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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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Black Mamba
Member
Won't be worried about the warren poll without others showing movement. Very likely an oulier
Republican Senate versus out-of-town candidate. Warren pulling into the lead was definitely correlated with a fear that Romney might win and/or that the GOP might take the Senate. Bostonians are apparently reading 538 -- if the Dems are pretty much guaranteed to hold the Senate, and Obama's leading, they can vote for the candidate they like more
because they're dickheads
That said, until we see one or two more polls, I wouldn't worry about it.
His secret plan was to be a middling president and try to work with the republicans to get re-elected and then DESTROY AMERICA in his 2nd term. He is playing the long game. 3 dimension chess.
StopMakingSense
Member
Yeah, that flies in the face of nearly every other poll.
ErasureAcer
Banned
Hope Silver is right about Obama winning so we can call him Nate Gold.
The Lamonster
Member
I had no idea. Good thing they called or I would have voted for the wrong guy!
It seems like you obviously have no other option left.
Aaron Strife
Banned
UNH is a pretty volatile outfit, also.
If only there were other polls displaying otherwise.
lol, nope. Out of 1445 likely voters they found 79 Hispanics. I find it interesting they are going with Gallup with the idea voter turnout will be 36R, 35D and 29I when in 2008 it was 39D, 29R and 31I.
Basically republican turnout will be closer to 2004 then 2008.
DietRob
i've been begging for over 5 years.
I'd rather it to have said. "I voted today." instead of a picture of 'red' Ohio that is supposed to signify a heart.
Nearly half of the candidates were republicans running unopposed. I guess nobody had the guts to try and oust the current Speaker of the House.
If he's accurate again after all the personal attacks, he will gain A LOT of credibility and next cycle, he'll be a go-to guy. I anticipate the media will be covering his site and similar ones over folks like RCP and individuals polls (Gallup!). Let's hope it happens
I'd rather it to have said. "I voted today." instead of a picture of 'red' Ohio that is supposed to signify a heart.
i unspecified blob voting too
I'd rather it to have said. "I voted today." instead of a picture of 'red' Ohio that is supposed to signify a heart.
Nearly half of the candidates were republicans running unopposed. I guess nobody had the guts to try and oust the current Speaker of the House.
I Coffeestain Voting
It's so obvious that the des moines register was influenced by their boss or bain capital which I think owns or finances the newspaper to support romney. I really hope the federal government turns down murdock's request to buy those newspapers in chicago and LA this is becoming too cartoony villany.
You're mixing up your asshole GOP congressmen. Joe Wilson was the douchebag who yelled that out.
PhoenixDark
Banned
Doubtful. The media will always choose to hype a "close" election while ignoring aggregates. Nilver got 2008 and 2010 right, he's not a one hit wonder. Chuck Todd and others will continue driving the narrative in whatever direction gets the most coverage.
You'll never seen Todd get on TV and say "look, this thing is probably already over. Obama has a 70% chance of winning according to Nate Silver."
Also, the right is really hammering Silver right now. Just saw Erick Erikson and others passing this around
https://twitter.com/Model538
Conservative humor is brilliant.
Has Chuck ever referenced 538 or mentioned Nate Silver? I don't ever recall a time he has.
Yeah MSNBC actually alluded to that saying the person who owns the Register actually decides who to endorse and the answer was "well we are not going to get into specifics, we have a 5 member board that goes over the candidates and then gives our findings. But look we trust our readers to make an informed position and most of them have already voted anyway"
So a complete deflection and then basically saying its meaningless because a lot of the state has already voted lol
That's just embarrassing.
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
They have a vested interest in hammering Silver. It's part of their GOTV - if Romney-leaning voters determine Silver is right and Romney has no viable path to 270, then they might just stay home.
Anticitizen One
Banned
Game Over Libruls. Dis country is Conservaateev
jamesinclair
Banned
This storm has caused my approval rating of Obama to drop by 10%.
Job killing president.
Job killing president.
el retorno
Member
Romney winning D.C. confirmed.
Anticitizen One
Banned
haha and I thought this was going to be a boring Bob Dole vs. Clinton style election
speculawyer
Member
In short: Yes.
In Florida, they voted for Rick Scott, the CEO who's company committed THE LARGEST CRIMINAL MEDICARE FRAUD IN HISTORY. Florida . . . home of retired medicare users.
They are more worried about that young colored guy that Fox news lambasts non-stop.
Along with the old people voting against their own interest, throw in Alabama annex (as a poster described), military people, and Cubans. And thus you end up with a tough state for Dems to win.
You may be right but I feel prediction models will be actually included in coverage moving forward...if Nate does it again. 2008 and 2010 were "no-brainers" as far as elections go. If he can be accurate on something with a "doubtful" outcome, I think it'd be a big deal to the political media
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
My parents are old people who hate Obama and they mostly do so because they have some unspecified fear of the "country going down the shitter," which has never been explained to me by any conservative ever.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Fuck. One less day of early voting will completely erase Obama's built-in advantage in the critical swing state of Washington D.C.
speculawyer
Member
I'd rather it to have said. "I voted today." instead of a picture of 'red' Ohio that is supposed to signify a heart.
Nearly half of the candidates were republicans running unopposed. I guess nobody had the guts to try and oust the current Speaker of the House.
"I Ohio voting"?
Anticitizen One
Banned
Republicans know they can just throw the medicare fraud on the democrats and get away with it.
Red Blaster
Member
To be fair everyone in the state fucking hates Dick Scott now
el retorno
Member
exactly I think we need to completely rethink our electoral maps
Basically all the democratic party votes come from the highly populated (and largely awesome) areas of the Tri-County area in south Florida (my homelands) and college campuses throughout the state (Alachua county especially with UF). Every other part of the state is a brutal wasteland not to be visited, let alone granted sway over the future of the country (I take this opportunity to apologize to Tampa, Sarasota, St. Augustine and a few cities on the gulf coast).
cooljeanius
Member
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
There actually are D.C. polls - I think Obama was last shown up by 85 points.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HfvvYuO6zHM&feature=youtube_gdata_player
Your planet is doomed, dooooommmed.
Your planet is doomed, dooooommmed.
el retorno
Member
So are parts of Brooklyn.
I'm pretty sure they'll extend it by a day anyways
???
RustyNails
Member
Bad news for Nucky Thompson
Aaron Strife
Banned
All Democrats need to vote on November 7th!
PhoenixDark
Banned
I've never seen him reference him, but then again I only watch a few nbc clips online since I don't have a TV. Silver pretty much makes what Todd does extinct, so I'd imagine Todd wouldn't willingly put any focus on the 538 model.
The right's Silver obsession has been a marvel to watch. I think some genuinely don't trust him, but I kind of see something else happening here. I think we're seeing a level of willful ignorance in terms of how many conservatives view this election. I think we're seeing a further setting of the stage for massive voter fraud charges and potential incitement. The narrative right now is that Romney still has momentum, he's being optimistic because he's going to win, Obama is desperate, he has no chance, etc. State polls don't reflect that, at all though. Still, the right's general state argument is that national polls will dictate what happens - ie the challenger will get all the undecided voters and win nearly every swing state. The Kosmo argument, basically.
Silver is the only notable guy arguing against the "Romney momentum" theory, and suggesting Obama will win handily; sure Wang/PEC is too, but he's not nearly as visible as Silver has become. By smearing him as an Obama partisan, republicans can dismiss his shit - even if he's right on November 6th - and claim "no polls" showed Obama would win, therefore something fishy happened.
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