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[Gruco]

Reuters/Ipsos VA O + 5, 49-44

I'll wait for Dean Chambers to unskew.

So once the undecideds break for Mitt, 51-49 Romney.

Bad news for Obama

 

[thefro]

Listened to the end of Obama's new stump speech in LV on Sirius and he was on fire.

Really tying together everything and riffing off Romney saying he was the candidate of change, well, here's what change looks like and what we have left to do. They even played Stevie Wonder at the end like 2008

 

[ErasureAcer]

Romney's faced the 44/45 hurdle this whole election in battlegrounds. Not too surprising.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Unless you're just trolling the hell out of us, this continues to represent a two-point gain or so for Obama this week. Maybe more.

edit: for context, the HISTORIC gains Mitt got after the first debate averaged out to maybe 2.5-3 points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101

 

[PhoenixDark]

Romney’s Virigina Supporters Hope For Victory, But Fear Obama May Pull Through

http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/romney-virginia-rally.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Wow.

“Michael Jordan could be president on that basis,” he said. “I don’t mean to sound glib, but are we electing someone to know the top hip hop songs — or to get the job done?”

This is a major problem with Obama imo. He pretends to be some hip guy*, and I think many people vote for him based on that level of likability - but he doesn't get the job done. Politically he's like your cool cousin who has all the videogame systems before everyone else but has been working at McDonalds for a decade.


*I say "pretends" because Obama strikes me as a socks with sandals guy, deep down

 

[Trurl]

I just wish we could win back the House. :,-(

For all of the problems built into American democracy, things would be so much better if we simply had the same kind of turn out for midterm elections as presidential elections.

 

[Bowdz]

Reuters/Ipsos VA O + 5, 49-44

I NEED A HOPIUM SHOT, STAT!

 

[The Technomancer]

By different do you mean more enlightened, or something more subtle? I know a racist Ohioan lady who voted for Obama in 2008 and will do it again this year.

Just generally more tolerant in my experience. I mean, admittedly my experience is the more blue northeastern part of the Midwest (Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota) but for as whitebread as people are racism has never been an undercurrent I've noticed. People are nice here.

 

[pigeon]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121101

Also from this article:

Ohio O+2
Florida O+2
Colorado R+1

 

[The Librarian]

In the latest edition of "LOL, Gallup" -

 

[Angry Grimace]

Also from this article:

Ohio O+2
Florida O+2
Colorado R+1

Also from this article:

"Obama has two-point leads among likely voters in both Ohio and Florida, leaving those races statistically tied.

Romney leads by one point in Colorado, edging Obama by 47-46 percent, effectively another dead heat."

I'd like to see more than O+2 in OH polling though. Too close for comfort.

As for Gallup, dropping unemployment from 7.9 to 7 would be huge for Obama. No clue how those figures add up.

 

[Byakuya769]

This is a major problem with Obama imo. He pretends to be some hip guy*, and I think many people vote for him based on that level of likability - but he doesn't get the job done. Politically he's like your cool cousin who has all the videogame systems before everyone else but has been working at McDonalds for a decade.


*I say "pretends" because Obama strikes me as a socks with sandals guy, deep down

Not your best effort.

 

[Officerrob]

This is a major problem with Obama imo. He pretends to be some hip guy*, and I think many people vote for him based on that level of likability - but he doesn't get the job done. Politically he's like your cool cousin who has all the videogame systems before everyone else but has been working at McDonalds for a decade.


*I say "pretends" because Obama strikes me as a socks with sandals guy, deep down

Yawn

 

[Y2Kev]

You know like when you get to the end of a video game boss after it's been really close the whole time and the game just lets you fucking wallop on the boss before he dies?

That's what this feels like. Poll after poll of +3, +4, +5.

 

[Byakuya769]

You know like when you get to the end of a video game boss after it's been really close the whole time and the game just lets you fucking wallop on the boss before he dies?

