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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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eBay Huckster
Member
day didn't win the alliance leadership election in '02, so the right merged and the past eight years happened
I'm losing my shit here. You have a gift.
I think there's a different dynamic here though than in say 2004, and even in 2008 it wasn't as profound. Everyone is increasingly addicted to real-time polling and that in and of itself seems to have a psychological impact if nothing else. I.e. 538 drops to 68%. But I figured it would move down a bit. This is a 2, 3 point race at best.
I dunno, like I said before I'm semi-prepared to deal with the fact that Bams might lose. I don't want to see it happen, and I'm trying to pull myself away from the data so I don't go nuts. If he can just carry Ohio and hold to a small part of the firewall he's getting re-elected.
eBay Huckster
Member
(i am thoroughly enjoying canadian poligaf leaking into this thread for the past page or so fyi)
Aaron Strife
Banned
There's the PD I know and love
I know there's a certain faction of Clinton supporters who want Obama to lose because they think Romney will be an easier mark in 2016. I'm glad you're not one of 'em
My understanding is that the whole thing is legally enforceable. It's essentially a contract between the states. I guess there's an increased danger of faithless electors, but the courts should be able to restrict what the state governments can do here.
http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2012/10/23/why-pollsters-missed-the-latino-vote-2012-edition/
More than anything else, this is screwing up the polls. Probably even more so that the lack of cell phone polling.
If you adjust for correct voting values for minorities, you'd get something like this:
More than anything else, this is screwing up the polls. Probably even more so that the lack of cell phone polling.
Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote 2012 edition
by Matt A. Barreto, Latino Decisions on 10/23/2012
In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute titled Why Pollsters Missed the Latino Vote Again! in which they argued that polls across California failed to accurately account for Latino voters in their samples, and that pre-election polls statewide were fraught with errors as a result. Pachon and de la Garza argued that mainstream pollsters failed to account for Latinos for three primary reasons: 1) their sample sizes of Latinos were far too small; 2) their Latinos samples were not representative of the Latino population within the state; and 3) they were not interviewing Latinos in Spanish at the correct proportions. THIS WAS 14 YEARS AGO (yes I am screaming).
In 2010 Gary Segura and I wrote that not much had changed and polls continued to mis-represent the Latino vote. It is now well-known that polls in Nevada had small, unrepresentative and biased samples of Latinos, leading them to entirely miss Harry Reids 5-point lead over Sharron Angle. Two weeks ago, Nate Silver wrote at 538 that some polls seem to be continuing the same mistakes and under-counting and mis-counting Latino voters, which he had originally picked up, and wrote about the day after the 2010 midterms. Around the same time some new polls started appearing in states like Nevada and Florida with bizarre data for Latino voters Obama only had an 8 point lead among Nevada Latinos, and Romney was actually ahead among Latinos in Florida. Really?
No.
And now the worst offenders might be the newest batch of national polls are attempting to estimate the national Obama-Romney horse race numbers. Monday October 22, Monmouth University released a poll in which Romney leads Obama 48% to 45%. Among Latinos, they report Obama leads by just 6 points 48% to 42%. These numbers are such extreme outliers that even Romney campaign surrogates would have a hard time believing them. While Monmouth is the most recent, there have been many national polls with equally faulty numbers among Latinos.
Keep that 48 to 42 number in your head and lets compare across a variety of recent polls of Latino voters. As a matter of self-interest, well start with four recent impreMedia-Latino Decisions tracking polls in October. The last four polls released by IM/LD have found the Latino vote nationally at 71-20; 67-23; 72-20; 73-21. Dont like those? NBC/Telemundo have released two polls in October of Latinos, putting the race at 70-25, and 70-20 just before that. And then there was the Pew Hispanic Center poll 10 days ago which had Obama 69-21 over Romney, and just before that CNN did a poll of Latinos putting the national vote at 70-25. Okay thats eight national polls of Latino voters in the month of October and the average across all eight is 70.3% for Obama to 21.9% for Romney.
