Black Mamba
Member
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1
2008 65 was 17%.
There is no way it is close to 40% on 60+.
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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi
- Thread starter RustyNails
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http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=OHP00p1
2008 65 was 17%.
There is no way it is close to 40% on 60+.
no idea on destroyed places. Places without electricity will most likely either be generators or paper ballots.
I think that was a gears of war review actually, I totally agree though.
Frum is so weird right now. His argument is exactly the same as mine, except that he thinks that the GOP will moderate if it wins because Romney is secretly neither moderate nor extreme but pragmatic and the GOP will stop being babies if they win one. I feel like he started with his conclusion here and wrote backwards.
That sounds really similar to giving in to a terrorists demands. The tea party house has been SO terrible that the only solution is to vote for the candidate they want.
And the laughable part is, that candidate is Romney, a guy who hasn't found a position he'd keep given opposition to, and he's supposed to change the house gop and not the other way around? Thanks Frum, you're funny.
electricpirate
Member
It's basically him saying "I really hope the mitt I'm voting for is the MA mitt, not the general election Mitt. Conservative dems and liberal republicans are great, Obama's pretty cool, but MA Romney is better. Gosh darnit i hope I'm voting for MA Romney. GOP is crazy, but with Romney they'll stop being crazy!"
cooljeanius
Member
That's no excuse not to campaign there though.
Shadow Hog
Member
What was it in 2010?
Similarly, even Gallup shows only 22% over 65 voters in their wild and wacky electorate model.
I kind of suspect that Gallup/Rasmussen/Wenzler are the closest look we'll get at the GOP internal turnout model.
PhoenixDark
Banned
The article merely presents both sides of the argument. We've seen a few polls with rather low Hispanic numbers in Florida or Obama with 85-88% of black voters in Ohio. And young people...meh, not buying they show up until they do.
I don't think Gallup is completely right, but I do believe this electorate will be very white and older. That's why I remain bearish on Obama's chances in Ohio. Maybe Romney fucked himself with the jeep nonsense but those white blue collar voters are looking for a reason to vote against Obama.
I think Tuesday will feature a couple surprises, including Ohio
That's the spirit. Essentially reward them for their extreme obstructionism.
Link
The Autumn Wind
Dude's a lifelong Republican and was a speechwriter for W. No one should have expected anything different.
cartoon_soldier
Member
Holy Crap!
Black Republican
Member
So Mayor Bloomberg endorses Obama
basically a Scott Brown/Obama supporter!
wait wut..
basically a Scott Brown/Obama supporter!
wait wut..
TacticalFox88
Banned
We've entered the twilight zone.
Fragamemnon
Member
so you're a variant on the poll truthers. Good to know.
Implosion of white support in the rust belt and midwest compared to the South is the very reason why Romney can't seem to crack Ohio, where his unfavorables are high and his credibility is low. The electorate will be whiter and somewhat older than 2008, but it's not going to help Mitt where he needs its help the most.
The Librarian
Banned
Black Mamba
Member
http://www.cbsnews.com/election2010/exit.shtml?state=OH&jurisdiction=0&race=S
17% over 65. In 2010. No different.
Wertzel has 18% above 70.
It's a nonsense poll.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Did he endorse anyone in 2008?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Underpolling of Hispanic voters due to the language barrier is why the the Nevada polls from 2010 were wrong. There isn't any basis for your prediction of super high angry Republican vote other than MorrisLogic. Early voting/turnout figures from 9 battleground states aren't essentially meaningful since a lot of things have changed since 2008 and there aren't uniform EV or even party registration laws across battleground states.
I have this alternate theory you're just making things up to reach a pessimistic conclusion because there's less let down if you convince yourself its going to go bad in the first place. It's like That Guy everyone knows who gets upset during the fourth quarter of football games when their team is up by 10 because when other team gets a couple of first downs he reaches the conclusion the opposing team will just march down the field, make the touchdown convert the onside kick and then convert again.
polyh3dron
Banned
Ugh I hate this attitude. The GOP hate Obama for reasons unknown and will actively move to block anything he tries to pass even if it's something they supported in the past, so let's reward that behavior by giving them a Republican president because then they won't be as obstructionist and those Democrats are pussies so they'll never do the obstruction thing.
