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[GhaleonEB]

"Race is tied, but most think Obama will win the election."

Can't copy paste for whatever reason:

-53% think Obama will win, 29% think Romney will win

-Of the 22% of those polled who had voted early, 55% have voted for Obama, 40% have voted for Romney.

Now compare that to Gallup:

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots.

Gallup is going to not come out of this election with their reputation intact.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

Has obama been on tv or what? Photo ops? Pics of him holding children? Him in Joe the plumber attire wading through the water?....Anything....?

 

[MasterShotgun]

My secret wish is that Obama wins Georgia due to the African-American voting surge there. That would be a hell of a drug.

You can only imagine how ecstatic I would be since I live in Georgia. I would need to start a bottling company so I could collect and save all those tears to savor forever.

 

[Aaron Strife]

http://news.yahoo.com/national-student-election-picks-obama-next-president-160212030.html



Obama won the Channel One vote btw

How I read that: "correctly says that President Barack Obama will defeat Mitt Romney"

I fucking dare them to try it. Remember what happened to the last president the GOP impeached? I certainly remember what happened to his approval ratings.

They'll look petty and desperate and vindictive in doing so.

It's not like they'd even be able to get anywhere with it, barring some explosive scandal. Boehner's majority next year will likely be smaller, while Reid's will be bigger, and it takes a 2/3rds majority to impeach the president.

If they really want to try it... go ahead I guess.

Now compare that to Gallup:



Gallup is going to not come out of this election with their reputation intact.

Seriously. What a knee-slapper.

 

[Effect]

Yeah, sometimes I flip over to Fox News either on tv or the radio for some laughs, but I just end up getting pissed off.

I can tell you that when I went this morning in South Florida, a good percentage of the people on line were black.

They canceled the early voting the weekend right before the election. That Sunday a lot of African American voters would vote after church. The primary reason why that was canceled I think as well since that was suppose to be well known in Flordia. Really glad people are taking advantage of the early voting instead.

 

[BertramCooper]

Oh God, Channel One.

I can't believe that shit still exists.

 

[Mackenzie 92]

I registered in CA online about a week ago. Got my sample ballot in the mail a few days later.

Where'd you do that at? I had to print mine out and mail it in.

 

[Mike M]

I fucking dare them to try it. Remember what happened to the last president the GOP impeached? I certainly remember what happened to his approval ratings.

They'll look petty and desperate and vindictive in doing so.

Well they took the White House in the following election, so I doubt that's strong disincentive.

 

[HylianTom]

Well they "took"* the White House in the following election, so I doubt that's strong disincentive.

I rarely fix things here at GAF, but couldn't resist this time around.

 

[speculawyer]

Romney is a Jackhole. Previously I would have blamed this on over-eager campaign staffer flaks. But Romney could stop this . . . if he chose to do so.

Bogus Jeep-to-China ad by Romney draws fire from Obama in campaigns’ last gasp

Before Romney even took the stage in Defiance, Ohio, to repeat the claim on Thursday night, Chrysler's public relations chief had released a blistering reply calling it an "unnecessary fantasy." That didn't deter Romney's team from put up this weekend, telling reporters who called to ask how they could make such claims that it was technically true -- although Romney has never produced a plan for helping the auto industry:

"Obama took GM and Chrysler into bankruptcy and sold Chrysler to Italians who are going to build Jeeps in China," the narrator states. "Mitt Romney will fight for every American job."

Even by the standards of our post-factual political culture, that's a lot of bogus-ness for one sentence to carry. Romney's taken credit for the idea that GM and Chrysler should have gone bankrupt, and said he would have done it sooner -- although he's never explained how that might have worked, exactly. The Italian automaker Fiat was the only buyer interested in Chrysler, after its previous private equity owners at Cerberus Capital couldn't steer through the financial storm of 2008. And is building Jeeps in China worse than building Buicks, Chevys, Fords or any of the dozen of other Western car brands made in Chinese plants for Chinese buyers?

http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/bogus-jeep-china-ad-romney-draws-fire-obama-203642902.html

Maddow had a good point last night . . . she pointed out that his TVs started with a blatant line (falsely attributing a McCain quote to Obama) and appears to be ending with a blatant line.

