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PolliGaf 2012 |OT5| Big Bird, Binders, Bayonets, Bad News and Benghazi

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G

gcubed

Member
That 538 image has me worried that everyone is purposefully over sampling Dems. I mean WE are all excited but I don't know if that translates well enough to the general public to constitute all the pollsters using 2008 turnout models
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
gcubed said:
That 538 image has me worried that everyone is purposefully over sampling Dems. I mean WE are all excited but I don't know if that translates well enough to the general public to constitute all the pollsters using 2008 turnout models
Click to expand...

We don't need to be at 2008 levels; we just need to be semi-near 2008 levels. Demographic changes - even over "just" the past four years will help us the rest of the way.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
gcubed said:
That 538 image has me worried that everyone is purposefully over sampling Dems. I mean WE are all excited but I don't know if that translates well enough to the general public to constitute all the pollsters using 2008 turnout models
Click to expand...
It concerns me that we're placing so much emphasis on these so-called "polls."
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Oblivion said:
Okay, I'm back to Diablos-mode:

http://maddowblog.msnbc.com/_news/2012/11/04/14922984-ohios-husted-launches-11th-hour-scheme?lite

D:
Click to expand...

bbshockedattuco.gif
 
K

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Honestly, I imagine Romney's concession would focus on a damage control spin like "This is just the beginning. We've shown what's best for America, and we've seen the response". However weak and absurd that may look. Rombot is a mouthpiece for the mission. I agree that the result of an Obama win will just drive the right to Right Harder. Their problem is that their base is predicated on fear and paranoia, they've married themselves too much to social and ideological themes.

If/when Obama wins, I suspect it'll take another GOP loss in 2016 for the party to truly begin to break up and leave the culture war crazies, and the ignorant extremist paranoiacs and conspiracy theorist behind. The thing is, we don't know what economic and global conditions will be then; I'd guess a reforming GOP would look for whatever economic issues it can build a solid foundation on at the time.

If the GOP stays locked out until 2024, I'm not sure it'll even exist at that point. Too many of the old people will be dead.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
gcubed said:
That 538 image has me worried that everyone is purposefully over sampling Dems. I mean WE are all excited but I don't know if that translates well enough to the general public to constitute all the pollsters using 2008 turnout models
Click to expand...

Jesus christ. The image is out of date, people. Read the thread or something. Damn illiterate democrats.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
metalslimer said:
It'll be interesting to hear the possible concession speech from Romney.
Click to expand...
"My real name is Barack Hussein Obama, and I am honored to become the next president of the United States. This has always been my name and I am certain you'll find my previous positions on my name very consistent"
 
A

Angry Grimace

Two cannibals are eating a clown. One turns to the other and says "does something taste funny to you?"
Dick Morris now officially endorsing unskewing on Fox News. He says all the polls oversample Democrats and he predicts Romney winning every swing state plus Pennsylvania.
 
M

Mike M

Nick N
I second the notion that Romney's concession will be gracious. He'll congratulate the president, thank everyone for their hard work and support, and while he doesn't agree with the choice, the American people have spoken, blah blah blah...
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Kaijima said:
Honestly, I imagine Romney's concession would focus on a damage control spin like "This is just the beginning. We've shown what's best for America, and we've seen the response". However weak and absurd that may look. Rombot is a mouthpiece for the mission. I agree that the result of an Obama win will just drive the right to Right Harder. Their problem is that their base is predicated on fear and paranoia, they've married themselves too much to social and ideological themes.

If/when Obama wins, I suspect it'll take another GOP loss in 2016 for the party to truly begin to break up and leave the culture war crazies, and the ignorant extremist paranoiacs and conspiracy theorist behind. The thing is, we don't know what economic and global conditions will be then; I'd guess a reforming GOP would look for whatever economic issues it can build a solid foundation on at the time.

If the GOP stays locked out until 2024, I'm not sure it'll even exist at that point. Too many of the old people will be dead.
Click to expand...

I keep on reminding my older Republican relatives:
"every four years, the electorate gets about 3 or 4% less white. Your party is driving at top speed towards a brick wall. You will have to change, or you're destined to go the way of the Whigs."

It scares the absolute shit out of them. They're losing "their" country.

StopMakingSense said:
Come on PPP, one more poll and I swear I'll get back to work!
Click to expand...
I gave-up. They know I'll be useless, so I don't work for the next few days. Haha..
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
i_am_not_jon_ames said:
Wow. Even George Will is drinking the Kool Aid.
Click to expand...

George Will is a dumbass, along with almost anyone else who thinks Romney is going to win at this point.

No October surprise, along with Obama looking presidential for Hurricane Sandy did any glimmer of Romney's hopes in.

I have said as much, but a Romney win at this point would be funnier to me than an Obama one, since it would forever inject itself into any statistical analysis or polls discussion.

But obviously, unless some magic 2004-2008 version of Romney appeared, the next 4 years would suckkkkkkk.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Mike M said:
I second the notion that Romney's concession will be gracious. He'll congratulate the president, thank everyone for their hard work and support, and while he doesn't agree with the choice, the American people have spoken, blah blah blah...
Click to expand...
romney-serious-hand-mitt-cropped-proto-custom_28.jpg


"The American people have spoken. I urge my fellow Republicans in Congress to work with the President in enacting a liberal agenda that brings us back to the prosperity we enjoyed under the Clinton administration."

shocked-crowd-737736.jpg


paul_ryan2012-med-wide1.jpg


ap_romney_laughing_nt_120306_wblog.jpg


"Nah, I'm yanking ya. Be as big of dicks as you can be."
 
B

Bowdz

Member
GregLombardi said:
He doesn't need electoral votes. He just needs to suppress votes in OH and FL like his minions are currently doing.

Kind of scary. We'll see what the 11th hour brings!
Click to expand...

And yet even if Obama loses OH and FL and holds IA, NV, CO, and NH (which all look incredibly likely), Obama still wins. Hell, Obama could lose OH, FL, CO, and IA and still win if he held NV, NH, and VA.

Also, it is worth pointing out again that Obama and his campaign are probably acutely aware oh the shananigans that Husted and Scott are trying to pull and will do every thing in their power (aka the federal government) to stop it.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
romney-serious-hand-mitt-cropped-proto-custom_28.jpg


"The American people have spoken. I urge my fellow Republicans in Congress to work with the President in enacting a liberal agenda that brings us back to the prosperity we enjoyed under the Clinton administration."

shocked-crowd-737736.jpg


paul_ryan2012-med-wide1.jpg


ap_romney_laughing_nt_120306_wblog.jpg


"Nah, I'm yanking ya. Be as big of dicks as you can be."
Click to expand...

*thumbs-up for use of a famous image from The Producers*
 
A

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Puddles said:
I wrote up a post on why I endorse Barack Obama for a second term.

Read it; I think I did pretty well with this. It might even be better than a few endorsements that people got paid to write.
Click to expand...

I think what you wrote is probably all valid, but nothing about it would make me want to read it. We all know the reasons why people should vote for Obama over Romney (just like we all know in our hearts why people SHOULD, but never will vote for Jill Stein) and that is enough for me. Unless you are talking about something outside of the obvious (marriage equality, repeal DADT, stimulus, push for higher taxes, etc.) it would be better suited to be distributed as an op-ed to your local paper (or papers). I used to write blurbs for the editorials page every once in a while and a lot of times they would get published.
 
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