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[Father_Brain]

Romney is campaigning in Wisconsin in Friday. Which, of course, will be taken by his supporters as a sign of extreme confidence in his performance in other battleground states, but more likely reflects a recognition that an Ohio win is becoming increasingly implausible.

 

[gkryhewy]

I missed this whole Gallup has Romney winning the early voting thing. When did this happen? Do they have any kind of breakdown? I mean if all state polls and even the GOP from the state are saying they are losing early voting, how does Gallup have them ahead?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

Probably relates to whatever voting model is making them a popular vote outlier.

 

[Half and half]

A black man with a job is pretty rare in Obama's America, but I did it

Omg lol!

 

[syllogism]

I missed this whole Gallup has Romney winning the early voting thing. When did this happen? Do they have any kind of breakdown? I mean if all state polls and even the GOP from the state are saying they are losing early voting, how does Gallup have them ahead?

There are more safe romney states with meaningful early voting than safe obama states, which could explain the discrepancy, but there are also some other national polls that show obama quite a bit ahead in early voting so who knows

 

[gcubed]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/158420/registered-voters-already-cast-ballots.aspx

Probably relates to whatever voting model is making them a popular vote outlier.

well right, but you would think that at some point they would be like... "hey guys, there is 794 data points saying we are off. Not a single other piece of data agrees with us. What is going on?"

 

[Byakuya769]

A black man with a job is pretty rare in Obama's America, but I did it

Tavis Smiley, is that you?

 

[syllogism]

PPP ohio poll is about what you would expect, I will leave it to your imagination

 

[Fragamemnon]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

edit: Yep, basically what you would expect. I think we could have called all the PPP results today in advance.

 

[Gotchaye]

well right, but you would think that at some point they would be like... "hey guys, there is 794 data points saying we are off. Not a single other piece of data agrees with us. What is going on?"

In their defense, their polls are probably more informative for our purposes if they /don't/ try to fix their method during an election. They should wait until next time around.

 

[pigeon]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...nteractive-make-mitt-romneys-tax-plan-add-up/

Can you do it?

I love this. The power of games to educate.

I get that, but it's hard to find the Instrumental Variable here, if you know what I mean. You are adding in sky-high enthusiasm with demographic changes with the fact that Romney is total ass-shit. He's the weakest Republican candidate in some time. I also don't subscribe to the theory that his path to 270 is as hard as people have made it out to be because he's so close in so many of these states. Yeah, he has to flip quite a lot of states, but in aggregate we're talking about flipping a few of these states by not very much. Yeah, it's hard, but I dunno.

But, to take an example, CO was not that close last time. As Incognito has said last time, by the second week of early voting, it was clear that Obama had wrapped it up. Now it's not clear that he's even ahead in EV (granted, the way party registration/voting there might make things a little screwy).

I just see people talk about Texas flipping by 2020 and I just don't see how that's possible.

Couple things. First, I think you're neglecting that the GOP has an ace they won't be able to play in future elections -- defeating the first black President. This is the high-water mark when it comes to racism, and that's inflating Romney's chances even as him actually being terrible is deflating them.

But, also, it's worth remembering that even in the death throes of 1976 the Democrats managed to send Jimmy Carter to the White House. I think that the GOP has a good shot at winning in 2016, and I think they're nearly guaranteed to win at least one by 2024 -- even a dead coalition wins every so often. What they won't be able to do is effectively govern. The current crop of GOP Senate candidates are a sample of their future crop -- and there are some pretty bad apples in there. Remember, these weren't throwaways. The Republican Party genuinely wanted to win all these Senate seats and believed that these candidates would do it. Now they're going to lose seats in both houses. This should indicate just how bad the GOP's ability to accomplish anything in government is going to be in a few years. It's going to be the Democratic agenda. That is the consequence of the GOP's radical movement.

I know people are arguing that the Dems will get thrown out in 2014, but I just don't believe it. For one thing, that's classic Democratic doomsaying, but for another thing, remember that 2014 marks the first year that insurance companies won't be able to charge more if you have a preexisting condition; the first year that Medicare is expanded up to 133% of the poverty line; the first year without annual spending caps; the first year of small business tax credits for providing insurance; the first year of health insurance exchanges and premium subsidies to low-income families. By the end of 2014, there will be hit piece ads blanketing the airwaves against every Republican that voted against Obamacare or voted to repeal it -- and guess what, that's all of them. Factor in the inevitable economic improvement and the high likelihood that we'll get a tax increase on the rich in the first few months of 2013, and I think it'll be a good year for the Democrats.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Ah so Barry bailing out the auto industry some how had a positive effect in you getting a job. Deny it all you want. In bailing out the auto industry many businesses were saved in Ohio and Michigan where you reside.


It really bothers me that people refer to the president as Mr Obama. he is still the president is he not?

