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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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GhaleonEB

Member
Yuk it up, hillbilly reality-deniers.. your laughing will stop in approximately 154 hours.

Oh, I think they'll manage to deny reality a while longer, if the past four years are anything to go by.

Won't make their tears any less delicious, of course. Really looking forward to that Unskewed Polls dude's take on the election results.
 
Hi everyone, first time Poli-GAF poster. :)

Looking at the electoral math, comparing Obama's worst case scenario to Romney's worst case scenario is a great way to gauge the odds of an Obama/Romney win. The difference in this election is that Obama's worst case scenario still gives him a 80-90% chance of edging out Romney with a clean 270 total. That's if he loses Ohio (likely not), Iowa (likely not), Florida (very likely), Colorado (likely not) but holds on to the Great Lake states (which he likely will), Nevada (likely), New Hampshire (very likely), and Virginia (likely, but will be the hardest to snatch). While it's possible that Obama could lose every swing state (due more to Murphy's Law than any real evidence), taking polls as any kind of indication show that his worst case scenario is still a successful presidential election.
 
Hi everyone, first time Poli-GAF poster. :)

Looking at the electoral math, comparing Obama's worst case scenario to Romney's worst case scenario is a great way to gauge the odds of an Obama/Romney win. The difference in this election is that Obama's worst case scenario still gives him a 80-90% chance of edging out Romney with a clean 270 total. That's if he loses Ohio (likely not), Iowa (likely not), Florida (very likely), Colorado (likely not) but holds on to the Great Lake states (which he likely will), Nevada (likely), New Hampshire (very likely), and Virginia (likely, but will be the hardest to snatch). While it's possible that Obama could win every swing state (due more to Murphy's Law than any real evidence), taking polls as any kind of indication show that his worst case scenario is still a successful presidential election.
Welcome and thank you for the post :)
 

Trurl

Banned
Game over guys, according to Breitbart every prez election held on Nov 6 the GOP candidate wins.

Well, the first film of every Star Wars trilogy comes out when a Dem is president. Obama must be the PotUS in 2015.

Then again. . . .
SW IV=D SW V=D SW VI=R
SW I= D SW II=R SW III=R

Perhaps then
SW VII=R SW=VIII=R SW IX=R

:-(
 
Oh, I think they'll manage to deny reality a while longer, if the past four years are anything to go by.

Won't make their tears any less delicious, of course. Really looking forward to that Unskewed Polls dude's take on the election results.

A shame you live in a blue state. You won't get AS much tears from the GAFers that live in the states.

God, election night is gonna be glorious!
 

GhaleonEB

Member
A shame you live in a blue state. You won't get AS much tears from the GAFers that live in the states.

God, election night is gonna be glorious!

Four of my nearby coworkers are teabagging, Fox News loving, chain email forwarding diehards. Not much, but they're my touch point for all things crazy. I plan to violate one of my rules and wear my Obama t-shirt to work next Wednesday. The last time I did so was the day after the 2008 election. I'll be sure to drift by their cubes and say hi. Hopefully they're not at home in mourning.
 

Hop

That girl in the bunny hat
Hi everyone, first time Poli-GAF poster. :)

Looking at the electoral math, comparing Obama's worst case scenario to Romney's worst case scenario is a great way to gauge the odds of an Obama/Romney win. The difference in this election is that Obama's worst case scenario still gives him a 80-90% chance of edging out Romney with a clean 270 total. That's if he loses Ohio (likely not), Iowa (likely not), Florida (very likely), Colorado (likely not) but holds on to the Great Lake states (which he likely will), Nevada (likely), New Hampshire (very likely), and Virginia (likely, but will be the hardest to snatch). While it's possible that Obama could lose every swing state (due more to Murphy's Law than any real evidence), taking polls as any kind of indication show that his worst case scenario is still a successful presidential election.

You can tell he's new because he's still being sensible and realistic. No worries, we'll have you trolling and dripping with sarcasm in no time. :)
 

Triton55

Member
Nice to see that the map I've submitted every day this month on 270towin is falling back into place: 303 Blue

I'll go ahead and stick with that number for Amirox's contest here, if it's still open:

303-235 Obama
+1.7% Obama
Virginia called at 1:30 AM EST.
 

