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[Brinbe]

The 365-173 blowout of Obama vs McCain, how huge a win was that in view of history? It seemed like a ridiculous blowout to me, to get more than double the Electoral Votes.

Well, it's not close to the likes of what Reagan, Nixon, FDR won with but it's p. substantial when you consider how divided the electorate is right now compared to back then. I mean he pushed on and won in Indiana, NC, VA, and made it close in Missouri. Definitely did a lot to expand the map.

I think we could see it likely happen again in a few cycles when demographics become even more favorable in the south. I look forward to the day when Texas finally becomes purple.

 

[Incognito]

shameful stuff, not polling a battleground over some misplaced optimism

Quinnipiac was a bit of an outlier in Florida, seeing a 9-point Obama lead before the debates; it's down to 1. Virginia has moved from a 5-point race to a 2-point race. But if Obama wins either one of those, and no blue state falls away, he wins the election. And Quinnipiac doesn't see any historical blue state slipping away.

"We haven't bothered with Pennsylvania in these last polls," says Maurice Carroll, director of the polling institute. "It's in the bag for Obama."

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2...ania_is_obama_s.html?tid=sm_tw_button_toolbar

 

[3rdman]

By the way, Sam Wang's site is down.

I read this as "Sam's Wang is down" LOL

 

[Mac_Lane]

The 365-173 blowout of Obama vs McCain, how huge a win was that in view of history? It seemed like a ridiculous blowout to me, to get more than double the Electoral Votes.

As was said above, check Reagan-Mondale.

McGovern-Nixon is also a huge blowout. As is Johnson-Goldwater.

But given the current ultrapolarization of American politics, I wouldn't count on it happening again in a near future.

 

[Father_Brain]

Um, okay.

Hearing from a smart, plugged-in, independent-minded Ohio politico who's deeply skeptical of polls showing this more than a 1-pt race. FWIW.

 

[BertramCooper]

Um, okay.

I was sitting in front of Michigan in homeroom today, and it whispered in my ear that it's actually leaning Republican.

 

[Mgoblue201]

I posted about this yesterday. It's a feedback loop. Media complaints about Nate -> Nate gets more traffic -> Spillover to other sites like Sam Wang, who has recently commented that his hits are through the roof -> media complains more about Nate -> Nate gets more traffic

The media should just IGNORE that. They ignore reality on every other subject. Why do they have to start addressing it now?

Krugman had an interesting theory that Silver and Wang challenged the media's ability to leverage inside scoops as game changers to generate ratings and views, which is negated if we can simply look at numbers to determine the state of the race. Typical Republican denunciation of anything favoring Democrats and the challenge to pundit wisdom probably also had something to do with it.

Yeah no. They will see it as a message that they need to go further to the right, that their attempts at obstruction weren't effective enough and they need to try harder.

There are very few Republican moderates left, but there is a pitched battle between two elements of the party. If Obama wins, then I'm hoping that the old party establishment can regain control. During the debt ceiling negotiations, John Boehner actually came across as one of the sane Republicans. He may still try to resist most of Obama's proposals, but at least he's pragmatic and can be reasoned with.

The 365-173 blowout of Obama vs McCain, how huge a win was that in view of history? It seemed like a ridiculous blowout to me, to get more than double the Electoral Votes.

Clinton got 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996. George HW got 426 in 1988. You can keep going back with Reagan, Nixon, LBJ, Eisenhower. Most elections are EV blowouts, because it doesn't take much to win. Kennedy won the PV by 0.2% yet won the EV by more than 80.

 

[gcubed]

Um, okay.

I feel it!

 

[Paches]

Um, okay.

Is he running a secret poll or is that what his "gut" says?

 

[Incognito]

Clinton got 370 in 1992 and 379 in 1996. George HW got 426 in 1988. You can keep going back with Reagan, Nixon, LBJ, Eisenhower. Most elections are EV blowouts, because it doesn't take much to win. Kennedy won the PV by 0.2% yet won the EV by more than 80.

dat magnifier effect!

