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[Hootie]

Ahahaha, I'm watching the 2nd showing of Hardball right now and the fill-in for Matthews accidentally said "John McClane" instead of "McCain". :lol

 

[Tamanon]

It's possible the news came down late and Colbert literally had nothing to talk about... so he did what any good pundit would do; talk about himself!

That's actually exactly what happened. I think the bit worked after all personally.

 

[librasox]

I registered back in January and still haven't gotten anything in the mail. For you voting veterans out there, around when should I receive the required voting materials?

Also, an observation - I'd count on a landslide Obama victory, but he sure as hell won't be getting any help from my age demographic. Seriously, it's pathetic how many near-frenzied Obama fans I meet that refuse to vote either from some misdirected sense of rebellion against established traditions or an admitted laziness to even register. And I hear this stuff at PRINCETON of all places dammit. We're supposedly the nation's best and brightest :\

 

[GhaleonEB]

I registered back in January and still haven't gotten anything in the mail. For you voting veterans out there, around when should I receive the required voting materials?

I varies from state to state. Call your registration office. Just google "X voter registration" (X being your state) to find the registration office. Call them and ask if you are registered.

I wasn't sure if I could vote in the primary, it took 30 seconds and one phone call to confirm it.

 

[reilo]

Howard Fineman: Confirmed Obama Veep shortliss is Bayh, Biden, and Kaine.

 

[Tamanon]

Wow, that kid was a plant.:lol

 

[Incognito]

Bio of Obama's tenure as a Law Professor

Even includes links to Obama's syllabus's and final exams.

 

[StoOgE]

Librasox,

call your county clerks office and see if you are registered. You dont *have* to have a voter registration card to vote in most states. Check with them to see what you should bring, usually a birth certificate or state ID will do.

Also, it's up to people like you to convince people to go vote. Explain things like debt that we are going to inherit from this war and be paying off for 50 years, the need to get a control on alternative fuels now. Its going to be people our age when we are in our 50's and 60's who are completely fucked because gas costs 50 dollars a gallon if we dont do something about it. When I was in college there were plenty of people like you described. Thats why the youth vote never turns out, because of people like that. Slap some sense into them again and again. Tell them to talk to their parents and ask them how tough times are.

Part of the problem is college students dont live in the real world. They live in fantasy world where mom and dad pay for most things and you party all the time. I remember, its only been 3 years for me. Until you have bills (and I mean real bills, not "Oh my god my 200 dollars in rent because 8 of us live in a 3 bedroom), mom and dad arent their to bale you out and your biggest concern is what party is going to have the hottest/slutties women you dont know what the world is like.

Grab them by the throats and shake them until they give a shit. Call your county clerk, become a deputy registrar and register your friends. Its really not that hard. I used to keep a stack of forms in my truck. Whenever people started talking politics I would just causally throw out there that I have registration paperwork if anyone needs it. Yes, it makes you a dork, but who cares?

Also, write down a list your closer friends who said they are going to vote and call them on election day (or early voting if you have it).. and if you have to DRIVE them to the polling place and wait for them to vote. I was in the poor part of town on March 4th bussing little old ladies I dont know from Adam without cars to the polls all day to vote for Obama. Thats why you should vote early. If you have already voted you can spend Nov. 2nd getting people who dont have cars to the polls. This is especially critical if you live in a part of the country where it could be icy/nasty in early Nov. If weather hits the wrong city in Ohio, Obama could lose. We need people willing to risk life and limb (and bumpers) to make sure people get their ass to the polling place.

GOTV has more to do with who wins an election than anything. If more people like Obama but more McCain people show up on Nov 2nd guess who wins?

 

[gcubed]

And really, there's so much crow out there to munch on, there's not point in going back and counting it all.

and whenever the republicans want to mount an attack against the ineffective dems, another one of them gets arrested. Not a good way to go into an election season

 

[StoOgE]

and whenever the republicans want to mount an attack against the ineffective dems, another one of them gets arrested. Not a good way to go into an election season

and not just normal arrested. High profile republicans going down for corruption related to their office.

In a way, Obama caught a break that when the Spitzer story broke he was seen as a "Clinton Supporter" and not a Dem.

Obama might just be the luckiest politician alive.

 

[The Librarian]

and not just normal arrested. High profile republicans going down for corruption related to their office.

In a way, Obama caught a break that when the Spitzer story broke he was seen as a "Clinton Supporter" and not a Dem.

Obama might just be the luckiest politician alive.

Are you doubting Obama's electability?

 

[Tamanon]

and not just normal arrested. High profile republicans going down for corruption related to their office.

In a way, Obama caught a break that when the Spitzer story broke he was seen as a "Clinton Supporter" and not a Dem.

Obama might just be the luckiest politician alive.

Just wait until October when someone big on McCain's staff or McCain himself has legal trouble out of nowhere.:lol

 

[StoOgE]

Are you doubting Obama's electability?

not at all I drank the koolaide as much if not more than anyone else here, but the guy has great timing if nothing else.

I mean the path he took to becoming Senator is a great story, and I still dont know why the hell Kerry picked him to give the keynote in 04. That launched his path to the presidency.

