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[SpeedySwaf]

PPP Iowa 50-45 Owebama
PPP Wisconson 51-46 Obummer

But that Iowa newspaper endorsed Romney! No way Obama can be that high!

 

[Cheebo]

David Axelrod says he'll shave off his mustache live on Morning Joe if Obama loses PA or MI.

 

[Brinbe]

Actually, Mitt making a play for PA/MI makes sense now since that's his only hope. They've probably given up on Ohio at this point. I mean he's not coming back from 4-5 points down with six days left and being down in early voting.

This is exactly a McCain 08 late-game redux.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Current plans have Obama going to Madison, WI tomorrow to restart campaigning.

 

[Y2Kev]

Okay, desperation has got to be setting in at Obama HQ after seeing these latest Florida, Virginia, and now Michigan polls. Not surprising he's gone into hiding while Mitt is collecting food for the victims in Ohio.

 

[gcubed]

I can't remember if I was confident in 2008 or still a bit nervous until it was official. The ONLY thing that bothers me about this election is some of the national polls

 

[polyh3dron]

David Axelrod says he'll shave off his mustache live on Morning Joe if Obama loses PA or MI.

And if Obama wins FL or NC, Scarborough grows a mustache.

 

[Oblivion]

PPP Pennsylvania 53 47 Romney

Well, kiddies?

Spoiler

probably should point out this is not one of them fancy ACTUAL polls

 

[TacticalFox88]

God I wonder how it must feel for Romneys advisors? I mean they have to know that deep down they know mitt is going to lose badly so hard.

 

[maximum360]

Gallop?

Ha. I was thinking the same thing.

 

[thefro]

PPP polls = Game over yeaaaaah!

Is there a reason - demographic or otherwise - why Indiana is solidly Republican while the rest of the Midwest is blue/purple?

Only one big city (Indianapolis), not multiple big ones like Ohio or PA or a massive city like Chicago to offset the rural voters in the southern part of the state.

Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa are far enough north to escape the south. Southern Indiana is like a northern extension of Kentucky in many ways (same with Ohio & Illinois).

Indiana democrats have to rely on huge turnout in Gary (Chicago surburb with a large African-American population) and Bloomington (liberal college town but much smaller than Madison, WI), plus not losing by big margins everywhere else. Obama won Hamilton County, the biggest Indianapolis exurb by some miracle last time (which is completely full of Lugar Republicans that will probably vote big for Romney).

 

[maximum360]

Already posted.

Can't wait for CNN to call it a dead heat today!

I expect them to say "Obama's lead is marginal and barely outside the margin of error. The the polls are tightening and it's almost a dead heat."

 

[witness]

This shit is over. Only question is by how much? Desperate times will really start kicking in now through the weekend for Romney.

What's going on in Colorado? Any polls expected?

 

[David Incorporated Esq.]

Only one big city (Indianapolis), not multiple big ones like Ohio or PA or a massive city like Chicago to offset the rural voters in the southern part of the state.

Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa are far enough north to escape the south. Southern Indiana is like a northern extension of Kentucky in many ways (same with Ohio & Illinois).

Indiana democrats have to rely on huge turnout in Gary (Chicago surburb with a large African-American population) and Bloomington (liberal college town but much smaller than Madison, WI), plus not losing by big margins everywhere else. Obama won Hamilton County, the biggest Indianapolis exurb by some miracle last time (which is completely full of Lugar Republicans that will probably vote big for Romney).

I'm in Southern Indiana for work and it is a bad place.

Beautiful country and people who are genuinely nice, but at the same time creepy, sad, and backwards.

 

[Half and half]

David Axelrod says he'll shave off his mustache live on Morning Joe if Obama loses PA or MI.

Ugh...if he were really confident, he'd offer to shave his entire head.

 

[Frank the Great]

PPP Iowa 50-45 Owebama
PPP Wisconson 51-46 Obummer

Basically the same margins that you'd expect given a blind guess of the states vs. the spreads in the other swing states.

so IA and WI are essentially tied. great news for romney; his supporters' enthusiasm, and superior ground game, gives him the edge. plus ppp always oversamples democrats.

