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[AlteredBeast]

We're literally fighting over every last blasted inch of Florida down here. Don't count us out yet.

LOL. I love this boots on the ground mantra. I give Obama a 50/50 shot in Florida. It won't be 2000 all over again, but it is going to close.

 

[gcubed]

If Obama wins, the real damage the crappy first debate wrought was convincing the RNC that they could win the presidency and blowing all of their SuperPAC funds on Romney instead of the Senate races.

this, it actually probably helped downticket races by Romney being competitive.

 

[PhoenixDark]

Who was projecting Dems would take the House after the DNC?

He's misquoting something. Winning ten seats was almost guaranteed before the first debate, but now dems would be lucky to win five.

Remember, debates don't matter

 

[AlteredBeast]

Aaron Strife probably. Though to be fair he's the anti-diablos.

Exactly. Recall 2010 races again.

 

[ivysaur12]

If Obama wins, the real damage the crappy first debate wrought was convincing the RNC that they could win the presidency and blowing all of their SuperPAC funds on Romney instead of the Senate races.

True, but not putting enough money into GOTV operations for the House in traditionally non-competitive presidential states is the real kicker.

 

[GregLombardi]

Does anyone have a status update on whether that stupid legal maneuver is going to court today?

 

[el retorno]

He's misquoting something. Winning ten seats was almost guaranteed before the first debate, but now dems would be lucky to win five.

Remember, debates don't matter

They don't really.

 

[PhoenixDark]

True, but not putting enough money into GOTV operations for the House in traditionally non-competitive presidential states is the real kicker.

Blame that on Obama's near Nixon 1972 monopoly of party resources.

 

[Rocket Scientist]

So guys how about that Obama tape? Totally changed the course of the election man. What would we have done without it man. Might have voted for him man. So glad we're voting romney instead dude. Totally.

 

[Jadedx]

We're literally fighting over every last blasted inch of Florida down here. Don't count us out yet.

Florida will go blue in 2012, these voter suppression efforts are just making dems want to vote more, especially black and latin voters.


BTW here is my final prediction.
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bkki

 

[Tim-E]

Remember, debates don't matter

Obama is projected to win despite this debate performance. They don't matter.

 

[ivysaur12]

You know what would be the ICING on the cake?

If the good guys go 4 for 4 on gay marriage, and then the SCOTUS doesn't take up the Prop 8 case on the 20th (only taking up the DOMA cases), legalizing gay marriage in California.

It would end what looks like a fantastic month.

 

[el retorno]

You know what would be the ICING on the cake?

If the good guys go 4 for 4 on gay marriage, and then the SCOTUS doesn't take up the Prop 8 case on the 20th (only taking up the DOMA cases), legalizing gay marriage in everywhere.

It would end what looks like a fantastic month.

fixed

 

[cartoon_soldier]

@MarcACaputo: Day before Election Day FL outlook: 4.5 MILLION have voted, Ds lead Rs by 167,000 ballots http://bit.ly/Sts8pH

State of Race in FL

 

[richiek]

Who was projecting Dems would take the House after the DNC?

These guys.

 

[ivysaur12]

fixed

Nope. Perry was narrowly decided by the 9th circuit to only affect those in California (and potentially other states that would legalize gay marriage and then un-legalize it like in New Hampshire or in Iowa). They're not expected to grant it cert, which would then legalize gay marriage again, but only in CA.

 

[AlteredBeast]

State of Race in FL

Wow, in that case, I could see Romney winning FL by 2% or more. election day voting usually skews heavily for R right?

 

[el retorno]

Nope. Perry was narrowly decided by the 9th circuit to only affect those in California (and potentially other states that would legalize gay marriage and then un-legalize it like in New Hampshire or in Iowa). They're not expected to grant it cert, which would then legalize gay marriage again, but only in CA.

Why couldn't they do the same as the district court?

 

[airmangataosenai]

To avoid a recall in Florida, the winner there will probably need around 45,000 votes or better over the challenger. Seems doable.

 

[Magni]

The Blaze has an article on people predicting an Obama victory, love the comments.

I love their little map.. Gives Ohio/Nv/NH to Obama but still calls NC/Co and Fl tossups. Not biased ar all! They will be very surprised come Wed. Morning!

