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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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H

Hawkian

The Cryptarch's Bane
florida people please please please please vote and punch people if they say they can't be bothered

My instincts are telling me it's going to be even closer than 60-40% by Friday. Nothing could shut the rest of the night down like a florida win.

I don't expect it (at all) but holy god if it wouldn't be amazing.

+7 votes from my immediate family as of last week.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Black Mamba said:
Even if this were true his numbers are still too stable. Look at how he got either tied or plus one four consecutive times. And it's similar in other states.

How is he so stable with moe of 4? It's nonsense. Even if you have a republican lean the variability in polling cannot change.

Even if you lean republican you should have some favorable dem outcomes randomly. All other republican leaning pollsters had shown this. Same with dem in favor of repubs.

Ras is consistently good for Romney and GOP senators. It's nonsense.
Click to expand...

Because he's using some polling methodology that doesn't account for bias, presumably, i.e. I don't call those young people will cell phones and/or have a "likely voters" model that favors conservatives. Outright manipulation of the poll to favor Romney sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
PPP's Halloween poll is cracking me up.

@ppppolls said:
From our Halloween poll- Democrats are more likely to say they wish they could still trick or treat than Republicans #moochers #justkidding
Democrats say they would be willing to spend the night in a haunted house, Republicans say they would not
68% of Republicans, 49% of Democrats think it's possible for people to be possessed by demons
Click to expand...

49% of Democrats! That is a huge exorcism rating crossover.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Angry Grimace said:
Because he's using some polling methodology that doesn't account for bias, presumably, i.e. I don't call those young people will cell phones and/or have a "likely voters" model that favors conservatives. Outright manipulation of the poll to favor Romney sounds like a conspiracy theory to me.
Click to expand...
A. Again the variability cannot change despite method.

B. it's been done before. Silver himself exposed a firm doing what I just said and they got sued.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Black Mamba said:
A. Again the variability cannot change despite method.

B. it's been done before. Silver himself exposed a firm doing what I just said and they got sued.
Click to expand...

I suppose I just don't understand the endgame in giving people false results.
 
S

syllogism

Member
I think the relative lack of crazy outliers in general is suspicious. Someone should take all polls released this decade to see if the actual variation matches predicted variation.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
Bill Clinton jumping in to do Obama's campaigning for him while Obama is busy being the President is a big plus for him. That and Obama is the only one of the two candidates who will get much news coverage this week, as the challenger during something like this has no sway. The nightly news is going to focus on Sandy all week. Like Silver said, this storm won't impact the outcome of the election by much (if at all).

Silver mentioned that it has a greater impact to impact Romney's poorer states that have fewer resources to respond to something like this, citing West Virginia as an example. Imagine turnout being so suppressed that Obama ends up winning here lol.


Also, Bill basically going full time for this campaign right now leads me to believe that there's no way that Hillary won't run in 2016.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
Angry Grimace said:
I suppose I just don't understand the endgame in giving people false results.
Click to expand...
Well daily kos sued also sued a polling firm for lying. It bappens

I don't know what ras is doing. I'm just saying their results are off statistically. Not because it favors the GOP but because its too stable. They show no mistakes.

Compare the. To PPP. Their numbers move. Same with everyone else. Sometimes in GOP favor.

I haven't plotted he data by ras so it's just me asking stuff. It looks too stable. Maybe I'm wrong and suffering from confirmation bias. It's why I asked for a ras poll being good for dens contrary to opinion.

Edit: on phone now so sorry for bad spelling
 
M

markatisu

Member
Tim-E said:
Silver mentioned that it has a greater impact to impact Romney's poorer states that have fewer resources to respond to something like this, citing West Virginia as an example. Imagine turnout being so suppressed that Obama ends up winning here lol.
Click to expand...

Oh I wish for this to happen just so we can forever use it against Diablos
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Molly Redden wrote an article specifically for Diablos:

tnr said:
If you’re one of the many folks in my Twitter feed who’s feeling a general unease because Hurricane Sandy and Election Day are in close proximity, I want you to relax a little. Not all the way, just a little.

Come Nov. 6, the Eastern seaboard will not be in total disarray. Hurricane Sandy is hitting the East Coast early enough that most of its effects will probably be ameliorated by Election Day. Of course, it’s not called a natural disaster for nothing. But don’t worry about is the utter breakdown of the democratic process in the Northeast. Instead, pay attention to which select groups of voters might face storm-related trouble on Election Day, and how Obama reacts to the storm.