 

[explodet]

Hopium - related to African-Americans voting:

There was a Slate story related to that, about how voter supression efforts might be backfiring:

The plan, coordinated by at least 150 black pastors, is called “Operation Lemonade.” On Wednesday, I visited New Birth, parking near the van that promotes his radio talk show, and finding Curry’s office in the sprawling, 10-year-old gated complex. Outside the chapel, there’s a signed message from President Obama congratulating Curry on the church’s anniversary. Inside Curry’s office, there are multiple pictures commemorating his meetings with Sharpton and with Bill Clinton, next to his lifetime membership plaque from the NAACP, and a picture from election night 2008. That year, churches got two whole weeks to turn out the early vote. This year they get one.

“When the Republicans in the state passed the new voting laws, we discovered that they took away that Sunday right before the election,” says Curry. “What we decided to do was view that as them giving us a lemon. We can be sour, we can moan and groan about it, or we can do something. We can make lemonade. The first thrust is this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, and then we’re going to encourage people the entire next week.”

 

[Loudninja]

Maryland Early Voting Extended Over Sandy

Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley signed an executive order on Tuesday that extended the early voting period to make up for two days that were cancelled by Superstorm Sandy. All early voting locations will now be open from 8 a.m. until 9 p.m. on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/maryland-early-voting-extended-over-sandy

 

[Squirrel Killer]

No I am not. You originally posted there is an advantage to the EC because states that are reliably one party will vote that way despite depressed turnout from a mega disaster, producing the same results as if there were no mega disaster in the first place. I replied saying *or* we could just delay the election date – whether or not we have an EC at all (admittedly I was a bit vague on this point). In your reply you said that there were problems with that, saying people would not be near their polling precincts or whatever. I then moved to ask the following question (which you have still not answered): Why would there be more people trying to vote during or right after a mega disaster than trying to vote a week later when any effects have been minimized?

Sweetheart, you're the one who's conflating topics. You turned my original comment "delaying the election day" into "weekday voting is better than weekend/holiday voting."

Because you were, as you admit, vague, I misinterpreted what you were saying. I was wrong to misinterpret you, my bad. I didn't answer the question about voting after a disaster because it was inapplicable to what I was talking about.

So now, in response to what you were saying, that sounds like a horrible idea. Worse than even just moving the Election Day to a weekend for regular elections. Moving the federal election date in response to a local/regional disaster would cause massive confusion. You know how everyone gets all up in arms over "Remember to vote on Thursday!" bullshit? Compound that by 1000x.

 

[Cloudy]

Has obama been on tv or what? Photo ops? Pics of him holding children? Him in Joe the plumber attire wading through the water?....Anything....?

He's going to be at the DC Red Cross momentarily

 

[Manmademan]

First of all, you're severely underestimating the popularity of college football. It might not be as lucrative as the NFL, but it's pretty fucking popular, and its popularity is arguably more geographically widespread. (There are numerous popular and powerful college programs in states that don't have any NFL teams nearby.)

Pretty Sure I'm Not.

54% of U.S. residents are college football fans. This includes 12% who watch college football a great deal, 10% who enjoy a good amount of it, and 32% who say they follow it a little. 46% do not watch college football at all.

Men, residents who earn $50,000 or more annually, and those in the Midwest, West, and South are those who are most likely to be college football fans.

Americans, however, are more inclined to be professional football fans than college football fans. More than two-thirds of U.S. residents — 68% — tune into the NFL at least a little bit. This includes 20% who watch the sport a great deal, 16% who follow it a good amount, and 32% who catch it a little. 32% do not watch it all.

