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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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V

vas_a_morir

Banned
I don't get too upset about polls. Nobody has ever polled me. And I'm sure there are a lot of people like me who don't answer the phone for unknown numbers or respond to pollsters. And if they DID poll me, I don't know if they'd consider me a 'likely voter' or not.
 
B

Bajan32

Member
Puddles said:
I registered in CA online about a week ago. Got my sample ballot in the mail a few days later.
Click to expand...

What? I did the online registration where u had to print out and mail it in. I did that back in the last day of September. I haven't gotten anything back yet.. No sample ballot or where my polling station is supposed to be :/
 
C

Clevinger

Member
vas_a_morir said:
I don't get too upset about polls. Nobody has ever polled me. And I'm sure there are a lot of people like me who don't answer the phone for unknown numbers or respond to pollsters. And if they DID poll me, I don't know if they'd consider me a 'likely voter' or not.
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It's pretty simple. If you answer yes to "Are you planning to vote" (and before that "are you registered?), you're a likely voter.
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Cheebo said:
They do live calls for just the cellphone ones is my under-standing.
Click to expand...

Okay that makes sense.

But I can still see the issue, they aren't polling 400 cellphone only households out of a thousand, they are picking some set amount of cellphones exclusively, and those may or may not be cellphone only households. It does probably underestimate the cellphone only household representation, but by less than someone like Rasmussen might.
 
Squirrel Killer

Squirrel Killer

Member
pigeon said:
It absolutely matters -- because it affects the solution.
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I'm all for looking at the narrative for the "why" of why non-voters don't vote to help find solutions for raising turnout, but in the end, I just want the "what" that will get them to turnout. Since the data is inconclusive that weekend/holiday voting will increase turnout, I feel we should look to 1) don't change for change's sake, 2) get conclusive data, and 3) look for other ways to increase turnout in the meantime.
 
C

Concept17

Member
Got into an argument with a friend last night.

He wants less goverment, thinks we should privatize everything, not help the poor, healthcare should stay the same, and compared Obama to Stalin. He then bet me 500$ that Obama would lose the election. (yes hes from the south)

I heartily agreed on the bet. Hopefully he has 500$ on hand.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Effect said:
They canceled the early voting the weekend right before the election. That Sunday a lot of African American voters would vote after church. The primary reason why that was canceled I think as well since that was suppose to be well known in Flordia. Really glad people are taking advantage of the early voting instead.
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Oh, I'm well aware of Rick Scott's machinations and his motives behind them. We can't get rid of him soon enough.

speculawyer said:
Romney is a Jackhole. Previously I would have blamed this on over-eager campaign staffer flaks. But Romney could stop this . . . if he chose to do so.

http://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/bogus-jeep-china-ad-romney-draws-fire-obama-203642902.html

Maddow had a good point last night . . . she pointed out that his TVs started with a blatant line (falsely attributing a McCain quote to Obama) and appears to be ending with a blatant line.
Click to expand...
Funny how the right seems to forget that Chrysler was owned by Daimler, a German company, before the whole US auto industry came crashing down. They make it seem like Chrysler being sold to Fiat was some appalling move.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Concept17 said:
Got into an argument with a friend last night.

He wants less goverment, thinks we should privatize everything, not help the poor, healthcare should stay the same, and compared Obama to Stalin. He then bet me 500$ that Obama would lose the election. (yes hes from the south)

I heartily agreed on the bet. Hopefully he has 500$ on hand.
Click to expand...
You're not going to win the bet because according to him Obama stole the election.
 
C

Concept17

Member
RustyNails said:
You're not going to win the bet because according to him Obama stole the election.
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Yeah he already argued that point to me. So I'm not expecting any money. I was giving him facts about the things Obama has done, and he just kept saying "yeah thats what they want you to believe". By the end of our argument all I had left for him was laughter.
 
J

JesseZao

Member
electricpirate said:
One thing I don't understand, Gallup uses IVR, but they say they poll a fixed amount of 400 cellphones for every 1000 land lines. How does that work?
Click to expand...

I thought they were doing 50/50 now. Probably just have their people call both and when one hits 50%, they stop calling those types of phones?

Cheebo said:
They do live calls for just the cellphone ones is my under-standing.
Click to expand...

They don't use robotcalls.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
Another piece of crap CEO sent a threatening warning email about Obama in Wisconsin

"The tax rate we pay is not 17%, as Warren Buffett would have you believe; with state taxes it is roughly 45%. President Obama has announced that our planned tax rate would increase to roughly 65%, reducing our after tax income by 36% and dramatically reducing, if not eliminating, your and my RSP contributions."
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Guy's a trustee for the richest village in Wisconsin, River Hills, and he's also on the board for the college I went to.

Also, according to that link it may be very much illegal in Wisconsin for him to have done that:

State law may prohibit email such as the one White sent to employees. The law states: "No employer or agent of an employer may distribute to any employee printed matter containing any threat, notice or information that if a particular ticket of a political party or organization or candidate is elected or any referendum question is adopted or rejected, work in the employer's place or establishment will cease, in whole or in part, or the place or establishment will be closed, or the salaries or wages of the employees will be reduced, or other threats intended to influence the political opinions or actions of the employees."
Click to expand...

