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[AniHawk]

I don't think we're in for any surprises given the economic numbers last week.

what were those?

 

[RustyNails]

When is Sandy expected to make landfall?

 

[Angry Grimace]

what were those?

I brought them up but they were not really reported on much or talked about here (mostly because PollMania) - they showed moderate growth but it doesn't make for a good talking point since the growth wasn't big enough for Obama to trumpet but looked too good for Romney to demonize.

 

[Father_Brain]

With the latest FL polls, it looks like Romney is only succeeding in taking one swing state (NC) off the board. Perhaps not even NC, given the tied poll earlier today.

Worst-case scenario remains 277 Obama (Romney wins all states where he's currently leading, plus NH/FL/CO/VA), unless the state poll truthers somehow prove correct.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Dead heat!

Blitzer will say Romney is ahead in FL due to this poll

 

[Hawkian]

This motherfucking state.

A CNN/ORC International poll in the battleground state of Florida shows the presidential race remains tight, with 50% of likely voters choosing Mitt Romney and 49% picking Barack Obama.

The results are unchanged from a similar survey in mid-October, and indicate the number of truly undecided voters in the Sunshine State is nearly non-existent.

The poll also shows men in Florida continue to prefer Romney, 55% to 43%, while women tend to prefer Obama, 54% to 45%

Look at that gender gap.

LOOK AT IT.

My dad is legitimately going to have a heart attack.

 

[RoninChaos]

It is never about the baby. It's punishment

That's the core of the problem, isn't it?

I still can't get over that lady saying abortion is a big a deal as slavery this morning on NPR.

 

[PhoenixDark]

This motherfucking state.


Look at that gender gap.

LOOK AT IT.

My dad is legitimately going to have a heart attack.

Florida was always going to be about turnout

 

[Angry Grimace]

That's the core of the problem, isn't it?

I still can't get over that lady saying abortion is a big a deal as slavery this morning on NPR.

If you believe that fetuses are human lives, I can at least understand what she's trying to say - I don't agree with it, but I can why someone would think that.

 

[Mike M]

Wow, I don't recall PoliGAF being this unreadable during the 2008 election...

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Good answer on the election question.

What was the question and what was the response?

 

[AniHawk]

I brought them up but they were not really reported on much or talked about here (mostly because PollMania) - they showed moderate growth but it doesn't make for a good talking point since the growth wasn't big enough for Obama to trumpet but looked too good for Romney to demonize.

all right. running even isn't bad.

 

[Hawkian]

Florida was always going to be about turnout

That is the reason for said heart attack. The man's been getting out the vote every day, all day, for months. He works at home in the evening hours.

 

[jbug617]

I wonder how Blitzer is going to spin the Florida poll. Also do you think for the next couple of days polls will be ignored on tv for Sandy coverage.

 

[RustyNails]

Wow, I don't recall PoliGAF being this unreadable during the 2008 election...

Lot of new folks if I recall...including me

 

[Y2Kev]

Wow, I don't recall PoliGAF being this unreadable during the 2008 election...

Liberals are panicking given Romentum/surge

 

[Angry Grimace]

all right. running even isn't bad.

They're basically the exact right numbers for them to have little practical effect at the polls even when the Economy is the No. 1 issue. People leaning Romney see growth being too slow and people leaning Obama see growth period.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Wow, I don't recall PoliGAF being this unreadable during the 2008 election...

Obama was ahead in 2008

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

Obama was ahead in 2008

True.

 

[syllogism]

Pew national poll has the race tied 47-47% (previous poll after first debate R+4)

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/

 

[pigeon]

It's clever of the Obama campaign to send out an email that doesn't contain a fundraising request but just says "hey watch out for the storm." However, I feel like they could've filtered Californians out of the list, it just looks lazy.

 

[AniHawk]

In 2008, it took Democrats six days to erase the GOP's vote-by-mail advantage in Florida.

In 2012, it took two days.

that accounts for about 22% of all votes cast in 2008 (including the absentee ballots). pretty encouraging.

