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[ryutaro's mama]

If there is a Romney concession speech, will Palin try and finally speak at it?

 

[Hawkian]

So I flew down to Florida and I've been knocking on doors all week.

I think we can win this state. Believe.

Where in Florida?

 

[metalslimer]

So I flew down to Florida and I've been knocking on doors all week.

I think we can win this state. Believe.

Why so much emphasis on Florida? Is it just so Obama's victory can be that much greater?

 

[ISOM]

Basically, I take PPP with a grain of salt because as far as I can tell its just liberal Rasmussen. PPP, like Rasmussen is an automated polling service that can't dial cell phones.

How is ppp's historical polling accuracy? I think they are pretty accurate based on past voting models.

 

[Angry Grimace]

To be fair, accurate polling is very difficult since most pollsters have proprietary formulas for determining the "true" response rate.

HuffPo ran an article a few months back which tried to explain why Gallup has consistently shown a Romney bias (well before they even launched a LV model)

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/...ack-obama_n_1589937.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

 

[Kusagari]

So I flew down to Florida and I've been knocking on doors all week.

I think we can win this state. Believe.

If everyone who wants to vote can then Bama will.

 

[Y2Kev]

Ppp has a smaller Lean now. I think that's old.

 

[HylianTom]

Another take on house effects..

 

[ISOM]

Why so much emphasis on Florida? Is it just so Obama's victory can be that much greater?

Hedging bets im guessing why abandon florida when it's winnable.

 

[Hawkian]

Why so much emphasis on Florida? Is it just so Obama's victory can be that much greater?

We have an awful lot of electoral votes my friend.

 

[Mario]

God I hate the faces Mitt Romney makes. He does this eye roll thing where he flips his head to the side while making speeches that drives me crazy. He tends to do it every time he says "12 million new jobs."

I can't say I have seen him speak at length without most of his expressions coming across as forced. His smiles generally look so disingenuous.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Ppp has a smaller Lean now. I think that's old.

Even if it is, look at all those Right leaning polls Obama trails in...oh wait.

 

[markatisu]

Even if it is, look at all those Right leaning polls Obama trails in...oh wait.

.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Basically, I take PPP with a grain of salt because as far as I can tell its just liberal Rasmussen. PPP, like Rasmussen is an automated polling service that can't dial cell phones.

PPP has a pretty solid track record though. Nate calculates house effects relative to other polls.

He also said recently that PPP's house effect is only about half a point in favor of the Democrats.

 

[Clevinger]

Is that from 2008?

this year, early in the general election

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...g-firms/?gwh=9136AFF343C73D163691180B07C45F31

 

[Angry Grimace]

Ppp has a smaller Lean now. I think that's old.

It is, that is from I believe July. It's the first one I could find, I don't think Nate has really talked about it since then. I don't think PPP was a known quantity in 2008 so who knows about their historical practices.

 

[CarbonatedFalcon]

Don't know if this was posted (or anyone else saw it), but lol:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/cnn-national-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney/?hpt=hp_t2

/CNN

 

[Oblivion]

Is it this one?

Goddamn, he can be a mopey motherfucker.

Hahaha.

 

[Forever]

Where in Florida?

Sarasota.

Why so much emphasis on Florida? Is it just so Obama's victory can be that much greater?

I like the weather down here. Especially since I bugged out right before Sandy hit.

I also think we can win it.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Basically, I take PPP with a grain of salt because as far as I can tell its just liberal Rasmussen. PPP, like Rasmussen is an automated polling service that can't dial cell phones.

And yet GAF reviles Ras lol

 

[jbug617]

so tomorrow we get Ras's final poll?

 

[Hawkian]

Sarasota.


I like the weather down here. Especially since I bugged out right before Sandy hit.

I also think we can win it.

Awesome.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Don't know if this was posted (or anyone else saw it), but lol:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/cnn-national-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney/?hpt=hp_t2

/CNN

It's actually becoming not funny and sort of annoying that CNN simply refuses to report the news and just spends practically all of its time trying to paint everything as having two sides. There isn't two sides to the story that Romney is losing in the polls right now. It's a fact, not a political opinion. CNN is literally worthless now.

And yet GAF reviles Ras lol

That was only for the particular cycle then. Nate Silver has reported multiple times on the fact that Rasmussen has a significant pro-Republican slant.

 

[Suikoguy]

Sarasota.


I like the weather down here. Especially since I bugged out right before Sandy hit.

I also think we can win it.

I live 30 minutes south of there

Weather has been nice for several days now.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

It's actually becoming not funny and sort of annoying that CNN simply refuses to report the news and just spends practically all of its time trying to paint everything as having two sides. There isn't two sides to the story that Romney is losing in the polls right now. It's a fact, not a political opinion. CNN is literally worthless now.

Yeah well, when you are way behind in the ratings and you want viewership to think you're fair, things like this happen.

 

[Hawkian]

The usual baloney arrives here in Sarasota County, with the Supervisor of Elections ignoring state law, and making up her own rules for the administration of the election. First, they set up the North Port early voting office so that none of the poll watchers can observe the polling machines, even though state law provides that each candidate can have a poll watcher in the polling room during the voting. We negotiate, and get a chair outside the polling room, so we don't go to the Canvassing Board. I leave, and they now make the Democratic Poll Watchers sit away from any view of the polling. This directly violates state law.
Part 2. Early voting is in a very few sites in Sarasota County, and this morning there were long lines and waits. Don't you know, the site in Newton, an african american community loses its electricity this afternoon. How convenient. Remember, Kathy Dent, whose focused incompetence led to the thousands of undervotes that put Vern Buchanan into the house of representatives. Florida hasn't changed in 12 years, and it will be a fight here to keep the vote honest.

