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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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C

cooljeanius

Member
Delusibeta said:
AFAIK The Economist is British, and so they follow the Non-American definition of "right wing" and "left wing", in which case Obama would be squarely centre-right.
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The Economist is still farther to the right than Obama is though. They said in their endorsement that they were endorsing him despite his liberal tendencies.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Wapo article points to Ohio being a one to three point race in Obama's favor, which is within the 538 range and the range of pretty much every other polling aggregate. The thing that makes the Ohio numbers so strong for Obama is that the frequency of polling and the overall precision of the polls clearly point to that lead existing and not being a 'bad read' from the polls.

edit: The Economist is very much a magazine with writers that work out of a global community mindset. It's very hard to justify supporting the American GOP when you have a broad worldview.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Fragamemnon said:
Wapo article points to Ohio being a one to three point race in Obama's favor, which is within the 538 range and the range of pretty much every other polling aggregate. The thing that makes the Ohio numbers so strong for Obama is that the frequency of polling and the overall precision of the polls clearly point to that lead existing and not being a 'bad read' from the polls.
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That's why its a joke. There isn't any reason to suggest its moved one way or another.
 
D

Delusibeta

Banned
cooljeanius said:
The Economist is still farther to the right than Obama is though. They said in their endorsement that they were endorsing him despite his liberal tendencies.
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That probably because they're a right-wing magazine (and admittedly Britain ain't free of right wing nut jobs, as the Daily Mail demonstrates on a semi-regular basis. Generally speaking The Economist is not one of them. It's should be noted that we have a far higher proportion of prominent right-wing folk who aren't blatantly mad compared to the right in America)
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Y2Kev said:
Telling that you are all dismissing the Daily Caller, a highly reputable website. 1) They are daily, which means the news is freshest, and 2) they call, which implies they have inside sources who they are in frequent contact with.
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Of course. Illinois going red means Romney is super comfortable letting Christie sing Obama's praises in NJ. It was all part of the plan/Mittmentum.
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
How about some "fundamentals" of that Wenzel strategies poll.

For as crazy skewed as Gallup's numbers look, they typically break everything down by demographics and the questions they pose.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Diablos said:
I dunno, as much as I love fivethirtyeight I think it might be a bit high to put Obama at 79%. I think once you really see the state-by-state turnout weigh in beyond polling, it'll be closer to a 60/40 election.
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What does that even mean? When the results are in it will be 100/0 one way or the other.
 
P

Paches

Member
Y2Kev said:
Telling that you are all dismissing the Daily Caller, a highly reputable website. 1) They are daily, which means the news is freshest, and 2) they call, which implies they have inside sources who they are in frequent contact with.
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Gotta hand it to you, every one of your posts cracks me up. A good counterbalance for the likes of PD.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Delusibeta said:
AFAIK The Economist is British, and so they follow the Non-American definition of "right wing" and "left wing", in which case Obama would be squarely centre-right.
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This isn't really true. Lot of Obama's policies are to the left of the British Right, stimulus, raising taxes on the rich, etc.
 
T

Tim-E

Member
WaPo, despite being a good politics news source, can't shake the typical beltway press "SEE HOW EVEN WE ARE" tendencies.
 
E

el retorno

Member
RustyNails said:
So we have two solid polls showing Obama +4 in OH (and one really questionable one showing R+3), and wapo changes it to tossup?
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regimentOA_sm.jpg


Paches-EJ- said:
Even Huffington Post is getting in on the act:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/01/presidential-polls_n_2056377.html
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Lol the articles basically says they're usually not wrong and we're 98% sure they're right but WHAT IF THEY AREN'T!?!?!
 
S

syllogism

Member
Given that their definition of a toss-up means a likely margin of 5 or more, nothing particularly wrong with the move. They just should have done it a few weeks ago. NC should be a "toss-up" too, however, despite leaning romney
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Haha, I've got some local conservative radio station on now (testing an emergency radio) and the hosts are going on about how we saw the real, awesome Mitt Romney in "the debate". And their favorite parts from "the debate". You know, that one scheduled Presidential debate we had.
 
G

gcubed

Member
syllogism said:
Given their definition of a toss-up means a likely margin of 5 or more, nothing particularly wrong with the move. They just should have done it a few weeks ago. NC should be a "toss-up" too, however, despite leaning romney
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wait, a toss up is an advantage of less then 5? holy shit
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
The newspapers are just pulling CYA. They don't want to commit to Silver's model, Morris's (lol) model or Wang's model because those positions make them at risk of being wrong.
 
