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[The Chosen One]

Managed to stay off the wall of shame again.
Having a job again helps curtail posting

I honestly don't know how you guys do it. Some of you posted last month what would take me over a year to post the same volume.

Do you guys work at all? Have kids? A wife/girlfriend/mistress? I have all of those and I barely have time to get in just a couple of posts a day.

 

[Marvie_3]

We should cut out the EC nonsense and cut to the chase: one state, one vote.

No.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Which is more accurate, the NowCast or the Nov.6th?

Nowcast is if the election were today.

Forecast assumes certain things that may tighten or expand a candidate's lead by election day.

As we get closer they start lining up - they're already more or less the same.

The house is not representative of the states. Its the people's house.

House representation is still divvied up along state lines. Wyoming's at large district is smaller than California's districts.

So in theory the president is supposed to represent every citizen of America but theoretically they could win without ever paying attention to certain states if they knew they could win by only having the majority of said states for for him/her.

Could it be assumed that these states would receive preferential treatment because of that fact?

What you're saying is something that's already happening under the electoral college. There is no reason for Obama to visit Wyoming or Utah.

It is literally impossible for one state (or several) to cobble together a winning majority of voters for a candidate. California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia's populations make up more than half of the US population. Yet while several of those states are safe for one side or the other, it generally isn't lopsided.

Hell, take that list and add North Carolina and New Jersey. If a candidate won just those 11 states with 50.1% of the vote, he would be elected president, with fuck-all for the rest of the country.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Nixon did a great 50 state tour, he even hauled his ass to Alaska. He did lose tho to some Catholic fella.

Voter fraud

 

[el retorno]

House representation is still divvied up along state lines. Wyoming's at large district is smaller than California's districts.

Thats because we as a nation are a federal system.

 

[EatinOlives]

If they were to do a fifty-state tour, I'd also love to hear all of the hokey, fake accent adjustments the candidates could contort their vocal cords into having.

Also:

http://www.inquisitr.com/372576/tru...t-is-not-being-taken-too-seriously-by-anyone/

I love this.

"Nobody gives a fuck. Here's an unflattering picture of the fuck we don't give a fuck about."

 

[rodvik]

We should cut out the EC nonsense and cut to the chase: one state, one vote.

One person, per state, one vote.

The debates can be literally all the voters being talked to by the candidates. Each candidate can spend a full day or more trying to persuade each voter.

I call dibs on the California one. Obama I expect you and Michelle round with the wine & dessert this weekend to persuade me.

Mitt, its gonna have to be a cash bid from you I am afraid.

 

[Gotchaye]

As I said, every state should agree to give out their votes via proportion of vote.

I wouldn't have a big problem with this if the states weren't apparently quite willing to engage in some pretty shady tactics to make sure their guys win. The only reason we don't have Ohio-type voter suppression in Oklahoma is that nobody's worried about the Democrats winning Oklahoma. But the legislature and the courts there would be a lot friendlier to voter suppression, and they'd have an incentive to do it if it meant an extra two EVs. It seems to me that that system triggers a race to the bottom where what are now uncompetitive states become really shitty to vote in and don't even split their EVs very much.

While the disadvantage of NPV is that it's never going to happen, the advantage of it is that it gives states a lot of reason to encourage as many people as possible to vote.

 

[kingkitty]

lets just combine the 50 states into an omega state, winner gets 4 delegates. To be president you need 5 delegates.

That seems to give an awful lot of power to DC.

Perfectly fair!

 

[Gotchaye]

lets just combine the 50 states into an omega state, winner gets 4 delegates. To be president you need 5 delegates.

That seems to give an awful lot of power to DC.

 

[Trurl]

So in theory the president is supposed to represent every citizen of America but theoretically they could win without ever paying attention to certain states if they knew they could win by only having the majority of other states vote for him/her.

Hmm, you raise an interesting point. By the PotUS being elected by focusing on either "red" or "blue" areas, American policy could well become more turbulent as the PotUS switches from party to party. I don't know how I feel about that and will have to think it over.

At the very least I like Spec's idea of chopping off 2 electoral votes from every state.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Thats because we as a nation are a federal system.

You're right but my broader point is that we already have the Senate as a way of representing the smaller states. It isn't like the president can just sign laws that shit all over the small states while giving handjobs to the big ones, Wyoming has every bit of say in the lawmaking as California does.

And even then we see the system being held hostage by small state senators all the time. Cornhusker kickback anyone?

I guess I'm starting to see the side of retaining the EC more but I still think it's dumb.

 

[AlteredBeast]

Hmm, you raise an interesting point. By the PotUS being elected by focusing on either "red" or "blue" areas, American policy could well become more turbulent as the PotUS switches from party to party. I don't know how I feel about that and will have to think it over.

At the very least I like Spec's idea of chopping off 2 electoral votes from every state.

As always, Nebraska does it best.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Part of the problem is that the major cities are going to become the main campaign grounds. I mean shoot, if you get out the vote in our top 10 most populous cities how close does that get you to 51%? From there you win some suburbs and you're probably done. Apparently over 3/4 of the countries live in the cities or suburbs, no one is ever going to even think about rural towns ever again if we go to the popular vote. They won't need too.