Although there is little difference among geographic regions, men and Americans younger than 45 years old are more likely to be professional football fans.

Is there an overlap in the proportion of U.S. residents who watch both professional football and college football? Yes. Nearly half of Americans — 49% — watch both NFL and college football. The proportion who watches just professional football outnumbers those who tune into just college football. Nearly one in five — 19% — check out only the pros tossing the pigskin around while only 5% follow just college teams. More than one in four residents — 27% — do not watch either professional or college football.

The NFL absolutely crushes the NCAA in terms of popularity among US residents by nearly 20%.

And of those 52% or so who are actually fans to ANY extent (vs. those that don't give a shit about it) only 22% would even be concerned if there was a conflict. Those who watch "a little bit" or virtually not at all wouldn't care. That's about...oh, 80% of the country.

Secondly, it would absolutely, positively be an issue. Tuesday voting has been standard for ages, and convenience aside, people are accustomed to it. What they're not accustomed to is devoting two hours on a weekend to vote. That's not convenient for them; it's annoying.

Daylight savings time was standard for decades- until they moved it. people got over it.

Making the Tuesday election a federal holiday would be a far more palatable option than Saturday or Sunday voting.

I'm not opposed to making tuesday a federal holiday, but the conservative argument is that more federal holidays costs business money. The saturday option alleviates that.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Well they took the White House in the following election, so I doubt that's strong disincentive.

The immediate aftermath lost them seats in the House in 1998, a rarity for an incumbent president's party to make gains in a midterm election. Gingrich was also forced into resignation once his own scandals came out and made him look like the lying, cheating hypocritical scumbag he is.

Also given the dynamic of the 2000 election I don't think that's really a clear victory for either side. Bush became president which I suppose is all that matters, but Democrats also won the Senate that year.

 

[pigeon]

"Race is tied, but most think Obama will win the election."

One of those ties where Obama is leading by a point, incidentally.

Gallup is going to not come out of this election with their reputation intact.

I was going to post about this. At this point it's clear that whatever Gallup is doing, they really are showing Romney winning in pretty much a landslide. Nobody believes this except Dean Chambers. I wish they'd do a specific state poll so that I could identify whether the problem is something national or something about their methodology.

 

[Cloudy]

Oh God, Channel One.

I can't believe that shit still exists.

Monica Novotny and Lisa Ling made my mornings in high school. I remember Anderson Cooper on there too lol

 

[Mike M]

I rarely fix things here at GAF, but couldn't resist this time around.

Yeah, I considered addressing that in my initial post, but from the point of view of the GOP, they probably just think that the electoral college misfire in 2000 was Jesus intervenening to thwart the massive voter fraud that obviously had to occur for Gore to win the popular vote.

 

[Clevinger]

There was a Slate story related to that, about how voter supression efforts might be backfiring:

"We can be sour, we can moan and groan about it, or we can do something."

awesome.

 

[eBay Huckster]

just make the election itself two goddamn weeks long, full election-day hours and all

no need to restrict it to one day or one weekend if you're trying to maximize turnout and minimize confusion

 

[BertramCooper]

But here's the most telling stat.

Is there an overlap in the proportion of U.S. residents who watch both professional football and college football? Yes. Nearly half of Americans — 49% — watch both NFL and college football. The proportion who watches just professional football outnumbers those who tune into just college football. Nearly one in five — 19% — check out only the pros tossing the pigskin around while only 5% follow just college teams. More than one in four residents — 27% — do not watch either professional or college football.

And those who aren't watching football are almost certainly doing something that's far preferable to voting.

 

[Souldriver]

Part of me thinks this isn't gonna go away after Obama wins the election. They're going to try something stupid like impeaching him for it.

edit: looks like some people are already on it.

Indeed. Someone let idiocy and lunacy go rampant in US politics, and the coutry is gonna pay the price for it.