 

[RustyNails]

BTW, a 5% lead with 3% MoE is 95% to win. In other words, not even Wolf can call it tied!

 

[RDreamer]

Found a handy "box score" for every election:

http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/scores.html#1789

Wow, John Quincy Adams lost both the popular vote and the electoral vote but still won presidency?

We've had a lot of weird anomalies over the years that I always seem to forget about.

 

[gcubed]

Wow, John Quincy Adams lost both the popular vote and the electoral vote but still won presidency?

We've had a lot of weird anomalies over the years that I always seem to forget about.

yeah, there was a minimum back then for the EV in order to be president

 

[Deleted member 47027]

1988 was a pretty serious blowout with regards to the EV.

 

[Incognito]

Wow, John Quincy Adams lost both the popular vote and the electoral vote but still won presidency?

yep, not even the 12th amendment could save andrew jackson from adam's winning by adroitly gaining the support of henry ford clay. jackson spent the next 4 years on a warpath to defeat adam's which precipitated the next big change in the nomination contest...

*this moment in history brought to you by your favorite troll

 

[madp]

So I was just given the offer to be the presiding judge for the board of elections at my local precinct on election day. Anyone have any experience with this sort of thing? I applied on a whim but didn't actually expect to receive the offer. I have a training session tomorrow, and I suppose I'll be out the entirety of election day if I make a good impression and they still want me.

 

[darkside31337]

yeah, there was a minimum back then for the EV in order to be president

Still is today.

269-269 tie still in play!

 

[pigeon]

Quinnipiac's last Ohio poll was also +5 11 days ago. Their last Virginia poll was +5 on 10/9; Florida, +9 In Septembr. You probably want to shade those polls by a point or two, but they're still good news for Obama.

I'm kind of hoping that Nate is wrong because the polls are systematically wrong -- and undercounting Dem support. Now that would be an entertaining night.

I also love that new Unskewed article. You can feel the desperation coming off him as he sees that Romney's going to lose and Dean Chambers will vanish into obscurity again.

 

[Officerrob]

So I was just given the offer to be the presiding judge for the board of elections at my local precinct on election day. Anyone have any experience with this sort of thing? I applied on a whim but didn't actually expect to receive the offer. I have a training session tomorrow, and I suppose I'll be out the entirety of election day if I make a good impression and they still want me.

What state do you live in?

 

[bananas]

If Obama is re-elected it will only be the second time in U.S. history that we had three consecutive presidents that have served been elected to two terms.

The first time was 1801-1825 with Jefferson, Madison, and Monroe.

 

[Incognito]

So I was just given the offer to be the presiding judge for the board of elections at my local precinct on election day. Anyone have any experience with this sort of thing? I applied on a whim but didn't actually expect to receive the offer. I have a training session tomorrow, and I suppose I'll be out the entirety of election day if I make a good impression and they still want me.

your job is just to ensure no shenanigans take place at the poll you are working at. there will also be a presiding judge from the other party there, too. you'll also report back data to your local precinct head every hour when the voter rolls are updated.

 

[explodet]

Didn't Romney have a running mate? Whatever happened to that guy?

 

[RDreamer]

Bwahahaha, just heard the republican guy in the office behind me say something like "...unless both Minnesota and Wisconsin can turn red this year..."

Don't know what came before that since I wasn't paying attention, but I think he's getting resigned to his fate.

 

[BertramCooper]

Didn't Romney have a running mate? Whatever happened to that guy?

He's busy washing cans of soup from yesterday's "relief event."

 

[Y2Kev]

There are quite a few powerful GOP donors - David Koch, for instance - who are quite a bit more liberal than the current GOP establishment on social issues. I don't think we'll see the GOP embrace issues like same-sex marriage, but I think we'll at least see them soften their rhetoric on them.

I do think the GOP will soon realize that the demographics of the country are turning against them. Conservatism in the U.S. always drags its feet, but it manages to progress at the slowest possible rate to remain relevant.