Sounds great.

 

[Frank the Great]

we are never going to get proportional electoral college voting. each state would have to get together and agree to that . . . in red states, republicans will vehemently oppose it, and in blue states democrats would oppose it. why would they dilute their own votes willingly?

basically, to get it passed you would need to have republican leadership in all the blue states and democratic leadership in all the red states . . . at the same time. that's the only way the state governments would actually want to dilute their own votes.

 

[Trurl]

we are never going to get proportional electoral college voting. each state would have to get together and agree to that . . . in red states, republicans will vehemently oppose it, and in blue states democrats would oppose it. why would they dilute their own votes willingly?

basically, to get it passed you would need to have republican leadership in all the blue states and democratic leadership in all the red states . . . at the same time. that's the only way the state governments would actually want to dilute their own votes.

Maybe start it off with pairings. Montana and Delaware both have 3 EVs. Convince people in those states to take the jump together and then maybe the idea will spread from there.

I mean, that's extremely unlikely but it's the only solution I can think of.

 

[Gotchaye]

we are never going to get proportional electoral college voting. each state would have to get together and agree to that . . . in red states, republicans will vehemently oppose it, and in blue states democrats would oppose it. why would they dilute their own votes willingly?

basically, to get it passed you would need to have republican leadership in all the blue states and democratic leadership in all the red states . . . at the same time. that's the only way the state governments would actually want to dilute their own votes.

Actually, presumably you could get it done in the same way that the NPV people are trying to get that done. Get 270 EVs' worth of states to pass a law assigning their EVs to the candidate who would win if all states assigned their EVs in this proportional manner if 270 EVs' worth of states pass the law. They don't have to unilaterally disarm.

 

[Forever]

There is a proposed plan where a group of big states with a combined 270 electoral votes could change their systems to award their votes to the popular vote winner.

That would de facto change it to a popular vote contest.

 

[RiccochetJ]

It is literally impossible for one state (or several) to cobble together a winning majority of voters for a candidate. California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Georgia's populations make up more than half of the US population. Yet while several of those states are safe for one side or the other, it generally isn't lopsided.

Hell, take that list and add North Carolina and New Jersey. If a candidate won just those 11 states with 50.1% of the vote, he would be elected president, with fuck-all for the rest of the country.

You should ask Gaffers from Canada how they feel when Quebec and Ontario can win a federal election when they join together. Ask them where the federal money goes and who it benefits.

 

[B-Dubs]

There is a proposed plan where a group of big states with a combined 270 electoral votes could change their systems to award their votes to the popular vote winner.

That would de facto change it to a popular vote contest.

Yea, that's been going on for a while and it's been a slow moving thing. I heard Cali was considering it at one point.

 

[Puddles]

Yea, that's been going on for a while and it's been a slow moving thing. I heard Cali was considering it at one point.

I only support California doing it if Texas and a few other red states do it at the exact same time.

 

[Aaron Strife]

You should ask Gaffers from Canada how they feel when Quebec and Ontario can win a federal election when they join together. Ask them where the federal money goes and who it benefits.

Isn't their system convoluted as fuck though?

I guess I could see how it would turn into a regional, north vs. south candidates type of deal.

 

[Gotchaye]

Yea, that's been going on for a while and it's been a slow moving thing. I heard Cali was considering it at one point.

Passed it last year. http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

New York's likely to join in at some point. It's exclusively blue states so far, though.

I only support California doing it if Texas and a few other red states do it at the exact same time.

Like I said in my last post, it's set up so that it does absolutely nothing unless 270 EVs' worth of states have passed an identical bill.

 

[Trurl]

Passed it last year. http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

New York's likely to join in at some point. It's exclusively blue states so far, though.



Like I said in my last post, it's set up so that it does absolutely nothing unless 270 EVs' worth of states have passed an identical bill.

So, basically if Obama wins the EC while losing the popular vote, red states will jump on this thing asap?

 

[RiccochetJ]

Isn't their system convoluted as fuck though?

I guess I could see how it would turn into a regional, north vs. south candidates type of deal.

East vs West.

Parliament could be compared to congress down here. Speaker is the Prime Minister.

 

[Gotchaye]

So, basically if Obama wins the EC while losing the popular vote, red states will jump on this thing asap?

We could hope. But I stand by what I said earlier today: the Democrats have such an enormous advantage in an actual popular vote contest (as opposed to comparing popular votes when they don't actually matter) where states run their own elections that the Republican establishment will fight tooth and nail to stop it from happening.

 

[eBay Huckster]

You should ask Gaffers from Canada how they feel when Quebec and Ontario can win a federal election when they join together. Ask them where the federal money goes and who it benefits.

my favorite thing about this is how it spawned the tories' "reform" wing turning into republicans

 

[B-Dubs]

Sounds great.

Maybe but this is also why it will be fought against tooth and nail.

 

[Diablos]

Hey guys, anything to panic about?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Hey guys, anything to panic about?

