PoliGAF Thread of THE END and FIST POUNDS (NYT: Hillary drop out/endorse Saturday)

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Keylime

ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎγλοÏÏον καί ÏεÏδολÏγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
Obama speaking now
 
Stumpokapow said:
There are 48 delegates on Tuesday and 55 today.

Assuming you give him 24 on Tuesday and 10 today, that's 34. As I mentioned, 6 superdelegates will support the pledged delegate winner which is Obama officially, and the remainder of the Edwards delegates will break Obama.

So assuming he bombs royally tonight and bombs royally on Tuesday, he'll still only need around a dozen supers.

If you give him 30 on Tuesday and 20 today, the Edwards delegates and "will support the pledged winner" delegates will carry him over the line. It's over.

close, but wrong

montana has 16, SD has 17, so thats...33 delegates tuesday, not 48. PR does have 55, so the total number of Pledged delegates is -- 86 overall. he'll get 8 from montana and 9 from SD, so thats 17 from tuesday. as for PR, out of 55, estimates around 24-25.
 

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Harold Ickes and Tina Flournoy made the following statement this evening:

Today’s results are a victory for the people of Florida who will have a voice in selecting our Party’s nominee and will see its delegates seated at our party’s convention. The decision by the Rules and Bylaws Committee honors the votes that were cast by the people of Florida and allocates the delegates accordingly.

We strongly object to the Committee’s decision to undercut its own rules in seating Michigan’s delegates without reflecting the votes of the people of Michigan.

The Committee awarded to Senator Obama not only the delegates won by Uncommitted, but four of the delegates won by Senator Clinton. This decision violates the bedrock principles of our democracy and our Party.

We reserve the right to challenge this decision before the Credentials Committee and appeal for a fair allocation of Michigan’s delegates that actually reflect the votes as they were cast.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/05/clinton_campaign_statement_on.php

Well at least Florida is out of this for once :lol
 
videogamer said:
didn't you use to call Obama supporters cult members?
No.

harSon said:
Hag is off limits now?
Say whatever you want. To me it comes off as shitty and immature.

Odrion said:
Who cares what Mercury says he's voting Obama anyways.
Obama supporters should care what Hillary supporters think and say. Spazzes like the ones screaming Denver are probably a lost cause, but it's not smart to alienate voters that are needed for the general. You couldn't pay me to vote for McCain, but a little less Hillary-bashing and a little more olive branching could go along way imo.

AmishNazi said:
A lot of his supporters are entering politics for the first time so condescending remarks like yours really aren't a good idea. Unless of course you like the way the first 8 years of this millennium started.
Oh, give me a break. Are you saying people new to politics are so fragile that they can't take criticism? And also, see above about being the bigger person and actually reaching out. You might want to apply some of the ideas that Obama is espousing to your own politics.
 

Amir0x

Banned
oh man Obama. That is a terrible fucking reason to leave your church, seriously. Clearly this speech was not well prepared.
 
AmishNazi said:
When I stopped going to my church they eventually took me off the "membership list" or some shit. It's a christian thing.

Yeah, a member of a church is a lot different than just a dude who goes to church, you are 'officially a part of this church'
 

Odrion

Banned
Amir0x said:
Obama should have not resigned from Trinity.

Sadness is your own doing, Obama.
Meh, it was apparent that the church was being harassed and attacked by the media, I'm sure it's for a good cause.
 

Diablos

Member
This is so fucked up, guys.

Even if it doesn't go to the convention, this day seems to have just poured even more salt on the wound. Hillary supporters were PISSED OFF.

This could mark the beginning of the party seriously starting to split. If it doesn't go to Denver, but, say, the end of June, that gives the party, what? Almost two months for "healing" while McCain has basically had the whole year so far.

Also, the GOP was outside filming all the pissed off supporters. You could imagine how effective they will be in their commercials for the GE.
 

Keylime

ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎγλοÏÏον καί ÏεÏδολÏγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
Obama's speaking now, btw

CNN.com has the live stream
 

harSon

Banned
Amir0x said:
Obama should have not resigned from Trinity.

Sadness is your own doing, Obama.

It would be selfish for him to stay. The church is being unfairly characterized by the media and threatened to boot.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
kkaabboomm said:
close, but wrong

montana has 16, SD has 17, so thats...33 delegates tuesday, not 48. PR does have 55, so the total number of Pledged delegates is -- 86 overall. he'll get 8 from montana and 9 from SD, so thats 17 from tuesday. as for PR, out of 55, estimates around 24-25.