Broadly, there are two ways that Hurricane Sandy could throw Election Day into a funk. First, damage caused by the storm could make it harder for certain people to vote. John Hudak, a governance fellow at the Brookings Institute, reassures me that it would take a really unconscionable amount of damage to suppress voting in swing states—Pennsylvania and Virginia—as voters there get just how close the race is. They could, however, be screwed out of voting by impassible roads, a risk that applies heavily to those rural (Republican) voters who live a solid 20 or 30 minutes from their polling place. Add the blizzard barreling toward western Virginia, where Romney is ahead, and Sandy could mean a handier victory for Obama.

On the other hand, widespread, persistent power loss would force polling places to either procure generators to run electronic voting machines or to issue paper ballots. The latter would mean extraordinarily long lines in more densely trafficked polling places, not unlike the lines that turned off urban (Democratic) voters in Cleveland in 2004. Turned-off voters in urban centers like New York, Connecticut, or Maryland wouldn’t cost Obama those states. But as Alec MacGillis pointed out last week, depressed Democratic turnout would exaggerate the slim but real chance that Obama wins in the Electoral College while losing the popular vote....

One thing is certain, Hudak says, which is, Obama’s response will dominate media coverage. And provided that Obama doesn’t tell anyone he’s doing a “heckuva job” when he’s patently not, Obama will probably exit Sandy’s aftermath appearing in command and in control. What positive effects this could have for him (Would this bring new voters into Obama’s column? How many?) may not be quantifiable, but Romney’s general disadvantage is pretty clear. “Everything is going to be about the storm, the governors, and the president,” Hudak says. “And all the super PAC money in the world can’t buy Romney the attention that the president is going to get in the next few days.”
Click to expand...

http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109304/what-hurricane-sandy-means-election-day

Think of it as God's own October surprise.
 
W

witness

Member
Went to the rally today at the UCF campus in Orlando. It was disappointing that Obama wasn't here but completely understandable. Both Crist and Nelson were great, but Bill Clinton was his usual fantastic self. He's such a great speaker and explains things and relates to a crowd so fantastically. It was a great time. Everyone was high as shit on Hopium there.

I'm just confident of Obama winning this state, I think he will win it and end election night early.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Black Mamba said:
Well daily kos sued also sued a polling firm for lying. It bappens

I don't know what ras is doing. I'm just saying their results are off statistically. Not because it favors the GOP but because its too stable. They show no mistakes.

Compare the. To PPP. Their numbers move. Same with everyone else. Sometimes in GOP favor.

I haven't plotted he data by ras so it's just me asking stuff. It looks too stable. Maybe I'm wrong and suffering from confirmation bias. It's why I asked for a ras poll being good for dens contrary to opinion.
Click to expand...
They had a poll in the summer showing Baldwin up 7 over Thompson when everyone else was showing a Baldwin lead.

However they also showed one of the teabaggers in the primary trailing Baldwin by less, prompting some discussion that they might have been trying to influence the primary results and get a more conservative candidate. If they show a Democrat leading a race like that, you can usually find an agenda.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
It's amusing to me how Rasmussen has the most impressive, high-value website. But then they do polls on the cheap with robocalls. The whole operation is just a scam with Fox News to promote Scott Rasmussen the man first and foremost, but he's got a synergy with them whereas they promote his polls and have him make appearances, in exchange he makes cheap robopolls that get favorable polls for Fox News's narrative. It's just so blatant.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Hawkian said:
This motherfucking state.


Look at that gender gap.
LOOK AT IT.
My dad is legitimately going to have a heart attack.
Click to expand...
At least it remains close. I had pretty much written off Florida considering the voted in Rick Scott.

WTF is with men & Romney/Obama? Do they feel threatened with Obama
(a black man)
as president? Is it a dick-swinging military thing? Is it a "control women" thing?

I understand why women avoid Romney. But I don't understand why men are more attracted to him. Or maybe if Romney was solidly pro-choice, he'd win easily?
 
A

Averon

Member
It will be interesting to see how long it takes CNN calls states for Obama or Romney given their current state of being obsessed over being "even-handed".
 