Keep the lines long.

 

[Tendo]

It'll be interesting to hear the possible concession speech from Romney.

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

 

[Tim-E]

If nothing else, the entire news media panting the election as being a dead heat means that less people will get too confident and not show up.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Yeah well, when you are way behind in the ratings and you want viewership to think you're fair, things like this happen.

The problem here is that they literally don't report the news, they report reactions to the news.

If nothing else, the entire news media panting the election as being a dead heat means that less people will get too confident and not show up.

I don't know, I've seen lots of reports that Romney is (currently) losing, just not on CNN.

 

[PhoenixDark]

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

Depending on how close things are in states with GOP governors, I wouldn't be surprised if he refused to concede until multiple recounts are done.

 

[speculawyer]

Don't know if this was posted (or anyone else saw it), but lol:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/04/cnn-national-poll-dead-heat-between-obama-and-romney/?hpt=hp_t2

/CNN

A story on the bottom of that page helped me find Ryan.

4 days ago
Politics can’t scare off Ryan from his appointed Halloween rounds

Janesville, Wisconsin (CNN) - Even in an election year, Republican vice presidential hopeful Paul Ryan stuck to a family trick-or-treat tradition.

On Wednesday, Mitt Romney's running mate held three rallies in his home state before he and wife, Janna, returned to Janesville to spend Halloween with their three children.

“We will go trick-or-treating on the same route we go every year, which is the same route I went on when I was a little guy," Ryan said earlier in Racine.

Ryan's 10-year-old daughter, Liza, donned a blue wig and dressed up as a tamer version of pop singer Katy Perry, who recently performed at a fundraiser for President Barack Obama.

Unrecognizable in a red cape and black mask, 9-year-old Charlie dressed up as the Unknown Phantom. Grim Reaper, 7-year-old Sam, included a scythe that his dad carried around so his son could collect candy.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...off-ryan-from-his-appointed-halloween-rounds/
Katy Perry almost wore Ryan on a costume . . . but he got cut-off.

 

[B-Dubs]

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

That would be the greatest salty tears of all.

 

[Godslay]

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

Those are the best kind, all that concentrated salty goodness.

 

[johnsmith]

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

Something along the lines of "you people don't deserve me as your president"

 

[apana]

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

Lets see, I don't think Romney is a bad guy. I think his supporters are the ones who are going to be bitter. To fair though most of the people on NeoGAF would be just as bitter if Romney won.

 

[Tendo]

Depending on how close things are in states with GOP governors, I wouldn't be surprised if he refused to concede until multiple recounts are done.

I agree - I could see this stretching out for awhile.

 

[ryutaro's mama]

Keep the lines long.

Isn't it funny how CNN and Fox happen to not cover the voter suppression shit happening in FL?

That's a big fucking deal.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Took me a while to find this from Oct. 20:

It also adjusts the Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio slightly downward for Mr. Obama — but Public Policy Polling has lost most of the strong Democratic lean that it had earlier in the cycle, and it has even been on Mr. Romney’s side of the consensus in a few states like Iowa and New Hampshire. We now calculate their house effect as being only about half a percentage point in favor of Mr. Obama.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...-in-forecast-but-volatility-ahead/#more-36417


(The graph with the 3 point house effect was from mid June.)

 

[Tendo]

Something along the lines of "you people don't deserve me as your president"

I do expect something like this. "What is wrong with you? I would have saved this country!" He comes off as so pouty I'm looking forward to it.

I just hope it happens. The next 48 hours I'm going to be a mess.

 

[ivysaur12]

Another take on house effects..

Oh Zogby you so silly.

Well damn.

 

[StopMakingSense]

Something along the lines of "you people don't deserve me as your president"

"And here I was, about to tell you my 5-point plan!"

 

[AniHawk]

romney won't come across like a jerk in a concession speech. he'll need people on his side for when he runs again in 2016.

 

[B-Dubs]

I do expect something like this. "What is wrong with you? I would have saved this country!" He comes off as so pouty I'm looking forward to it.

I just hope it happens. The next 48 hours I'm going to be a mess.

Maybe he'll finally tell us his five point plan!

 

[Randolph Freelander]

I expect that the concession speech will be gracious, as they typically are. And if somehow the models are wrong and Obama loses, I expect the same.

 

[airmangataosenai]

I expect the most bitter, divisive, entitled speech we've ever heard.

I'm not sure. On the one hand he cares about his public image, on the other he'll of just wasted 7 years of his life and potentially tens of millions of dollars of his own money over that same span.

 

[djplaeskool]

This picture deserves a Pulitzer.

 

[Forever]

Keep the lines long.

We all know that Rick Scott is a cunt, we'll see what happens.

I live 30 minutes south of there

Weather has been nice for several days now.

I'm going to the pool right now.

 

[Tamanon]

Goddamn multiple threads.

 

[AniHawk]

Goddamn multiple threads.

there's going to be an ot6 soon, too!

 

[StopMakingSense]

there's going to be an ot6 soon, too!

No, he posted a football thing. I SAW IT.