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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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M

Mighty Chin

Banned
Heres another quick one I did up once the Jeep Story broke.

8145847008_b72788e388.jpg
 
E

electricpirate

Member
Man, Obama's OH polls are running ahead of Bush in 2004, and even with 2008. I'm still floored he hasn't lost any ground in OH polling in 4 years. Hopefully dat ground game gets him the 4.5% win again and an early night.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Both Ryan and Romney are actually going to Penn. now.

Would always be nice to see some latest quality polls to put this to bed. Of course the good part here is that the Christie-Obama love fest should help Obama in PA.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
electricpirate said:
Man, Obama's OH polls are running ahead of Bush in 2004, and even with 2008. I'm still floored he hasn't lost any ground in OH polling in 4 years. Hopefully dat ground game gets him the 4.5% win again and an early night.
Click to expand...

Racial attiudes in the midwest are very different from the rest of the country (meaning in states where it's 75% to 80% white). Also, the auto bailout is a big deal around here
 
L

Loudninja

Member
Romney’s Virigina Supporters Hope For Victory, But Fear Obama May Pull Through
“I’m cautiously optimistic,” Errol Hoffler, 72, told TPM, citing Obama’s struggles to win over independent voters in the polls. But he still had his concerns over what he acknowledged was a tight race.

“He’s ignoring the Constitution, trying to become a dictator and make us dependent on the government,” he said. “I don’t think a good portion of America realizes what he’s doing — if they did he’d lose in a landslide.”

Sandra Thornton, a retired school secretary, said she felt “very positive” about Romney and thought he had more energy on his side compared to Obama, who she believed had faded in stature since 2008. But the jury was still out on whether it was enough to win.

“This is really the first election I’ve felt absolutely terrified,” Thornton said. “Fox is trying desperately to make it out to be a Romney landslide, but I’m nervous.”

The biggest hurdle Thornton feared was Obama’s continued likability. “He has the charisma,” she said. “But he’s a liar.”

This was a popular concern. Kurt Johnson, 62, a who works in the chemical business in the Richmond area, said he was “enthusiastic” about the election but worried too many people see Obama as “hip, cool, and sympathetic.”

“Michael Jordan could be president on that basis,” he said. “I don’t mean to sound glib, but are we electing someone to know the top hip hop songs — or to get the job done?”

Steve Mills, who works in the energy industry, told TPM that he believed Romney’s debate performance had put him in position to win, but that “it’s going to be close — I’m naturally concerned, but hopeful.”

Lisa Beazley, 51, said she was “praying very hard and hoping people have common sense” ahead of election day. The stakes felt especially high for her, having lost her job as a medical assistant earlier in the year.

“I wasn’t looking for a miracle, it’s a tough job,” she said of the president. “But [the recovery] is just not here.”

Beazley hoped Romney would make “big changes” in health care and economic policy, but she was afraid Obama’s message might have too big a following to put a Republican in office.

“I still worry Obama has a shot,” she said. “There’s a lot of people out there that do depend on the welfare system and it worries me. I’m not saying I’m against the system — we all need it from time to time — but you also have to help yourself. You can’t be on it forever.”
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http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/romney-virginia-rally.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Wow.
 
T

TacticalFox88

Banned
“He’s ignoring the Constitution, trying to become a dictator and make us dependent on the government,” he said. “I don’t think a good portion of America realizes what he’s doing — if they did he’d lose in a landslide.”
Click to expand...

I'm still trying to figure out how ANYONE can believe this bullshit. A dictator...really?

Do these clowns realize that if Obama was trying to be a dictator he wouldn't be going through the process of having a fucking election?! And without Congress, he essentially can't do ANYTHING?!
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
cartoon_soldier said:
Both Ryan and Romney are actually going to Penn. now.

Would always be nice to see some latest quality polls to put this to bed. Of course the good part here is that the Christie-Obama love fest should help Obama in PA.
Click to expand...

They don't have a choice. Their best hope is an out-of-left-field flip like PA that upsets the entire electoral table, so why the fuck not. Going toe to toe with the Obama campaign in the Midwest just stalls the polls where they are there. Which they're currently losing anyway.

It's the definition of a Hail Mary pass.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
I always laugh at people saying Obama is making us dependent on government.

Newsflash dumbasses: you already are dependent on government.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Loudninja said:
This was a popular concern. Kurt Johnson, 62, a who works in the chemical business in the Richmond area, said he was “enthusiastic” about the election but worried too many people see Obama as “hip, cool, and sympathetic.”

“Michael Jordan could be president on that basis,” he said. “I don’t mean to sound glib, but are we electing someone to know the top hip hop songs — or to get the job done?”
Click to expand...
http://2012.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/romney-virginia-rally.php?ref=fpnewsfeed

Wow.
Click to expand...

In other words, Obama is a n*****. And it was a popular concern.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Joe Shlabotnik said:
They don't have a choice. Their best hope is an out-of-left-field flip like PA that upsets the entire electoral table, so why the fuck not. Going toe to toe with the Obama campaign in the Midwest just stalls the polls where they are there. Which they're currently losing anyway.

