One week from today, the Boston Heralds front page will either read Obama Pulls Out Victory Or Romney Wins. (Actually, given that this is the Herald the headline will be something clever like, Hes Barack In Charge! or Sweet Mitt-ory!)
I predict the latter. One week from today, Mitt wins.
Ill even go a step farther. Ill ask the question poll watchers across America are thinking but afraid to ask: Is this election over?
If your source of news is MSNBC or the Boston Globe-Democrat, obviously not. If anything, you think President Obama is on the verge of a massive sweep from North Carolina to Nevada.
But if youve been watching the polls and the campaigns at all objectively, youre starting to see a picture develop. One where Romneys the winner well before bedtime.
I believe were on the verge of a solid Romney win for two reasons. One is the objective evidence. The other is the ugly desperation of the Obama campaign in its final days.
First the numbers. And lets start with the big one: Before Gallup suspended polling due to Hurricane Sandy, Mitt Romney was at or above 50 percent among likely voters for 14 consecutive days. No candidate above 50 percent at this point has ever lost the presidential race.
Ever.
The president, on the other hand, has peaked at 47 percent. The Battleground Poll model shows Obama losing 52 percent to 47 percent. Rasmussen daily tracking has Obama losing 49 percent to 47 percent. Pew has him tied: 47 percent to 47 percent. But more important, all the polls show Obama sliding or stuck. None show any upward movement.
Obama supporters are quick to tell you the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day. Two things: a) thats what candidates who are behind always say; b) this is election day.
Thanks to early voting, millions of votes have already been cast. Four years ago on this day Halloweek Gallup released a poll of folks whod already voted and found Obama was beating John McCain by 15 points.
This year? Hes losing to Mitt Romney 52 percent to 45 percent a set swing of 22 points. The wrong way.
But who cares if Obama loses the popular vote (and he will, by the way)? All that matters is winning the Electoral College vote in the swing states! Thats Obamas path to victory!
OK. But what is a swing state? Forget Virginia and Ohio. Obamas lost so much ground hes been forced to send Joe Biden to Pennsylvania and Bill Clinton to Minnesota a state so blue Ronald Reagan never carried it.
The president, on the other hand, is only up by 6 among the loony-left granola-crunchers of Oregon.
Those are the numbers. The campaign Obamas running looks even worse.
Between desperate, last-second proposals for a Secretary of Business and embarrassing ads comparing voting for Obama to a girl losing her virginity, you can smell the desperation from the Obama camp.
These are the juvenile stunts of a second-tier congressional race, not the campaign of an incumbent president. Then again, has any other president posted a picture of his opponent in a dunce cap? Or called his opponent a bullsh***er on the record? Obamas done both.
The Obama campaign is angry, its negative and it acts like to quote Bill Clinton its feelings are hurt. In a word: Losing.
More and more people sense it. Ben Domenech wrote at RealClearPoli tics.com about an undertow that seems to be pulling Obamas support away. Its not that Obamas supporters have turned on him. Theyve just abandoned him. Theyve drifted away. Like so many of us, theyre just done with Obama.
If Im wrong, Im counting on you to mock me for it mercilessly next Wednesday. But Im not wrong.
And isnt it interesting how many people already seem to know it.