 

[gcubed]

Excellent new polls. This shit is over. Only question is by how much? Desperate times will really start kicking in now through the weekend for Romney.

Going into PA and MI is the GOP death march.

 

[gkryhewy]

Yup they have shuttle buses between media and Springfield . I live right where it stopped (that run is through a wooded area).

You're in the city right? I was contemplating staying at a friends house down there and going to one of the open bars all night.

To bring it full circle, not much impact in Philly area 2 days out let alone 7.

Yeah, we live a few blocks from where you work, actually.

 

[Farmboy]

Ugh...if he were really confident, he'd offer to shave his entire head.

He basically did!

 

[The Librarian]

 

[Bowdz]

PPP Iowa 50-45 Owebama
PPP Wisconson 51-46 Obummer

Basically the same margins that you'd expect given a blind guess of the states vs. the spreads in the other swing states.

 

[Y2Kev]

Was Kerry ever up like this?

 

[Clevinger]

Wow, good polling all around. My only worry now is Rove's 23 million ad buy, but seeing how little effect he and the other PACs have had throughout this election, it almost seems like wasted money.

Oh, and the popular vote.

 

[Clevinger]

By the way, Sam Wang's site is down.

 

[Cheebo]

Was Kerry ever up like this?

Not like this, but he was up in some places he lost but not by a large amount. 538 says the polling average for Ohio the week before the election was Kerry by .8%.

 

[RDreamer]

Wow, good polling all around. My only worry now is Rove's 23 million ad buy, but seeing how little effect he and the other PACs have had throughout this election, it almost seems like wasted money.

Oh, and the popular vote.

SuperPACs can't get as good of deals as the campaigns themselves, so it's not a huge deal. And the airwaves are already packed. Along with that, voters have already heard every argument under the sun. I doubt some SuperPAC ads at the last second will do much. I think ads do well in setting up a narrative for your opponent, but probably not as much for a closing deal after as many as we've already seen.

 

[Stinkles]

Wasn't he the guy who got fired from CNN for saying there was a Jewish conspiracy controlling the media?

edit: LOL, of course this dumb asshole is on Fox News now. Of course.

Neighbors in manhattan should just climb that building next door and take that crane down because it is dangerous. Also they should sandbag all the subway stations and go to Home Depot to fix 100 miles of boardwalk this week. They should also grow tetanus vaccines and administer them to each other. If my neighbors weren't so fucking lazy they'd already have reengineered the New Orleans levee system to withstand a forty foot storm surge.

 

[ErasureAcer]

By the way, Sam Wang's site is down.

He blew his load.

 

[norinrad]

Wow, good polling all around. My only worry now is Rove's 23 million ad buy, but seeing how little effect he and the other PACs have had throughout this election, it almost seems like wasted money.

Oh, and the popular vote.

 

[Stinkles]

This guy knows what's up
Mitt Romney set to win, maybe by a mile

Haha, I knew I recognized that guy:

During a debate on the Irish radio channel Newstalk on 28 May 2010, the future President of Ireland, Michael D. Higgins, accused Graham of indulging in "the radio of hysterical ignorance" and urged him to "be proud to be a decent American rather than being just a wanker whipping up fear."[19][20]
[edit]

 

[Mgoblue201]

Only one big city (Indianapolis), not multiple big ones like Ohio or PA or a massive city like Chicago to offset the rural voters in the southern part of the state.

Wisconsin/Minnesota/Iowa are far enough north to escape the south. Southern Indiana is like a northern extension of Kentucky in many ways (same with Ohio & Illinois).

Indiana democrats have to rely on huge turnout in Gary (Chicago surburb with a large African-American population) and Bloomington (liberal college town but much smaller than Madison, WI), plus not losing by big margins everywhere else. Obama won Hamilton County, the biggest Indianapolis exurb by some miracle last time (which is completely full of Lugar Republicans that will probably vote big for Romney).