If you adjust for correct voting values for minorities, you'd get something like this:
Bill, you shouldn't have said it like that.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57536565/lauding-obama-clinton-cites-impatient-americans/
Those people are stupid and need only examine Bill Clinton's behavior to understand why.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Harper's only been in since 06
That may seriously bring up a SCOTUS decision if a state tried to back out at the last moment.
These thoughts.. these fantasies.. this is like bedtime porn for me.
Forget nifty erotic stories - tell me more about Hannity trying not to break-down on live television. And provide lots of detail. I wanna hear about Hannity's big hot load
of tears
eBay Huckster
Member
he's been the alliance --> conservative leader since '02 though
He's been using that exact phrase for weeks. I guess someone decided to get outraged about it now...
Still feeling damn good.
- The praise that the PBS post-debate crew gave for Obama's ground game ops in Ohio (paraphrasing Halperin and friends here: "amazing. Unlike anything I've seen in all my years"),
- the consistency of Ohio's polling numbers
- the very-encouraging early voting numbers that are coming in from Ohio
- the arrival of more data from unique sources giving more weight to the theory that national numbers are not accurately reflecting the state of the race (i.e., The Southern Skewering Theory)
- the arithmetic shown at 538 and Princeton
- the solidifying of Nevada as The Other State with Ohio That Gets Us Over 270
I'm ready for a really fun night.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
He took over the Prime Minister spot?
Black Mamba
Member
*Hannity walks in with a big grin on his face, excited for the day*
1 hour later:
Britt Hume: We're ready to make our first swing state call and it's a big one. Florida has been called for President Barak Obama
Hannity: Wait, really? You sure.
Hume: Yes. It has also been called by other networks for the President. This is a big blow to Governor Romney's campaign. He will now need to make up ground with other swing states.
Hannity: I can't believe it. And called this early?
*scrunches face*
We'll just have to see how the rest goes.
30 mins pass
Hume: We're ready to make another call. This one is Virginia and much like Florida, it too we are projecting to go to President Obama
*Hannity with a near emotionless stare*
Hume: Well, let's go to our panel.
*Hannity's phone rings in background telling him of poor internals for Ohio from his buddies and the election is over*
Hume: Sean, it looks like the President will win another term with a lot of electoral votes.
Hannity: You know, I can't believe it. I mean, what does this man have to do til people realize he's destroying America? What will it take? DO I NEED TO PUT MY UNDERWEAR ON MY HEAD AND SCREAM AT YOU PEOPLE BECAUSE I WILL. WHAT IS WRONG WITH YOU? HE'S A KENYAN COMMUNIST FOR CHRIST'S SAKE
*Hannity sits back down as Laura Ingraham calms him down*
Hume: Let's talk to some of our analysts. Welcome Michelle.
Malkin: Americans R So DUM. GAWD
Hume: Okay, and on to Karl Rove
*sounds of a shotgun being cocked in the background*
Hume: Looks like there's technical difficulties getting Rove here. Let's bring in Dick
Morris: I don't understand. All my internal polling I conducted in the field this week said Obama was going to lose big. There must have been a stunning reversal in the last two days. People must have felt ashamed to not vote for a black person.
*sounds of a crash. A man appears from nowhere comes up behind Hannity. Proceeds to dance Gangham Style on him*
*Hannity turns back*
Hannity: Fuck you Alan.
Colmes: mwahahahahahahaha How does my ass taste, bitch?
*end transmission*
too much?
what's this I hear about Rombot being confident about NV now? What's going on in IA? CO?
I can't deal with obsessing over the numbers right now so I will leave it to you poligaffers.
I think it's safe to say that if Obama loses OH we know it's gonna be a bad night. If he wins there's tons of hope left (no pun intended)
eBay Huckster
Member
i feel if the sponsorship scandal had broken a couple months earlier he very well could've (in 2004)
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
Didn't you tell me you were independent?
