's fucking insane.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

Palin was in NC for 2 days straight this week.

McCain hasn't been in NC in 6 months.

 

[The Lamonster]

McCain hasn't been in NC in 6 months.

:lol

aaaaaand he's spending LOTS of time in Iowa! god damn

 

[Tobor]

Back to polls that actually matter

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf

PPP Virginia: 51o-43m

Between this and Mark Warner sailing to an easy blowout, I'm so happy with my state.

 

[Freedom = $1.05]

Yes, I love Neil...But he's only on between 10AM and 2PM. Air America (or whats left of it) is still there on 940 but in the morning when me and many others are catching up on the days news there are NO liberal voices at all in the entire South Florida area...its kinda nuts.

We always have NPR.

 

[pxleyes]

McCain isnt the person who is wooing voters. He is beside the point, he can't get crowds. Palin is the person who can do rallies. Not him.

It was a joke about how Palin is tanking McCain's numbers.

 

[Cloudy]

:lol

aaaaaand he's spending LOTS of time in Iowa! god damn

They know their only way to win is by Obama losing votes so they are running their fear and smear tactics in blue states..

 

[kkaabboomm]

Back to polls that actually matter

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf

PPP Virginia: 51o-43m

interesting...

 

[scorcho]

If you say MOE one more time, I'm gonna bite you on the nose. Why won't you let us have nice things

Can I post charts instead?

It's a simulation of what statistical sampling error alone would do to the percentage margin between Obama and McCain in the Diageo/Hotline/National Journal/Atlantic Monthly daily tracking poll if the race were tied and if there was no motion at all in underlying voter preferences.

 

[XxenobladerxX]

>=(

 

[mckmas8808]

That's with a measly +3 gain in ID differential too and still an exaggerated Repub number. Fuck, Obama's probably close to double if they did a legit poll.

So do they now have a DEM +5 party ID differential compared to REPs? If so that means that the poll is about correct. I read that the party ID should be a DEM +6 to a DEM +8.

So yeah it's closer to the truth but probably still unfair to Obama by a hair.

 

[kkaabboomm]

Can I post charts instead?

(chart)

you and your charts, numbers, ideas about how statistics work in polling, could you be more debbie downer?

 

[harSon]

ZOGBY:

Obama 48% (+1)
McCain 44% (-1)

:lol

What poll is Fox News going to use now?

 

[mckmas8808]

Back to polls that actually matter

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_VA_1009535.pdf

PPP Virginia: 51o-43m

What's keeping the Cable news stations from making VA blue? MSNBC and Chuck Todd just aren't budging on VA being a toss up and CNN with John King say fuck it VA is totally in the margin of error.

That's 3 polls that on average have Obama up +10 in VA. WTF are they waiting for?

 

[scorcho]

What's keeping the Cable news stations from making VA blue? MSNBC and Chuck Todd just aren't budging on VA being a toss up and CNN with John King say fuck it VA is totally in the margin of error.

That's 3 polls that on average have Obama up +10 in VA. WTF are they waiting for?

History. I'm optimistic but it's still a tossup right now since a lot of Obama's gains are predicated on increased turnout in demographics that haven't turned out in the past.

 

[MrHicks]

:lol

What poll is Fox News going to use now?

i reject your reality and substitute my own

 

[The Lamonster]

What's keeping the Cable news stations from making VA blue? MSNBC and Chuck Todd just aren't budging on VA being a toss up and CNN with John King say fuck it VA is totally in the margin of error.

That's 3 polls that on average have Obama up +10 in VA. WTF are they waiting for?

Dude. Don't worry about what the cable news stations say. They want this thing to be close.

 

[syllogism]

Can I post charts instead?

http://img.skitch.com/20080919-rekpwdjtcbsrppc4yn8xjjpyty.jpg

While I agree with you on MoE, that chart appears inaccurate and in practice hotline hasn't fluctuated nearly as much

 

[mj1108]

:lol

What poll is Fox News going to use now?

Probably their own "Fox News Poll". The same kind of poll that said 86% of people thought McCain won the last debate.

 

[NewLib]

What's keeping the Cable news stations from making VA blue? MSNBC and Chuck Todd just aren't budging on VA being a toss up and CNN with John King say fuck it VA is totally in the margin of error.

That's 3 polls that on average have Obama up +10 in VA. WTF are they waiting for?

Because if VA is acknowledged as Blue the race is OVAH. People tune in less because why concern yourself with a race which is no longer competitive. Cable news stations lose ratings.

Come on people. The Mainstream Media will do anything to make it seem like the race is still close. Not because of bias (well not counting Fox News), but because that gets ratings.

 

[Cheebs]

McCain hasn't been in NC in 6 months.

There is a very clear strategy. McCain focuses on the "Obama states" and Palin focuses on the Bush states.

It's why McCain is always in the midwest and PA and Palin is running around NC, Virginia, and Florida all the time.

 

[StopMakingSense]

There is a very clear strategy. McCain focuses on the "Obama states" and Palin focuses on the Bush states.

It's why McCain is always in the midwest and PA and Palin is running around NC, Virginia, and Florida all the time.

Thats a horrifically bad strategy.