It's the definition of a Hail Mary pass.
Click to expand...

I honestly don't think they're hoping for a magic PA flip. I think they're hoping to send the message that Romney's winning errywhere. It's a tactical decision based on the fact that rallies are utterly irrelevant.
 
R

Raine

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
They don't have a choice. Their best hope is an out-of-left-field flip like PA that upsets the entire electoral table, so why the fuck not. Going toe to toe with the Obama campaign in the Midwest just stalls the polls where they are there. Which they're currently losing anyway.

It's the definition of a Hail Mary pass.
Click to expand...

This. Obama has too many paths to 270 where they have very little without Ohio. They see that they're losing there and want to get another state in play. The only state they can honestly feel somewhat confident in is NC. They're desperate.
 
K

Kinvara

Member
TacticalFox88 said:
I'm still trying to figure out how ANYONE can believe this bullshit. A dictator...really?

Do these clowns realize that if Obama was trying to be a dictator he wouldn't be going through the process of having a fucking election?! And without Congress, he essentially can't do ANYTHING?!
Click to expand...

I wonder what will these people think once Obama goes home after his 2nd term is finished.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Cloudy said:
.
Click to expand...

Obama continues to gain across the board in every poll not done by Wenzler. I would like to see some Pennsylvania polls but I'm frankly unconvinced.

Nate Cohn has a whole article on this topic also:

tnr said:
With just one week before next Tuesday’s presidential election, the Romney campaign has apparently decided to embark on a last-minute effort to win the Keystone State. But while Pennsylvania is always tempting for Republicans, there's a reason Democrats always seem to win by a slight margin. And despite Obama's weakness in coal country, that pattern seems likely to endure through this election....

Romney could do much better than McCain in western Pennsylvania and in the Philadelphia suburbs, but it’s hard to get Romney over the top. In 2004, Bush lost Pennsylvania by 145,000 votes or 2.5 percent. But an increase in black turnout and support for Obama would have increased Kerry’s margin by an additional 160,000 votes. Much of this came from Philadelphia, where Obama’s margin grew by 66,000 votes. But Obama’s strong performance among black voters also helped his standing in Delaware and Dauphin Counties, where Obama’s performance was actually the best by a Democratic presidential candidate in the history of those two counties.

While the Romney campaign says they’re faring well in the Philadelphia suburbs and will probably do better than McCain’s performance four years ago, it’s hard to imagine that they’ll do better than Bush. After all, Obama is doing better than Kerry in states like Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina, where Obama’s improvements are driven in part by strength in diverse and well-educated suburbs not too dissimilar from Montgomery, Delaware, or Chester Counties. With Obama doing better than Kerry among college-educated voters, wealthy voters, and in affluent states, the better bet is that Obama does better than Kerry outside of Philadelphia, even if far worse than Obama did in 2008....

Bush won coal country by 13 points in 2004 and Romney will get a head start in the western Pennsylvania counties where McCain actually did better than Bush four years ago. But netting hundreds of thousands of votes in these counties probably isn’t going to happen. With only around one million votes in Pennsylvania coal country in 2008, it would take a complete collapse of Obama’s standing to generate the 300,000 votes necessary to outweigh Kerry’s lead and Obama’s gains among black voters, let alone the possibility that Obama outperforms Kerry in the Philadelphia suburbs. Even if Romney has an extraordinary performance yielding an extra 150,000 votes in coal country—outperforming Bush by a net-15 percent—he’ll need to find gains elsewhere in the state. And of course, it's an open question whether Romney can make massive gains in these areas. Although Obama is unpopular in coal country, a wealthy financier is hardly a perfect fit for populist and traditionally Democratic voters considering voting for a Republican presidential candidate for the first time.

And although there are a few areas—northeastern Pennsylvania (Scranton!), Allegheny County—where Romney could easily improve over Bush’s performance, it’s hard to find enough voters for Romney to go over the top. Obama won’t fall far (if at all) beneath Bush in rural (but populous) York and Lancaster counties, where Obama has always held unusual appeal. And the Lehigh Valley, Reading, and Philadelphia exurbs have been transformed by a surging Hispanic population over the last decade. Incredibly, Hispanics now represent 19 percent of the population in Lehigh County, home to Allentown, and 16 percent of Reading’s Berks County. If Romney isn’t likely to make considerable improvements over Bush's performance in rural southeast, Reading, the Lehigh Valley, the Philadelphia suburbs, and Philadelphia, his burden elsewhere in the state probably becomes just too great.

It's easy to understand why Romney would invest in Pennsylvania. Like Missouri or North Carolina for Democrats, Pennsylvania is what I call a “spreadsheet state.” When you start plugging in favorable numbers for the traditionally disadvantaged party, it’s too easy to get up to 48 percent of the vote, or even more. But those final hundred thousand votes are incredibly difficult and require something extraordinary...
Click to expand...

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/109397/romneys-math-problem-in-pennsylvania
 
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