Keio

For a Finer World
Hi everyone, first time Poli-GAF poster. :)

Looking at the electoral math, comparing Obama's worst case scenario to Romney's worst case scenario is a great way to gauge the odds of an Obama/Romney win. The difference in this election is that Obama's worst case scenario still gives him a 80-90% chance of edging out Romney with a clean 270 total. That's if he loses Ohio (likely not), Iowa (likely not), Florida (very likely), Colorado (likely not) but holds on to the Great Lake states (which he likely will), Nevada (likely), New Hampshire (very likely), and Virginia (likely, but will be the hardest to snatch). While it's possible that Obama could lose every swing state (due more to Murphy's Law than any real evidence), taking polls as any kind of indication show that his worst case scenario is still a successful presidential election.

That's very bad news for Obama.

Welcome!
 
Proud consumer of hopium here.

I work for a Fortune 500 company and in my small dept. and my direct manager, our boss, and the kid who's cube is behind me are all hardcore republicans. All of them are relatively moderate when it comes to social issues but refuse to budge when it comes to debating either foreign policy or economic issues no matter how much empirical evidence I provide to the contrary (AKA the non-partisan Tax Policy Center's analysis of Romney's tax plan rips it to shreds) the fall back to the most nonsensical Fox News talking points and bash Obama relentlessly.

I really hope I'm drinking their salty tiers come next week.

EDIT: I've been refreshing this Poli-GAF thread relentlessly the past few days and plan on doing so religiously over the next few so keep up the good work!
 
lol at the OFA press call:

"We have the math & they have the myth. The Romney campaign is trying to sell illusion & delusion"

Four of my nearby coworkers are teabagging, Fox News loving, chain email forwarding diehards. Not much, but they're my touch point for all things crazy. I plan to violate one of my rules and wear my Obama t-shirt to work next Wednesday. The last time I did so was the day after the 2008 election. I'll be sure to drift by their cubes and say hi. Hopefully they're not at home in mourning.

man you're an evil motherfucker

my man
 

Brinbe

Member
Hi everyone, first time Poli-GAF poster. :)

Looking at the electoral math, comparing Obama's worst case scenario to Romney's worst case scenario is a great way to gauge the odds of an Obama/Romney win. The difference in this election is that Obama's worst case scenario still gives him a 80-90% chance of edging out Romney with a clean 270 total. That's if he loses Ohio (likely not), Iowa (likely not), Florida (very likely), Colorado (likely not) but holds on to the Great Lake states (which he likely will), Nevada (likely), New Hampshire (very likely), and Virginia (likely, but will be the hardest to snatch). While it's possible that Obama could lose every swing state (due more to Murphy's Law than any real evidence), taking polls as any kind of indication show that his worst case scenario is still a successful presidential election.


Awesome post, welcome aboard. =)
 

HylianTom

Banned
Four of my nearby coworkers are teabagging, Fox News loving, chain email forwarding diehards. Not much, but they're my touch point for all things crazy. I plan to violate one of my rules and wear my Obama t-shirt to work next Wednesday. The last time I did so was the day after the 2008 election. I'll be sure to drift by their cubes and say hi. Hopefully they're not at home in mourning.
I have to adhere to the hospital scrubs dress code, so no t-shirts here. But I will make my commentary with a smile on my face and a song in my heart. I'll be incredibly cheery on the day after without saying single a word about it in mixed company; it'd seem ridiculous for a co-worker to complain, "Heyyy.. Tom's being too nice and happy! Not cool! I'm going to file a complaint!"

---

Oh, and there's a SUSA poll just out showing Obama up 7 in Minnesota. Like I said.. Minnesota is incredibly Dem-friendly. I kindly invite Romney to spend lots of time there over the following week. Maybe he'll say something funny so that Garrison Keillor has something humorous to riff off of this weekend.
 
Pretty sure I work with all democrats. The one republican decided to take another job last week; she wasn't a crazy republican though, and actually very nice
 
Four of my nearby coworkers are teabagging, Fox News loving, chain email forwarding diehards. Not much, but they're my touch point for all things crazy. I plan to violate one of my rules and wear my Obama t-shirt to work next Wednesday. The last time I did so was the day after the 2008 election. I'll be sure to drift by their cubes and say hi. Hopefully they're not at home in mourning.

Kind of OT, but they let you wear casual clothing in the financial industry? o_O I thought you had to be slacks, dress shirt and tie type of shit going on.
 