 

[StoOgE]

Just wait until October when someone big on McCain's staff or McCain himself has legal trouble out of nowhere.:lol

He has some economic advisers who have VERY VERY VERY strong ties to the CDO's that burried this economy as well as people tied to getting the credit rating companies to rate those CDO's as investment grade debt. If not for those two things that cropped up under the Bush administration the sub-prime debt market wouldnt have had the capital to grow like it did. And without the sub-prime debt markets growth you wouldnt have so many people being able to get mortgages (especially % only mortgages that allowed speculators to hold 5-6 houses at once while they "flipped" them). Without as many purchasers in the market the housing bubble never would have been created and the housing sector wouldnt have grown like it did.

We would have had a harder time recovering from the 2000 market crash, but we would have been out of it a few years ago and the crash wouldnt have been nearly as big as it is now.

Thats the real reason he picked Kaine (assuming its a done deal). Kaine made his name as a lawyer suing mortgage companies for screwing over borrowers. He is going to be able to send Kaine out as an attack dog against McCain's economic crew for fucking over borrowers and the U.S. economy.

Kaine is going to be able to be a populist attack dog on this issue. Kinda like Edwards without the mills.

 

[Tamanon]

Realistically, much of politics is based on luck, and then using the situations that luck provides you.

 

[TDG]

and I still dont know why the hell Kerry picked him to give the keynote in 04. That launched his path to the presidency.

Because Kerry is a fucking genius. Well actually, he's an uncharismatic fucking genius. But still, he set the wheels in motion.

 

[StoOgE]

Realistically, much of politics is based on luck, and then using the situations that luck provides you.

Very true. The old addage "Luck is when oppurtunity meets execution" is true. You can have all of the chances in the world, if you dont take advantage of them, what good is it.

Obama makes his own luck (insert picture of Dent)

 

[The Librarian]

not at all I drank the koolaide as much if not more than anyone else here, but the guy has great timing if nothing else.

I know you weren't, I was just being sarcastic.

And it seems the hard times for Republicans are not over:

For the first time in months, Senate Republicans have reason to feel better about their prospects in November. In a few states, they have put Democrats on the defensive over their opposition to additional domestic drilling at a time when gas prices have surpassed $4 per gallon. And public polls in Colorado, New Hampshire and Minnesota show GOP candidates in better position than many expected.

Still, there’s no escaping the fundamental reality that the outlook is bleak for Senate Republicans. The question isn’t whether Democrats will pick up seats; it’s whether the GOP can minimize its losses.

In an indication of how bad the national landscape is for Republicans, our initial rankings feature just one Democratic-held seat among those most likely to change hands. Here, then, is the first RealClearPolitics/Politico Scorecard of competitive Senate races:

1. Virginia

Open seat, now Republican

Despite the Old Dominion being a battleground state, Republicans have all but written off this race between two former governors. Jim Gilmore is trailing by more than 20 points in most polls and doesn’t have enough money to mount a sustained advertising blitz. Meanwhile, Democrat Mark Warner has more than $5 million in the bank — more than 40 times as much cash on hand as Gilmore.

2. New Mexico


Open seat, now Republican


After a contentious primary in which the more moderate candidate was defeated, Republican Rep. Steve Pearce hasn’t been able to gain momentum in a race in which polls show his opponent, Democratic Rep. Tom Udall, holding a substantial lead. Pearce’s war chest is largely depleted, and Udall’s famous family name and statewide profile as former state attorney general give him a big advantage.


3. Alaska

Sen. Ted Stevens (R)

Indicted Tuesday on seven criminal counts, Stevens now faces potentially perilous odds against Democrat Mark Begich in a state where ethics scandals have hamstrung the Republican Party. The only saving grace for the party is that Stevens may not survive the GOP primary, which would leave Republicans with an untainted, albeit inexperienced, nominee.

4. New Hampshire

Sen. John Sununu (R)

In a rematch from 2002, Sununu is trailing his longtime rival, former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, in a state that has trended Democratic over the past several years. Shaheen is running like an incumbent, airing advertisements as early as this spring, but Sununu has kept a low profile, saving his campaign funds for a post-Labor Day blitz.

5. Colorado

Open seat, now Republican

The Rocky Mountain State is one of the most environmentally friendly in the country. But with gas prices soaring, the race between Democratic Rep. Mark Udall, an environmentalist, and former Republican Rep. Bob Schaffer, who advocates a much more oil-industry-friendly approach, is shaping up as a referendum on energy issues. Both candidates are fighting for the center, and each portrays the other as out of the mainstream. They both have a point: Udall has a fairly liberal voting record, while Schaffer was a leading conservative when he served in Congress. Most polls show Udall leading.

6. Louisiana

Sen. Mary L. Landrieu (D)

In contrast to colleagues in Colorado, Landrieu sounds more enthusiastic about expanded drilling than many oil-state Republicans. But state Treasurer John Kennedy has tried to tie her to the Democratic Party’s opposition to offshore drilling and exploration in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge — even though, until last year, Kennedy was himself a Democrat. Still, polls show Landrieu is the most, and perhaps the only, vulnerable Democrat this year.

7. Oregon

Sen. Gordon Smith (R)

Based on his advertising blitz, it wouldn’t be unreasonable to conclude that Smith is a Barack Obama-supporting Democrat — indeed, one of his ads touts his work with the presumed Democratic presidential nominee. Smith has been forced to run from his party in a state where the Republican brand is viewed unfavorably. He has a big financial edge over Democratic state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and has used it to launch a sustained ad blitz. But the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recognizes it has a promising opportunity here and has responded with two ads slamming Smith.

