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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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Puddles

Banned
Headed to bed; when I wake up this shit will be six days away. My productivity is so low right now. I seriously cycle between 538, election.princeton.edu, 538, politico, and PoliGAF at least 1-2 times an hour.
 
ohio is a done deal. so is nevada. they're done. done done done.

obama is going to win virginia. he'll take new hampshire and iowa too, and probably colorado as well. not gonna say done on those yet, but he's close to winning those, than romney is to winning florida, which is getting better-looking (but not wholly winnable) for obama every day as we near the election.

the only two not along for the ride this time around is indiana, and nc (which is kinda like romney's wisconsin).

Sooooo what you're saying is Romney still has a chance....

YYYYEEEESSSSS!!

/Carrey
 

AniHawk

Member
I don't really see how Benghazi is an issue at all. So the Administration didn't officially call it a terrorist attack for a while, possibly due to conflicting intelligence and communication problems in the State Department? Why does it matter what it was called?

because obama is really not serious about terror you guys. he killed bin laden and all his men, but those people didn't really matter. i mean, when was the last time bin laden killed 3000 people? he's old news.
 
Waste of time.

Time to put them to bed again. Media is already making MI the new OH.

R/R's final push plan:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-ryan-to-begin-final-stretch-on-friday-with

The event, in the Cincinnati suburb of a must-win swing-state for the Romney campaign, will begin an 11-state tour lasting through election day to be called the "Romney-Ryan Real Recovery Road Rally," with nearly 100 surrogates breaking into groups to stump for the Republican ticket.

Wonder what O has gotten planned for the final 3-4 days?
 

AniHawk

Member
Sooooo what you're saying is Romney still has a chance....

YYYYEEEESSSSS!!

/Carrey

with ohio done, romney can flip new hampshire, iowa, virginia, and colorado, and still lose by 4 evs. it'll be 271-267 obama. he'd also need to get michigan, wisconsin, or pennsylvania somehow.

obama's going to win by a lot more than 4 evs. it's going to either be 303 or 332 at this rate.

it will be a late night a week from now, but we should know the results very soon.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Uh, guys. I hate to be a bad news bear, but you do realize Obama's getting ROCKED in Pennsylvania, right?

0.jpg
 
ohio is a done deal. so is nevada. they're done. done done done.

obama is going to win virginia. he'll take new hampshire and iowa too, and probably colorado as well. not gonna say done on those yet, but he's close to winning those, than romney is to winning florida, which is getting better-looking (but not wholly winnable) for obama every day as we near the election.

the only two not along for the ride this time around is indiana, and nc (which is kinda like romney's wisconsin).
We'll get NC.

You just gotta believe.

cartoon_soldier said:
Wonder what O has gotten planned for the final 3-4 days?
Being the president and cleaning up after Sandy.

Mitt is such a sideshow.
 

HylianTom

Banned
with ohio done, romney can flip new hampshire, iowa, virginia, and colorado, and still lose by 4 evs. it'll be 271-267 obama. he'd also need to get michigan, wisconsin, or pennsylvania somehow.

obama's going to win by a lot more than 4 evs. it's going to either be 303 or 332 at this rate.

it will be a late night a week from now, but we should know the results very soon.
Not asleep yet. This iPad by the bed and being able to come here within a moment's notice is making PoliGAF a bad, bad addiction. Gotta turn it off and resist the urge to pick it back up.

It'll be a late night for sure, assuming that the margins on these states are more like 2004 than 2008. But hopefully we should have enough states called by 12:00AM, ET to know..
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I don't really see how Benghazi is an issue at all. So the Administration didn't officially call it a terrorist attack for a while, possibly due to conflicting intelligence and communication problems in the State Department? Why does it matter what it was called?

because obama is really not serious about terror you guys. he killed bin laden and all his men, but those people didn't really matter. i mean, when was the last time bin laden killed 3000 people? he's old news.

I was having a very stupid discussion on FB with two random right wingers who kept insisting Bhengazi was both a huge deal and all 100% Obama's fault. Yet oddly enough he didn't deserve a shred of credit when it came to killing Bin Laden for some reason.
 
Latest EV numbers

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Republicans still leading Dems in CO early vote.

Dems now leading Republicans in FL early voting after in-person voting started

Dems leading EV in Maine too.

50% of 2008 votes already cast in NV. Dems leading 44.6 - 37.5

40% of 2008 votes total cast in NC. Dems lead 49-31 (less than 2008). Female - Male split is at 55-43 though. 66.6% white, rest AA or others.
 
Latest EV numbers

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2012.html

Republicans still leading Dems in CO early vote.

Dems now leading Republicans in FL early voting after in-person voting started

Dems leading EV in Maine too.

50% of 2008 votes already cast in NV. Dems leading 44.6 - 37.5

40% of 2008 votes total cast in NC. Dems lead 49-31 (less than 2008). Female - Male split is at 55-43 though. 66.6% white, rest AA or others.
One thing is that a good chunk of newly registered AAs put themselves down as independents, so the NC margin could be higher.

Maybe.
 
is Warren ok in MA now?

Yea.

Latest from Cook:
http://nationaljournal.com/columns/...lit-electoral-popular-vote-very-real-20121030

In addition to the 17 states (including D.C.) that have never been competitive, which total 201 electoral votes, I’ve added four states that have been in play, in varying degrees, where Obama now has a clear lead in credible, private surveys from long-standing professional polling firms calling landlines and cellphones (notwithstanding whatever the robo and Internet polling shows). The states are Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10).