H

Hobbestetrician

Member
The Doom Brigade is just starting. It is going to be like this (and worse) all the way through Tuesday. Very few state polls show any good news for Romney, let alone a barrage of good news that would tip the Electoral College towards him but sites have to ring the 'well, maybe everything is wrong' bell to get them clicks.
 
S

syllogism

Member
David Frum on why he is voting for Romney, some fairly selected and completely representative quotes

When President Obama took office in January 2009 the US was plunging downward into the worst recession since World War II. By summer 2009, the US had begun a weak but real recovery, which at last seems to be accelerating into an expansion that more and more Americans can feel.

President Obama gave the order that killed Osama bin Laden. He ended the war in Iraq on acceptable terms. He is enforcing tightening sanctions against Iran, inspiring hopes of a peaceful end to that country's nuclear program.

President Obama got important things right in his first time

I don't want to see Obamacare repealed.

The country's most pressing economic problem IS the break-down of the old middle-class economy. Wages are stagnating at the middle, class lines are hardening, and more and more of the benefits of growth are claimed by the very wealthiest. President Obama delivered his answer to this problem in his important speech in Osawatomie, Kansas, a year ago: more direct government employment (at higher wages), more government contracting (to enforce higher wages), and more government aid to college students (in hope that expanding the number of degree holders will raise their average wage).

Would Mitt Romney be an improvement over President Obama? I'd like to believe the David Brooks theory of the Romney presidency: that Romney will pivot away from Tea Party Republicanism as soon as he is elected. I don't see much evidence in support of that theory, alas. George Romney, I'm told, liked to say, "As you campaign, so shall you govern."

The congressional Republicans have shown themselves a destructive and irrational force in American politics. But we won't reform the congressional GOP by re-electing President Obama.
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http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/11/01/why-i-ll-vote-for-romney.html
 
O

Owzers

Member
cooljeanius said:
As someone who has been campaigning for Obama in VA, please change your mind and go vote! Especially considering how important VA is...
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I was bluffing :O I am getting fairly annoyed with what's going on right now in Romney's campaign, simultaneously running that Jeep is moving to China add, Mittmentum narrative that even non-republicans are taking, and Romney pretending to be a bipartisan "big change" candidate. But the only solution to this massive republican trolling effort is to vote.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
For the greatest of us all, Prophet PhoenixDark:

Conservatives are taking heart today from a very interesting piece by Reid Wilson that explains some of the disparities between Republican and Democratic internal polling. Yet Wilson’s reporting also confirms something about the race that shouldn’t really give the right all that much comfort: The public polling overwhelmingly tracks with the Dem reading of the electorate, and not with the Republican reading of it.

Wilson explains that questions about how diverse the electorate will be this time around are driving the differences between the GOP and Dem internal polling. Both sides agree that the African American vote will make up roughly the same share of the electorate as in 2008. They differ when it come to Latinos and young voters. Republicans think Latino turnout will be down, thanks to the economy and Obama’s failure to secure immigration reform. They think fewer young voters will turn out and/or that fewer will vote for Obama this time. Republicans think the electorate will be older and whiter. Dems believe the electorate will continue to grow younger and more diverse.

That’s a legit argument to have, and we won’t know who’s right until Election Day. But Wilson adds this absolutely crucial point:

What concerns Republicans most is the fact that media polls seem to track more closely with Democratic internals than with the GOP’s numbers.
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More here.

Also:

dbd1031.gif
 
W

WatTsu

Member
So I'm not wholly convinced the storm is going to change the electoral results on the coast, but I am curious - have they announced how they're going to handle voting in the really hard hit areas?

Obviously Election Day logistics are far from the most important issue going on this week, but I am very curious.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
We'll see. I don't believe Hispanics or young people will show up in big numbers, leading to losses in VA and CO
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You have nothing to base that on. Did you read?

Wilson explains that questions about how diverse the electorate will be this time around are driving the differences between the GOP and Dem internal polling. Both sides agree that the African American vote will make up roughly the same share of the electorate as in 2008. They differ when it come to Latinos and young voters. Republicans think Latino turnout will be down, thanks to the economy and Obama’s failure to secure immigration reform. They think fewer young voters will turn out and/or that fewer will vote for Obama this time. Republicans think the electorate will be older and whiter. Dems believe the electorate will continue to grow younger and more diverse.

That’s a legit argument to have, and we won’t know who’s right until Election Day. But Wilson adds this absolutely crucial point:

What concerns Republicans most is the fact that media polls seem to track more closely with Democratic internals than with the GOP’s numbers.
Click to expand...
 
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