Hope they do something about him, though I doubt it'll be much more than a slap on the wrist for a guy that loaded.

Also:

And while White was critical of President Barack Obama's tax policies, government records indicate his firm was awarded a grant of $26,471 in economic stimulus money under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.
Click to expand...
 
P

platypotamus

Member
Squirrel Killer said:
If we're interested in increasing turnout, it doesn't really matter whether the reason non-voters have for not voting is mandatory or option, they're still not voting. I think long polling hours at efficient polling locations on a weekday with readily available options for early voting will result in higher turnout than weekend/holiday voting with readily available options for early voting.


To be candid, the GAO doesn't say weekend voting "depresses" turnout, it merely says it's inconclusive, and that weekend voting would be more expensive and more difficult to run.
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Manmademan said:
Pretty Sure I'm Not.



The NFL absolutely crushes the NCAA in terms of popularity among US residents by nearly 20%.

And of those 52% or so who are actually fans to ANY extent (vs. those that don't give a shit about it) only 22% would even be concerned if there was a conflict. Those who watch "a little bit" or virtually not at all wouldn't care. That's about...oh, 80% of the country.




Daylight savings time was standard for decades- until they moved it. people got over it.



I'm not opposed to making tuesday a federal holiday, but the conservative argument is that more federal holidays costs business money. The saturday option alleviates that.
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eBay Huckster said:
just make the election itself two goddamn weeks long, full election-day hours and all

no need to restrict it to one day or one weekend if you're trying to maximize turnout and minimize confusion
Click to expand...

BertramCooper said:
But here's the most telling stat.



And those who aren't watching football are almost certainly doing something that's far preferable to voting.
Click to expand...

Rocket Scientist said:
Problem. Fucking. Solved.
Click to expand...

Dax01 said:
I think you're overestimating the effects of such tactics, just like you overestimate your "orderly transition" reasoning for the EC.

Or we could just do this.
Click to expand...

Squirrel Killer said:
I'm all for looking at the narrative for the "why" of why non-voters don't vote to help find solutions for raising turnout, but in the end, I just want the "what" that will get them to turnout. Since the data is inconclusive that weekend/holiday voting will increase turnout, I feel we should look to 1) don't change for change's sake, 2) get conclusive data, and 3) look for other ways to increase turnout in the meantime.
Click to expand...

VOTE BY MAIL VOTE BY MAIL VOTE BY MAIL VOTE BY MAIL VOTE BY MAIL
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Tim-E said:
The National Review is absolute trash. We shouldn't even give their stories attention.
Click to expand...

Pretty much...

It's another case of false equivalencies, and the apparent closing of the conservative mind (not all conservatives, of course). Surveying disaster zones, coordinating relief, and being the "nurturer-in-chief" are actually roles of the presidency. It's not an act for votes, it's a part of the job. IMO the right has miscalculated for years in this line of attack on Obama. The focus on framing Obama as a shameless politician who doesn't give a shit about people hasn't worked; people like him personally, know he cares about people, etc. And yet conservatives have tried this shit for 4 years now. Same thing happened with Bush; people may have disliked his policies, but he remained relatively popular in terms of personal favorables.

The better attack was always "Obama is a nice guy but is just over his head."
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
All the local NJ/NY media is saying Romney cancelled his rallies for "relief events" today. Then back to Brian Thompson for shots of him crying on the boardwalk.
 
H

Hellsing321

Member
Y2Kev said:
All the local NJ/NY media is saying Romney cancelled his rallies for "relief events" today. Then back to Brian Thompson for shots of him crying on the boardwalk.
Click to expand...

Did he receive some blowback for such a cold cynical "relief events"? Thats actually pretty shocking.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
I have come to realize that Chris Christie could have single-handedly sunk Obama's re-election bid today. But didn't. Thank God we didn't have Jan Brewer, Snu snu or Bobby Jindal in NJ.

Edit: Diablos and cartoon should be thanking their lucky stars this didn't go horribly wrong.
 
G

gcubed

Member
RustyNails said:
I have come to realize that Chris Christie could have single-handedly sunk Obama's re-election bid today. But didn't. Thank God we didn't have Jan Brewer, Snu snu or Bobby Jindal in NJ.
Click to expand...

The shores of New Jersey are devastated, you don't play politics on that. I dont think Jindal would have either.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Hey, remember that Romney bundler who spread a bunch of Sandy rumors on Twitter?

buzzfeed said:
What @comfortablysmug didn’t count on, apparently, was losing that anonymity. Based on photos he censored and posted to the account but I found unedited elsewhere, @comfortablysmug is Shashank Tripathi, a hedge-fund analyst and the campaign manager of Christopher R. Wight, this year’s Republican candidate for the U.S. House from New York’s 12th congressional district.
Click to expand...

http://gofwd.tumblr.com/post/34640321762/shashank-tripathi-last-nights-twitter-villain

GOP campaign manager.