That whole mentality is cynical as fuck.
I thought he said he wasn't endorsing anyone this go around.
34% ... so 40% is absolutely ludicrous
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
So whats the bad news today?
AlteredBeast
Fork 'em, Sparky!
Shocker.
The Librarian
Banned
Turns out PD's a poll truther. :/
Old people.
wow, I thought it'd be lower
I'm diablosing. ConEd is saying NYC might not have power fully until November 10. The Rich People Areas will have power by saturday NYC FLIPPING
Suikoguy
I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
PD is just hedging the rare chance all of the state polls are wrong, so he can point at it and say I told you so Nov 7th, or say I was just kidding, otherwise.
Good way to get attention too.
Good way to get attention too.
StopMakingSense
Member
Clearly Obama extorted Bloomberg with disaster relief funds.
Byakuya769
Member
At my laziest, I've done better than that.
ClovingWestbrook
Banned
Dax, why do you do this to yourself? You're asking a joke character to be serious. It's the equivalent of asking a Neo NAZI to support the Jews.
Black Mamba
Member
Really? Didn't notice Gallup was saying that.
It was 16% in '08. I think it could rise with less youth turnout + more old people alive, but not to 22%
I think the biggest jump might be in the 50-65 range.
Couple of quick points on that story: first, it should be obvious that it's a motivated leak. It's clear that the only way Romney can win is if there's a massive systematic error with all the state polling. It should not be surprising then that a GOP pollster suddenly produces a story on how there might be a massive systematic error with all the state polling. Taken in that light, this is another example of GOP recognition of how bad Romney's position appears.
Secondly, importantly, the argument hinges on whether polls are too bullish or too bearish on Latinos and young people. There isn't, as far as I can see, an obvious reason that a lot of polls would all be too bullish on Latinos and young people. There are a couple of well-known reasons why they might be too bearish: pollsters generally only interview in English and they generally don't reach cell phones. Historically these factors have proven to underweight Latino and youth voters. Polls that do call cell phones? Consistently show even better results for Obama. The very few polls that do Spanish and English interviews? Latino Decisions shows more Latino vote intention than ever before and huge margins for Obama.
So what are the theoretical reasons that the polls might be overweighting them? It's not really sufficient to theorize an effect; to be taken seriously, you need to theorize a cause.
Secondly, importantly, the argument hinges on whether polls are too bullish or too bearish on Latinos and young people. There isn't, as far as I can see, an obvious reason that a lot of polls would all be too bullish on Latinos and young people. There are a couple of well-known reasons why they might be too bearish: pollsters generally only interview in English and they generally don't reach cell phones. Historically these factors have proven to underweight Latino and youth voters. Polls that do call cell phones? Consistently show even better results for Obama. The very few polls that do Spanish and English interviews? Latino Decisions shows more Latino vote intention than ever before and huge margins for Obama.
So what are the theoretical reasons that the polls might be overweighting them? It's not really sufficient to theorize an effect; to be taken seriously, you need to theorize a cause.
They are only going to bring generators to the polling places in republican districts. They are closing the democratic leaning districts for flood repairs in all the states on the east coast.
If that isn't some wishful thinking, I don't know what is. Who really believes Romney would stand up to congressional Republicans, or that those politicians would suddenly start serving the country?
Angry Grimace
Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
He's right in that I would have voted for 1994 Mitt Romney
Appeasing hostage takers is truly the best policy.
i don't think most people under 30 know that midterms exist
RustyNails
Member
Bad news for Obama
Black Mamba
Member
Also shows why the attacks on Silver are so misguided.
If Romney wins and Silver is wrong, Silver isn't wrong because his model is wrong. He's wrong because the state public polling is wrong across the board. There's a systematic omitted variable bias that took place. Silver relies on public polling. The only way he could be wrong is if his model and the polling differed and the polling won out.
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