(talking about YouGov's predictions)

Also, next OT title suggestions:

Elections have a liberal bias
Elections oversample Democrats
Elections are skewed towards Democrats

 

[Effect]

Wow, in that case, I could see Romney winning FL by 2% or more. election day voting usually skews heavily for R right?

Don't think so. Also it's suppose to rain tomorrow in north Florida which is suppose to depress turn out (so they say) for some older voters and that's a heavy republican area.

 

[XenodudeX]

election day voting usually skews heavily for R right?

Uh. No?

 

[gcubed]

Wow, in that case, I could see Romney winning FL by 2% or more. election day voting usually skews heavily for R right?

in some areas. FL isn't comparable to say, Ohio or Iowa early voting turnout since early voting is also heavily used by retired folks there. Also, early voting was, at the very least, cut in half this year, so its hard to pull out numbers in comparison to 2008. You would hope for as much of a lead as possible in EV though

 

[ivysaur12]

Why couldn't they do the same as the district court?

They're not expected to grant the case cert because it's too controversial. If they don't, then it's legalized in California again.

Theoretically, they could take the case up and then rule in favor of marriage equality for the entire country, but it's likely they won't. What they're most likely to do is grant the DOMA cases cert and rule in favor of those, allowing married gay couples to receive the normal tax benefits of marriage.

 

[Angry Grimace]

Nope. Perry was narrowly decided by the 9th circuit to only affect those in California (and potentially other states that would legalize gay marriage and then un-legalize it like in New Hampshire or in Iowa). They're not expected to grant it cert, which would then legalize gay marriage again, but only in CA.

So I imagine then its a punt on the issue because a SCOTUS ruling saying state laws banning Gay Marriage violates equal protection would make it legal throughout the country. The other problem is that I imagine that Roberts and Kennedy's positions on such a law are pretty unclear.

 

[Aylinato]

Just got polled in Michigan. +1 for Obama

 

[el retorno]

The Blaze has an article on people predicting an Obama victory, love the comments.

(talking about YouGov's predictions)

Also, next OT title suggestions:

Elections have a liberal bias
Elections oversample Democrats
Elections are skewed towards Democrats

Elections are voter fraud

 

[PhoenixDark]

Just got polled in Michigan. +1 for Obama

Ha I got polled yesterday. You voting for dat bridge?

 

[ivysaur12]

So I imagine then its a punt on the issue because a SCOTUS ruling saying state laws banning Gay Marriage violates equal protection would make it legal throughout the country. The other problem is that I imagine that Roberts and Kennedy's positions on such a law are pretty unclear.

No, because:

Originally, the district court said that gay marriage violated the equal protection clause and was VERY broad. When it was brought to the 9th circuit, it was ruled extremely narrowly, saying that it only affected those in California because an enumerated right of a minority was then taken away by a majority. If it wasn't granted cert by the SCOTUS, it would ONLY affect California. The 9th circuit didn't even really touch the equal protection clause because they (smartly) knew this was a possibility.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

The Blaze has an article on people predicting an Obama victory, love the comments.

(talking about YouGov's predictions)

Also, next OT title suggestions:

Elections have a liberal bias
Elections oversample Democrats
Elections are skewed towards Democrats

If Obama wins, I vote for this one.

 

[AlteredBeast]

in some areas. FL isn't comparable to say, Ohio or Iowa early voting turnout since early voting is also heavily used by retired folks there. Also, early voting was, at the very least, cut in half this year, so its hard to pull out numbers in comparison to 2008. You would hope for as much of a lead as possible in EV though

Thanks for the real response instead of the sour one above.

 

[Cloudy]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

Larry Sabato's final map. I bet he won't be invited on Fox today. I don't appreciate this meme of Sandy boosting Obama though.

PS: I think he's wrong about VA.

 

[jbug617]

Obama and Romney will be interviewed at halftime tonight during MNF.

 

[el retorno]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

Larry Sabato's final map. I bet he won't be invited on Fox today. I don't appreciate this meme of Sandy boosting Obama though

Bams could lose PA and still win lol

 

[AlteredBeast]

I could see that map being the accurate one +/- Florida.

 

[Mgoblue201]

According to the election site of George Mason, the early voting situation in Florida is very similar to what it was in 2008.