It's clever of the Obama campaign to send out an email that doesn't contain a fundraising request but just says "hey watch out for the storm." However, I feel like they could've filtered Californians out of the list, it just looks lazy.

hey there could be a storm in california. maybe a few millimeters here or there. you don't know.

 

[DragonSworne]

McCain was tied in 2008

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

It's clever of the Obama campaign to send out an email that doesn't contain a fundraising request but just says "hey watch out for the storm." However, I feel like they could've filtered Californians out of the list, it just looks lazy.

Not from what Diablos and I hear. California is in for a wet and wild ride.

 

[Hawkian]

Wow, I don't recall PoliGAF being this unreadable during the 2008 election...

I don't know exactly what you mean, but this time last election Barack Obama was already spending Electoral Votes at the arcade to get rid of the extra he didn't need.

 

[SSGMUN10000]

Some of you guys need to chill with your freakouts. You are going to give me a heart attack. Everytime there is some doubt that creeps up I go to 538. Things around here were so much better in '08.

 

[thefro]

It's clever of the Obama campaign to send out an email that doesn't contain a fundraising request but just says "hey watch out for the storm." However, I feel like they could've filtered Californians out of the list, it just looks lazy.

There's a link to donate to the red cross in the e-mail too.

thefro--

This is a serious storm, but we are going to do what it takes to keep people safe and secure, and make sure the communities affected get the assistance they need. FEMA is working with state and local governments to respond effectively. We all owe a debt of thanks to the first responders who will be dealing with the immediate impact of the storm.

If you live in the storm's path, please listen to state and local authorities about where and how to take shelter and stay safe -- and encourage your friends and family to do the same. If you are asked to evacuate, please take that seriously.

For more information on how to prepare for this storm, visit Ready.gov.

And if you'd like to find out how to support relief efforts where they're needed most, please visit the Red Cross or your local relief organization:

http://my.barackobama.com/Red-Cross

Michelle and I are keeping everyone in the affected areas in our thoughts and prayers. Be safe.

Barack

 

[Angry Grimace]

that accounts for about 22% of all votes cast in 2008 (including the absentee ballots). pretty encouraging.



hey there could be a storm in california. maybe a few millimeters here or there. you don't know.

I literally can't see a cloud in the sky =V

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Obama was ahead in 2008

Right, and everyone was freaking out over the Bradley Effect happening.

Let's keep it real.

 

[airmangataosenai]

McCain was tied in 2008

Haha, I remember how desperately they tried to keep the narrative going for ratings Once they ran out of polling that stopped more or less but lord knows they tried (McCAIN ahead by 1 in IBD!!!)

 

[jbug617]

What was the question and what was the response?

Somebody asked how Sandy would affect the election. Obama said his priority is with Sandy and the states being hit and the election will handle it self.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Right, and everyone was freaking out over the Bradley Effect happening.

Let's keep it real.

I wasn't

 

[Jackson50]

Republicans seem very confident about their organization and get out the vote efforts in Ohio. This is the first time we have seen a Romney lead there. Like I said we do have to wait for more polls but it is possible that the race is tightening up there.

Your wait is over, friend. Ohio is the most polled state. And there's no evidence it's tightening. And I'd expect Republicans to seem confident. But Obama's organization is vastly superior, so he'll not lose because of Romney's GOTV efforts.

Florida was always going to be about turnout

Most elections are.

 

[pigeon]

Incidentally, that CNN Florida poll is tied among LVs with third parties listed, with a large RV advantage persisting.

 

[cooljeanius]

Florida was always going to be about turnout

So has everywhere

 

[ryutaro's mama]

I wasn't

So if I run a quick search, I'm not gonna find a PD post with the Bradley Effect discussed?

Is that what you are saying?

Post history doesn't lie, friend.

 

[Angry Grimace]

So if I run a quick search, I'm not gonna find a PD post with the Bradley Effect discussed?

Is that what you are saying?

Post history doesn't lie, friend.

C'mon guys, let's not turn the thread meta.

 

[RDreamer]

I almost feel bad for Romney surrogates having to defend that stupid Jeep ad.

 

[Black Mamba]

Lol at ras poll. Clear outlier.