I don't know if the rural element fully explains it. In 2004, Kerry barely won Marion County, even though it's the kind of place that should be a Democrat bastion, and couldn't even win St. Joseph. It seems to me that there is some sort of proclivity for voting Republican. Some parts of the state are more like Kentucky, as you said.

 

[TheHeretic]

SuperPACs can't get as good of deals as the campaigns themselves, so it's not a huge deal. And the airwaves are already packed. Along with that, voters have already heard every argument under the sun. I doubt some SuperPAC ads at the last second will do much. I think ads do well in setting up a narrative for your opponent, but probably not as much for a closing deal after as many as we've already seen.

I'd love to know if the ad flooding has actually done anything this election, because I don't think it has. Clearly the first debate has a hundred times the impact any of the advertising did (and it didn't cost much).

If I were running a campaign i'd just be doing heavy, heavy groundwork and stump speeches (and debate prep).

 

[ido]

By the way, Sam Wang's site is down.

Works for me.

 

[Incognito]

good ohio number from Q. however, obama faces a problem with the significant decline of support in virginia and florida along with narrowing in michigan. if those trends hold, obama wins ohio yet loses virginia, florida, and michigan romney could pull off an inside straight...

 

[ido]

good ohio number from Q. however, obama faces a problem with the significant decline of support in virginia and florida along with narrowing in michigan. if those trends hold, obama wins ohio yet loses virginia, florida, and michigan romney could pull off an inside straight...

Totally.

lol

 

[cartoon_soldier]

good ohio number from Q. however, obama faces a problem with the significant decline of support in virginia and florida along with narrowing in michigan. if those trends hold, obama wins ohio yet loses virginia, florida, and michigan romney could pull off an inside straight...

From Cook:

that Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, "which once looked like they were slipping more into the Romney orbit, have pulled back to essentially even-money contests."

The states have actually moved towards Obama...

actually I think you are just trolling, so fml.

 

[Frank the Great]

Incognito has been trolling this thread hard for weeks, you guys are just catching on?

 

[ezrarh]

It's a tough job to troll with these numbers coming out.

 

[bananas]

His tag is 'troll'.

ffs, people. Come on.

 

[Cheebo]

I miss the old Incognito before all he did was troll. He had some of the best insight on GAF in the 04, 06, and 08 elections.

 

[Oblivion]

http://i.imgur.com/8nTDW.gif

 

[Incognito]

I'd love to know if the ad flooding has actually done anything this election, because I don't think it has.

its the minimal effects conundrum: those most attentive to campaign information are least persuadable while those least attentive to campaign info are more persuadable. problem is that the least attentive are an increasingly small part of the electorate.

 

[gcubed]

He posted a penis

 

[Clevinger]

I miss the old Incognito before all he did was troll. He had some of the best insight on GAF in the 04, 06, and 08 elections.

Definitely. His trolls are fun though.

 

[The Librarian]

CS, Diablos, and PD – don't disappoint me this final week. Be creative.

 

[Plinko]

Going into PA and MI is the GOP death march.

I would argue that Obama will win Michigan by less than he will win PA this year.

 

[Fragamemnon]

I don't mind the trolling except from Cheebs/PD, who are just annoying. This election season has been so uneventful that it's understandable. None of the Sarah Palin/McCain instability that was the spice of 2008 or the real panic of 2004.

 

[Mgoblue201]

Not like this, but he was up in some places he lost but not by a large amount. 538 says the polling average for Ohio the week before the election was Kerry by .8%.

RCP shows a series of good polls for Bush down the stretch, with Kerry leading only one of them.

 

[bananas]

http://i.imgur.com/8nTDW.gif

I don't know why I laughed so hard.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Yeah, the Polling Averages over at Election Projection (heavily referenced in 2004 before we had wider aggregation) do not point to Kerry being up in Ohio at the end. I remember things being close but Bush being slightly ahead in the polls enough that everyone on DKos had to put their faith in the ground game in Ohio.