I'm certainly grateful Mr. Obama followed Romney's lead and let the companies go bankrupt. No wonder Romney is closing closing in on Barry's lead here

 

[ivysaur12]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

Tied.

 

[RustyNails]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

 

[jiggle]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

Unskew that before posting pls.

mittlandslide

 

[dave is ok]

Unskew that before posting pls.

 

[Brinbe]

Definitely some bad news for bad news

Obama’s already amassed a large lead in the state. 33% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots and he leads 62-35 with them. Romney has a 50-45 advantage with those yet to vote.

Over before it even began.

 

[gcubed]

In their defense, their polls are probably more informative for our purposes if they /don't/ try to fix their method during an election. They should wait until next time around.

well yeah, but gallup doesn't release enough information for anyone to point to what was wrong with them, if they are indeed very wrong

 

[djplaeskool]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

wolfblitzer.jpg

 

[LosDaddie]

I'm kind of the same way, although I'm not big on discussing politics in real life. "Not born in america" is kind of the canary in the coal mine when it comes to political discourse with somebody these days. If you're a birther, I'm done.

My Birther / Teabagging / Culture Warrior mother-in-law will be flying into town on Nov 7 for a week. She called my wife last week literally crying about gay marriage becoming legal if Obama gets re-elected.

I've told my wife I may not be able to contain my trolling while she is here.

 

[gkryhewy]

well right, but you would think that at some point they would be like... "hey guys, there is 794 data points saying we are off. Not a single other piece of data agrees with us. What is going on?"

I imagine they're saying that internally, and may view the TEMPORARY SUPERSTORM POLL HALT as a blessing in disguise. Would be a good opportunity to quietly make some back-end tweaks before resumption. Or just call it a day for this cycle, since they won't have an unaffected one-week sample prior to election day ('we were probably right, but obama surged late').

 

[Aaron Strife]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

edit: Yep, basically what you would expect. I think we could have called all the PPP results today in advance.

Taken before Romney surged into the lead. Doesn't count.

 

[el retorno]

Is there any chance that the Jeep ad has hurt romney?

Thats two polls where Bams is up by 5. I thought others showed him only up by like 2 or 3

 

[pigeon]

Definitely some bad news for bad news

Over before it even began.

62-35 in 33% is a ten point lead banked, at least. For Romney to win Ohio he must win the remaining two-thirds by at least fifteen points.

Is there any chance that the Jeep ad has hurt romney?

Thats two polls where Bams is up by 5. I thought others showed him only up by like 2 or 3

Too soon. I think this is reflecting an improvement for him after the third debate -- he's had universally better Ohio polls since then.

 

[gcubed]

Taken before Romney surged into the lead. Doesn't count.

Its missing the Mittmentum factor which is a -5O and +5R on every poll

 

[Black Republican]

PPP exactly the same at 50? wow, Guess we might as well start the Fox calls the Ohio for Obama celebrations again!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=340904&page=106

oh and lol at this gem

My wife: "Chuck Todd kind of annoys me"

Grounds for divorce right?

 

[Plinko]

Is there any chance that the Jeep ad has hurt romney?

Thats two polls where Bams is up by 5. I thought others showed him only up by like 2 or 3

Uh, no, it's not a "chance." It definitely hurt him.

 

[RustyNails]

I'm certainly grateful Mr. Obama followed Romney's lead and let the companies go bankrupt. No wonder Romney is closing closing in on Barry's lead here

PD trolling inversely related to bad news. PD = σ(1/BN) where σ = diablos panic coefficient

 

[dabig2]

Is there any chance that the Jeep ad has hurt romney?

Thats two polls where Bams is up by 5. I thought others showed him only up by like 2 or 3

possibly. Though it still might be too early to say. In other words, it could get worse for rombot

 

[Cloudy]

With all the discussion over party ID in polls, why don't pollsters just as the "Independents" who they voted for in the last 2 elections and mark them as D or R lean?

 

[Plinko]

PPP exactly the same at 50? wow, Guess we might as well start the Fox calls the Ohio for Obama celebrations again!

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=340904&page=106

Reading that thread made me feel good. I hope for the same feeling this year.

Also, we need more of those Vince McMahon gifs this year.

 

[Keio]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

edit: Yep, basically what you would expect. I think we could have called all the PPP results today in advance.

So it's 50/50 because all undecideds break for the challengers. Factor in the storm and the Jeep ad and Romney is probably already ahead by 2. Bad news for Obama.

I'd love to get inside the heads of some voters who swung Romney's way after debate 1: what were they thinking? Are they now turning Obama? Or just lost all enthusiasm?

Any predictions anywhere on the turnout, how do the RV/LV numbers look compared to 2008?

