JayDubya said:
It's not a strategy for "oil independence" (i.e. more oil does not further the cause of the non-use of oil) but it reduces dependence on foreign oil as an energy source, and that's kind of a mouthful, so maybe "energy independence" ain't a bad thing to call that.
Even if your most conservative (lol) estimates are true, more domestic oil = less demand for foreign oil. You can say it would only have a modest effect or for a short time, but you can't say that more domestic access to more of a natural resource does not further the goal in question, if not the lofty, pie-in-the-sky goal you'd prefer to forward.
The DoE estimates drilling in ANWR would reduce American oil imports by 3 to 6%.
In terms of the benefits people generally desire or anticipate from energy independence (inoculation against global price shocks, immunity against OPEC-style cartel economics, being able to tell horrible regimes like the Saudis to stuff it) that would do nothing. The US would be just as reliant on other nations as ever.
"Well, 5% would be better than nothing, right?"
Except that increasing domestic oil flow, or other temporary measures to lower the price of gas (hallo there gas tax holiday!) is that they will perpetuate short-term incentives that will cause long-term pain.
Putting aside climate change (because I know you're sympathetic to the global warming truthers), we know that the price of gas is eventually going to get damn high. Right now though, we have a lot of infrastructure built on the assumption that gas will be plentiful and cheap.
What I mean is there are tens of millions of vehicles on the road that run on gasoline. Gajillions of miles of paved road just for these vehicles. Bazillions of gas stations so they can refuel. Cities and suburbs that developed on the assumption that people could drive wherever they wanted.
Every year we put off a major change in energy policy, we're likely to see more sprawl, more gasoline-based cars on the road, etc. And the large-scale changes are the ones that are necessary for energy independence.
Now this ain't a libertarian vs. dirty socialist issue.
You are more than welcome to argue that the current pickle we're in is a result of centralized planning, from those guys at the DoD who spent billions on the interstate highway to the hundreds of county-level Departments of Transportation and Transit Authorities who pandered to developers and constituents. Blame city zoning boards for their inflexibility in letting denser development happen.
You can argue that the market should be allowed to work and if there's a lot of economic pain, then people shouldn't have made stupid decisions. You can say that importing oil is just the result of supply and demand and that we should stop freaking out about it.
Just don't pretend that drilling somewhere that would produce 1/20th of our imported oil will lead to anything that could be called "energy independence" in any meaningful way. It won't.