Demographics are 4 more years in our favor after 2008 and yet the GOP is more in it than last time. I think the demographic swing is probably overstated. They have like 20 years before they have to worry given the overactivity of racist white old people (chief Romney demo) and their eagerness to vote.

 

[Incognito]

Bwahahaha, just heard the republican guy in the office behind me say something like "...unless both Minnesota and Wisconsin can turn red this year..."

Don't know what came before that since I wasn't paying attention, but I think he's getting resigned to his fate.

at least he's being realistic. down here in texas, the mood is positively upbeat about a romney win. going to be great next tuesday evening..

 

[mckmas8808]

Hmm, I'm not entirely against the idea of a privatized response team. It could be by a termed exclusive contract with a huge amount of oversight and severe repercussions.

Of course there would have to be emergency contingencies in place.

I need to reiterate that this would have to be an extremely strict contract. No fucking around when it comes to this.

But where would the money come from?

 

[HylianTom]

The 270towin iPad app just updated - now it'll color-in the map as the states are called on next Tuesday night. Pretty neat! I hope it does a little ding or sound effect as each state is called.

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

There are quite a few powerful GOP donors - David Koch, for instance - who are quite a bit more liberal than the current GOP establishment on social issues. I don't think we'll see the GOP embrace issues like same-sex marriage, but I think we'll at least see them soften their rhetoric on them.

I do think the GOP will soon realize that the demographics of the country are turning against them. Conservatism in the U.S. always drags its feet, but it manages to progress at the slowest possible rate to remain relevant.

The problem with the current GOP is that for the last 4 years no moderating force has existed to pull back on the reins. Usually this has been the business community that likes to maintain the status quo while pushing its pet projects. But since the Dems wanted to cut into their profit margins with Dodd-Frank, they let the Republicans run wild. If Obama gets reelected, then I expect the business community to fold and try to be the stick to get Republicans working again. Just recently a group of CEOs have been calling for a grand bargain with some short term stimulus. The GOP might fear its base, but they definitely don't want to piss off their sugar daddies.

 

[madp]

What state do you live in?

Ohio.

your job is just to ensure no shenanigans take place at the poll you are working at. there will also be a presiding judge from the other party there, too. you'll also report back data to your local precinct head every hour when the voter rolls are updated.

Someone from the other party? That's going to be interesting, because I'm actually a registered Republican due to it being mandatory for a few local elections jobs I'd tried to get in the past year. I guess I'm going to have to pretend to be a Romney supporter for the day, or at least remain silent on political matters.

Everything else sounds in line with what I expected to to in the position. I'm basically there to ensure that things remain orderly and legal. I'm not going to have to enforce any of Husted's bullshit, right?

 

[electricpirate]

Demographics are 4 more years in our favor after 2008 and yet the GOP is more in it than last time. I think the demographic swing is probably overstated. They have like 20 years before they have to worry given the overactivity of racist white old people (chief Romney demo) and their eagerness to vote.

If obama goes over 300 EVs but the popular vote is tied, then it's good evidence that the changing demographics in swing states made a big impact IMO.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Demographics are 4 more years in our favor after 2008 and yet the GOP is more in it than last time. I think the demographic swing is probably overstated. They have like 20 years before they have to worry given the overactivity of racist white old people (chief Romney demo) and their eagerness to vote.

The thing is, even with sky-high enthusiasm of their base, they are still scraping to come up with a viable path to 270. They may be "in it" this time, moreso than 2008 for sure, but the base mathematics are just atrocious for them and not getting any better.

I mean, a couple more percantage points in some of these states is a dramatic difference. It's what is making formerly safe places like NC, CO, and VA real honest to god battlegrounds.

 

[TacticalFox88]

It's no Reagan/Mondale.

That's not a landslide. That was complete and utter annihilation.

 

[XenodudeX]

For the "candidates are the same crowd".

 

[RDreamer]

at least he's being realistic. down here in texas, the mood is positively upbeat about a romney win. going to be great next tuesday evening..