Conversely, Romney is ahead in 23 states with a total of 191 electoral votes, 79 shy of 270. Florida, North Carolina and Virginia, which once looked like they were slipping more into the Romney orbit, have pulled back to essentially even-money contests.
 
That’s not how I see it:

Obama interferes with disaster response by visiting states in the wake of hurricane Sandy for photo ops and speeches. Police and other officials were then not able to focus on victims as they had to help provide logistics for his visit.

Meanwhile Romney stayed out of the way of the impacted areas while holding events to collect food and supplies to send to the victims.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2952625/posts

The salt is only a week away. I can almost taste it.
 

FyreWulff

Member
In Nebraska, Lee Terry(R) went from a +14 over John Ewing(D) to a +4 in the last two weeks. If every Democrat actually goes and votes for Ewing, you could see Nebraska flip one of it's seats.
 
RAND: Obama 49.8, Romney 45.7 O+4

tightened a bit again, but expected. Hopefully it starts to level off in a couple days and maintains over 3.
 

Ecotic

Member
I'm really enjoying the significance of this election a lot more than 2008. 2008 felt like such an unearned victory, just be the not-Bush party and wait for victory. This time they'll win on the strength of Obama's record, and winning the debate on the issues. The 2008 election was fun with Palin and all, but this victory will be a lot sweeter.
 
I was having a very stupid discussion on FB with two random right wingers who kept insisting Bhengazi was both a huge deal and all 100% Obama's fault. Yet oddly enough he didn't deserve a shred of credit when it came to killing Bin Laden for some reason.
their hate of Obama is preventing rational objective analysis.

At worse, some bureaucrats fucked up. It would be the Bureau of Diplomatic Security (DS) that is responsible the State Department's Libya threat assessment and decisions about security requirements. And yes, President is ultimately responsible. But do you blame Obama when your mail is late? They need to figure out what was done wrong & fix it.

But to paint it as some sort of intentional thing is just nonsensical and paranoid conspiracy theory.
 
their hate of Obama is preventing rational objective analysis.

At worse, some bureaucrats fucked up. It would be the Bureau of Diplomatic Security (DS) that is responsible the State Department's Libya threat assessment and decisions about security requirements. And yes, President is ultimately responsible. But do you blame Obama when your mail is late? They need to figure out what was done wrong & fix it.

But to paint it as some sort of intentional thing is just nonsensical and paranoid conspiracy theory.

So, worse than Watergate and 9/11 put together, got it.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
their hate of Obama is preventing rational objective analysis.

At worse, some bureaucrats fucked up. It would be the Bureau of Diplomatic Security (DS) that is responsible the State Department's Libya threat assessment and decisions about security requirements. And yes, President is ultimately responsible. But do you blame Obama when your mail is late? They need to figure out what was done wrong & fix it.

But to paint it as some sort of intentional thing is just nonsensical and paranoid conspiracy theory.

They were saying that Obama intentionally didn't send help to the Embassy and was willing to accept those people's death as collateral damage because it ruined his image as someone who "tamed the muslim fanatics".

So, worse than Watergate and 9/11 put together, got it.

Also amusingly enough, when asked if Bush deserved any blame for 9/11, they decided to take responsibility
by blaming it on Clinton.
 

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
I don't really see how Benghazi is an issue at all. So the Administration didn't officially call it a terrorist attack for a while, possibly due to conflicting intelligence and communication problems in the State Department? Why does it matter what it was called?

As far as I can tell they're trying to show that Obama is soft on terror and blamed the problem on the anti-Islamic video (i.e. they're saying he blamed America). Even as a follower of politics I can't figure out what exactly the deal is.

BTW, a 5% lead with 3% MoE is 95% to win. In other words, not even Wolf can call it tied!

What about the other 5%

DEAD HEAT
 
They were saying that Obama intentionally didn't send help to the Embassy and was willing to accept those people's death as collateral damage because it ruined his image as someone who "tamed the muslim fanatics".

I keep re-reading that sentence and I can't make logical sense of it.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
Holy shit. Tammy Duckworth is beating that scumbag tea bagger Joe Walsh by FOURTEEN points.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I keep re-reading that sentence and I can't make logical sense of it.

Yup.

At best, what I THINK they were trying to say was that Obama thought he could stop muslim fanatics just by being Obama (the Messiah, if you will). When these same fanatics started causing trouble, this ended up ruining the image that Obama crafted of himself and hence why he was blaming the violence on that stupid movie, when the real issue is that Obama's disastrous foreign policy to blame.


...fuck I dunno, I tried.
 

Zzoram

Member
As far as I can tell they're trying to show that Obama is soft on terror and blamed the problem on the anti-Islamic video (i.e. they're saying he blamed America). Even as a follower of politics I can't figure out what exactly the deal is.

I have no idea how anyone could think Obama is soft on terrorists. He's gunned after them harder than even Bush did. Obama has ordered tons of drone strikes violating Pakistani air space and even ordered that Marine hit on Osama Bin Laden beside the Pakistani Military Academy without telling Pakistan.

Bush stopped pursuing the terrorists the second he saw an opportunity to trick the world into going into Iraq, despite Iraq being completely unrelated to terrorists. Bush is the one who decided it wasn't worth the effort to pursue Osama Bin Laden or even finish off the Taliban.
 
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