*doh* I was using the state delegate tallies that included supers.

Still, he needs 64. 12 Edwards + 6 "winner of elected delegates" + 24 PR + 17 Tuesday = 59.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Diablos said:
This is so fucked up, guys.

Even if it doesn't go to the convention, this day seems to have just poured even more salt on the wound. Hillary supporters were PISSED OFF.

This could mark the beginning of the party seriously starting to slip. If it doesn't go to Denver, but, say, the end of June, that gives the party, what? Almost two months for "healing" while McCain has basically had the whole year so far.

Also, the GOP was outside filming all the pissed off supporters. You could imagine how effective they will be in their commercials for the GE.

Erm, if the results had gone the way that Hillary wanted, it would have torn the party apart even further.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Obama's reason is basically "I can't deal with the media disassembling every comment someone from my church makes."

And this is a very real opening for criticism. If he CAN'T handle that without bailing out, there's reason to believe it extends to other aspects of his political future. I am genuinely disappointed with his reaction here, as bowing to the media is one of the last things one should ever do unless it is clear that you are wrong. Obama was not wrong.
 

Diablos

Member
reilo: So the party's fucked either way? :p

I wish the Hillary people just said "we want it all" -- because that's exactly what they want.

Obama could have given Hillary all of his delegates from Florida and uncommitted votes from Michigan and the Clintons would still find something wrong. They are totally fucking the party over and I fear it's too late for anything else to happen to remedy the situation.
 

Chichikov

Member
Diablos said:
This is so fucked up, guys.

Even if it doesn't go to the convention, this day seems to have just poured even more salt on the wound. Hillary supporters were PISSED OFF.

This could mark the beginning of the party seriously starting to slip. If it doesn't go to Denver, but, say, the end of June, that gives the party, what? Almost two months for "healing" while McCain has basically had the whole year so far.

Also, the GOP was outside filming all the pissed off supporters. You could imagine how effective they will be in their commercials for the GE.
Hillary supporters may and may not be pissed off, but do not make assumption about the millions who voter for her from the asshats who were at the rules committee and how vocal they were.
 

AniHawk

Member
Amir0x said:
Obama's reason is basically "I can't deal with the media disassembling every comment someone from my church makes."

And this is a very real opening for criticism. If he CAN'T handle that without bailing out, there's reason to believe it extends to other aspects of his political future. I am genuinely disappointed with his reaction here, as bowing to the media is one of the last things one should ever do unless it is clear that you are wrong. Obama was not wrong.

I wouldn't believe he'd do it for himself, but for the people who speak there. One person's 40 years of dedicated service has already been tainted, and another one's might be too.
 

Judderman

drawer by drawer
Amir0x said:
Obama's reason is basically "I can't deal with the media disassembling every comment someone from my church makes."

That isn't his only reason, reporters are harassing members and just painting the church with a broad brush, he's hoping with his resignation that it can go back to being "normal".
 
typhonsentra said:
I'm glad he's acknowledging it's because of the political climate and not throwing the church under the bus.

harSon said:
It would be selfish for him to stay. The church is being unfairly characterized by the media and threatened to boot.

Lemonz said:
Obama says news organizations are harassing church members.

I'm glad that I listened to his speech and got it from him. This does make sense and I can respect it.
 

harSon

Banned
Amir0x said:
Obama's reason is basically "I can't deal with the media disassembling every comment someone from my church makes."

And this is a very real opening for criticism. If he CAN'T handle that without bailing out, there's reason to believe it extends to other aspects of his political future. I am genuinely disappointed with his reaction here, as bowing to the media is one of the last things one should ever do unless it is clear that you are wrong. Obama was not wrong.

He's not the only member of the church Amir0x. Him being present in Church throws it into the lime light leaving it open to scrutiny and thus hindering the member's ability to pray and worship. Is his reason partly political? Obviously. But it's not the only reason.
 

grandjedi6

Master of the Google Search
Diablos said:
reilo: So the party's fucked either way? :p

I wish the Hillary people just said "we want it all" -- because that's exactly what they want.

Obama could have given Hillary all of his delegates from Florida and uncommitted votes from Michigan and the Clintons would still find something wrong. They are totally fucking the party over and I fear it's too late for anything else to happen to remedy the situation.