Bad news for Obama.

 

[HyperionX]

Passed it last year. http://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

New York's likely to join in at some point. It's exclusively blue states so far, though.



Like I said in my last post, it's set up so that it does absolutely nothing unless 270 EVs' worth of states have passed an identical bill.

They should really make this a constitution amendment. Doing it like that feels like a cheat on some level.

 

[AniHawk]

Hey guys, anything to panic about?

intrade at 55%
fivethirtyeight dropped 2% overnight
romney campaign confident about nevada

 

[eBay Huckster]

Hey guys, anything to panic about?

there's only everything

 

[Diablos]

intrade at 55%
fivethirtyeight dropped 2% overnight
romney campaign confident about nevada

Bullshit.

 

[Black Mamba]

Hey guys, anything to panic about?

RAND dropped to Romney +3 so it's pretty close to panic time.

 

[RiccochetJ]

my favorite thing about this is how it spawned the tories' "reform" wing turning into republicans

I remember Stockwell Day winning the election and then he mentioned the bible (Edit: from a political standpoint leading up to the election). Political suicide.

 

[AniHawk]

Bullshit.

these are all actually true things.

www.intrade.com
www.fivethirtyeight.com
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=43538677&postcount=508

 

[PantherLotus]

wtf is this
seriously gaf
i'm like 20 pages back in the last thread
reading PD trolls about the debate
and this shit's like 15 pages deep
obama ain't losing
you're all watching ohio
you should be watching florida and virginia
landslide ahoy

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

Hey guys, anything to panic about?

Romney would win the election 1/3 times if held today

i.e. slightly worse than a coin flip

So yes, time to panic

 

[Diablos]

I can't tell who is being serious and who is legit freaking out.

re: intrade, it was at 52 not too long ago, now it's at 55. Seems like people are having too much fun atm.

re: 538, it has Bams down in CO but slightly leading in VA. I'd take that swap.

 

[Aaron Strife]

wtf is this
seriously gaf
i'm like 20 pages back in the last thread
reading PD trolls about the debate
and this shit's like 15 pages deep
obama ain't losing
you're all watching ohio
you should be watching florida and virginia
landslide ahoy

High five.

RAND dropped to Romney +3 so it's pretty close to panic time.

You son of a bitch. You made me look.

I can't tell who is being serious and who is legit freaking out.

re: intrade, it was at 52 not too long ago, now it's at 55. Seems like people are having too much fun atm.

re: 538, it has Bams down in CO but slightly leading in VA. I'd take that swap.

The intrade thing was some guy rigging it for Romney.

 

[Troll]

wtf is this
seriously gaf
i'm like 20 pages back in the last thread
reading PD trolls about the debate
and this shit's like 15 pages deep
obama ain't losing
you're all watching ohio
you should be watching florida and virginia
landslide ahoy

Post again, I want to see.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I know it was posted already but after reading this
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/

I'm...surprisingly relieved. It seems Romney is not really surging, based on state polls. I hope my fellow Michigan brother Cheebs reads this

 

[eBay Huckster]

I remember Stockwell Day winning the election and then he mentioned the bible. Political suicide.

and then march 2002 came along and everything got worse.

 

[Aaron Strife]

I know it was posted already but after reading this
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/23/ro-mentum/

I'm...surprisingly relieved. It seems Romney is not really surging, based on state polls. I hope my fellow Michigan brother Cheebs reads this

Relief? Don't you want Obummer to lose

 

[Black Mamba]

wtf is this
seriously gaf
i'm like 20 pages back in the last thread
reading PD trolls about the debate
and this shit's like 15 pages deep
obama ain't losing
you're all watching ohio
you should be watching florida and virginia
landslide ahoy

God, I'd love if Florida and Va were called early for Obama.

Fox News and the right internet world would be so awesome.

The combo of "OMG IT'S OVER" at the beginning of the night and the "WE CAN STILL WIN OHIO, PA, MICHIGAN" of the holdovers would be glorious.

Also watching Hannity after Fla and Va are called would be something amazing. Much better than waiting on Colorado or Nevada. If Fla and Va are called, Hannity would have 1-2 hours of sitting there reporting with this glum look on his face knowing Romney lost but having to report the whole night through, regardless. And knowing it's a blowout. What I'd give to see this...

 

[Trurl]

They should really make this a constitution amendment. Doing it like that feels like a cheat on some level.

Could states back out of it strategically? Say, if in September it looks like the Republican has more to gain from the EC than the popular vote, could Texas suddenly call the whole thing off? If so, I don't see it actually working.

 

[RiccochetJ]

and then march 2002 came along and everything got worse.

Trudeau won again?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Relief? Don't you want Obummer to lose

I don't want him to lose. If anything I'd like him to apologize to Hillary Clinton, and for her to apologize to him. Maybe they've done it already, who knows. Perhaps Trump will bring them closer together tomorrow

 

[apana]

Whether Mitt Romney wins or loses, you have to give him credit for one thing, he at least got his revenge on NeoGAF. He can be the President of Meltdowns.