That's what this feels like. Poll after poll of +3, +4, +5.

Obamnislash.

 

[Link]

How do these rallies work exactly? I think I want to attend the Obama rally in Ft. Lauderdale on Sunday. Do I just show up of do I need to request a pass somewhere?

 

[Y2Kev]

Obamnislash.

holy shit.

 

[speculawyer]

Reuters/Ipsos VA O + 5, 49-44

Well . . . my EV map may be ruined. That's fine with me.

 

[Frank the Great]

Reuters/Ipsos VA O + 5, 49-44

 

[Guileless]

I'm still trying to figure out how ANYONE can believe this bullshit. A dictator...really?

Do these clowns realize that if Obama was trying to be a dictator he wouldn't be going through the process of having a fucking election?! And without Congress, he essentially can't do ANYTHING?!

Where were you when Naomi Wolf was writing books and making documentaries during the Bush presidency?

 

[Trurl]

You know like when you get to the end of a video game boss after it's been really close the whole time and the game just lets you fucking wallop on the boss before he dies?

That's what this feels like. Poll after poll of +3, +4, +5.

Yeah, but do you also know when you're beating the final boss and his clothes are tattered, his mouth is bloody, and he looks all but defeated, but then suddenly he starts laughing maniacally before revealing his true and most powerful form?

We're about to see mega-Mittens.

 

[Atilac]

In the latest edition of "LOL, Gallup" -

when does the next UE report come out?

 

[djplaeskool]

Obamnislash.

sogood.gif

 

[Black Republican]

how were reuters polls last election?

 

[Incognito]

something that escaped by notice is that tomorrow morning the jobs report will be released. however, as we've discussed before Obama will be the only non-BLS person to know the numbers before tomorrow's official release. therefore i believe that we should able to determine whether or not the numbers are good, and thus his election chances, based on his demeanor and tenor later this evening. needless to say, i'll be watching very carefully and scrutinizing all his passages and body language.

 

[Clevinger]

when does the next UE report come out?

tomorrow

 

[Hawkian]

something that escaped by notice is that tomorrow morning the jobs report will be released. however, as we've discussed before Obama will be the only non-BLS person to know the numbers before tomorrow's official release. therefore i believe that we should able to determine whether or not the numbers are good, and thus his election chances, based on his demeanor and tenor later this evening. needless to say, i'll be watching very carefully and scrutinizing all his passages and body language.

aw man more subtle.

 

[Atilac]

tomorrow

they release late tonight?

 

[Kusagari]

Also from this article:

Ohio O+2
Florida O+2
Colorado R+1

I'm sticking with my Obama wins every swing state except NC and CO prediction.

 

[Crisco]

Christ, Obama's swing state polls are almost back to pre-Denver levels. I hope the beer store still has the Obama Honey Ale on tap for Tuesday.

 

[jamesinclair]

Can someone explain margin of error for me?

If a poll is 49_47 with margin of 3 it's a tie because it could go either way

But now say the polls are

49_47
48_47
50_47

All Obama. By combining all the sampled, doesn't the margin drop?

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

that reuters was obviously an outlier

 

[pigeon]

Can someone explain margin of error for me?

If a poll is 49_47 with margin of 3 it's a tie because it could go either way

But now say the polls are

49_47
48_47
50_47

All Obama. By combining all the sampled, doesn't the margin drop?

Basically, yes. This is more or less how Sam Wang's entire model works, and very similar to what Nate Silver is doing.

 

[Incognito]

edit: and i see obama is wearing the Bush bomber jacket these last few days...

 

[Slime]

when does the next UE report come out?

Tomorrow. Expected to rise to 7.9%.

 

[Cloudy]

Look at the stories on Fox lol

 

[AniHawk]

Reuters/Ipsos VA O + 5, 49-44

my 'gotta good feeling about va' good feeling is feeling good.

 

[Byakuya769]

A frontpage article with the headline clearly written by Dennis Miller, and an outright lie buried below: awesome.