Tamanon

Banned
I'm pretty split in my workplace, working in North Carolina. There are some HUGE Dem/Obama fans in the office, and a few quieter stalwart Republicans. But we try and keep political stuff off the floor.
 

nib95

Banned
Pretty sure I work with all democrats. The one republican decided to take another job last week; she wasn't a crazy republican though, and actually very nice

If I remember correctly you're a Republican too right?That must be aawkward for you at work, bit like the guy above in the Fortune 500 company who's surrounded by Republicans lol.
 
I can't wait until this is over. My ultra JAYZUSSS conservative family is driving me insane.

From now on, when people start talking politics with me, I will ask "Do you think Barack Obama was born in America?" If they say no, I will refuse to continue any discourse with them. If you talk to the pro-Romney people long enough, they'll show their true colors eventually, in my experiences.
 
I have one coworker who I never interact with, but loves to post crazy ass feverswamp republican shit on facebook. Fast and Furious, obama watched benghazi burn, Romney is leading in early voting and Rs have a plus one party ID advantage.
 
If I remember correctly you're a Republican too right?That must be aawkward for you at work, bit like the guy above in the Fortune 500 company who's surrounded by Republicans lol.
I'm a liberal, I'm not a democrat. Dems had their chance to snag my unraveling support 4 years ago and blew it
 
I work for an electric utility with a coal plant. So yeah, almost all Republicans.

But thankfully political discussions that don't relate to our industry are pretty much nonexistent.
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
I can't wait until this is over. My ultra JAYZUSSS conservative family is driving me insane.

From now on, when people start talking politics with me, I will ask "Do you think Barack Obama was born in America?" If they say no, I will refuse to continue any discourse with them. If you talk to the pro-Romney people long enough, they'll show their true colors eventually, in my experiences.

I'm kind of the same way, although I'm not big on discussing politics in real life. "Not born in america" is kind of the canary in the coal mine when it comes to political discourse with somebody these days. If you're a birther, I'm done.
 

Brinbe

Member
Nate's latest post on 538 is a nicely added dose of hopium. Pretty much comes to the same conclusion we all have, if the state polls are to be trusted, Bams is in line for a W.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...polls-suggest-about-the-national-popular-vote

Whether the state polls or the national polls characterize the election correctly could well determine its outcome.

Mr. Obama’s lead in the Electoral College is modest, but also quite consistent across the different methods. The states in which every site has Mr. Obama leading make up 271 electoral votes — one more than the president needs to clinch victory. The states in which everyone has Mr. Romney ahead represent 206 electoral votes. That leaves five states, and 61 electoral votes, unaccounted for — but Mr. Obama would not need them if he prevails in the states where he is leading in the polls...

...In the meantime, the state polls continue to hint that Mr. Obama remains the favorite to win the Electoral College — and if the state polls are right, he may well be the favorite in the popular vote as well.
Dat 271 firewall.
 
thats a weird statement from you. How are you both a liberal and a Clinton fan?

I am a flaming liberal and voted Clinton in NC in the 2008 primary, well after everything was decided, and would still vastly prefer Hillary over Obama if given the choice. I don't hold a grudge about it tho, Obama is a pretty swell guy.
 

ezrarh

Member
I'm lucky, I work for a small company that gets a lot of money from DoD but the owner hates Mitt Romney's guts. He was originally from another country and got his wealth from the semiconductor business so he's not entrenched in DoD stuff - that's probably the only reason why he's not conservative. It's funny though, he always complains about hating government waste considering where our funding comes from. But the company itself is a mix of liberal and conservatives but no crazies fortunately.
 

gcubed

Member
I missed this whole Gallup has Romney winning the early voting thing. When did this happen? Do they have any kind of breakdown? I mean if all state polls and even the GOP from the state are saying they are losing early voting, how does Gallup have them ahead?

I am a flaming liberal and voted Clinton in NC in the 2008 primary, well after everything was decided, and would still vastly prefer Hillary over Obama if given the choice. I don't hold a grudge about it tho, Obama is a pretty swell guy.

well yeah, that makes sense. Saying that as a liberal the dem's left you because they didn't choose Clinton is a whacky stance to take.
 

norinrad

Member
A black man with a job is pretty rare in Obama's America, but I did it

Ah so Barry bailing out the auto industry some how had a positive effect in you getting a job. Deny it all you want. In bailing out the auto industry many businesses were saved in Ohio and Michigan where you reside.


It really bothers me that people refer to the president as Mr Obama. he is still the president is he not?
 
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