8. North Carolina

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R)

For a senator with a profile as high as Dole’s, one would think this race wouldn’t make the list. But the DSCC has reserved nearly $6 million in advertising time against the senator, and the committee believes state Sen. Kay Hagan is one of its best recruits. Dole has a financial advantage, and her early ads helped her regain a comfortable lead in the polls. It remains to be seen whether she can hold on to that early edge as the campaign gets under way.

9. Mississippi

Sen. Roger Wicker (R)

Despite the fact that Mississippi is one of the most conservative states in the country, early polls show that Wicker, an appointee, can’t take his election to a full term for granted. Former Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove has baggage, but African-Americans are likely to turn out in higher numbers than in past elections, and Musgrove has pull among conservative white voters. Wicker, who has much more money on hand, is lesser known statewide at the moment.

10. Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R)

Polls show this race may be a blowout for Collins. It shouldn’t be, because Maine is a left-leaning state and this is a Democratic year, and Obama is polling well ahead of John McCain there. But Collins has defined herself as an independent in a state with a predilection toward independence. Democratic Rep. Tom Allen could make the race close, but he hasn’t yet.

From Politico.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Some context for Obama's $20 million Latino outreach program:



And the Florida ground game:

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/29/133614/610/483/558861



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/29/obama-months-ahead-of-gor_n_115554.html

Obama is really ahead of the curve on getting his organization in place, despite McCain's three-month head start.

Obama and the DNC is not only changing the face of politics as far as race, but how to run a fucking race. Meticulous preparation. Dean had the foresight for the 50 state strategy, but we needed a vehicle like the Obama machine to see it reach it's potential. No need for major ads now. Once the Olympics come, shit is about to get real.

 

[Tamanon]

This whole race is shaping up to be a big middle finger from Dean to the Kerry campaign.:lol

 

[dionysus]

Landrieu is not vulnerable. She is a lock. Anyone with that last name is a lock in Louisiana. That family is an old (and corrupt) political dynasty that we can't get rid of.

That being said, she is pretty clean. It was her ancestors who weren't. But then again, almost every politician in Louisiana is dirty but it is getting better.

Edit. We even reelected Jefferson. A fucking travesty. The man was caught taking bribes from the FBI disguised as Nigerian government officials.

 

[Dan]

Once the Olympics come, shit is about to get real.

What happens with the Olympics?

 

[dionysus]

What happens with the Olympics?

TV spots from 527s (worst thing to happen to campaigns) and candidates.

LET THE FUCKING CANDIDATES SPEAK FOR THEMSELVES! THANK YOU MCCAIN!

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

What happens with the Olympics?

http://www.adweek.com/aw/content_display/news/media/e3i023cb54210a5a93aa7f324adfc1b2518

NEW YORK The potential for a return to TV advertising in presidential politics was raised last week after Democratic contender Barack Obama opened his campaign war chest and earmarked $5 million for ads during NBC's coverage of the Beijing Olympic games next month. Sources said Republican candidate John McCain has also talked to NBC about a possible Olympics buy, but has no deal yet for any network spots.

According to analysts, the Obama buy was the single biggest purchase of ad time by a presidential candidate on broadcast network TV in perhaps three decades, "It's pretty unprecedented," in recent modern campaigning, said Evan Tracey, COO of TNS Media Intelligence Campaign Media Analysis Group.

 

[Dan]

Ah, interesting. Thanks.

 

[Lv99 Slacker]

Oh god. Ludacris has just released a music video for Obama. :lol

 

[maximum360]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12149.html

Before Ron Fournier returned to The Associated Press in March 2007, the veteran political reporter had another professional suitor: John McCain’s presidential campaign.

In October 2006, the McCain team approached Fournier about joining the fledgling operation, according to a source with knowledge of the talks. In the months that followed, said a source, Fournier spoke about the job possibility with members of McCain’s inner circle, including political aides Mark Salter, John Weaver and Rick Davis.

Salter, who remains a top McCain adviser, said in an e-mail to Politico that Fournier was considered for “a senior advisory role” in communications.

“He did us the courtesy of considering the offer before politely declining it,” Salter said.

He added that Fournier was an attractive target because of his knowledge about the political process, not because of his ideological or partisan leanings. Salter says he still does not know what, if any, those are.

Fournier has taken lumps in the left-leaning blogosphere in recent weeks, following the disclosure of a friendly e-mail exchange with Karl Rove from 2004. This was followed by an analysis of his work by Media Matters, a watchdog group that critiques news coverage from a liberal perspective. The group alleged that the influential Washington bureau chief has revealed a pro-McCain bias.

At the time of his dealings with McCain, Fournier was not with the wire service, his home for most of his career. Instead, he was editor-in-chief of a new — now-shuttered — political website Hotsoup.com

Co-founded with such principals as Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign, and Joe Lockhart, Bill Clinton’s former press secretary, the bipartisan site was established to discuss and debate hot-button issues with a cast of boldfaced names in politics and pop culture. The hope was that politically savvy readers would gravitate to the site’s social networking functions.

But Hotsoup never took flight, and Fournier returned to the AP as online political editor. (Disclosure: Fournier also spoke with Politico about potential employment before rejoining the AP.)