A

Anticitizen One

Banned
Ah shit new poll says Scott Brown is now evenly tied with Elizebeth Warren for Senate and I just found out Bill Clinton was the only post-WW2 democratic president to win a second term. :(
 
M

markatisu

Member
Did anyone see the Des Moines Register Editor on MSNBC this morning? It was hilarious, the conversation went like this

Q: Can you tell us why after backing Obama in 2008 you went with Gov Romney this year?
A: We deliberated and the 5 member panel decided that Gov Romney had the best plans for Iowas economy

Q: Can you give us some of those specifics of his plan for our viewers?
A: I am not going to get into details, we also appreciated his transparency

Q: So how do you feel about the incident regard Jeep and the fact that Romney was clearly caught lying now? If your advising your readers about who to trust how do you feel about this recent event?
A: We are not going to get into details, we feel he has the better plan for Iowa

Q: So with the unemployment rate at 5% one of the lowest in the nation, what exactly is it with Obama's plans that make you think another 4 years would not keep lowering that number?
A: We are not going to get into details, we believe Gov Romney has the best plan for Iowa.
Click to expand...

I sat there with my mouth open, it was like am I the only one watching them completely avoid every question
 
C

Clevinger

Member
I can't wait until I hear about all the inevitable voter suppression mailers telling people the election has been delayed a week or something because of Sandy.
 
3

3rdman

Member
Averon said:
It will be interesting to see how long it takes CNN calls states for Obama or Romney given their current state of being obsessed over being "even-handed".
Click to expand...

Every station wants to be the first to call a state...Remember the rush to judgement with the SC ruling on the ACA? Yeah, it'll be like that.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Brown Overtakes Warren in Massachusetts

A new Boston Globe poll in Massachusetts shows Sen. Scott Brown (R) with a razor thin lead over Elizabeth Warren (D) in their U.S. Senate race among likely voters, 45% to 43%.

In September, Warren held a five point lead.

However, Brown's lead evaporates, with 47% for each candidate, when voters who are undecided are asked which candidate they are leaning toward.
Click to expand...
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/29/brown_overtakes_warren_in_massachusetts.html
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Nazgul_Hunter said:
Nah they're competing with other outlets to get the news out first. They'll call it as soon as they can
Click to expand...

I'm almost hoping Fox calls states incorrectly to go along with their narrative and to try to spook CNN into calling them wrong as well. We could wake up the day after to a nation where the two parties disagree as to who actually won the election.
 
G

gcubed

Member
markatisu said:
Did anyone see the Des Moines Register Editor on MSNBC this morning? It was hilarious, the conversation went like this



I sat there with my mouth open, it was like am I the only one watching them completely avoid every question
Click to expand...

perfect for each other
 
3

3rdman

Member
markatisu said:
Did anyone see the Des Moines Register Editor on MSNBC this morning? It was hilarious, the conversation went like this



I sat there with my mouth open, it was like am I the only one watching them completely avoid every question
Click to expand...

Reminds me of the Sun Sentinel (Florida) endorsement of Mitts...In the same paragraph, they acknowledge the shit storm that Obama inherited and the admirable job he did so it made sense to go with Romney now. Le sigh...
 
C

coldfoot

Banned
So God is punishing us heathen libruls along with the gays and the depraved, filthy ny crazies. What does that mean for Romney's chances?
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
coldfoot said:
So God is punishing us heathen libruls along with the gays and the depraved, filthy ny crazies. What does that mean for Romney's chances?
Click to expand...
It means that Mitt gets to help out with the clean-up and recovery efforts in his Massachusetts after the race, as he'll have plenty of free time at that point.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
"68% of Republicans, 49% of Democrats think it's possible for people to be possessed by demons"

This makes me realize that mankind is ultimately going to snuff itself out. Really? Most people think you can be possessed by demons? Do you think The Exorcist was a documentary or something? Grow the fuck up people. Demons do not exist.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
coldfoot said:
So God is punishing us heathen libruls along with the gays and the depraved, filthy ny crazies. What does that mean for Romney's chances?
Click to expand...

This situation does not give Romney any advantages. He's not going to pull an upset in any democratic stronghold. Obama is going to be the one getting media attention this week, not him. His last chance to make his "final case" has been dampened tremendously. In a week that would be wall-to-wall election coverage there is now a natural disaster and the people who will be getting attention from this will be the governors and the President.
 
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