That's why i want a big Obama win, both in poluar vote and electoral vote. Just as a buffer against all the claims of him being an ilegitimate president. Some people are humoring the idea of a close election where Obama wins but loses the popular vote as funny, but thats just scary to me.

Just think about it for a second: if an election is decided by a few thousands of votes, suddenly small scale shinanigans and fraud does make a difference. Remember when in 2000 Florida was called for Gore by all news networks and then somehow Fox said Bush won, prompting the rest to change their narrative as well? Scary to think what officials and the media would do if we got a close election this year, with the craziness tenfolded compared to last decade?

 

[Rocket Scientist]

just make the election itself two goddamn weeks long, full election-day hours and all

no need to restrict it to one day or one weekend if you're trying to maximize turnout and minimize confusion

Problem. Fucking. Solved.

 

[The Librarian]

So now, in response to what you were saying, that's a horrible idea. Worse than even just moving the Election Day to a weekend for regular elections. Moving the federal election date in response to a local/regional disaster would cause massive confusion. You know how everyone gets all up in arms over "Remember to vote on Thursday!" bullshit? Compound that by 1000x.

I think you're overestimating the effects of such tactics, just like you overestimate your "orderly transition" reasoning for the EC.

just make the election itself two goddamn weeks long, full election-day hours and all

Or we could just do this.

 

[BertramCooper]

just make the election itself two goddamn weeks long, full election-day hours and all

no need to restrict it to one day or one weekend if you're trying to maximize turnout and minimize confusion

This is why early voting is awesome, and needs to continue to spread. (GOP be damned.)

 

[Aaron Strife]

Indeed. Someone let idiocy and lunacy go rampant in US politics, and the coutry is gonna pay the price for it.

That's why i want a big Obama win, both in poluar vote and electoral vote. Just as a buffer against all the claims of him being an ilegitimate president. Some people are humoring the idea of a close election where Obama wins but loses the popular vote as funny, but thats just scary to me.

Just think about it for a second: if an election is decided by a few thousands of votes, suddenly small scale shinanigans and fraud does make a difference. Remember when in 2000 Florida was called for Gore by all news networks and then somehow Fox said Bush won, prompting the rest to change their narrative as well? Scary to think what officials and the media would do if we got a close election this year, with the craziness tenfolded compared to last decade?

Fox: Virginia goes for Romney! Ohio goes for Romney!

 

[Manmademan]

But here's the most telling stat.



And those who aren't watching football are almost certainly doing something that's far preferable to voting.

Now I'm positive you're trolling.

 

[TacticalFox88]

Indeed. Someone let idiocy and lunacy go rampant in US politics, and the coutry is gonna pay the price for it.

That's why i want a big Obama win, both in poluar vote and electoral vote. Just as a buffer against all the claims of him being an ilegitimate president. Some people are humoring the idea of a close election where Obama wins but loses the popular vote as funny, but thats just scary to me.

Just think about it for a second: if an election is decided by a few thousands of votes, suddenly small scale shinanigans and fraud does make a difference. Remember when in 2000 Florida was called for Gore by all news networks and then somehow Fox said Bush won, prompting the rest to change their narrative as well? Scary to think what officials and the media would do if we got a close election this year, with the craziness tenfolded compared to last decade?

It'd be hilarious if Obama curbstomped Romney in both the EV AND PV. That's the ultimate salt to a wound that never healed.

 

[Averon]

One of those ties where Obama is leading by a point, incidentally.



I was going to post about this. At this point it's clear that whatever Gallup is doing, they really are showing Romney winning in pretty much a landslide. Nobody believes this except Dean Chambers. I wish they'd do a specific state poll so that I could identify whether the problem is something national or something about their methodology.

Now compare that to Gallup:

Gallup is going to not come out of this election with their reputation intact.