In a May 2008 shake-up, Fournier was named Washington bureau chief, a post from which he oversees daily campaign coverage and is entrusted to analyze returns and make the final election-night call on the presidential election in November.

When reached by phone Monday, Fournier declined to comment, but referred the matter to AP spokesman Paul Colford, who issued a statement:

“It is not uncommon for journalists to be approached by political campaigns, elected officials and government agencies about possible job opportunities. Ron Fournier was approached by the McCain campaign and decided he wasn't interested in working for a political campaign, months before he rejoined AP in March 2007.”

The revolving door between journalism and partisan politics has turned faster in recent years. Among the most prominent recent converts is veteran journalist Linda Douglass, who joined Barack Obama's campaign in May, fresh from reporting on his campaign for National Journal.

Fournier also met privately with McCain in his Senate office in late 2006, a discussion that Salter maintains was related to that “Internet thing.” An AP spokesman agreed, telling Politico that any “direct conversations” with McCain “were within the context of operating and editing Hotsoup.com.”

Supporting Salter’s recollection, an October 2006 press release announcing a partnership between MSNBC and Hotsoup listed several contributors to the site, including McCain, Obama, President Bill Clinton, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Mitt Romney.

Even before Fournier was named bureau chief, some liberal critics asserted that the AP reporter seemed too cozy with McCain.

In April, Fournier and AP reporter Liz Sidoti interviewed McCain in front of a packed audience during the news organization’s annual meeting, during which they took heat from liberal bloggers for bringing the senator his favorite kind of Dunkin’ Donuts (with sprinkles).

“There's something about this that undermines the notion of objective and detached journalism,” Steven Benen wrote on Salon the following day.

Taking over the bureau chief position a few weeks later, Fournier quickly pushed changes based around his idea of “accountability journalism,” in which reporters are encouraged to adapt a more blunt, interpretive style as a way of “cutting through the clutter,” as he recently told Politico.

Fournier and his allies in the wire service say reporters are not to make ideological or partisan judgments but should be allowed to call it like they see it when they see deceptions or hypocrisy among politicians of any stripe.

But liberal critics of the Fournier-influenced style, including writers at Talking Points Memo, allege it has produced coverage that is softer on McCain at the expense of the Democrats.

“The Associated Press' fluffing of John McCain is getting almost cartoonish at this point,” TPM’s Greg Sargent wrote in a July 9 post about how the wire service did not mention the senator’s joke about killing Iranians.

On July 14, TPM founder Josh Marshall wrote that Fournier was the reason “why the premier wire service’s coverage sucks so bad” during the 2008 election.

That same day, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee released a report on the investigations into the death of former football-star-turned-soldier Pat Tillman and the capture of Pvt. Jessica Lynch.

Deep in the 50-page report was an e-mail between Fournier and Rove, then still at the White House, about the ongoing investigation.

“How does our country continue to produce men and women like this?" Rove asked Fournier.

Fournier responded: "The Lord creates men and women like this all over the world. But only the great and free countries allow them to flourish. Keep up the fight."

In response to the blogosphere uproar over the Rove e-mail, Fournier said he regretted the “breezy nature of the correspondence.”

On Media Matters, Eric Alterman wrote that “Fournier's suck-up comments to Karl Rove were not evidence of a reporter's mere ‘breeziness’ but of a mind-set that is reflected in Fournier's and AP's coverage; one that has the effect of perverting the truth and misleading AP's readers.”

The Rove quote was quickly picked up on numerous left-leaning sites, including The Huffington Post, Daily Kos and Crooks and Liars.

On July 22, Eric Boehlert wrote a lengthy analysis of Fournier’s work for Media Matters titled, “The AP has a Ron Fournier problem.” After digging through Lexis-Nexis, Boehlert concluded that the bureau chief’s “McCain love runs deep and goes back years.”

Fournier is an unlikely boogeyman in Washington’s ideological wars. Covering presidential campaigns and the Clinton White House for years, he was a consistent news-breaker while maintaining the classic low-profile style of a wire reporter.

In a 2000 profile in The Washington Post, media writer Howard Kurtz described him as among the “most dogged shoe-leather scribes around,” but one who “avoids the spotlight himself.”

Unlike eight years ago, however, Fournier’s pieces in this presidential campaign cycle typically have not been straight news. His hard-hitting “On Deadline” columns — in which he described some candidates as flip-floppers and phonies — quickly made the rounds among the online chattering class throughout the primaries. Powerhouse websites such as the Drudge Report regularly linked to them, with a trickledown effect bringing Fournier’s ideas down to bloggers.

In previous interviews, Fournier said the pieces were analysis, not opinion. Among fellow Washington reporters and political operatives, Fournier has been regarded widely as a straight shooter who doesn’t wear his politics on his sleeve.

“I have known Ron for 12 years, and I don’t have the slightest idea what his politics are,” said Lockhart, who dealt with Fournier while working in the Clinton White House and, later, in launching Hotsoup.

“I have never come across someone who plays it down the middle as much as Ron does,” Lockhart added.

And when asked about why the McCain campaign was interested in bringing Fournier aboard, Salter said that he was a “very smart guy” whose 2006 book, “Applebee’s America” — co-written with Dowd and Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik — showed an understanding of modern political campaigns.

“Could never tell his politics,” Salter added.

 

[sprsk]

Oh god. Ludacris has just released a music video for Obama. :lol

I love how the last few seconds are devoted to showing how "black" Obama is.