Yeah, I think they're more realistic here. They were freakishly ecstatic after the first debate, but they haven't said much of anything since. After that first debate I did hear one guy basically talk about the polls being skewed. The guy I just quoted always seemed to be kind of pessimistic about Romney's hopes, though.

 

[jbug617]

just seen on Fox News about the early voting numbers from Gallup and how Romney is way ahead of Obama.

 

[gcubed]

Still is today.

269-269 tie still in play!

ha yeah, thats a tie, back then you could win the EV but still not be president because you didn't get enough EVs

 

[norinrad]

Didn't Romney have a running mate? Whatever happened to that guy?

I doubt he will have a career after this. Unless..........

 

[BertramCooper]

Demographics are 4 more years in our favor after 2008 and yet the GOP is more in it than last time. I think the demographic swing is probably overstated. They have like 20 years before they have to worry given the overactivity of racist white old people (chief Romney demo) and their eagerness to vote.

Fair point. I just think there will be a watershed moment where the GOP wakes the fuck up. Perhaps it will be this election, but you're right; it probably won't be.

In other news, more hilarity from my Facebook "friend" John:

 

[gcubed]

I doubt he will have a career after this. Unless..........

eh, he'll have a career in the senate, but his national dreams are absolutely crushed now

 

[anonymous_abc]

For the "candidates are the same crowd".

well taking into account the wide array in the political spectrum they are almost the same...
only comparing them and fading out everything else, sure they are different!

 

[cartoon_soldier]

See how Romney's "storm relief" events worked when it comes to local press

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/31/opening_act_just_grab_something.html

 

[Fragamemnon]

Fair point. I just think there will be a watershed moment where the GOP wakes the fuck up. Perhaps it will be this election, but you're right; it probably won't be.

I think it'll come out of a GOP Presidential Candidate who openly defies the hardline on immigration and social issues because they want to win. That candidate will have to electrify the base in other ways to make it out of the primaries, but I'm presuming it can happen.

 

[norinrad]

eh, he'll have a career in the senate, but his national dreams are absolutely crushed now

Too bad he will still have healthcare

 

[electricpirate]

See how Romney's "storm relief" events worked when it comes to local press

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/10/31/opening_act_just_grab_something.html

There's still time for it to backfire, but it seems likely he'll get a pass on it. Too bad.

 

[mj1108]

just seen on Fox News about the early voting numbers from Gallup and how Romney is way ahead of Obama.

Of course he is....

/s

 

[HylianTom]

Yuk it up, hillbilly reality-deniers.. your laughing will stop in approximately 154 hours.

 

[BertramCooper]

I think it'll come out of a GOP Presidential Candidate who openly defies the hardline on immigration and social issues because they want to win. That candidate will have to electrify the base in other ways to make it out of the primaries, but I'm presuming it can happen.

Jon Huntsman is as close to that as you'll get from the GOP these days.

 

[Y2Kev]

The thing is, even with sky-high enthusiasm of their base, they are still scraping to come up with a viable path to 270. They may be "in it" this time, moreso than 2008 for sure, but the base mathematics are just atrocious for them and not getting any better.

I mean, a couple more percantage points in some of these states is a dramatic difference. It's what is making formerly safe places like NC, CO, and VA real honest to god battlegrounds.

I get that, but it's hard to find the Instrumental Variable here, if you know what I mean. You are adding in sky-high enthusiasm with demographic changes with the fact that Romney is total ass-shit. He's the weakest Republican candidate in some time. I also don't subscribe to the theory that his path to 270 is as hard as people have made it out to be because he's so close in so many of these states. Yeah, he has to flip quite a lot of states, but in aggregate we're talking about flipping a few of these states by not very much. Yeah, it's hard, but I dunno.

But, to take an example, CO was not that close last time. As Incognito has said last time, by the second week of early voting, it was clear that Obama had wrapped it up. Now it's not clear that he's even ahead in EV (granted, the way party registration/voting there might make things a little screwy).

I just see people talk about Texas flipping by 2020 and I just don't see how that's possible.

 

[Father_Brain]

I think many of us can relate to this little girl.