As I said before, Gallup with either be very right or very wrong next Wednesday morning. There's no wiggle room for them. They'll either be polling geniuses that picked up something that virtually every other polling firm missed, or they come out of this election having a damaged reputation.

 

[RDreamer]

There was a Slate story related to that, about how voter supression efforts might be backfiring:

I often wondered whether the suppression efforts would make African Americans more determined to vote. If someone was trying to disenfranchise me, I'd sure as hell go vote and bring anyone and everyone else I could possibly find.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

I think you're overestimating the effects of such tactics...

I think you underestimate how dumb people are.

 

[Bam Bam Baklava]

As I said before, Gallup with either be very right or very wrong next Wednesday morning. There's no wiggle room for them. They'll either be polling geniuses that picked up something that virtually every other polling firm missed, or they come out of this election having a damaged reputation.

What if they don't put out any polls due to the hurricane and get a pass. Or they come back with one last poll that shows a tied race or Obama ahead.

 

[BertramCooper]

Now I'm positive you're trolling.

Come the fuck on.

Enough people would bitch to their members of Congress that it would never ever happen.

It's not a realistic proposition. The Electoral College will be abolished before we see Election Day move to a weekend.

Also, Tuesday has the notable advantage of not conflicting with any major weekly religious observances. Saturday and Sunday, not so much.

 

[Zzoram]

One of those ties where Obama is leading by a point, incidentally.



I was going to post about this. At this point it's clear that whatever Gallup is doing, they really are showing Romney winning in pretty much a landslide. Nobody believes this except Dean Chambers. I wish they'd do a specific state poll so that I could identify whether the problem is something national or something about their methodology.

Maybe Gallup hired the Unskewed guy.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Chris Christie basically telling Romney to fuck off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu2SJbmhu2I

Gotta respect it. On one hand it's to be expected given he's in a blue state, has a major crisis to deal with, and can't afford to bite the hand that feeds (in this case the federal government). But as others have said it also could be a calculated political decision. He benefits from a Romney loss. The danger is that if Romney wins, NJ may be fucked over out of spite.

 

[Souldriver]

Fox: Virginia goes for Romney! Ohio goes for Romney!

You joke, but i wouldnt put it past them if those are the only states left uncalled and are the deciding states for the election... In fact, im sure they'd do it if the conditions allow for it.

 

[Zzoram]

Ya, there should be an Election Week, not a single day. That way people who may be busy on just that one day can get out and vote at their convenience on another day.

 

[djplaeskool]

But here's the most telling stat.

And those who aren't watching football are almost certainly doing something that's far preferable to voting.

That's a percentage in the 40s I can relate to.
I have a skewed view, since i live in the South, where it wouldn't be crazy for someone to choose football (especially college football) over all other civic duties.

 

[Squirrel Killer]

You joke, but i wouldnt put it past them if those are the only states left uncalled and are the deciding states for the election... In fact, im sure they'd do it if the conditions allow for it.

Who cares, cards talk.

 

[pigeon]

If we're interested in increasing turnout, it doesn't really matter whether the reason non-voters have for not voting is mandatory or option, they're still not voting.

It absolutely matters -- because it affects the solution. The example voter you suggested who wouldn't vote on a weekend because they're sleeping all day? That voter prefers DOING NOTHING to voting. No amount of increased accessibility will get them to vote, because you can always lie down. If we want that person to turn out, the day the polls are open just doesn't matter -- but mail-in ballots might, and so might fines for not voting. (Not that I'm saying we should have that, although some countries do.)

The issue is similar with all the optional problems you describe. If the problem is that people are prioritizing something they find entertaining over voting, it just doesn't matter what day the election is. We can only affect people who are prioritizing something they are forced to do over voting -- and those people would benefit the most from weekend voting, it seems to me.

To be candid, the GAO doesn't say weekend voting "depresses" turnout, it merely says it's inconclusive, and that weekend voting would be more expensive and more difficult to run.