 

[djplaeskool]

Look at the stories on Fox lol

Bloomberg Backs Romney
*click link*
NYC Mayor Bloomberg backs Obama for re-election, citing climate change

...the fuck?

 

[PhoenixDark]

Joe Andrews, spokesman for the Ohio Department of Public Safety, which oversees the BMV, said a software glitch caused about 100,000 change-of-address notifications made on the bureau’s website not to be sent to the secretary of state’s office. The bureau began sharing address information with Husted’s office last year to help keep better tabs on the state’s voter rolls.

Andrews said the online address changes are a small percentage of those shared by the bureau and that the updated info was sent to Husted as soon as the glitch was discovered last week.

Matt McClellan, Husted’s spokesman, said of the 100,000 notifications, about 65,000 were registered voters and 32,000 of those already had updated their address information with the secretary of state’s office.

That left about 33,000 voters whose addresses possibly would not match the voter rolls. He said the office sent the updated information to the county election boards as soon as it became available.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Romney will win Ohio

 

[Trurl]

A guy on Marketplace (public radio) just said that Republican voters tend to be more highly educated. Is that true? I thought it was the opposite.

 

[The Librarian]

Tomorrow. Expected to rise to 7.9%.

Why?

 

[BobTheFork]

Reuters unchanged. Also, Newsmax went from Romney +1 to tied.

Currently, Obama leads in:

Reuters
RAND
YouGov
HighPoint
Google
CBS
National Journal

Romney leads in:
Ras

Everyone else is tied (Fox, Newsmax, ABC, UPI, Pew)

Romney clearly winning!

Responding late. Obama is leading on 538.com but I don't know if anyone uses them when poll counting. It doesn't seem especially close... The cynic in me think republicans and are to just tell people Romney has a clear lead going into the next week so they can claim some shanannigans.

 

[The Librarian]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Romney will win Ohio

Keep telling yourself that.

 

[Cloudy]

Bloomberg Backs Romney
*click link*
NYC Mayor Bloomberg backs Obama for re-election, citing climate change

...the fuck?

What about "Obama supporter says whites are going to hell"? I'm sure it was some kind of joke and not what you'd expect on the front page of a major news channel lol

 

[Byakuya769]

Responding late. Obama is leading on 538.com but I don't know if anyone uses them when poll counting. It doesn't seem especially close... The cynic in me think republicans and are to just tell people Romney has a clear lead going into the next week so they can claim some shanannigans.

BobTheFork believes that Obamacare cut the deficit and makes medicare more solvent!

 

[StopMakingSense]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Romney will win Ohio

So it's just like the CA DMV. (which has never, EVER, correctly changed my address information on my voter registration every time I have told them to)

(California in Play???)

 

[Officerrob]

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/01/glitch-held-up-absentee-ballots.html

Romney will win Ohio

Keep clicking your heels while repeating that over and over.....

 

[speculawyer]

Fox traitor

Geraldo pushes back against the Benghazi scandal factory.

Geraldo Rivera slammed the politicization of the attack in Benghazi, firing off a series of tweets while hunkered down at home in Edgewater, N.J., during Hurricane Sandy. Rivera, the Fox News contributor and "Geraldo at Large" host, criticized the controversy being pushed by some conservatives.

It's "clear no C130 gunships were available," Rivera tweeted. "Criticize coverup [but] saying White House watched [and] did nothing to help is a lie."

Rivera called the "GOP bloodlust" surrounding the Obama administration's handling of Libya "insincere," "desperate" and reminiscent of the political firestorm surrounding the "Fast and Furious" gun-walking scandal that rocked the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives in 2011.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/geraldo-benghazi-gop-bloodlust-153250132.html

I think the fact that Fox kept pushing this during hurricane Sandy shows how pathetic and desperate they have become.

 

[CaptainSchwann]

That hurricane Sandy bump kicking in right before election