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

Oh god. Ludacris has just released a music video for Obama. :lol

This is kinda fire.

 

[StoOgE]

I love how the last few seconds are devoted to showing how "black" Obama is.

I actually like it, but you know that Obama is going to have to denounce and reject the dirty dirty and possibly purple drank now right?

 

[mckmas8808]

Olberman just said that if Obama picks his VP before the Olympics then those $5 million ads being played during the Olympics could have Obama's and the VP's name on them.

Of course this would be freaking BRILLIANT considering that McCain wouldn't have a VP picked for about 1 complete month!

Talk about a head start.

 

[StoOgE]

Olberman just said that if Obama picks his VP before the Olympics then those $5 million ads being played during the Olympics could have Obama's and the VP's name on them.

Of course this would be freaking BRILLIANT considering that McCain wouldn't have a VP picked for about 1 complete month!

Talk about a head start.

Had not thought about that, but its also one months extra of bumper stickers to get name recognition out for the Veep pick. Especially if McCain goes with someone like Pawlenty (which insiders suggest McCain wants, who might be the biggest cluster fuck of a pick possible) who is equally unknown on the national scene.

 

[GoutPatrol]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12149.html

Oh god. Not them. Not SPRINKLES.

 

[StoOgE]

Oh god. Not them. Not SPRINKLES.

wait, are we sure it was just sprinkles and not full on jimmies or dragees?

 

[mckmas8808]

New "Crank that Barack Obama" song.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Anyone think Kaine may be too much of a double down on inexperience? I like him and think he definitely brings great things to the table (Virginia and speaking Spanish for instance) but it seems like an odd pairing to throw against the public perception of McCain's strength and experience on foreign policy.

Bayh has more experience and drastically cut taxes as governor of Indiana; and he was a Clinton supporter, so picking him could be a further step towards unification

 

[Tamanon]

Wasn't Bayh an Iraq War supporter also?

 

[StoOgE]

Anyone think Kaine may be too much of a double down on inexperience? I like him and think he definitely brings great things to the table (Virginia and speaking Spanish for instance) but it seems like an odd pairing to throw against the public perception of McCain's strength and experience on foreign policy.

Bayh has more experience and drastically cut taxes as governor of Indiana; and he was a Clinton supporter, so picking him could be a further step towards unification

I dont think unification is a huge problem anymore personally.

Like I said, Kaine isnt my first choice, but I like him. I also think the executive experience (and second in command experience) makes it hard for McCain to call him out on lack of experience. I also believe that Obama is picking someone who doesnt so much help him win as it is someone that can help him get shit done in Washington. You dont want an JFK/LBJ situation where the two guys hate each other just to win an election (which is the big problem with Hill dawg.

I think Bayh has upside too, and I think that he *personally* is young enough and hasnt been around so long that he cant be sold as something of an outsider. Obviously family history could make it a hard sell.

Obama is in a bit of a tough spot.. he doesnt have a ton of experience, and if he wants another "change candidate" he needs to pick someone else with little experience. I think honestly there is a senatorial candidate from VA that Obama wants more and would be a better pick, *but* the dems need that Senate seat.

 

[Door2Dawn]

Anyone think Kaine may be too much of a double down on inexperience? I like him and think he definitely brings great things to the table (Virginia and speaking Spanish for instance) but it seems like an odd pairing to throw against the public perception of McCain's strength and experience on foreign policy.

Bayh has more experience and drastically cut taxes as governor of Indiana; and he was a Clinton supporter, so picking him could be a further step towards unification

 

[alr1ght]

I can see McCain's new attack ad now:

"Heh heh heh, Barack had to pick someone with the same name as me...."

"Now I'm a "Cain" you can believe it"

*creepily gleems at the camera*

 

[GhaleonEB]

Had not thought about that, but its also one months extra of bumper stickers to get name recognition out for the Veep pick. Especially if McCain goes with someone like Pawlenty (which insiders suggest McCain wants, who might be the biggest cluster fuck of a pick possible) who is equally unknown on the national scene.

Using the Olympics as a national platform to introduce the veep is especially a good strategy if he/she is relatively unknown. It really would be a brilliant move.

 

[Mumei]

Anyone think Kaine may be too much of a double down on inexperience? I like him and think he definitely brings great things to the table (Virginia and speaking Spanish for instance) but it seems like an odd pairing to throw against the public perception of McCain's strength and experience on foreign policy.

Bayh has more experience and drastically cut taxes as governor of Indiana; and he was a Clinton supporter, so picking him could be a further step towards unification

If we looked just at his record as Governor:

Stressing fiscal responsibility, lower taxes, job creation and lean government, Bayh's tenure as governor was highlighted by eight years without raising taxes, the largest single tax cut and largest budget surplus in state history, "welfare-to-work"–type social programs, increasing annual school funding, high academic standards and new college opportunities, the creation of over 350,000 new jobs, the strengthening of law enforcement and improved environmental quality. He signed the 21st Century Scholars Act in 1992, legislation that states that every child in Indiana who is eligible for the free lunch program in a public school, graduates from high school and signs a pledge not to experiment with illegal drugs is entitled to a full tuition scholarship to an Indiana public university of his or her choice. By the end of his second term, Bayh had an approval rating of nearly 80 percent.