Thanks for the precis. That conclusion seems unobjectionable to me -- although I still believe that it would turn out working better if we tried it

just make the election itself two goddamn weeks long, full election-day hours and all

no need to restrict it to one day or one weekend if you're trying to maximize turnout and minimize confusion

I certainly agree that this is the best solution.

 

[RustyNails]

Romney is a Jackhole. Previously I would have blamed this on over-eager campaign staffer flaks. But Romney could stop this . . . if he chose to do so.

http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/bogus-jeep-china-ad-romney-draws-fire-obama-203642902.html

Maddow had a good point last night . . . she pointed out that his TVs started with a blatant line (falsely attributing a McCain quote to Obama) and appears to be ending with a blatant line.

by the way isn't chrysler chief a Republican?

 

[The Lamonster]

You joke, but i wouldnt put it past them if those are the only states left uncalled and are the deciding states for the election... In fact, im sure they'd do it if the conditions allow for it.

We could see a situation where OH and VA are too close to call, and FL and CO go to Romney and Obama gets the rest of the swing states.

In that case, Obama would only need one - OH or VA - but not both. Romney would need both to win.

 

[Cloudy]

Chris Christie basically telling Romney to fuck off
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uu2SJbmhu2I

Gotta respect it. On one hand it's to be expected given he's in a blue state, has a major crisis to deal with, and can't afford to bite the hand that feeds (in this case the federal government). But as others have said it also could be a calculated political decision. He benefits from a Romney loss. The danger is that if Romney wins, NJ may be fucked over out of spite.

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp

Breaking: Obama to NJ tomorrow "will join Gov. Christie in viewing the storm damage, talking w/ citizens who are recovering from the storm"

.

 

[Averon]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332062/suspended-non-reanimation-michael-walsh

Suspended Non-Reanimation

Does anyone else find it deliciously ironic that Hurricane Sandy has forced the “suspension” of the Obama campaign while the president play-acts the role of nurturer-in-chief in the aftermath of the storm? Recall that John McCain disastrously suspended his “campaign” four years ago to sit around and look worried about the unfolding financial crisis, and while that alone did not cost him election, it did allow candidate Obama to both eat McCain’s lunch out on the hustings and appear as “no-drama Obama” to an electorate that knew virtually nothing about the nice young man, in contrast the panicky old codger whose ability to influence the course of events was precisely zero.

Now, thanks to Sandy, Obama’s a prisoner in his own White House, reduced to the role of First Suit as he poses for photo-ops and feigns concern about the plight of Snooki and others along the Jersey Shore, all the while itching to get out there and do the only thing he knows how to do even passably well: shout into a microphone about what a rotter the other guy is. Meanwhile Romney gets to hold the ball and run down the clock; no wonder the media lefties are shouting about changing the date of the election. Any port in a karmic storm, as the saying goes . . .

Wow.

 

[Zzoram]

by the way isn't chrysler chief a Republican?

I can't imagine why. Republicans would've let Chrysler get liquidated.

 

[The Lamonster]

Really wish I had an iPad so I could use the 270towin app on election night.

 

[electricpirate]

I was going to post about this. At this point it's clear that whatever Gallup is doing, they really are showing Romney winning in pretty much a landslide. Nobody believes this except Dean Chambers. I wish they'd do a specific state poll so that I could identify whether the problem is something national or something about their methodology.

One thing I don't understand, Gallup uses IVR, but they say they poll a fixed amount of 400 cellphones for every 1000 land lines. How does that work?

 

[Cheebo]

One thing I don't understand, Gallup uses IVR, but they say they poll a fixed amount of 400 cellphones for every 1000 land lines. How does that work?

They do live calls for just the cellphone ones is my under-standing.

 

[Aylinato]

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332062/suspended-non-reanimation-michael-walsh

Suspended Non-Reanimation



Wow.

Obama is actually the guy incharge of making sure everything is fine. Not the same damn fucking thing.