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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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E

el retorno

Member
Diablos said:
I know
but

GODDAM I JUST DON'T TRUST THE GOP

PLEASE WIN VA+CO+NV+IA IN CASE OH OR SOME OTHER STATE GETS CRAZY

omg please get here Nov 6

Rzbgq.jpg
Click to expand...

xanax-24937_2.jpg
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.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
dean chambers sounds like the bad guy in an animal house type film.

nate silver sounds like the guy who was secretly the bad guy all along in a superhero movie.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Diablos said:
I know
but

GODDAM I JUST DON'T TRUST THE GOP

PLEASE WIN VA+CO+NV+IA IN CASE OH OR SOME OTHER STATE GETS CRAZY

omg please get here Nov 6

http://i.imgur.com/Rzbgq.jpg
Click to expand...

This Princeton Nueroscientist and operator of election.princeton.edu will eat a bug if Romney takes OH, IA, *or* WI.
S_Wang.jpg


Sam Wang @JaneGrissom, everybody's watching Ohio. They're not sending teams of crack polling-station monitors to Princeton, NJ, you know. If Romney takes OH, IA, *or* WI, I'll eat a bug and send you the photo of me doing it.
Click to expand...

What more do you need?
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Prediction:

+150k jobs, upward revisions of prior months, 7.9% unemployment. Based on nothing.

See you on the other side of the last jobs report before the election.
 
E

eBay Huckster

Member
another prediction: these numbers will have exactly zero effect (MoE +/- 1.5%) on the election's results

third prediction: now that i'm finally done with that application i am going to get plastered at least once in the next five days
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
border said:
The multitude of communications options is what makes the bubble possible, though. Everyone has 101 different news sources to choose from now, and ultimately they choose the sources that do not conflict with their world view. They check their handful of preferred sources 5 times a day, and conclude that's a relevant survey of public opinion....even if those news sources are highly biased and relentlessly pandering to a particular own world view.

And sometimes I wonder if the shoe were on the other foot and 538 heavily favored Romney, would some liberal equivalent of UnskewedPolls be the flavor of the day at GAF?
Click to expand...

I really doubt it.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Diablos said:
LOL.

I DO NOT TRUST THE GOP. We are assuming all of these projections given a FAIR election. The GOP is no doubt doing everything they can to make it work for them.
Click to expand...

it's been over. the signs are all there.

-mitt and crew heading off to minnesota, pennsylvania, and michigan
-concern over faulty machinery
-anger at chris christie for cooperating with obama
-relief rallies

the romney campaign hasn't got a shot in ohio. they couldn't afford to take a day off due to sandy. they don't think they can win, so they're trying other states as a last resort. and now conservatives are already starting the blame game. faulty machinery? chris christie helping obama look good?

it's over. they know it's over. just cast your vote, go home, and enjoy the ride.
 
A

AniHawk

Member
border said:
And sometimes I wonder if the shoe were on the other foot and 538 heavily favored Romney, would some liberal equivalent of UnskewedPolls be the flavor of the day at GAF?
Click to expand...

i think people still followed 538 even when it looked like it would be a blowout in 2010.

also, people still followed 538 even when shit was looking bad after the first debate.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Can't wait until Nate's model shows a clear republican win, perhaps in 2016. I've seen a few DailyKos diary posts where the older folks basically say "Nate may be right but GOTV is more important!" I'd imagine those types of arguments would be more prominent and angry/aggressive. That being said, I doubt actual liberal bloggers or Kos himself would play along - if Nate says you're fucked, you probably are
 
A

AniHawk

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Can't wait until Nate's model shows a clear republican win, perhaps in 2016. I've seen a few DailyKos diary posts where the older folks basically say "Nate may be right but GOTV is more important!" I'd imagine those types of arguments would be more prominent and angry/aggressive. That being said, I doubt actual liberal bloggers or Kos himself would play along - if Nate says you're fucked, you probably are
Click to expand...

which republican candidate is beating hillary?
 
D

Diablos

Member
Rubio.

And it'll be reminiscent of the Hillary vs. Obama days -- young, ultra charismatic politician vs. semi-old lady (who will be VERY old in 2016)

I don't know if he'd beat her but 2016 could very well be that assuming Obama gets a second term
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
If Hillary runs, she wins (barring a disastrous second Obama term of course). The CBO report on 12mil jobs bodes well for the democrat party, assuming it's not fucked up by obstruction or a war. At the same time it's worth noting that Gore lost after a very successful 8 years of Clinton. Who knows where the American people will be at in 2016, but I'd imagine Hillary will still be this nation's favorite daughter, and she'll be ready to serve as she always has.