I'd say yes, but I'd really like to see someone who opposed the Iraq War from the beginning, and him being a former Chairman of the DLC makes me gag.

 

[Y2Kev]

What are ratings typically like for the summer olympics? I thought the winter olympics was a big failure for NBC and a big contributing factor to this was Time Delay...I can't imagine it is going to be that much better with the games being in Beijing.

 

[StoOgE]

What are ratings typically like for the summer olympics? I thought the winter olympics was a big failure for NBC and a big contributing factor to this was Time Delay...I can't imagine it is going to be that much better with the games being in Beijing.

Summer Olympics are a much bigger deal and the opening ceremonies will be a big deal, but NBC is also leveraging their cable networks to do more live stuff.

 

[Tamanon]

:lol at a fly actually landing on McCain during his interview with Stephapopolous. Daily Show's segment on McCain's "pity" method of campaigning was great.

 

[Lv99 Slacker]

Didn't Terry Mcauliffe say that Kaine was going to be Obama's VP? So he called it before anybody

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

I can see McCain's new attack ad now:

"Heh heh heh, Barack had to pick someone with the same name as me...."

"Now I'm a "Cain" you can believe it"

*creepily gleems at the camera*

Made even worse by the fact that it'll be Oba- MacKaine

 

[grandjedi6]

VICE PRESIDENT TIM KAINE?
Pros and Cons of a New Dominion Decision
Larry J. Sabato
Director, U.Va. Center for Politics


We have no earthly idea if Virginia Governor Tim Kaine is Obama's choice for Vice President. All we know is that distinguished reporters who claim to have good sources are calling and saying that Kaine is on the short-short list.
Since the Crystal Ball is based in Virginia, and since we have followed Tim Kaine's career since it began on the Richmond City Council in 1994, we'll offer our readers a brief precis on what Kaine would add to the ticket, and what he would not, should the rumors prove accurate.
As with all potential Veep picks, there are pluses and minuses. Let's start with Kaine's advantages:

1. Personal Chemistry
There can be little doubt that this is the main reason why Obama is looking at Kaine. The first state governor outside Obama's Illinois to endorse Obama for President, Kaine was immediately drawn to the Illinois senator because they are two peas in a political pod. Both Harvard Law graduates with Kansas roots, both attorneys with a central focus on civil rights, and both relatively new to the big leagues, Obama and Kaine clearly like one another and enjoy each other's company.
Obama has realized that a modern Vice President practically lives with the Chief Executive, especially in times of crisis, and he wants someone he can trust completely. One other similarity that some see is less flattering. Obama and Kaine are both supremely self-confident, and their adversaries (and even some of their friends) occasionally detect a hint of hubris and arrogance. On the other hand, we have never known a President or governor who was genuinely humble. That special quality possessed by the meek doesn't go hand in hand with high political office.

2. Emphasis on Domestic Policy
The foremost issue in the minds of voters isn't Iraq or foreign affairs anymore; it's the sour economy and domestic policy. A governor focuses daily on the key components of domestic concern--jobs, education, transportation, health care, and the like. Kaine could speak with self assurance in these fields. Not only has he served as governor, but he was on the Richmond City Council from 1994 to 2001 (when he was elected lieutenant governor), and the Council-elected mayor of Richmond from 1998-2001. As an ambassador to the urban areas of America, Kaine would have credibility.

3. Out-of-Washington Change
It has not escaped anyone's notice that the President is at 25 percent approval, the Congress is around 15 percent, and even the Supreme Court has fallen below 50 percent in some polls. Since Obama has been in Washington barely long enough to learn the street layout, he can avoid the awful, prevailing D.C. taint. Kaine adds emphasis to the 'change' theme since he has no Washington experience of any kind.

4. Virginia
For decades, analysts prematurely proclaimed that the Old Dominion had become the New Dominion, and in the twenty-first century it's finally true. Among the most improbable of 2008's toss-up states, Virginia is on the knife's edge. It is not unreasonable to expect the sitting Governor to add a couple of points to Obama's total. Kaine is popular (mid-50s in most surveys), though not wildly so, as was his predecessor, Mark Warner, who is currently cruising to a big U.S. Senate victory in the state.
Oh, it almost goes without saying that John McCain would have a very difficult time finding the 13 electoral votes he might lose in Virginia. Keep in mind that Virginia has voted Republican in thirteen of the last fourteen presidential contests (save only LBJ's in 1964), and the state is tied for the best GOP record in the nation. Even Georgian Jimmy Carter, who won all the other states of the South, couldn't take Virginia. Defeat in the New Dominion would be a major and perhaps decisive blow to McCain. Could Tim Kaine be the first VP nominee since Lyndon Johnson in 1960 to deliver a critical, toss-up home state for his ticket?