Buzzfeed seems really personally angry about this.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
RustyNails said:
I have come to realize that Chris Christie could have single-handedly sunk Obama's re-election bid today. But didn't. Thank God we didn't have Jan Brewer, Snu snu or Bobby Jindal in NJ.

Edit: Diablos and cartoon should be thanking their lucky stars this didn't go horribly wrong.
Click to expand...

Eh how so? There's not much he could have said to sink anything, given Obama's quick responses (even calling Christie at midnight, and having FEMA respond to his request by 2AM).

He's in a blue state. There's no way he can play politics with this
 
F

Father_Brain

Banned
Ah, conservative state poll deniers.

Sean M. Davis said:
To review: In just the last 4 years, state polls have incorrectly called races in IN, NC, NV, and CO. But don't worry: they're never wrong.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the strawman, Sean, but no one disputes that state polls have called individual races wrongly in the past. The problem is that they've never been as wrong across the board, in the same direction, as they would need to be for Romney to win at this point.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
gcubed said:
The shores of New Jersey are devastated, you don't play politics on that. I dont think Jindal would have either.
Click to expand...

Yeah but if he was a cold, calculating sonofabitch, he could've stonewalled federal government's efforts with disaster relief then go on air and cry about Obama's mis-handling of the crisis. This is American politics, where anything goes.
 
L

Lambtron

Unconfirmed Member
Tim-E said:
The National Review is absolute trash. We shouldn't even give their stories attention.
Click to expand...
But there was this gem in the comments section:

And, because the perception of Obama is fixed, the trajectory of this race is also fixed. He will not get more than 48.5% of the popular vote. No way, no how.
Click to expand...
Oh this is gonna be good.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Puddles said:
Any of you guys with idiot facebook friends, PM me for my facebook info and add me. I'll be happy to reduce them to babbling incoherence.
Click to expand...

This is a really great offer. I'm considering luring one of my Facebook friends into a trap with it.

Edit: Hey, I just logged onto Facebook and he has posted this image on my wall:
xunjW.jpg
Click to expand...
 
G

gcubed

Member
RustyNails said:
Yeah but if he was a cold, calculating sonofabitch, he could've stonewalled federal government's efforts with disaster relief then go on air and cry about Obama's mis-handling of the crisis. This is American politics, where anything goes.
Click to expand...

meh, as PD said above... you're a bit TOO cynical here. Hell, I'm not even that cynical about politicians
 
T

TiVo

Member
Obama did NOT say "God bless America" after his Red Cross appearance.
Damn Islamist, Communist Socialist.

P.S. Am I the only one that wants to sniff S.E Cupp's bum?
 
R

RDreamer

Member
RustyNails said:
Yeah but if he was a cold, calculating sonofabitch, he could've stonewalled federal government's efforts with disaster relief then go on air and cry about Obama's mis-handling of the crisis. This is American politics, where anything goes.
Click to expand...

And what does Christie even gain from this? He gains most from having the recovery from this go really really well, and Obama winning the presidency. An Obama win means he can run in 2016. A good recovery makes him look good, and working with a democratic president makes him look moderate. It's something he can point to in a few years. He gains absolutely fuck all from throwing Obama under the bus. He'd risk pissing off a lot of people both in his state and out if he did.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
gcubed said:
meh, as PD said above... you're a bit TOO cynical here. Hell, I'm not even that cynical about politicians
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RDreamer said:
And what does Christie even gain from this? He gains most from having the recovery from this go really really well, and Obama winning the presidency. An Obama win means he can run in 2016. A good recovery makes him look good, and working with a democratic president makes him look moderate. It's something he can point to in a few years. He gains absolutely fuck all from throwing Obama under the bus. He'd risk pissing off a lot of people both in his state and out if he did.
Click to expand...

Just alluding to the possibility that it could have happened. He would've been rewarded for sure in Romney's administration.
 
A

andthebeatgoeson

Junior Member
RustyNails said:
Yeah but if he was a cold, calculating sonofabitch, he could've stonewalled federal government's efforts with disaster relief then go on air and cry about Obama's mis-handling of the crisis. This is American politics, where anything goes.
Click to expand...

No matter how much Christie rubs me the wrong way, I generally believe he has the state's best interest in mind when governing. That type of shit wouldn't fly and he could potentially kill his momentum.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Father_Brain said:
Ah, conservative state poll deniers.



Thanks for the strawman, Sean, but no one disputes that state polls have called individual races wrongly in the past. The problem is that they've never been as wrong across the board, in the same direction, as they would need to be for Romney to win at this point.
Click to expand...
Funny he says that considering the polls had Ken Buck (R) and Sharron Angle (R) winning in 2010 (they lost), and McCain (R) winning in NC and IN in 2008 (he lost).

If anything that seems to imply the opposite of what he's saying...
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Nate Silver is burning down Pharos Research on twitter right now. Says they failed to answer such basic questions as "who does your calling."

Pharos produced a set of reasonably pro-Democratic polls recently -- even in Florida, +3 in Ohio. I think one or two got mentioned here. O'Keefe trolling 538? They have the kind of terrible web design that just screams movement conservative.

Also, SurveyUSA just showed Obama down by 8 in Georgia -- same margin as 2008.
 
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