2008 party registration:

Dem 45.6%
Rep 37.3%
No/Oth 17.1%

2012 party registration:

Dem 42.9%
Rep 39.1%
None/Oth 18.0%

EV numbers are up about 100,000 overall.

Edit: Edited the more accurate information in.

 

[Cloudy]

I could see that map being the accurate one +/- Florida.

I think VA is more likely than FL or even CO. Surprising that a political expert in VA doesn't see it that way

 

[el retorno]

According to the election site of George Mason, the early voting situation in Florida is very similar to what it was in 2008.

2008 party registration:

Dem 42.1%
Rep 39.4%
None/Oth 18.5%

2012 party registration:

Dem 42.9%
Rep 39.1%
None/Oth 18.0%

With about the same number of people voting early, assuming that 2012 turnout mimics 2008 turnout.

I got faith.

 

[reggieandTFE]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

Larry Sabato's final map. I bet he won't be invited on Fox today. I don't appreciate this meme of Sandy boosting Obama though.

PS: I think he's wrong about VA.

I think that look pretty close. For some reason, I'm getting a feeling NH might go Romney, however. The This American Life episode from the weekend has me spooked.

 

[ErasureAcer]

Obama speaking now on Cspan.org

 

[el retorno]

Voting begins in 12 hours :-0

 

[Gucci Messiah]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

Larry Sabato's final map. I bet he won't be invited on Fox today. I don't appreciate this meme of Sandy boosting Obama though.

PS: I think he's wrong about VA.

Thanks for this

 

[AlteredBeast]

I think VA is more likely than FL or even CO. Surprising that a political expert in VA doesn't see it that way

True, but I think Romney gets one or the other.

 

[Effect]

Question. Come tomorrow could voting centers ignore closing times and the governor and stay open if there are tons of people still outside if he refuses to extend hours? Especially if it was done by multiple locations and counties? Or would those votes be tossed out?

 

[PhoenixDark]

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/projection-obama-will-likely-win-second-term/

Larry Sabato's final map. I bet he won't be invited on Fox today. I don't appreciate this meme of Sandy boosting Obama though.

PS: I think he's wrong about VA.

IMO this is the only viable Obama victory map. Not a fan of his Sandy talk but overall the map is believable. I think CO going blue could be a stretch (PPP seems to be skewing Obama's margins in multiple states) but considering dems won there in 2010, I can see Obama winning the state tomorrow

I'll have my final map later today.

 

[Kusagari]

I have more faith in VA at this point than Ohio, because of all the suppression nonsense.

 

[syllogism]

According to the election site of George Mason, the early voting situation in Florida is very similar to what it was in 2008.

2008 party registration:

Dem 42.1%
Rep 39.4%
None/Oth 18.5%

2012 party registration:

Dem 42.9%
Rep 39.1%
None/Oth 18.0%

With about the same number of people voting early, assuming that 2012 turnout mimics 2008 turnout.

The layout is confusing, but both of those are actually 2012 figues.

2008 figures can be found here and show a much bigger dem advantage

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

 

[gcubed]

Thanks for the real response instead of the sour one above.

Mgoblue laid it out a bit better... i didn't take the time to dig up 2008 numbers.

According to the election site of George Mason, the early voting situation in Florida is very similar to what it was in 2008.

2008 party registration:

Dem 42.1%
Rep 39.4%
None/Oth 18.5%

2012 party registration:

Dem 42.9%
Rep 39.1%
None/Oth 18.0%

With about the same number of people voting early, assuming that 2012 turnout mimics 2008 turnout.

 

[Gucci Messiah]

Question. Come tomorrow could voting centers ignore closing times and the governor and stay open if there are tons of people still outside if he refuses to extend hours? Especially if it was done by multiple locations and counties? Or would those votes be tossed out?

I would imagine they would be tossed. What is the point of rules if they can be broken with no consequences?

Edit: overlooked the part where you said they were already in line. I think they have to let you vote if you are in line by the time your center closes.

 

[BobTheFork]

The Blaze has an article on people predicting an Obama victory, love the comments.

(talking about YouGov's predictions)

Also, next OT title suggestions:

Elections have a liberal bias
Elections oversample Democrats
Elections are skewed towards Democrats

I've always liked 'Reality has a liberal bias"