 

[threetri333]

possibly. Though it still might be too early to say. In other words, it could get worse for rombot

How could it get worse, within a week?

 

[mj1108]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

edit: Yep, basically what you would expect. I think we could have called all the PPP results today in advance.

Hopium!

 

[Ecotic]

I wish the GOP was still turning on Romney like they were pre-debate, instead of just hugging Gallup and Rasmussen and unskewing the rest. You know, just for the lulz.

Oh the good ole' days...

 

[ido]

Damn, that new PPP poll pretty much confirms Mitt is taking Ohio. Blitzer may call it a dead heat, but we know unskewed it's probably a +3 Romney.

 

[RDreamer]

On the talk of coworkers, I have the best of both worlds. My part time office job is filled with republicans, and my full time job is filled with young liberals (everyone from the owner on down is younger than 30). My boss at my full time job is now extremely behind Obama. He's possibly more liberal than me, even, though I don't think he pays as much attention to actual politics quite as much as me now.

So, at one job Obama sucks and is a communist. At the other he kind of sucks because he isn't liberal enough.

 

[Clevinger]

lol

edit: Also, Wise Besada was prescient

"The nice thing about one party controlling three branches (which won't be the case, unlike the six years of Republicans we've recently left behind), is that it never lasts very long. Constant gridlock assures nothing ever moves forward. Every once in awhile, someone has to take the reins and move things along.

The Democrats will get some things done, get sloppy, and get voted out in due time. Until then, you'll just have to live with it, just like we had to live with the Republicans."

 

[Black Republican]

Obama's up with both women (53/44) and men (48/47) in Ohio

Obama’s already amassed a large lead in the state. 33% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots and he leads 62-35 with them. Romney has a 50-45 advantage with those yet to vote.

um, "you are already dead"?

lol

loved reading those during my lurker days, good times mang

 

[RustyNails]

Too soon. I think this is reflecting an improvement for him after the third debate -- he's had universally better Ohio polls since then.

Mitt trying to take credit for auto bailout in 3rd debate looked very desperate.

 

[dabig2]

How could it get worse, within a week?

romney didn't start getting hit back till a couple days ago. If the jeep ads did backfire, then polls might not show that till tomorrow or friday. Rest assured we're going to get bombed with "swing state" polls from today till Tuesday so we'll know for sure eventually.

 

[Incognito]

PPP Ohio

Obammunism 50
Romney 45

edit: Yep, basically what you would expect. I think we could have called all the PPP results today in advance.

well, the dude at buzzfeed said some politico who's an independent minded Ohioan told him the race was closer to 1pt. i think i know who to believe!

 

[ido]

I work for a christian university.

lol I know.

I do EMS(Energy Management Systems) work so I am around maintenance constantly. It gets pretty hilarious(sad).

 

[Krauser Kat]

i have one person who swears obama should be assassinated because he spends too much.
A couple who dislike unions. One (the president) who browses drudge. The vp who hates the shit out of romney but is sad on bams because he is from syria and we are doing nothing about it. A gay mexican who just started as my intern/jr designer. Im pretty sure i know where he stands but i dont want to drop politics on him in his first/second week.

Other news i got a 16% raise this week which is fuck awesome and my house refi stuff went in today. I cant wait for an obama win to top off all this awesome news.

Passive aggressive yard signs in my quite neighborhood. on sunday a house put up a One Nation Under god vote pro life sign. On Monday a house across the street, put up a Proud Union Home one.

Single issue abortion voters who are mexican, blow my mind.

 

[Raine]

My gut tells me the race is a tied in Ohio...so I'm gonna go with that.

 

[speculawyer]

Something I don't understand is that the "Jewish conspiracy/Illuminati" people also tend to be the "Israel is our closest ally" people. Do they simultaneously hate/love Jews?

Some of them . . . yes. They just like Israel because Israel is needed to bring back Jesus but they don't like Jews.


But there are splits. Pat Buchanan has never been all that enamoured by Jews or Israel.

 

[el retorno]

My gut tells me the race is a tied in Ohio...so I'm gonna go with that.

You'd make a great political analyst

 

[dabig2]

I wish the GOP was still turning on Romney like they were pre-debate, instead of just hugging Gallup and Rasmussen and unskewing the rest. You know, just for the lulz.

Oh the good ole' days...

Nah, I greatly enjoy this. False hope is best hope. It's no fun when your enemy believes he's already dead.

It's like whenyou hunt for meat. The animal's struggle makes it taste oh so much better ]

 

[RustyNails]

i have one person who swears obama should be assassinated because he spends too much.

http://www.secretservice.gov/contact.shtml

 

[Y2Kev]

Obamaunism, lol

 

[PhoenixDark]

It's too early to say what the Jeep fallout will be like, but it's certainly not a good thing when the CEO of said company sends all his employees an email saying you're full of shit