If, of course, she runs. Sadly I'm starting to get the impression she's done with national politics. Imagine if Chelsea has a kid in the next few years...Hillary will probably cherish the role of being a grandmother, and I wouldn't blame her for giving politics up for good to spend her days with her family.
 
D

Diablos

Member
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...927312c-2453-11e2-ac85-e669876c6a24_blog.html

Is mother nature a Romney staffer this year?

Another storm is exactly what the mid-Atlantic and Northeast coast don’t need. But the European Centre Medium Range Forecast (EURO) model is forecasting exactly that this time next week.

The EURO, which sniffed out Sandy 8 days before it hit, shows an area of low pressure developing off the Georgia/South Carolina coast the night of the election (November 6), and then moving up the coast into New England by Wednesday night.

NOAA’s Hydrometeorological Prediction Center leads its extended forecast discussion with the headline:

...NOR’EASTER POSSIBLE FOR MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND STATES BY ELECTION DAY INTO NEXT THURSDAY...

The simulated storm - while much weaker than Sandy - shows moderate rains and gusty (not damaging) winds in the same areas hit so hard earlier this week. It also shows some potential for snow on the interior.

These conditions would obviously hamper clean-up efforts in areas afflicted by Sandy’s coastal flooding and raise the seas again, but to a much lesser degree.

The U.S. GFS model also simulates a storm in that time frame, but it stays far enough out to sea to mostly spare the mid-Atlantic before curving inland in southern New England.

Exact track details and, thus, the localized impacts of the storm are not possible to pin down at this range. But once again, the overall pattern shows the potential for a storm that would bring wind, rain, and inland snow to parts of the mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast.
Click to expand...
*facepalm*
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
AniHawk said:
it's been over. the signs are all there.

-mitt and crew heading off to minnesota, pennsylvania, and michigan
-concern over faulty machinery
-anger at chris christie for cooperating with obama
-relief rallies

the romney campaign hasn't got a shot in ohio. they couldn't afford to take a day off due to sandy. they don't think they can win, so they're trying other states as a last resort. and now conservatives are already starting the blame game. faulty machinery? chris christie helping obama look good?

it's over. they know it's over. just cast your vote, go home, and enjoy the ride.
Click to expand...

They can always "hope" the jobs numbers get bad, but the jobs numbers tend to not get worse around Oct - Jan.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
I just finished some Morning Joe/Hardball segments, just to get a sense of what folks are saying. I'm most struck by what people aren't saying: we're looking at billions of dollars worth of damage that needs to be repaired, after a contentious election. Everyone is getting along now, but very soon there will be a fight over his much this will cost and how will we pay for it. Luckily NJ and NY house some of the most powerful politicians but even that won't make this a smooth process.

Meanwhile the "fiscal cliff" arrives on January first. That fight will be tough too, with republicans likely refusing to accept any tax increases. Then there's the debt ceiling, which we'll reach sooner due to storm relief.
 
K

Keikaku

Member
Diablos said:
It's just a projection, could move up to Mon/Tues for all we know
Click to expand...
At least PD is entertaining, you're just annoying. Now it's not the GOP stealing elections, it's Mother Nature! Lo, the heavens watch Fox News!

Time for the ignore list. Please, everyone else, don't quote him.
 
Angry Fork

Angry Fork

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I just finished some Morning Joe/Hardball segments, just to get a sense of what folks are saying. I'm most struck by what people aren't saying: we're looking at billions of dollars worth of damage that needs to be repaired, after a contentious election. Everyone is getting along now, but very soon there will be a fight over his much this will cost and how will we pay for it. Luckily NJ and NY house some of the most powerful politicians but even that won't make this a smooth process.

Meanwhile the "fiscal cliff" arrives on January first. That fight will be tough too, with republicans likely refusing to accept any tax increases. Then there's the debt ceiling, which we'll reach sooner due to storm relief.
Click to expand...

Just take 100 mil from every NY billionaire.
 
O

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
A

Aaron

Member
Diablos said:
Rubio.

And it'll be reminiscent of the Hillary vs. Obama days -- young, ultra charismatic politician vs. semi-old lady (who will be VERY old in 2016)

I don't know if he'd beat her but 2016 could very well be that assuming Obama gets a second term
Click to expand...
Rubio isn't going to do anything outside of Florida. Saying 'charismatic' gives him too much credit. Throwing in 'ultra' is just crazy talk.
 
M

Mgoblue201

Won't stop picking the right nation
538 shows that Romney's chances peaked on October 12th and have slowly receded over time, but according to Google Trends, the idea that Romney had any momentum didn't show up in the news until October 23rd. Looks like a media creation to me.
 
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