"The poll, which topped the Drudge Report on Monday afternoon (shock poll), was issued by American Research Group Inc. (ARG). In the poll, conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 57% of likely Democratic voters said they were supporting Sen. Clinton, compared with 37% for Sen. Obama. Just last week, each candidate received 45% in an ARG poll in the state. Other recent polls generally show a much smaller Clinton lead.
But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics dont include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like theyve been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days."
"Other pollsters numbers disagree with ARGs. Clay Richards, who runs the Quinnipiac University Polling Institutes Pennsylvania poll, said he doesnt expect his poll that will be published Tuesday to show much difference from the last one, which had a Clinton lead of six points. I dont see that much movement in Pennsylvania myself, Mr. Richards said by phone from Harrisburg on Monday. He declined to comment specifically on his rivals contradictory numbers."
"Both pollsters agreed that Sen. Obama hasnt been hurt much by his remarks about small-town Pennsylvania voters last week. Mr. Bennett said few respondents mentioned them. Mr. Richards said, My hunch is wont make much of a difference because most voters who might feel insulted by his comments were already Clinton voters or republicans who werent going to vote for him, anyway.