I have to wonder if ras is fudging numbers at this point. Can someone show me a ras state poll that leaned Obama contrary to most other polling? Because this would have to happen randomly from noise if ras is being honest.

Ras numbers look way too stable in general in state polling.

Florida poll is good for Obama. Race is close but Romney still with small lead. Like I said it tightened there.

Pew poll is decent too. Abc unchanged again. More instability in that one please.

 

[norinrad]

What the hell is going on in Florida? Old people voting against their rights?

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Lol at ras poll. Clear outlier.

I have to wonder if ras is fudging numbers at this point. Can someone show me a ras state poll that leaned Obama contrary to most other polling? Because this would have to happen randomly from noise if ras is being honest.

Ras numbers look way too stable in general in state polling.

Florida poll is good for Obama. Race is close but Romney still with small lead. Like I said it tightened there.

Pew poll is decent too. Abc unchanged again. More instability in that one please.

Looks like my Patriots analogy was correct.

DAT 18-1.

 

[The Librarian]

Pew national poll has the race tied 47-47% (previous poll after first debate R+4)

http://www.people-press.org/2012/10/29/presidential-race-dead-even-romney-maintains-turnout-edge/

Obama's surging.

 

[Bel Marduk]

What the hell is going on in Florida? Old people voting against their rights?

Always, but they're outnumbered. Its all about GOTV and the ground game. I'm volunteering starting tomorrow so hopefully we can get our people out.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

What the hell is going on in Florida? Old people voting against their rights?

NEWSFLASH: More than old people live in FL.

Also, the panhandle is basically Alabama Annex.

Super red.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Lol at ras poll. Clear outlier.

I have to wonder if ras is fudging numbers at this point. Can someone show me a ras state poll that leaned Obama contrary to most other polling? Because this would have to happen randomly from noise if ras is being honest.

Ras numbers look way too stable in general in state polling.

Florida poll is good for Obama. Race is close but Romney still with small lead. Like I said it tightened there.

Pew poll is decent too. Abc unchanged again. More instability in that one please.

There's no evidence at all that Rasmussen knows something everyone else doesn't.

 

[Y2Kev]

false. rasmussen is giving us numbers corrected by jon husted.

 

[pigeon]

Lol at ras poll. Clear outlier.

I have to wonder if ras is fudging numbers at this point. Can someone show me a ras state poll that leaned Obama contrary to most other polling? Because this would have to happen randomly from noise if ras is being honest.

Ras numbers look way too stable in general in state polling.

I've been saying this!

Also, for those of you who have gotten freaked out by the Gallup tracker, I have good news for you:

The Gallup organization "will most likely suspend all of our national tracking if we feel the representativeness of the data in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast is likely to be compromised" by the storm, according to Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport. Via email, Newport reports that Gallup "will make a final decision later this morning."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...251.html?1351520601&ncid=edlinkusaolp00000008

GOD SMITES THE OUTLIER

edit: Apparently when the Northeast is hit by a huge storm the result is that only HuffPo produces content.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

I wonder how the lack of polling will effect Nate's model. Will be all the more impressive if it stays correct.

 

[Black Mamba]

There's no evidence at all that Rasmussen knows something everyone else doesn't.

Even if this were true his numbers are still too stable. Look at how he got either tied or plus one four consecutive times. And it's similar in other states.

How is he so stable with moe of 4? It's nonsense. Even if you have a republican lean the variability in polling cannot change.

Even if you lean republican you should have some favorable dem outcomes randomly. All other republican leaning pollsters had shown this. Same with dem in favor of repubs.

Ras is consistently good for Romney and GOP senators. It's nonsense.

 

[Y2Kev]

I've been saying this!

Also, for those of you who have gotten freaked out by the Gallup tracker, I have good news for you:



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...251.html?1351520601&ncid=edlinkusaolp00000008

GOD SMITES THE OUTLIER

edit: Apparently when the Northeast is hit by a huge storm the result is that only HuffPo produces content.

HuffPo is actually not staffed by people. It is a very advanced algorithm that scans CNN for stories about celebrity tits and then adds in random headlines stolen from various sources, notably movie trailers, popsicle stick jokes, and Bazooka Joe comics.

This content does not require an author.