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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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M

MasterShotgun

brazen editing lynx
Yay tracking polls.

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-48 based on our national tracking Tuesday-Thursday night. Had been down 1 before
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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Obama's seen a 3 pt improvement in his net approval over the last week from -5 at 46/51 to -2 at 48/50
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PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Obama's reduced Romney's lead with independents from 8 pts to 3 pts over the last 4 days
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J

Juice

Member
Chichikov said:
Agreed, and the bolded is a very good point.
He of all people should know better.
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Making a bet doesn't seem certain to me.

I thought he was trying to make a point that 80% != " toss up" which != 50/50. To call out that fallacy, he offered a bet as a counter example to the weather analogy. You take the better odds, of course.
 
C

Chichikov

Member
Juice said:
Making a bet doesn't seem certain to me.

I thought he was trying to make a point that 80% != " toss up" which != 50/50. To call out that fallacy, he offered a bet as a counter example to the weather analogy. You take the better odds, of course.
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I'm sure that was his intention, I just think he did a poor job getting it through.

And again, I don't think it's a huge deal.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Squirrel Killer said:
Unless you're a political professional, the only thing (politically) more worthless than obsessing over daily polling is obsessing over incoming poll results (i.e. "We're up 20% with 2% of precincts reporting! We're going win!!")
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I'm shocked, SHOCKED to find poll-obsessing in this establishment!

good post
 
A

Arrowgigantic

Member
People don't understand that when 538 was at 87%, that meant that no matter what that from then on we were either in the 87 out of 100 scenarios where Obama wins, or in the 13 out of 100 scenarios where Romney wins.

It should be clear that we're in one of the 87 scenarios. What the current score of 81% means is that we aren't in a portion of those 87 scenarios. It's hard to imagine that any of Romney's 13% of scenarios involves still polling like this.

/reversetroll
 
T

Trurl

Banned
Chichikov said:
I'm sure that was his intention, I just think he did a poor job getting it through.

And again, I don't think it's a huge deal.
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I for one am a bit ashamed for bringing up the "old media" label. It's just that I'll always see Nate as an independent blogger and at first blush the criticism as presented seemed arrogant. I'd take the best parts of the old media over websites like Huff-Po any day of the week.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
sillymonkey321 said:
I told my father that and his response was a gop talking point of " but obama really meant that people didn't build their businesses"

Fox News Update: Greta,Talking about Libya, ignoring the CIA timeline. Panelist praising Fox for "going after the truth" and decrying the lack of journalists investigating this.
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But two sentences later he explicitly complements the hard work and determination of people creating their own businesses.
 
J

jamesinclair

Banned
Trurl said:
I for one am a bit ashamed for bringing up the "old media" label. It's just that I'll always see Nate as an independent blogger and at first blush the criticism as presented seemed arrogant. I'd take the best parts of the old media over websites like Huff-Po any day of the week.
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Old media (my Washington post jacket) kept me safe during the hurricane
 
T

Tendo

Member
My BP was 162 over something today when I left work.

He's got this. Right guys? Right? The sheer possibility of a Romney win is making me ill. And educators whose jobs will be affected just loooooove ol' Mittens. If I have to pretend to like Mitt for 4 years while he decimates this country I'll implode.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
speculawyer said:
Well . . . it is. 4 more years of getting bitched at, death threats, endless harassment by Fox, long hours, etc. There is no way I'd take the job.
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i
Honestly don't know why anyone would want to be president. You work like a madman, age fast, have you and your family criticized about everything, lose all privacy. I'd much rather just be a cabinet member or adviser.
 
T

Thequietone

Member
NBC/ABC/CBS/CNN/MSNBC: Obama has won the election.

Fox: Romney won. Our map shows the true winner is Romney and the election has been rigged.

Poligaf: Bad news for Obama.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Cheebo said:
Yeah but what if his approval numbers fall below 50 on the Wednesday after the election in the Gallup daily tracker?
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He's screwed for his re-election in 2016 after he rips up the constitution and runs for perpetual muslim atheist nazi dictatorship like his idol Chavez
 
A

AniHawk

Member
i know i'm late, but 538 showing an ec win that's basically all the swing states, including va, right where i had it... that's awesome. let's do it.
 
Squirrel Killer

Squirrel Killer

Member
Tendo said:
My BP was 162 over something today when I left work.

He's got this. Right guys? Right? The sheer possibility of a Romney win is making me ill. And educators whose jobs will be affected just loooooove ol' Mittens. If I have to pretend to like Mitt for 4 years while he decimates this country I'll implode.
Click to expand...
Sit down, take a deep breath, stay frosty, vote if you haven't already, encourage your family, friends, and strangers you suspect will vote for your guy to vote, relax, tune out even, and stop visiting this thread. Your health is more important than fussing over who's going to win.
 
E

el retorno

Member
Kusagari said:
I actually bet Fox calls it before CNN.

CNN will be the last to call it.

Dead heat and all that jazz.
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Nah actually come election night its actually a race to be the quickest. People want to know first and they can brag "CNN viewers were the first to hear of Obama's relection, watch CNN. watch breaking news" or some other type of ad like that.
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Fox News covering Libya isn't surprising but its not going to gain any traction with the wreckage of Sandy sitting there and the election 4 days out. I mean ffs it wasn't gaining traction BEFORE Sandy and frankly, Fox doesn't have a better story now or more evidence than it did then. It's just harping on it at an inappropriate time.
 
E

ErasureAcer

Banned
Angry Grimace said:
Fox News covering Libya isn't surprising but its not going to gain any traction with the wreckage of Sandy sitting there and the election 4 days out. I mean ffs it wasn't gaining traction BEFORE Sandy and frankly, Fox doesn't have a better story now or more evidence than it did then. It's just harping on it at an inappropriate time.
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How can FOX still be covering Libya? That shit happened almost 2 months ago now and Obama did nothing wrong!
 
E

Effect

Member
Angry Grimace said:
Fox News covering Libya isn't surprising but its not going to gain any traction with the wreckage of Sandy sitting there and the election 4 days out. I mean ffs it wasn't gaining traction BEFORE Sandy and frankly, Fox doesn't have a better story now or more evidence than it did then. It's just harping on it at an inappropriate time.
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What I don't understand is why they keep at it. It's just preaching to the choir at this point with them. Actually I think it could do damage since they keep talking about it over and over again it could make some of their viewers try reading up on it on their own and they'll see what Fox is ignoring and how they're trying to spin it.
 
T

Tendo

Member
Squirrel Killer said:
Sit down, take a deep breath, stay frosty, vote if you haven't already, encourage your family, friends, and strangers you suspect will vote for your guy to vote, relax, tune out even, and stop visiting this thread. Your health is more important than fussing over who's going to win.
Click to expand...

Been doing calls through the dashboard. Know personally at least 12 people in NC voting Obama that were voting Romney before I talked with them. Super proud of a few of those that I talked with.

I guess, as an educator, I'm super disappointed in the populace of our country. I thought we were better than this. Big mistake. Hearing teachers talk about increasing military spending but cutting health care, especially as "Christians" blows my mind. So these people are ok increasing debt and spending to bomb more people halfway around the world because they worship a different book than your book, but you won't heal your own American brothers and sisters?

I'm ranting again. I need to go work on my drinking problem.

Oh and this week started our global warming unit. So that has been fun.

I think I need to move. :( Sorry for spamming the thread with livejournal dribble.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
Know what will be the best part of Tuesday? PoliGAF freaking out about the exit poll numbers when they start leaking out that afternoon.
 
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