The party will be fine. Once Hillary drops out the angry minority will quite down and the party will "unify", whether it wants to or not
 

Diablos

Member
Chichikov said:
Hillary supporters may and may not be pissed off, but do not make assumption about the millions who voter for her from the asshats who were at the rules committee and how vocal they were.
True. But the fact remains, there's a good possibility this could go until the end of June, or to the convention at the latest. Which is just bad.

One thing is for certain: Dean, Pelosi, and Reid had better be SERIOUS in making supers come out of the shadows by the middle of next week. No more fucking around.
 

Amir0x

Banned
sp0rsk said:
Could someone give me a recap?

Sorry.

Sure...

The committee agreed on a compromise offered by the Michigan Democratic Party that would split the difference, allowing Clinton to take 69 delegates and Obama 59. Each delegate would get half a vote at the convention in Denver this summer, according to the deal.

The deal passed 19-8. Thirteen members of the committee supported Clinton, so she wasn't even able to keep her supporters together.

The committee also unanimously agreed to seat the Florida delegation based on the outcome of the January primary, with 105 pledged delegates for Clinton and 67 for Obama, but with each delegate getting half a vote as a penalty.

Florida... 105/67... half vote.
Michigan 69/59... half vote.
Obama resigns from Trinity Church
Ickes threatens taking Michigan to the Credentials Committee, says he was "authorized by Clinton"
 

TDG

Banned
reilo said:
Erm, if the results had gone the way that Hillary wanted, it would have torn the party apart even further.
It was a lose-lose either way. Hillary has simply been too divisive in this campaign, and has torn the party apart, and I don't think I'll be able to forgive her for that. the fact that she has turned a lot of her supporters into radicals who are pledging to vote for McCain over Obama is disgraceful.

I keep saying that I really want her to do everything she can to convince her supporters to unite for Obama, but in reality I don't expect that she will. SHe'll mention it during her concession speech, and that'll be it.
 

Zapages

Member
Does Obama still have the lead in the total delegates?

CNN is saying that Clinton has the lead by 10 delegates now? Is it true??

Either way its really messed up that they are counting Michigan and Florida!
 

Amir0x

Banned
Zapages said:
Does Obama still have the lead in the total delegates?

CNN is saying that Clinton has the lead by 10 delegates now? Is it true??

Either way its really messed up that they are counting Michigan and Florida!

HAHAHAH, Clinton is down by like 175 or some shit (too lazy to figure it out with the new numbers)
 

Uncooked

Banned
Amir0x said:
Obama's reason is basically "I can't deal with the media disassembling every comment someone from my church makes."

And this is a very real opening for criticism. If he CAN'T handle that without bailing out, there's reason to believe it extends to other aspects of his political future. I am genuinely disappointed with his reaction here, as bowing to the media is one of the last things one should ever do unless it is clear that you are wrong. Obama was not wrong.

Obama leaving his church will help the Republicans paint Obama as no longer being religious and not having the same concerns as other Christians, he should have just stayed.
 

Keylime

ÏÎ¯Î»Ï á¼Î¾ÎµÏÎγλοÏÏον καί ÏεÏδολÏγον οá½Îº εἰÏÏν
Zapages said:
Does Obama still have the lead in the total delegates?

CNN is saying that Clinton has the lead by 10 delegates now? Is it true??

Either way its really messed up that they are counting Michigan and Florida!
Uh...no
 

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
the disgruntled gamer said:
It was a lose-lose either way. Hillary has simply been too divisive in this campaign, and has torn the party apart, and I don't think I'll be able to forgive her for that. the fact that she has turned a lot of her supporters into radicals who are pledging to vote for McCain over Obama is disgraceful.

I keep saying that I really want her to do everything she can to convince her supporters to unite for Obama, but in reality I don't expect that she will. SHe'll mention it during her concession speech, and that'll be it.

IF that is how she plays it, then her speech will seal the rest of her political career.
 
Amir0x said:
Obama's reason is basically "I can't deal with the media disassembling every comment someone from my church makes."

And this is a very real opening for criticism. If he CAN'T handle that without bailing out, there's reason to believe it extends to other aspects of his political future. I am genuinely disappointed with his reaction here, as bowing to the media is one of the last things one should ever do unless it is clear that you are wrong. Obama was not wrong.

I don't take it as that at all. I take it as him saying "I don't think it's fair to subject my church or it's congregation to the scrutiny that I go through in a race." Which is fair, and I think it's valid.