5. Special Qualities
Kaine is Roman Catholic, often described as "devout" even though he is pro-choice in effect while projecting a pro-life image and accepting of the death penalty despite personal opposition to it. Catholics are a swing vote in 2008, and Kaine's Christian religious orientation matches Obama's. This might help with the campaign's much publicized outreach to church-going Americans. Kaine is a former missionary to Honduras and he speaks fluent Spanish, which can only assist in the effort to woo Hispanics.
Kaine is more national than real Virginian (as a native of Virginia, this author can snobbishly suggest this), having been born in Minnesota, having grown up in Kansas, and having attended colleges in Missouri and Massachusetts. Therefore, Kaine has ties to three swing states (MN, MO, and VA). Kaine has a bipartisan dimension, since his father-in-law is Linwood Holton, Virginia's first Republican Governor of the 20th century, who served from 1970 to 1974. Republicans will be quick to add that Holton has long since left the party--Holton says the party left him--and he recently told this author that the only Republican he has voted for in recent times is retiring U.S. Sen. John Warner, a moderate.
Kaine is highly articulate, young (age 50, close to Obama's 46 years), and an accomplished campaigner. As a team, they will look good and make sense, much as the youthful team of Bill Clinton and Al Gore produced synergy for 1992's Democrats. Finally, fulfilling the oldest VP mandate of "first, do no harm", Kaine is squeaky clean and scandal-free, as even his enemies admit, and he is unlikely to commit gaffes or deflect attention from the presidential nominee


There are no perfect people, and that goes double for VP picks. So Kaine brings certain disadvantages and baggage to Obama, too:

1. Lack of Experience Where It Is Most Needed
Other than the possibility of racial leakage at the polls--the chance that many white voters who would otherwise vote Democratic this year will be unable to cast a ballot for an African-American--there is no greater threat to Obama's victory than his inexperience. With fewer than four years in Washington as a senator, most of which has been spent running for president, plus a stint in the Illinois State Senate, Obama's public office resume is undeniably thin. His recent successful Magical Mystery Tour of eight European and Middle Eastern countries notwithstanding, Obama has little or no foreign policy, military, and national security experience.
Unless one counts foreign trade missions, Kaine has even less knowledge of these areas than Obama. Survey after survey has shown that Americans have a hard time, at least so far, seeing Obama in the role of commander-in-chief. A VP pick with solid background in the military or international arena would be reassuring. Kaine provides no comfort there, and it may cost Obama. Overall, Kaine has executive experience as a mayor and governor that perhaps balances Obama's purely legislative resume. Yet this would be a team whose elective resume is rather skimpy, beginning only in the mid-1990s, with just one truly consequential office each--and not a full term in it for either.

2. The Hillary Factor
Few insiders believe there is a chance Obama will pick Hillary Clinton, despite her near-tie with Obama in popular votes and delegates. The reasons are well known, including lack of personal chemistry and the potential campaign and White House role of Bill Clinton. But given continuing reluctance among some Hillary voters to back Obama, is it a risk for Obama to form a ticket with Kaine, one of his earliest and most ardent backers? Might it not make more sense for Obama to select a former strong Hillary backer--though someone of pleasant personality with whom Obama could forge a working partnership? The obvious name is Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, who some say is also on Obama's short-short list.

3. Kaine's Governorship
Few nonpartisan observers in Virginia regard Kaine's tenure in the Governor's Office as particularly successful. Having known every governor since Albertis Harrison (1962-1966) and having studied the records of the dozen most recent governors, I would characterize Kaine's term to this point as belonging to the bottom quartile. To be fair, he has a year and a half to go, and sometimes a Virginia governor can make a final push that raises his grade considerably.
So far, Kaine has had one shining moment after the Virginia Tech massacre in April 2007, when he handled the tragedy with aplomb--easily on a par with Gov. Frank Keating's management of the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995 or Gov. Haley Barbour's skill in bringing Mississippi back from the brink of chaos after Hurricane Katrina. But otherwise, his executive tenure has recorded few significant successes and one giant, overriding failure in the transportation field where Kaine hoped to make his mark. Is Kaine solely responsible? Absolutely not.
The Republican House of Delegates, controlled by social conservatives and anti-tax partisans, has been determined not to give Kaine a major achievement. "No more Mark Warners" has been their slogan, believing that the GOP's willingness to work with Kaine's Democratic predecessor to pass a large tax hike created a political juggernaut in Warner, and deeply alienated the right-wing Republican base. Still, even Democratic legislators friendly to Kaine say privately that he is often a distant governor, certainly compared to Warner, inclined to give orders without thorough follow-up and flexibility. Whether Kaine's record as Governor would matter much to a national audience is doubtful, so this may not be much of a threat to Obama.

