StoOgE said:
HOLY SHIT.
They really dont have a Kerry state even close to in play. :lol
And yes, remember guys, no matter what happens in the other "swing states" that lean Obama... New Mexico + Colorado + IA + Kerry = win. Obama is up 8+ points in all of these states.. meaning, these states are ahead of the national polling for Obama.
Guys, we are 3 weeks out from the election, this thing gets less and less fluid every day.
Another thing to keep in-mind: how long did it take for Obama to climb up to this lead? It all began shortly after the events of September 15th. Even if McCain began to crawl back, it probably wouldn't be quickly enough to catch-up; and forget about McCain establishing any kind of lead in the time we have left.
Meanwhile, events will be occurring that will slow any such climb.
The debate, if it's like the other three, will only serve to bolster or stabilize Obama's spot in the polls. Then we have a blank week (10/20) with no structured/scheduled events - this is probably McCain's only clear runway where he can attempt to achieve flight. Obama's team will likely release the September fundraising numbers in order to blunt any attempt at achieving recovery momentum.
Much of the following week will be dominated by anticipation of, coverage of, and reaction to Obama's infomercial. Obama's team is going to have remaining weak Obama voters and undecided voters firmly in its sights with whatever speech he delivers, and it's conceivable that he could see a small bump from that speech.
McCain's kinda screwed, save for some kind of live boy/dead girl + Obama scenario.