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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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T

The Librarian

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Can't wait until Nate's model shows a clear republican win, perhaps in 2016. I've seen a few DailyKos diary posts where the older folks basically say "Nate may be right but GOTV is more important!" I'd imagine those types of arguments would be more prominent and angry/aggressive. That being said, I doubt actual liberal bloggers or Kos himself would play along - if Nate says you're fucked, you probably are
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So why haven't I seen you admit this about yourself? Are you an exception?
Keikaku said:
At least PD is entertaining, you're just annoying. Now it's not the GOP stealing elections, it's Mother Nature! Lo, the heavens watch Fox News!

Time for the ignore list. Please, everyone else, don't quote him.
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Maybe before, but he's no longer.
 
J

jmls1121

Banned
redstate was amazing this morning, with Erik Erickson going after Nate Silver as well. One of the commentators called Obama the "butcher of Bhangazi". wtf?
 
J

jmls1121

Banned
norinrad said:
They won't be saying that if the president was a republican. Show what sort of despicable low lives they are
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At first, I tried in my head comparing it to 9/11 and calling W the "butcher of New York."

But that's not what they are doing. Its not about negligence on Obama's part. Over on redstate they actually believe Obama was behind the attack, or at least actively supporting it. So I ask again...WTF?
 
S

Slime

Banned
CNN is saying unemployment is expected to rise to 7.9, as well. Damn.

Hoping for a surprise. 90 minutes 'til we find out.
 
S

Slime

Banned
syllogism said:
The numbers have a margin of error of 0.2 so it's all quite pointless
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It is. Unfortunately a lot of voters are just going to see the visual and swallow whichever spin they want. It's just a crappy bit of news to get a few days before the election, as c_s said.
 
T

The Librarian

Banned
Slime said:
It is. Unfortunately a lot of voters are just going to see the visual and swallow whichever spin they want. It's just a crappy bit of news to get a few days before the election, as c_s said.
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Please. It's not going to mean anything. There was a .1 rise in unemployment in August or July or some months back and it didn't do anything to alter the race.

Do not overhype this report.
 
B

Black Republican

Member
wasnt sure, but wow looks like Mia love will beat rep Jim Matheson the lone dem in Utah

A new Salt Lake Tribune poll finds challenger Mia Love (R) leading Rep. Jim Matheson (R) by double-digits in her challenge for his congressional seat, 52% to 40%.

Said pollster Brad Coker: "Romney is winning [Utah] by such a big margin and Republican voters are coming out because of Romney. It's just not a good year to be a Democrat in Utah."
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http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/11/02/love_holds_big_lead_over_matheson_in_utah.html
 
M

Measley

Junior Member
The attack on Nate Silver's fact-based analysis has been pretty ridiculous and childish.

It just shows how far our media has sunk in the last 20 years.
 
M

maximum360

Member
PhoenixDark said:
Interesting comment from a TPM reader concerning the Nate Silver/NYT dust up

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/11/twilight_du_doucherie.php?ref=fpblg

We've discussed this for awhile, and I continue to believe the stats driven analysis will never take hold of TV punditry. TV news is built around the idea of breaking news: something happens in the country and every journalist scrambles to react as fast as possible. The problem with Nate Silver, PEC, etc is that they pull the veil off what has always been described as a "horse race" and reveal that it resembles more of a chess match. Elections don't swing day to day, nor do comments or gaffes move the needle as quickly as pundits tend to tell us. Nate's model has largely looked the same for months. How does that type of stability translate into a typical hyperactive news cycle of pundits?

Consider this laughable glimpse into the mind of a pundit
http://thepage.time.com/2012/11/01/potential-tipping-point/

"I’m going to take a risk here and peel back the curtain to tell you what insiders are thinking." As if they are the only people capable of such insight, or that no one else is privy to the secret sauce they possess. No wonder these people are so threatened by Nate - he told people this secret weeks ago. Look, my views on who will win are well known but let's face it - the numbers favor Obama right now; they have favored Obama for most of the race. Romney made major gains after the first debate, it remains to be seen if that was enough to win this for him...but the fact remains Obama is sitting in a better position RIGHT NOW than Romney, and that has been the case for days; no, it didn't magically occur once Sandy hit. Who needs Halperin to tell them that, outside of a low info voter, or that guy who casually watches MSNBC while working out at the gym?

Nate is a threat and is being treated like one by the media, but it's more about pride and credibility than relevancy or ratings. Those low info voters will continue watching TV news, and TV news will continue entertaining them; because that's ultimately what it's all about.
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In bold, one of the dumbest guys on tv. He's Morning Joe's version of PD (not the intelligence but awful predictions).
 
S

Salazar

Member
FleckSplat said:
How is that the kid's fault?
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How do you read that implication ?

Margaret Sullivan said:
But whatever the motivation behind it, the wager offer is a bad idea – giving ammunition to the critics who want to paint Mr. Silver as a partisan who is trying to sway the outcome.
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The point is that partisan dipshits can use anything, or indeed nothing as ammunition, Margaret. Wake the fuck up.
 
P

polyh3dron

Banned
Measley said:
The attack on Nate Silver's fact-based analysis has been pretty ridiculous and childish.

It just shows how far our media has sunk in the last 20 years.
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Reality's liberal bias grows larger by the year.

And yes, jobs report any minute now.

Edit: I was wrong, jobs report will be out at 8:30am eastern.
 
F

FleckSplat

Member
Salazar said:
How do you read that implication ?.
Click to expand...

He said he was a moron and a racist, then said his name was Eric Erickson. I thought he was saying he was a moron and racist because of his name...silly me.

This is a thread derail, which I didn't intend for it to become.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Oh man from Krugthulu's newest op-ed in the Times:

The Blackmail Caucus

But are we ready to become a country in which “Nice country you got here. Shame if something were to happen to it” becomes a winning political argument? I hope not. By all means, vote for Mr. Romney if you think he offers the better policies. But arguing for Mr. Romney on the grounds that he could get things done veers dangerously close to accepting protection-racket politics, which have no place in American life.

Dropping the Minecraft creeper meme on the grey lady op-ed pages. Even if it wasn't intentional,it's pretty appropriate. Arguing that Romney would be more effective because he could exert control over the GOP congress is just silly-he showed in the primaries that he could have positions every bit as nutter as they have.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Here we are, the last scheduled event of any consequence in this election (however small): the final jobs numbers.

It reminds me of that feeling you get when you're returning home from a long, exhausting vacation, you're asleep in the backseat, and your brain knows you've arrived home just because the car has slowed down and made a turn into the driveway.
 
R

Rocket Scientist

Member
Cool, thanks. Yesterday I was a bit worried that the shit in Libya might propel Libya into the news again, but reading the last few pages that doesn't seem to have happened. Good.
 
I

ISOM

Member
Keikaku said:
Bite them in the ass? That implies that these numbers will cost Dems the election. I think it's safe to say that they won't.
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Unless unemployment shoots up to 10%, these numbers will not affect anything. At this late of a stage the election is pretty much set.
 
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