4. The Aftermath in Virginia
Naturally, Obama would not be especially concerned about the post-Kaine era in Virginia, and given the frustrations of his governorship, one could hardly blame Kaine for grabbing a chance to move up and out--and eventually perhaps have his own shot at the presidency. However, many Virginia Democrats are privately unhappy at the prospect of Kaine leaving in mid-term, potentially the first Virginia governor not to complete the single four-year term since it was established beginning in 1852. That is because Kaine would be succeeded by a deeply conservative Republican lieutenant governor, Bill Bolling.
Undoubtedly and appropriately, Bolling would quickly move to put his own stamp on state government with a new Cabinet, agency heads, and board appointments. Under an agreement previously reached with the now-presumptive 2009 GOP gubernatorial nominee, Attorney General Bob McDonnell, Bolling would be the Republican nominee for a full term. (The election is in November 2009.) Bolling had side-stepped a divisive GOP primary with a grateful McDonnell in order to run for reelection to the lieutenant governorship, but part of their gentleman's agreement--confirmed by both men to me at the time--guaranteed Bolling the nomination if he should succeed to the top spot before the June 2009 nominating deadline. Thus, for the first time since 1852, an incumbent Governor, Bill Bolling, would seek reelection.
While mistakes in office could always deny him the prize, the presumption would be that Virginians would not want three governors in one year. Thus, Kaine's departure could deliver a five-year Bolling governorship, quite possibly followed by a term of McDonnell. (The modern Virginia tradition has been to give a party at least two consecutive terms in the governor's chair, even though the one-term-and-out rule means that different people would be elected every four years.) The Bolling term would include the redistricting year of 2011, possibly enabling Republicans to tenure in their state legislative and U.S. House incumbents for another decade. The Senate of Virginia, narrowly controlled by the Democrats (21 to 19) and dependant upon the good health of an eighty-something incumbent, could also go Republican in 2011, with a GOP governor leading the charge. This would wipe out Democratic momentum in Virginia.
We're jumping way ahead, and perhaps this nightmare scenario for Democrats would be short-circuited somewhere along the way--but it is very much in the minds of senior Virginia Democrats as they contemplate an early Kaine departure for the Vice Presidency. And the top Republicans will hardly believe their luck, if this comes to pass. In all states, gaining the governorship is the key to expanding a party's political control. The Virginia GOP has been deep down and virtually out since 2001, but they may well owe their comeback to a Democratic presidential candidate and a Democratic governor. By the way, this same situation could develop even if Kaine is not chosen VP. A President-Elect Obama would almost certainly offer Kaine a Cabinet post. Were Kaine to take it, Republicans would begin their roll.


Democrats will happily absorb the first half of this essay, while Republicans will eagerly focus on the second half. As always, the Crystal Ball tries to walk in the middle of the road--that six-inch-wide yellow line where you get hit from both sides.
This entire piece of prose is pure speculation, of course. But hasn't it been fun?

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[thefit]

Just wait until October when someone big on McCain's staff or McCain himself has legal trouble out of nowhere.:lol

I don't think the media would care. He's already been in trouble having been knee deep in the savings and loans debacle of the 80's and he's currently breaking election laws that the FEC refuses to bust him on. Boggles the mind how someone so crooked has been given a pass for so long AND allowed to run for president.

 

[maximum360]

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/opinion/30wed1.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print&oref=slogin

July 30, 2008
Editorial
Low-Road Express

Well, that certainly didn’t take long. On July 3, news reports said Senator John McCain, worried that he might lose the election before it truly started, opened his doors to disciples of Karl Rove from the 2004 campaign and the Bush White House. Less than a month later, the results are on full display. The candidate who started out talking about high-minded, civil debate has wholeheartedly adopted Mr. Rove’s low-minded and uncivil playbook.

In recent weeks, Mr. McCain has been waving the flag of fear (Senator Barack Obama wants to “lose” in Iraq), and issuing attacks that are sophomoric (suggesting that Mr. Obama is a socialist) and false (the presumptive Democratic nominee turned his back on wounded soldiers).

Mr. McCain used to pride himself on being above this ugly brand of politics, which killed his own 2000 presidential bid. But he clearly tossed his inhibitions aside earlier this month when he put day-to-day management of his campaign in the hands of one acolyte of Mr. Rove and gave top positions to two others. The résumés of the new team’s members included stints in Mr. Bush’s White House and in his 2004 re-election campaign, one of the most negative and divisive in memory.

Almost immediately, the McCain campaign was using Mr. Rove’s well-honed tactics, starting with an attempt to widen this nation’s damaging ideological divide by painting Mr. Obama as a far-left kook. On July 18, Mr. McCain even suggested that Mr. Obama is a socialist to the left of the Senate’s only avowed socialist: Bernie Sanders of Vermont.

Mr. Obama’s politics are hardly far-left, and anyone who has spent time in a socialist country knows how ridiculous that label is for any member of Congress. It would be bad enough if Mr. McCain honestly believed what he said, but we find that hard to imagine.

Mr. Obama has distorted Mr. McCain’s record at times, but Mr. McCain’s false charges have been more frequent: that Mr. Obama opposes “innovation” on energy policy; that he voted 94 times for “higher taxes”; and that Mr. Obama is personally responsible for rising gasoline prices.

And Mr. McCain has not stopped there. Taking a page straight from Mr. Bush and Mr. Rove, Mr. McCain has been trying to distract voters from his support for an unending war in Iraq by portraying Mr. Obama as unpatriotic and weak. This line of attack reached a crescendo last week when Mr. McCain fumed and fussed and went to places with European-sounding names while Mr. Obama traveled abroad.

Mr. McCain repeatedly said Mr. Obama “would rather lose a war to win a political campaign” and that he “does not understand” what is at stake in Iraq. He also accused Mr. Obama of canceling a visit to wounded American troops in a German military hospital because news cameras were not allowed. That’s a false account of what occurred — and Mr. McCain ignored Mr. Obama’s unheralded visit to a combat hospital in Baghdad.

Like Mr. Bush, Mr. McCain confuses opposition to an unnecessary war with a lack of spine and an unwillingness to use force when the nation is truly in danger. Obviously, Mr. Obama is untested as a commander in chief and his trip was intended to reassure voters. But Mr. McCain is as untested in this area as Mr. Obama, and it is hard to imagine a worse role model than the one Mr. McCain seems to be adopting: President Bush.

Many voters are wondering whether a McCain presidency would be an extension of Mr. Bush’s two disastrous terms. If the way Mr. McCain is running his campaign these days is an indication, Americans don’t have to wait until next January for the answer to that one.