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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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P

pigeon

Banned
apana said:
You guys have probably discussed this but it looks like Romney is up in Ohio by 2 points according to Rasmussen eventhough their national polls have tightened up. I want to see some more polls but it looks like this could be the start of new Romney momentum in Ohio. I think it will be very close in Ohio on election day, just about 50-50.
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213fc7c.gif
 
S

speculawyer

Member
I'm liking Sam Wang more than Nate these days. Defend the nerds!

Nerds under attack!
October 29th, 2012, 10:00am by Sam Wang
Paul Krugman is calling out National Review Online for their attempted takedown of Nate Silver for biased methods and somehow cooking the books. Krugman writes:
This is, of course, reminiscent of the attack on the Bureau of Labor Statistics — not to mention the attacks on climate science and much more. On the right, apparently, there is no such thing as an objective calculation. Everything must have a political motive.
​
Now more commentators on the right, including Jay Cost (The Weekly Standard) and Jennifer Rubin (Washington Post), are getting in on the act.
Click to expand...
http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/29/nerds-under-attack/
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
apana said:
You guys have probably discussed this but it looks like Romney is up in Ohio by 2 points according to Rasmussen eventhough their national polls have tightened up. I want to see some more polls but it looks like this could be the start of new Romney momentum in Ohio. I think it will be very close in Ohio on election day, just about 50-50.
Click to expand...

The discrepancy in OH between polls that call cell phone voters and polls that don't is well documented.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
apana said:
You guys have probably discussed this but it looks like Romney is up in Ohio by 2 points according to Rasmussen eventhough their national polls have tightened up. I want to see some more polls but it looks like this could be the start of new Romney momentum in Ohio. I think it will be very close in Ohio on election day, just about 50-50.
Click to expand...

image.php


Oh noez! OMG!
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
If anything this shows the power of the presidency, and how helpless challengers are at times like this. It reminds me of the scene in The Candidate where Robert Redford is talking to the media on the scene of a natural disaster, enjoying the attention of the press. Then out of nowhere the governor (who Redford is running against) arrives on a helicopter and the press bolts directly to him, leaving Redford alone.
 
A

apana

Member
syllogism said:
Why does it look like that, pray tell
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Republicans seem very confident about their organization and get out the vote efforts in Ohio. This is the first time we have seen a Romney lead there. Like I said we do have to wait for more polls but it is possible that the race is tightening up there.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
apana said:
Republicans seem very confident about their organization and get out the vote efforts in Ohio. This is the first time we have seen a Romney lead there. Like I said we do have to wait for more polls but it is possible that the race is tightening up there.
Click to expand...
Rasmussen sucks.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
apana said:
Republicans seem very confident about their organization and get out the vote efforts in Ohio. This is the first time we have seen a Romney lead there. Like I said we do have to wait for more polls but it is possible that the race is tightening up there.
Click to expand...

I'd say it's more like a forgone conclusion at this point. I mean when one poll shows Romney up, it's time to pack it up for Obama.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
HylianTom said:
What'd he say? Or just the gist of it.. I'm stuck at work right now. :/

(Can hardly wait for my election vacation!)
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Bams was just asked what he thought of the election being affected (something like that) and he just gave the expected response that he frankly didn't care about it right now. All he was thinking about now was the families/first responders/taking care of this situation/etc. Mentioned that the election will will come and sort itself out next week, but he's completely focused on this now.

And getting Bill to sub in is pretty much a win anyway since he's usually a more convincing orator on the stump. Such a grand luxury since you'd never imagine Rombot asking GWB to talk on behalf of his campaign.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
In 2008, it took Democrats six days to erase the GOP's vote-by-mail advantage in Florida.

In 2012, it took two days.

By the time the sun rose Monday morning, nearly 2 million Floridians had already cast ballots, with Republicans and Democrats nearly dead even, according to official numbers posted on the state Division of Elections web site.

Here's the breakdown: 1,865,896 people in Florida had voted through Sunday.

Of that total, Democrats accounted for 784,444 votes, Republicans 774,304 and others (no-party and minor party voters) 307,148.

Democrats lead in early voting, 251,541 to 178,364 for Republicans.

Republicans lead in voting absentee or by mail, 595,940 to 532,903 for Democrats.
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A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
apana said:
Republicans seem very confident about their organization and get out the vote efforts in Ohio. This is the first time we have seen a Romney lead there. Like I said we do have to wait for more polls but it is possible that the race is tightening up there.
Click to expand...

No it isn't. If you check 538, various random Republican leaning pollsters have occasionally polled OH for Romney, but we don't care about individual pollsters. When we say Romney has never lead in OH, we're talking about polling aggregates.

Aaron Strife said:
O+6 among RVs

BLS says the jobs numbers will come out on Friday like scheduled.
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I don't think we're in for any surprises given the economic numbers last week.
 
N

NihonTiger90

Member
Loudninja said:
Misleading Romney Auto Ad Backfires With Media

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...to-ad-backfires-with-media.php?ref=fpnewsfeed
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The only people in Ohio this will work on are those completely disconnected from the news. I live in northwest Ohio and I can tell he's desperately trying to target the folks in Wood and Lucas counties with this who might be on the fence or worried about the job situation.

But we know that the Toledo North Jeep Assembly plant has been partially closed not because they're shipping jobs overseas, but because they're retooling the assembly lines for a new vehicle from Jeep to replace the Liberty, and they are moving a part of the assembly process to a new building and hiring a few hundred more people.

If anything, this is going to backfire with anyone around here who has any common sense.
 
C

Cubsfan23

Banned
I don't know why people put stock in florida polls. It's one of those states you have no idea who is going to win until the actual election
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
apana said:
Republicans seem very confident about their organization and get out the vote efforts in Ohio. This is the first time we have seen a Romney lead there. Like I said we do have to wait for more polls but it is possible that the race is tightening up there.
Click to expand...
Stop it.

1. The last Ras poll for 2008 had Obama and McCain tied in Ohio.
2. PPP had a poll yesterday that showed Obama up 51 - 47. Now Ras releases a poll and all of a sudden you see the race as tightening? How does that make any sense?
3. Look at the aggregates. Ohio is not a toss-up; it favors Obama. In fact, since June, Ohio has become more favorable to Obama.
4. You should expect one poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio.

...

Nate Silver on the impact of Sandy on the election.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
Dax01 said:
Stop it.

1. The last Ras poll for Ohio had Obama and McCain tied.
2. PPP had a poll yesterday that showed Obama up 51 - 47. Now Ras releases a poll and all of a sudden you see the race as tightening? How does that make any sense?
3. Look at the aggregates. Ohio is not a toss-up; it favors Obama. In fact, since June, Ohio has become more favorable to Obama.
4. You should expect one poll showing Romney ahead in Ohio.

...

Nate Silver on the impact of Sandy on the election.
Click to expand...

I don't see where apana is wrong. I mean it seems to me that apana, diablos, and cheebs are the only ones who are truly looking facing reality.
 
D

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
LOL at Morning Joe

paraphrasing:

Has a race been this close and unpredictable like this one? blah blah Momentum! They are saying this while all the graphics on the bottom show Obama up 4+ in most battleground states.
 
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