It would make financial sense for Texas to join. As a high-population state that's always overlooked under the current system, because they're not a swing state, this would give them the opportunity to get some of that sweet, sweet Presidential advertising money.
:lol what are you thinking now?
No, not at all. I just woke-up HylianGreg, laughing. If anyone needs to eat Colmes' ass, it's that fat-headed Irish prick.
Just got another idea for after the election: I'd love to hear an "AutoTune the News"-style remix song of various Fox News personalities calling the different states for Obama on Election Night. Hannity could have his own chorus. I think I'd have to break-down and get a phone that can have ringtones if this ever were to be made.
eBay Huckster
Member
you're going to counter-troll intrade aren't you
speculawyer
Member
Well. . . take off, eh.
iamshadowlark
Banned
Apologize for what exactly?
Black Mamba
Member
Yeah, I am. I really really hate the far right of the GOP right now, though.
I hold the same contempt for Keith Olberman if it makes you feel better.
To add to the Ohio story: I'm convinced Obama's lead is under reported for another reason:
Obama holds a larger lead in polls that survey cell phones.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate...you-need-know-about-obamas-lead-in-ohio-polls
(Posted over the weekend, but bears reiterating.)
I don't like the wording because with sufficient countercyclical measures we could be further along. We have every right to be impatient. It's just that while the Obama's efforts have been too modest, the GOP's efforts have been counterproductive. That doesn't mean that Dems need to turn into Chauncey Gardner while defending the the President.
Chris Hayes made a similar mistake on Bill Maher a month or so ago, except he made it more obnoxiously and stupidly. The left in this country sucks.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
But I got the impression he's been running things since 2002... Or was he behind the scenes then?
Aaron Strife
Banned
it's bluster just like with "we're going to PA!"
Both campaigns have admitted that Nevada is probably leaning Obama at this point. Same for North Carolina leaning to Romney, although the Obama camp has made noise today about still fighting for the state. NBC felt comfortable moving these two states into their respectice candidates' "leaning category" two days ago.
IA and CO are still more muddled. No new numbers today, I don't think..
el retorno
Member
Amazing.
eBay Huckster
Member
he was the prime minister canada deserved, but not the one it needed then
titiklabingapat
Member
I don't see a problem with that, to be honest. I think part of the reason why the USA is more conservative than most industrialized countries is the over-representation of rural communities in the country.
Lol I'm just gonna make some money. ~55% to win the election? Are you kidding me? I might put some money on Ohio just for kicks. Unfortunately my bank charges $55 for international wire transfers (yuck) but the profit margin will make up for it.
People who were betting on Romney on Intrade are giddy right now. They're making bank off the people driving Romney's stock up.
It also makes the election day crowds smaller, so people don't have to wait as long, or risk getting turned away late in the day. Important in states where the GOP has reduced polling stations in urban areas.
Edit: vv and polling hours as well, thanks.
speculawyer
Member
Damn I may need to get Fox just so I can enjoy the Hannity pain.
NihonTiger90
Member
Bad news for Obama.
Dick Morris still thinks Romney will win by at least 4 points, with 300 ev and be able snatch Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin from Obama lol.
http://youtu.be/OFNLVC18M-Q
I'm looking forward to his analysis come the night of Nov 6th.
http://youtu.be/OFNLVC18M-Q
I'm looking forward to his analysis come the night of Nov 6th.
RiccochetJ
Gold Member
What if Romney wins?
Obama should make a play at Virginia if he thinks he has a shot (or if he thinks Ohio is at risk of going down). VA + NV + IA/NH is 272/270. Although it's probably a better idea for him just to hold the states he already has significant leads in which would be 281 EVs.
Is there a way to manipulate the early votes? Maybe have some of them not count or throw them away?
Aaron Strife
Banned
I would gladly watch Fox News if they had Colmes commentating on any of this.
I can't fucking stand him but I'd love to see him sitting there with a smug look on his face while everyone is screaming about socialism or whatever
You can be sure that Jon Husted will try.
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