Does Obama still have the lead in the total delegates?

CNN is saying that Clinton has the lead by 10 delegates now? Is it true??

Either way its really messed up that they are counting Michigan and Florida!
You must've misheard. Obama leads by nearly 200 delegates.
 

Amir0x

Banned
Uncooked said:
Obama leaving his church will help the Republicans paint Obama as no longer being religious and not having the same concerns as other Christians, he should have just stayed.

He can adopt a new church quickly. I think what it paints about Obama's ability to withstand controversy that matters here. He should not buckle. It disenfranchises African Americans who rightfully don't comprehend why the media has deconstructed the fire and brimstone rants of a reverend, since it is a common thing in these communities. And it can damage his image as one disaffected by the prevailing political winds, another key point.
 
Zapages said:
Does Obama still have the lead in the total delegates?

CNN is saying that Clinton has the lead by 10 delegates now? Is it true??

Either way its really messed up that they are counting Michigan and Florida!

She has the lead by 10 delegates in the number of ones that were divided up today at the conference. Obama is still way in the lead in total delegates.
 

AmishNazi

Banned
Mercury Fred said:
Oh, give me a break. Are you saying people new to politics are so fragile that they can't take criticism? And also, see above about being the bigger person and actually reaching out. You might want to apply some of the ideas that Obama is espousing to your own politics.

I'm not the one bashing the supporters. I just merely stated that your condescending remarks against their enthusiasm is not a good idea. I was just stating why some of Obama's supporters might be a little fanatical / rabid. Personally I don't think this is a bad thing. We've needed people besides elitists, religious, elderly, and scared people voting for a long time now.
 

Goreomedy

Console Market Analyst
WHOAguitarninja said:
I don't take it as that at all. I take it as him saying "I don't think it's fair to subject my church or it's congregation to the scrutiny that I go through in a race." Which is fair, and I think it's valid.

This is certainly the attitude coming out of the Q and A. A terrific Q and A, might I add, great questions being asked.
 

TDG

Banned
BTW, this thread has been fun (and the primaries haven't even occured). Archive worthy, I believe. (Ami?)

Zapages said:
Does Obama still have the lead in the total delegates?

CNN is saying that Clinton has the lead by 10 delegates now? Is it true??

Either way its really messed up that they are counting Michigan and Florida!
Obama is far ahead. Clinton gained 10 more delegates today than he did.

Demconwatch puts it at 2053-1876.5 for Obama.
 

Chichikov

Member
Diablos said:
True. But the fact remains, there's a good possibility this could go until the end of June, or to the convention at the latest. Which is just bad.

One thing is for certain: Dean, Pelosi, and Reid had better be SERIOUS in making supers come out of the shadows by the middle of next week. No more fucking around.
I think the main problem with this scenario is not how bitter Clinton supporters are or how fractured the party is going to be (I think it's overstated) but that in the mean time McCain gets a free pass, and that a lot of money that could've been used to established a narrative for the general election is wasted on forgone conclusion of a primary.
 
He picked a good day to announce this. Nobody looks at the news on Saturdays and the big weekend story will be the RBC decisions and Puerto Rico results.
 
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/05/31/1091448.aspx
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Per multiple sources inside the closed Rules and Bylaws Committee lunch, Obama actually had the votes to get a 50-50 delegate split out of Michigan -- but by just a vote or two.

However, it was decided to go with the 69-59 split to win a larger majority. That measure passed 19-8.

*** UPDATE *** Also, according to those with knowledge of the Michigan agreement, it is fair to claim Clinton the winner of Michigan. But they caution against counting her popular vote in the state.

this. this this this. he could've done what he wanted, and he would've won the vote. however, he decided to go with the compromise solution as a way to meet them halfway. and still ickes flips his shit. ickes wanted 0 compromise whatsoever, obama actually went halfway. he could've won and pointed to the ruling as 'well, the RBC voted, and said michigan never happened, period' instead, he gave some. not all, he did not give them everything, but he gave some and still they shit bricks.
 

reilo

learning some important life lessons from magical Negroes
Amir0x said:
Sorry.

Sure...



Florida... 105/67... half vote.
Michigan 69/59... half vote.
Obama resigns from Trinity Church
Ickes threatens taking Michigan to the Credentials Committee, says he was "authorized by Clinton"

Michigan isn't half. It's full seated with a 55/45% split in delegates.
 
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